Cheltenham - Supreme

OK first things first given all the specials on in the bookies for the first race of the festival the most important thing here is to try and get as much money in play as possible. Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets if Cue Card wins (€200 max) - which is currently rated about a 28% chance. Bruce Betting are offering 3/1 on Cue Card offering a straight up 14% edge or you can arb it and take the cash (€500max).

A quick preview of the horses below along with my probable strategy - there won't be any specific tips on this race as I will be using a scattergun approach to try to maximise value but it will be hard to put yourself in a position where you have a negative expectation on this race.

Cue Card has an official rating of 159 (3lbs higher than Dunguib 4/5f was last year) has raced around Cheltenham 3 times with 2 wins and a second. His one defeat was by 4 1/2Ls to Menorah last years winner off level weights. Worth bearing in mind CC was 4 at the time and Menorah was 5, if it was the supreme at those ages he would have been receiving an 8lb allowance. Looks like he can leave the Bumpers winner hoodoo well behind and deliver the good here. IF there was no PP offer I would probably be putting him up as a bet.

Spirit Son looked awesome the last day sauntering away with a listed race. Hasn't been tested yet against the best but a good turn of foot and the bookies are right to have him as the main danger to CC.

Sprinter Sacre is a chaser in waiting - won't disgrace himself here but stables second string and I wouldn't be too keen on getting involved.

Recession Proof like Get Me out of Here (2nd last year) is coming off the back of winning the Totesport Trophy. Not sure he is quite up to that standard but probably not a million miles away. On a pure line of form through Bothy and Menorah he has about 26lbs to find with Cue Card. Don't think there will be quite that much between them but he'll have to up his game to get involved in the finish here.

Al Ferof was 2nd in the Bumper behind Cue Card last year and although he's had a good season he hasn't impressed as much. Fell at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut against some rag bag opposition and then came third when racing a bit keenly (apparently) in the fog at Newbury over Christmas. 2 straightforward wins since including the ill-fated race in Newbury a few weeks back involving the electrocution of some of his competitors - tbh he probably needs one or 2 of these to drop dead to win this but it is worth noting he is trained by Nicholls, ridden by Ruby (probably) runs in Nolands colours - I would be surprised if these factors aren't enough to see him shorten up on the day and so there are worse plans than having a back to lay. Not the worst option but has a bit to find.

Zaidpour is a bit of a mystery to me. I'll gladly forgive him losing on the heavy ground over Christmas and he definitely will be better on the good ground we are likely to see at Cheltenham. But watching back the video of his race the last day in Leopardstown I'm just a bit worried that he had quite a hard race the last day. He came under pressure turning in but instead of minding him Townend drove him out all the way to the line to get second. Shot from the Hip who also runs in this race came third that day but I thought his jockey took a bit more care of him once he realised he was never getting to the winner. Shot from the Hip could be the joker in the pack here althoughI fancy ZP to recover and show himself the best of the Irish. Also unless there is word for JP's horse in Queens the night before the Irish money should be enough to shorten up ZP on track a litttle on the day.


I will be looking to have Cue Card, Spirit Son and Zaidpour as winners for me in this race and prob try to limit the downside on Shot from the Hip but like I said make sure you get plenty of money in play no matter what you do.

Hope to preview the Arkle in the next day or 2 and will actually be back to proper tipping on that one!