The blog is back...which can only mean one thing - it's nearly festival time again! Just a few quick thoughts on Tuesdays racing to get us started. I guess we might as well start at the start:

Supreme Novices:
All the talk here has been about JP's 2. Not hard to see why My Tent or Yours is top of the market after crushing the Betfair Hurdle off 148. That win left him with a lot of nasty stats to overcome but a fair bit better than most of horses that have previously tried this route to Supreme glory. Could have gone off second fav if he had gone for the Champion. A lot of respect for this guy but at 7/4 and the weight of history some some pretty decent horses against him I'll pass on him scaling the same heights as the betfair again so quickly.
Less deserving of his place at the top of the market is Jezki...don't get me wrong I think the Royal Bond is probably the strongest piece of Irish form to go off but 5/1? Really? Wasn't exactly great in the bumper last year and although he looked like getting into contention at the bottom of the hill he never looked particularly happy. Hasn't done anythin wrong over hurdles with 4 good wins but on his best form he was 1 1/2ls better than Champagne Fever getting 3lbs. Champagne Fever won the bumper last year never having been headed from the tape. This seems to be his standard operating procedure and I am assume he will go off in front to try and gallop them into submission again. At least we don't need to worry about him not liking racing in a crowd and know he can run downhill at speed without getting unbalanced - 2 key things in a supreme. (17 of the last 21 winners had previous won a race with 14 or more winners and everyone knows how important course form is ie the ability to run up AND down hills). Good ground would be needed to see him at his best and give him a chance to front-run without getting collared up the hill. He is more than 3 times the price of Jezki at 16s which looks wrong but still couldn't back him with rain and frost forecast.
One horse that will enjoy it if it comes up soft is Melodic Rendevous who comes with pretty strong form having taken down the G1 Tolworth before smashing the G2 winner Puffin Billy the next time out but think unless we get a downpour he'll find a couple too pacey and classy for him here.
Another horse who had been making hay in the mud (if thats possible) is Un Atout who could be anything, but a chaser in the making I would be more interested in backing him for the 2014 Arkle than this years Supreme especially at 7/1.

So who does that leave us with... a horse with course form and the second highest rating in the field. A horse that has beaten last years Supreme and Triumph hurdle winners already this year and yet is still only 4th favourite - Dodging Bullets @9/1 Won't be popular with the trend boys as he breaks pretty much every trend that will be quoted between now and next Tuesday although most of them I am happy to disregard the one worry is he hasn't raced since coming 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle (a piece of form that puts him well clear of everything but MTOY). Would like to have seen him have a spin around a track in Feb but Nicholls is charge and if any man knows how to get him there right its him. The only race DB didn't win at Cheltenham was last seasons Triumph where he came a close fourth not quite making it up the hill. He has had a breathing op since then which should help. Think the commentator mentioned him once in that race before the bottom of the hill before he arrived on the scene to challenge. With CF racing like a startled hare out the front he's sure to get the pace he like and come like a train to challenge late. What better way to start the festival than dodging a bullet when the short priced 'certainty' gets turned over.

1.5pts e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1

Arkle:
' He seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged' - that is what I had to say about Simonsig in last years preview about 12 hours before he put in one of the performances of the festival to win the Neptune by 7Ls. You would think that I would have learned my lesson at this stage given he then started his chasing career with 3 wins for a combined winning distance of 99Ls .....but I just can't bring myself to bet this guy at 4/6 in comfortably his toughest test to date. I think it might be I prefer to see a horse get into a fight and win before getting stuck in a short odds in a proper G1. So if not him then who? Not exactly like there is much strength in depth here. You would think the logical place would be last years champion hurdle second who has 3 similarly easy chase wins so far this season but I prefer to go for a horse who has actually had to race something other than Aunt Sally's, who has won 2 genuine G1 chases and has had his jumping tested to the limits already (and broken) - Arvikka Legionnaire knows what it takes to win a battle having overcome Dedigout and Oscars Wells previously and would probably have accounted for the useful Beneficient if standing up in his last race. Didn't give him the credit he deserved when he beat Dedigout thinking Russell had let him steal a soft lead but he's proved himself since then. When Simonsig wins and i'm drying my eyes with some more losing betting slips at least I can console myself with the knowledge that at least this time SImonsig will know he's been in a race

Arvika Legionaire 1 pt e/w @8/1

Champion Hurdle:

"Beauty is truth, truth beauty," – that is all

Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know

 That was what Keats had to say when asked about his thoughts on Hurricane Fly's chances of regaining his champion hurdle crown although how much faith you can put in the opinion of an opiate fiend is questionable especially when he obviously hasn't heard of Paddy Powers money back special. Let's not beat around the bush here - Hurricane Fly is beautiful, probably the best hurdler since the mighty Istabraq and has a real chance to be only the 2nd horse to regain his Champion Hurdle crown. Looks a lot better now than he did last yearwhen he was never right (and still managed 3rd) and with a proper campaign behind he will be going into this fighting fit. However given we will get our money back for opposing him I can't not have a chunk on Zarkander. (In fairness I would have backed him regardless having gotten on at 6s before his prep run but will be sizing up now!) Zarkander wasn't right last season either but still came 4th despite only being a 5 yo. Has done nothing wrong this year. Won the Triumph here as a 4yo and expecting big things here. If you are doing big size here I probably like keeping Grandouet onside as well but if you just want 1 bet then

2pts Zarkander

Mares Hurdle:
Having despaired with Keats crazed ramblings I decided to turn to Shakespeare for some inspiration on this one and he gave some pretty sage advice as could be expected:

"He's mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health,
a boy's love, or a whore's oath."

Every year after 10 months Quevega re-emerges from the mists of Kildare to win 2 graded races  at miniscule odds without any prep race and every year as everyone else empties and then reloads their wheel-barrows proclaiming her to be the surest bet since they got that broomcupboard  out in Santry for only 600k I try to stand firm and decry their insanity for what it is, and every year I gradually get poorer and they get richer and more cocky...well I guess part of Cheltenham is the traditions so here goes my attempts to topple the queen of the Cotswolds!

Actually only 1 horse i'm going to bother mentioning here because with the honourable exception of Zuzka who probably won't run here the rest of these would struggle to win a claimer in Kilbeggan. Une Artiste is a different kettle of fish though. A festival winner last year in the Fred Winter and winner of 2 listed races so far this term this is a proper filly. If Willy S is right and anything goes wrong with the fav we will be on to a good one here.

2pts ew Une Artiste.

Right thats me done for tonight - don't worry I haven't forgotten everyone's favourite ATM the cross country chase but that will have to wait til issue 2 (probably Sunday)