Well hope everyone has a good warchest set aside for 4 days battle. Hopefully this time tomorrow the satchel men will already be beating their retreat. Most of the main ones for tomorrow are covered already (only 7 runners takes some of the value from backing Arvika). Ruby's decision to ride Champagne fever and WH decision to pay 5 places have created even more value for us since then so hopefully people generousity continues for the whole week.
Just a quick disclaimer that handicap are not my strongest suit and I don't spend as much time researching here as on the other races. I have a few key trends I follow and some rules of thumb to try to limit the amount of horses I have to look at as much as possible so will in general be advising smaller stakes here.
In the JLT Chase just by looking at the age (7-10) and weight profile (<10st 11lbs="" 14="" 1lb="" 2="" a="" already="" and="" are="" ba="" bad="" be="" been="" br="" came="" can="" contenders.="" course="" doesn="" down="" eliminate="" enough="" for="" fruity="" get="" ground="" have="" he="" heavily="" here="" hopefully="" horses="" improve="" it="" last="" like="" likes="" loch="" lower="" o="" of="" off="" once="" ooney.="" ooney="" options.="" or="" quickly="" raced="" rest="" scan="" season="" second="" seem="" should="" t="" that="" the="" this.="" this="" to="" too="" we="" win="" worry="" year="">
0.75pts e/w Fruity O'Rooney 11/1
The one handicap I really like though is the cross country and it sets itself up nicely with the bare 16 runners. The answer I seem to find this year is not the one I thought it would be though. Generally you want to be wary of anything without course form, generally want to side with the Irish and if possible Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry. You would think that this would naturally lead me to Arabella Boy who has all the right connections and 2 wins in Punchestowns Cross Countrys and was going well here when falling over the winter but hard to justify backing AB when in my mind Bostons Angel is fairly closely matched with that one and I actually think in the near 4mile slog BA will get the better of Nina's mount. If someone offers me tens on him in the morning I won't say no. But for me the one I can't get away from is Any Currency. A classy animal that should have won more in his career he has never raced over this course before but Keighley did have him out schooling over these fences last week and was impressed with how he handled them. At 14/1 I'm willing to take my chances on him.
1pt ew Any Currency 14/1
(0.5pts ew Bostons Angel at 10s or better)
The last race is one that is hard to get interested in although it is quite a compact handicap. The favourite is Colour Squadron at 6/1 who was beaten 17Ls by Ohio Gold off level weights on soft ground back in January. Today he is carrying 5lbs less and is 4 times the price - thats good enough for me to have a nibble
0.5pts e/w Ohio Gold
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