3 days in and a world away from 2.30 on Tuesday. Save to say after today that the Mullins yard is in fine form afterall so back to the drawing board to try to salvage something from the embers of this years festival.
Triumph:
Best not to complicate this one. Seems likes a straightforward match up here between the best of the English Defi du Seuil and the Irish who given there still isnt a standout candidate between the top 3 in the market it would suggest they are probably the weaker of the 2 sides. Defi and done everything asked easily and impressively and no reason he shouldnt come out on top here again with more asked of him. Easy start backing the clear class of the field
1.5pts Defi du Seuil 9/4
Couty Hurdle:
Very nearly got suckered in here by Mick Jazz of his race v Labaik but one swallow does not a summer make and looking through the rest of his form it is hard to argue he is thrown in here and justifies being favourite. Hard to find fault with North Hill Harvey who won a decent Greatwood here back in November and I was very close to backing him however a young horse that has been progressing nicely over the season and may just be the surprise package here is Creivehill. Decent run the last day behind Neon Wolf and at 33/1 is worth a speculative punt.
.75pts ew Creivehill
Albert Bartlett:
Strange lineup here with a couple of those at the top of the market more suited to the JLT than 3m at this point in their careers. Wholestone has a course and distance win but that form hasnt really been franked this week. Augusta Kate is coming off a fall which is a worry. Probably the only really solid option is in the form of The Worlds End who won a solid G2 over 2m7f the last day and he gets a confident vote here to put some of these talking horses in their place.
2pts e/w The Worlds End 10/1
Gold Cup:
The big one. Djackadam is favourite now and probably a worthy one given he has finally had the perfect preparation and at 8 should be in his peak. That said despite coming 2nd in 2 Gold Cups the other 2 times he's visited the track he's landed on his face trying to jump the downhill fences. Thats a pretty big negative in my book and enough to make me swerve him at 3/1. Outlander has never had the best of times in the Cotswolds and at 11 my old favourite Cue Card is probably just pushing on a little. Native River is another I dont fully trust to complete the course and the value is probably with the outsider Bristol de Mai who was punted into favourite against Native River the last day before being found to not be right post race. A solid second last year to the mecurial Black Hercules he could end up having a big say in a below par running of the race.
1pt ew Bristol de Mai 33/1
Foxhunters:
On the Fringe had a great prep for this race the last day and watching it at the time I assumed he would be unopposable come the festival. That said give a man long enough to think about anything and he'll start thinking himself into trouble and with half of Munster singing the praises of some beast called Sweet as a Nut who sluiced in at Limerick over Christmas I've found it too hard to the resist the sirens song and am now opposing one of the sure things of the weeks by siding against OTF. It's Paddy's day though so we can look back on this race with hindsight afterwards and blames it on the drink!
1pt ew Sweet as a Nut 22/1
Martin Pipe:
A mess of a race and the only proper solid form I can find is Coo Star Sivola's 3rd in last years Fred Winter. Solid form all year despite being a little disappointing here on trials day. If you have to have a bet thats the best advice I can give you.
0.5pts ew Coo Star Sivola 10/1
Grand Annual:
If we are still trying to get out by now hopefully someone has already had the foresight to remove your shoelaces and hide the steak knifes. Its one from either end of the betting market that appeal here with a solid favourite in Le Prezien who has won over both course and distance and looks a classy beast and a winner from last year who's lost their way a little since but comes here over a 3lb lower mark Solar Impulse. Both will be backed for small stake but I hope to be sipping champagne long before gnawing my fingernails over this result!
0.5pts ew Solar Impulse 40/1
0.75pts ew Le Prezien 11/2
Thursday, 16 March 2017
Wednesday, 15 March 2017
Time for the super sub
After a day 2 that would have put PSG to shame we are back on the redemption trail tomorrow. Fortunately it seems like the bookies seem intent on providing a few confidence restoring layups so lets crack on with the winners.
JLT:
A few weeks ago Yorkhill would have been many peoples idea of a certainty for this but a lot of flops from Closutton this week and hard to pile in at 11/8 with a few doubts hanging over the yard. Politilogue is the biggest lay of the week at 6/1 and I will be opposing him in the place market - 2 tripes to Cheltenham have seen him unseat and a 20th of 26 at the festival last year. Disko has the ideal trip but think he is a little bit flattered by his win against Our Duke the last day (who I suspect needs a proper stamina test to be seen at his best) and combined with Meades questionable festival record I can easily pass over him. Only really leaves Top Notch who has progressed nicely over the season and is coming into his own over fences now despite needing a ladder to see over most of them. A festival record of 2nd in a Triumph and 5th in a much better Champion Hurdle than this week's makes him a confident pick to finally get his win here tomorrow. Given the doubts over the others at the top of the market it is worth getting with Flying Angel to run into a place. Very solid if not spectacular and was 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year before running Yorkhill to 3 lengths at Aintree.
2pts ew Top Notch 4/1
2pts place Flying Angel 3.9
Pertemps:
Haven't spent a whole lot of time on this one but had my attention drawn to Golden Doyen by a shrewdie that has. Hard to argue with it given he has won 2/3 at the track and touched off For Good Measure in October here giving 8lbs away. Only gives away 5lbs tomorrow and is twice the price of the JP pick.
1pt ew Golden Doyen 16/1
Ryanair:
Plenty of reasons to oppose Un de Sceuax from stable form to trip or just the ground. On the flip side its hard to see Empire of Dirt not being punted into favourite tomorrow with Elliotts horses flying and EOD touted as a Gold Cup contender after his Leopardstown run the last day. Add in a festival victory and I am nearly tempted to back him in the knowledge he WILL start shorter. That said neither would be my pick. I think EOD probably will be seen at his best over 3m plus and looking at the 2m4f specialists in the field its O'Learys other runner that jumps out. Having run both Djackadam and Sizing John to 2.5Ls on his last 2 runs its hard to argue that he should be so much bigger than EOD here (similar form vs Outlander). Josses Hill will run his race and could get some place money. Uxizandre is priced off pre-injury form and must be treated with care at such a short price.
2pt ew Sub Lieutenant 15/2
Stayers Hurdle
All about Uknowwhatimeanharry who is the class of the field. I think he will win but at around 5/4 he's not exactly value. If the Mullins horse started winning again I would definitely want to get Shaneshill onside each way but Jezki is almost certainly not the horse he was and Nichols Canyon almost certainly doesnt stay. That only really leaves Cole Harden who showed enough the last day to suggest he might go close to repeating his heroics of 2 years ago. We'll like only be collecting place money here but think its definitely the most solid bet in the race.
1pt ew Cole Harden 15/2
Mares:
Another race that revolves around the form of Willies stable and again with a few winners early on the card its easy to make a case for doing a forecast with the 2 market leaders here. Given the doubts though and the fact that Willie has 3/5 of the market leaders it probably pays to look elsewhere for the value and La Bague Au Roi (who using a strict line of form through Dusky Legend is not far off Limini in terms of ability) makes the most appeal at 9/1
2pts win La Bague Au Roi
Kim Muir:
Not one for punting more than pennies on but What's Happening is 2/2 at the course and has a reasonable jockey on board which is enough for me here.
0.5pts ew What's Happening 14/1
JLT:
A few weeks ago Yorkhill would have been many peoples idea of a certainty for this but a lot of flops from Closutton this week and hard to pile in at 11/8 with a few doubts hanging over the yard. Politilogue is the biggest lay of the week at 6/1 and I will be opposing him in the place market - 2 tripes to Cheltenham have seen him unseat and a 20th of 26 at the festival last year. Disko has the ideal trip but think he is a little bit flattered by his win against Our Duke the last day (who I suspect needs a proper stamina test to be seen at his best) and combined with Meades questionable festival record I can easily pass over him. Only really leaves Top Notch who has progressed nicely over the season and is coming into his own over fences now despite needing a ladder to see over most of them. A festival record of 2nd in a Triumph and 5th in a much better Champion Hurdle than this week's makes him a confident pick to finally get his win here tomorrow. Given the doubts over the others at the top of the market it is worth getting with Flying Angel to run into a place. Very solid if not spectacular and was 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year before running Yorkhill to 3 lengths at Aintree.
2pts ew Top Notch 4/1
2pts place Flying Angel 3.9
Pertemps:
Haven't spent a whole lot of time on this one but had my attention drawn to Golden Doyen by a shrewdie that has. Hard to argue with it given he has won 2/3 at the track and touched off For Good Measure in October here giving 8lbs away. Only gives away 5lbs tomorrow and is twice the price of the JP pick.
1pt ew Golden Doyen 16/1
Ryanair:
Plenty of reasons to oppose Un de Sceuax from stable form to trip or just the ground. On the flip side its hard to see Empire of Dirt not being punted into favourite tomorrow with Elliotts horses flying and EOD touted as a Gold Cup contender after his Leopardstown run the last day. Add in a festival victory and I am nearly tempted to back him in the knowledge he WILL start shorter. That said neither would be my pick. I think EOD probably will be seen at his best over 3m plus and looking at the 2m4f specialists in the field its O'Learys other runner that jumps out. Having run both Djackadam and Sizing John to 2.5Ls on his last 2 runs its hard to argue that he should be so much bigger than EOD here (similar form vs Outlander). Josses Hill will run his race and could get some place money. Uxizandre is priced off pre-injury form and must be treated with care at such a short price.
2pt ew Sub Lieutenant 15/2
Stayers Hurdle
All about Uknowwhatimeanharry who is the class of the field. I think he will win but at around 5/4 he's not exactly value. If the Mullins horse started winning again I would definitely want to get Shaneshill onside each way but Jezki is almost certainly not the horse he was and Nichols Canyon almost certainly doesnt stay. That only really leaves Cole Harden who showed enough the last day to suggest he might go close to repeating his heroics of 2 years ago. We'll like only be collecting place money here but think its definitely the most solid bet in the race.
1pt ew Cole Harden 15/2
Mares:
Another race that revolves around the form of Willies stable and again with a few winners early on the card its easy to make a case for doing a forecast with the 2 market leaders here. Given the doubts though and the fact that Willie has 3/5 of the market leaders it probably pays to look elsewhere for the value and La Bague Au Roi (who using a strict line of form through Dusky Legend is not far off Limini in terms of ability) makes the most appeal at 9/1
2pts win La Bague Au Roi
Kim Muir:
Not one for punting more than pennies on but What's Happening is 2/2 at the course and has a reasonable jockey on board which is enough for me here.
0.5pts ew What's Happening 14/1
Tuesday, 14 March 2017
Keeping the Wolf from the door
Not the worst of starts with Labaik finally getting his act together and a few wins and places to keep us ticking over. A trickier card for tomorrow but still a few worth getting stuck into.
Neptune:
All revolves around 1 horse for me Neon Wolf's annihilation of Elgin the last day was probably the most impressive novice display of the season and in the hands of the new master Harry Fry I would expect him to confirm himself as the next big star tomorrow. Thats not to say there is no decent opposition here although for the place money I think you need to look a big further down the betting market. Shattered Love has been very impressive in his last 2 wins and before that came out the wrong side of close affairs with the 2 best novice mares in Ireland who dominate the betting for Thursdays mares race (Airlie Beach and Let's Dance). Elliott is flying and if there is to be an upset I expect it to come from her. Willoughby Court is another who will stake a claim here but think will find a couple of these to good for him in the end.
3pts Neon Wolf 15/8
1pt e/w Shattered Love 11/1
RSA Chase:
Very tricky race and could make an arguement against every one of them. Might Bite's display at Christmas before he decided to somersault the last was comfortably the most impressive display of the season where he was about to post a time faster than Thistlecrack in the King George over course and distance. However against that is the fact that he somersaulted the last with the race at his mercy and also more importantly that in 3 visits to Cheltenham he won an egg and spoon race by a length from some overgrown Shetland pony but when faced with any decent opposition on the other 2 occasions he folded very quickly. Whisper would seem to have strong claims off his course win the last day but despite 2 solid runs in Stayers Hurdles here in the past when his build ups had not been ideal I do have the feeling that he needs a flat track to really stay 3m. Alpha des Obeux bled heavily the last day when pulled up a Leopardstown and would be taking a lot on faith to be backing at 5s here. Only really leaves Acapello Bourgouis who galloped relentlessly away from a decent field in Navan the last day when given an easy lead. Don't doubt that she'll stay and that could be enough in a field which as of yet would seem to lack a stand out star.
0.5pts e/w Acappello Bourgouis
Coral Cup:
Big field to trawl through here and a few horses near the top of the betting which are unknown quanitities to a certain extent and so maybe thrown in. However without the inside scoop on them probably better to concentrate on what we do know. Tombstone deserves favouritism given the form of last years Supreme where he was 4th ahead of several of these and he was impressive the last day when accounting for Jezki easily. That said at 4/1 in such a competitive handicap he's probably about right. The 1 horse that did stand out though was Peregrine Run who is a course and distance winner having beaten Wholestone and Western Approach (2nd and 3rd fav for Fri Albert Bartlett) well back in November. A little disappointing the last day but gets a few pound relief for that and at around 9/1 looks rock solid to me. The other horse I can't avoid backing is Leoncavello. 5th in last years Triumph having beaten Sceau Royal earlier in the year things haven't really clicked for him this year but at 66/1 I'll be kicking myself if tomorrow is the day it all falls into place when I've finally lost hope.
1.5pts ew Pergrine Run 9/1
0.5pts ew Leoncavallo 66/1
Queen Mother:
All about Douvan - streets clear and possibly an even better 2/7 bet than Altior today. Think the field is very poor and the only one improving is Fox Norton who is already better than the rest of these and should be backed w/o the fav.
2pts Fox Norton w/o Douvan 11/4
Cross Country:
Usually an Enda Bolger benefit and Cantlow the worthy favourite. That said a horse who always seems to be there or there abouts is Ballyboker Bridge - wouldnt need a huge amount of luck to make the frame so happy to have a dart at 10 times the price.
0.5pts ew Ballyboker Bridge
Fred Winter:
Paul Nicholls is never far away with this race and hard to argue with backing his runners here especially Dreamcatching however one curious piece of form does jump out at me in Poker Play. Beat Charli Parcs on his debut in France (although probably not a true run race given how bunched the finish was) and won again at Enghien before being brought to England. Disappointed on his UK debut but forgiving him that he could prove to be a lot better than the mark he's been given here. At 20/1 I'm willing to take a chance.
1pt ew Poker Play 20/1
Neptune:
All revolves around 1 horse for me Neon Wolf's annihilation of Elgin the last day was probably the most impressive novice display of the season and in the hands of the new master Harry Fry I would expect him to confirm himself as the next big star tomorrow. Thats not to say there is no decent opposition here although for the place money I think you need to look a big further down the betting market. Shattered Love has been very impressive in his last 2 wins and before that came out the wrong side of close affairs with the 2 best novice mares in Ireland who dominate the betting for Thursdays mares race (Airlie Beach and Let's Dance). Elliott is flying and if there is to be an upset I expect it to come from her. Willoughby Court is another who will stake a claim here but think will find a couple of these to good for him in the end.
3pts Neon Wolf 15/8
1pt e/w Shattered Love 11/1
RSA Chase:
Very tricky race and could make an arguement against every one of them. Might Bite's display at Christmas before he decided to somersault the last was comfortably the most impressive display of the season where he was about to post a time faster than Thistlecrack in the King George over course and distance. However against that is the fact that he somersaulted the last with the race at his mercy and also more importantly that in 3 visits to Cheltenham he won an egg and spoon race by a length from some overgrown Shetland pony but when faced with any decent opposition on the other 2 occasions he folded very quickly. Whisper would seem to have strong claims off his course win the last day but despite 2 solid runs in Stayers Hurdles here in the past when his build ups had not been ideal I do have the feeling that he needs a flat track to really stay 3m. Alpha des Obeux bled heavily the last day when pulled up a Leopardstown and would be taking a lot on faith to be backing at 5s here. Only really leaves Acapello Bourgouis who galloped relentlessly away from a decent field in Navan the last day when given an easy lead. Don't doubt that she'll stay and that could be enough in a field which as of yet would seem to lack a stand out star.
0.5pts e/w Acappello Bourgouis
Coral Cup:
Big field to trawl through here and a few horses near the top of the betting which are unknown quanitities to a certain extent and so maybe thrown in. However without the inside scoop on them probably better to concentrate on what we do know. Tombstone deserves favouritism given the form of last years Supreme where he was 4th ahead of several of these and he was impressive the last day when accounting for Jezki easily. That said at 4/1 in such a competitive handicap he's probably about right. The 1 horse that did stand out though was Peregrine Run who is a course and distance winner having beaten Wholestone and Western Approach (2nd and 3rd fav for Fri Albert Bartlett) well back in November. A little disappointing the last day but gets a few pound relief for that and at around 9/1 looks rock solid to me. The other horse I can't avoid backing is Leoncavello. 5th in last years Triumph having beaten Sceau Royal earlier in the year things haven't really clicked for him this year but at 66/1 I'll be kicking myself if tomorrow is the day it all falls into place when I've finally lost hope.
1.5pts ew Pergrine Run 9/1
0.5pts ew Leoncavallo 66/1
Queen Mother:
All about Douvan - streets clear and possibly an even better 2/7 bet than Altior today. Think the field is very poor and the only one improving is Fox Norton who is already better than the rest of these and should be backed w/o the fav.
2pts Fox Norton w/o Douvan 11/4
Cross Country:
Usually an Enda Bolger benefit and Cantlow the worthy favourite. That said a horse who always seems to be there or there abouts is Ballyboker Bridge - wouldnt need a huge amount of luck to make the frame so happy to have a dart at 10 times the price.
0.5pts ew Ballyboker Bridge
Fred Winter:
Paul Nicholls is never far away with this race and hard to argue with backing his runners here especially Dreamcatching however one curious piece of form does jump out at me in Poker Play. Beat Charli Parcs on his debut in France (although probably not a true run race given how bunched the finish was) and won again at Enghien before being brought to England. Disappointed on his UK debut but forgiving him that he could prove to be a lot better than the mark he's been given here. At 20/1 I'm willing to take a chance.
1pt ew Poker Play 20/1
Monday, 13 March 2017
Racing certainties
If you take no risks you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Obviously we are still smarting from last years hiding so lets lets start with some certainties this time before getting into the greyer areas. There are 2 forces on this planet impossible to oppose - gravity and Altior. People probably think in this new era of zero percent interest rates and quantitive easing that the possibility of a decent risk free return has disappeared...wrong. Tomorrow for 3m and 50s you can find a risk free interest account yielding a massive 28% on any main street in Ireland. Simply walk in, lump it all on Altior and before you can slip next store for a quick one and back you will already have made more than most investment funds make in a decade. Barring injury, or another horse falling in front of him like an over-zealous suffragate he WILL win. That said I realise most of ye are not reading this for 2/7 winners so lets get on with the making of a millionaire:
Supreme Novices:
I've struggled for a long time with this. Melon has raced once and tried to bury himself in the turf at the last under no presure. Ballyandy had 2 patently horrendous runs behind Moon Racer before redeeming himself somewhat in the Betfair so possibly it is the case that he just needs a solidly run race to be seen at close to his best at odds of 7/2 I would expect something more solid. Bunk Off Early I toyed with for a long while but not sure that he will stay up this hill and can easy see him leading over the last before being swallowed up in slow motion up the hill. That doesn't leave a whole lot else and the fact that I spent an huge amount of time trying to decide if I should recommend Labaik - a horse that has the ability to win this but isn't that fond of racing (refused to race on last 3 starts) says it all about what it think of the field. If you are close to a computer tomorrow wait until 50 yards in and if Labaik isnt standing disinterestedly at the starting post lump him in-running. If not you may be best taking your chances with River Wylde. He probably would prefer a flat right handed track but he's still the most solid claim I can find. Beat a decent yardstick in Elgin the last day which gives him a fairly close line to Neon Wolfs form (who would have started fav if not choosing the wrong race to compete in). I'll be keeping my bets here to a minimum but
0.5pts ew River Wylde 9/1
1pt (in running if he jumps the first) Labaik
Arkle:
Death, taxes, Altior. This is a race for second. A distant second. However Charbel is very much a second tier horse and is second favourite purely on the basis of having being beaten by the best rather than showing any real ability of his own. The best of the rest looks most likely to be Forest Bihan stayed on the last day to beat 2 of the other also rans here (Cloudy Dream and A Hares Breath) at 25s or even 6s w/o Altior is worth a small nibble. B365 aren't fans of my custom these days so the 25/1 w/Boyles where the first €20 of your win stake will be refunded as a free bet when he comes second to the SP fav seems the way to go.
1pt e.w Forest Bihan 25/1
Ultima
Noble Endeavour came within a nose of beating the mighty Killultagh Vic 2 years ago however the 11lbs for winning at Leopardstown over Christmas might be enough so stop another heroic attempt here.Similarly Un Temp Pour Tout may just find a bit too much weight to amke the frame. The 2 that stand out to me are the novice Singlefarmpayment who I think would have won the last day if not brought down and is already a course and distance winner with Cheltenham form of 11B. Ibis de Rheu won the Martin Pipe last year and ran a solid 3rd on trials day behind Royal Vacation. I think SFP will be the one to side with with decent place claims for IdR. To jump ahead a little bit to the 4m I think we need to look back at a race involving SFP at Ascot earlier in the season where Beware the Bear was very impressive in beating him. I think it is a pretty solid double to back as if SFP franks that form it seem unlikely that BTB can be far from fav in the 4m. SWC may be a significant millstone in a G1 race but in an amateurs race outside of a few top Irish jockey who are amateur only in name he is a very solid option.
0.5pt ew Ibis de Rheu 14/1
1pt ew Single Farm Payment
.5pts Double: Singlefarmpayment/Beware The Bear
Champion Hurdle:
No standout star this year but hard to argue that Yanworth deserves to be favourite. I had a nibble at slightly bigger prices and wouldnt put anyone off getting involved here however it seems a very open race to me and the value looks to be with the outsiders. Of them Chtibello looks the most appealing. A 6yo that is still improving and hasn't been a million miles away from Yanworth on the last 2 starts. Yes he does need significant improvement to get his nose in front here but a wind operation since his last run might be just whats needed to spring a suprise here.
1pt ew Chtibello 28/1
Mares Hurdle
My entire betting strategy on this race has revolved around Vroum Vroum Mag. Seems like she is not 100% since returning sick from Doncaster the last day which has resulted in Limini turning up here rather than take her chance in the Champion. Given there are 4 G1/G2 horses in the race and there are doubts about 1 of them it makes the pace betting pretty straight forward! I have backed Limini to win, Apples Jade ew and Jer's Girl to place. Of them Apples Jade ew is comfortably the best bet. Was probably in need of the run when smashed by Limini the last day but at one stage was a CH contenders and hard to see her out of the top 3 here. If Limini isnt the hype horse we are led to believe she will win.
2.5pts ew Apples Jade 9/2
1pt Jers Girl to place 3.4
4m NH Chase
Having a real jockey in this makes a phenomenal difference and all the best horse have all the best jockeys. A Genie in a Bottle is a worthy fav given how close he got to Anibale Fly the last day and with the Codfather on board he is sure to go close. Edwulf has the ability but has a question mark over his jumping and Beware the Bear has the best UK form on offer. I would honestly back all 3 in the place market given their jockeys. Hopefully BTB will bring up a double for us but most likely will run into a place behind the Genie.
.5pts ew A Genie in a Bottle
.5pts ew Edwulf
.5pts ew Beware the Bear
Close Bro Handicap:
In the last the market pretty much has it right. I see it as a match between the impressivel winner the last day Foxtail Hill and the best of the rest last year behind Yorkhill and Yanworth - Itsafreebee. Will side with the latter at small stakes to land me enough to tide me over til day 2!
1pt ew Itsafreebee 9/1
Obviously we are still smarting from last years hiding so lets lets start with some certainties this time before getting into the greyer areas. There are 2 forces on this planet impossible to oppose - gravity and Altior. People probably think in this new era of zero percent interest rates and quantitive easing that the possibility of a decent risk free return has disappeared...wrong. Tomorrow for 3m and 50s you can find a risk free interest account yielding a massive 28% on any main street in Ireland. Simply walk in, lump it all on Altior and before you can slip next store for a quick one and back you will already have made more than most investment funds make in a decade. Barring injury, or another horse falling in front of him like an over-zealous suffragate he WILL win. That said I realise most of ye are not reading this for 2/7 winners so lets get on with the making of a millionaire:
Supreme Novices:
I've struggled for a long time with this. Melon has raced once and tried to bury himself in the turf at the last under no presure. Ballyandy had 2 patently horrendous runs behind Moon Racer before redeeming himself somewhat in the Betfair so possibly it is the case that he just needs a solidly run race to be seen at close to his best at odds of 7/2 I would expect something more solid. Bunk Off Early I toyed with for a long while but not sure that he will stay up this hill and can easy see him leading over the last before being swallowed up in slow motion up the hill. That doesn't leave a whole lot else and the fact that I spent an huge amount of time trying to decide if I should recommend Labaik - a horse that has the ability to win this but isn't that fond of racing (refused to race on last 3 starts) says it all about what it think of the field. If you are close to a computer tomorrow wait until 50 yards in and if Labaik isnt standing disinterestedly at the starting post lump him in-running. If not you may be best taking your chances with River Wylde. He probably would prefer a flat right handed track but he's still the most solid claim I can find. Beat a decent yardstick in Elgin the last day which gives him a fairly close line to Neon Wolfs form (who would have started fav if not choosing the wrong race to compete in). I'll be keeping my bets here to a minimum but
0.5pts ew River Wylde 9/1
1pt (in running if he jumps the first) Labaik
Arkle:
Death, taxes, Altior. This is a race for second. A distant second. However Charbel is very much a second tier horse and is second favourite purely on the basis of having being beaten by the best rather than showing any real ability of his own. The best of the rest looks most likely to be Forest Bihan stayed on the last day to beat 2 of the other also rans here (Cloudy Dream and A Hares Breath) at 25s or even 6s w/o Altior is worth a small nibble. B365 aren't fans of my custom these days so the 25/1 w/Boyles where the first €20 of your win stake will be refunded as a free bet when he comes second to the SP fav seems the way to go.
1pt e.w Forest Bihan 25/1
Ultima
Noble Endeavour came within a nose of beating the mighty Killultagh Vic 2 years ago however the 11lbs for winning at Leopardstown over Christmas might be enough so stop another heroic attempt here.Similarly Un Temp Pour Tout may just find a bit too much weight to amke the frame. The 2 that stand out to me are the novice Singlefarmpayment who I think would have won the last day if not brought down and is already a course and distance winner with Cheltenham form of 11B. Ibis de Rheu won the Martin Pipe last year and ran a solid 3rd on trials day behind Royal Vacation. I think SFP will be the one to side with with decent place claims for IdR. To jump ahead a little bit to the 4m I think we need to look back at a race involving SFP at Ascot earlier in the season where Beware the Bear was very impressive in beating him. I think it is a pretty solid double to back as if SFP franks that form it seem unlikely that BTB can be far from fav in the 4m. SWC may be a significant millstone in a G1 race but in an amateurs race outside of a few top Irish jockey who are amateur only in name he is a very solid option.
0.5pt ew Ibis de Rheu 14/1
1pt ew Single Farm Payment
.5pts Double: Singlefarmpayment/Beware The Bear
Champion Hurdle:
No standout star this year but hard to argue that Yanworth deserves to be favourite. I had a nibble at slightly bigger prices and wouldnt put anyone off getting involved here however it seems a very open race to me and the value looks to be with the outsiders. Of them Chtibello looks the most appealing. A 6yo that is still improving and hasn't been a million miles away from Yanworth on the last 2 starts. Yes he does need significant improvement to get his nose in front here but a wind operation since his last run might be just whats needed to spring a suprise here.
1pt ew Chtibello 28/1
Mares Hurdle
My entire betting strategy on this race has revolved around Vroum Vroum Mag. Seems like she is not 100% since returning sick from Doncaster the last day which has resulted in Limini turning up here rather than take her chance in the Champion. Given there are 4 G1/G2 horses in the race and there are doubts about 1 of them it makes the pace betting pretty straight forward! I have backed Limini to win, Apples Jade ew and Jer's Girl to place. Of them Apples Jade ew is comfortably the best bet. Was probably in need of the run when smashed by Limini the last day but at one stage was a CH contenders and hard to see her out of the top 3 here. If Limini isnt the hype horse we are led to believe she will win.
2.5pts ew Apples Jade 9/2
1pt Jers Girl to place 3.4
4m NH Chase
Having a real jockey in this makes a phenomenal difference and all the best horse have all the best jockeys. A Genie in a Bottle is a worthy fav given how close he got to Anibale Fly the last day and with the Codfather on board he is sure to go close. Edwulf has the ability but has a question mark over his jumping and Beware the Bear has the best UK form on offer. I would honestly back all 3 in the place market given their jockeys. Hopefully BTB will bring up a double for us but most likely will run into a place behind the Genie.
.5pts ew A Genie in a Bottle
.5pts ew Edwulf
.5pts ew Beware the Bear
Close Bro Handicap:
In the last the market pretty much has it right. I see it as a match between the impressivel winner the last day Foxtail Hill and the best of the rest last year behind Yorkhill and Yanworth - Itsafreebee. Will side with the latter at small stakes to land me enough to tide me over til day 2!
1pt ew Itsafreebee 9/1
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
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