Tuesday, 14 March 2017

Keeping the Wolf from the door

Not the worst of starts with Labaik finally getting his act together and a few wins and places to keep us ticking over. A trickier card for tomorrow but still a few worth getting stuck into.

Neptune:
All revolves around 1 horse for me Neon Wolf's annihilation of Elgin the last day was probably the most impressive novice display of the season and in the hands of the new master Harry Fry I would expect him to confirm himself as the next big star tomorrow. Thats not to say there is no decent opposition here although for the place money I think you need to look a big further down the betting market. Shattered Love has been very impressive in his last 2 wins and before that came out the wrong side of close affairs with the 2 best novice mares in Ireland who dominate the betting for Thursdays mares race (Airlie Beach and Let's Dance). Elliott is flying and if there is to be an upset I expect it to come from her. Willoughby Court is another who will stake a claim here but think will find a couple of these to good for him in the end.

3pts Neon Wolf 15/8
1pt e/w Shattered Love 11/1

RSA Chase:
Very tricky race and could make an arguement against every one of them. Might Bite's display at Christmas before he decided to somersault the last was comfortably the most impressive display of the season where he was about to post a time faster than Thistlecrack in the King George over course and distance. However against that is the fact that he somersaulted the last with the race at his mercy and also more importantly that in 3 visits to Cheltenham he won an egg and spoon race by a length from some overgrown Shetland pony but when faced with any decent opposition on the other 2 occasions he folded very quickly. Whisper would seem to have strong claims off his course win the last day but despite 2 solid runs in Stayers Hurdles here in the past when his build ups had not been ideal I do have the feeling that he needs a flat track to really stay 3m. Alpha des Obeux bled heavily the last day when pulled up a Leopardstown and would be taking a lot on faith to be backing at 5s here. Only really leaves Acapello Bourgouis who galloped relentlessly away from a decent field in Navan the last day when given an easy lead. Don't doubt that she'll stay and that could be enough in a field which as of yet would seem to lack a stand out star.

0.5pts e/w Acappello Bourgouis

Coral Cup:
Big field to trawl through here and a few horses near the top of the betting which are unknown quanitities to a certain extent and so maybe thrown in. However without the inside scoop on them probably better to concentrate on what we do know. Tombstone deserves favouritism given the form of last years Supreme where he was 4th ahead of several of these and he was impressive the last day when accounting for Jezki easily. That said at 4/1 in such a competitive handicap he's probably about right. The 1 horse that did stand out though was Peregrine Run who is a course and distance winner having beaten Wholestone and Western Approach (2nd and 3rd fav for Fri Albert Bartlett) well back in November.  A little disappointing the last day but gets a few pound relief for that and at around 9/1 looks rock solid to me. The other horse I can't avoid backing is Leoncavello. 5th in last years Triumph having beaten Sceau Royal earlier in the year things haven't really clicked for him this year but at 66/1 I'll be kicking myself if tomorrow is the day it all falls into place when I've finally lost hope.

1.5pts ew Pergrine Run 9/1
0.5pts ew Leoncavallo 66/1

Queen Mother:
All about Douvan - streets clear and possibly an even better 2/7 bet than Altior today. Think the field is very poor and the only one improving is Fox Norton who is already better than the rest of these and should be backed w/o the fav.

2pts Fox Norton w/o Douvan 11/4

Cross Country:
Usually an Enda Bolger benefit and Cantlow the worthy favourite. That said a horse who always seems to be there or there abouts is Ballyboker Bridge - wouldnt need a huge amount of luck to make the frame so happy to have a dart at 10 times the price.

0.5pts ew Ballyboker Bridge

Fred Winter:
Paul Nicholls is never far away with this race and hard to argue with backing his runners here especially Dreamcatching however one curious piece of form does jump out at me in Poker Play. Beat Charli Parcs on his debut in France (although probably not a true run race given how bunched the finish was) and won again at Enghien before being brought to England. Disappointed on his UK debut but forgiving him that he could prove to be a lot better than the mark he's been given here. At 20/1 I'm willing to take a chance.

1pt ew Poker Play 20/1


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