Obviously we are still smarting from last years hiding so lets lets start with some certainties this time before getting into the greyer areas. There are 2 forces on this planet impossible to oppose - gravity and Altior. People probably think in this new era of zero percent interest rates and quantitive easing that the possibility of a decent risk free return has disappeared...wrong. Tomorrow for 3m and 50s you can find a risk free interest account yielding a massive 28% on any main street in Ireland. Simply walk in, lump it all on Altior and before you can slip next store for a quick one and back you will already have made more than most investment funds make in a decade. Barring injury, or another horse falling in front of him like an over-zealous suffragate he WILL win. That said I realise most of ye are not reading this for 2/7 winners so lets get on with the making of a millionaire:
Supreme Novices:
I've struggled for a long time with this. Melon has raced once and tried to bury himself in the turf at the last under no presure. Ballyandy had 2 patently horrendous runs behind Moon Racer before redeeming himself somewhat in the Betfair so possibly it is the case that he just needs a solidly run race to be seen at close to his best at odds of 7/2 I would expect something more solid. Bunk Off Early I toyed with for a long while but not sure that he will stay up this hill and can easy see him leading over the last before being swallowed up in slow motion up the hill. That doesn't leave a whole lot else and the fact that I spent an huge amount of time trying to decide if I should recommend Labaik - a horse that has the ability to win this but isn't that fond of racing (refused to race on last 3 starts) says it all about what it think of the field. If you are close to a computer tomorrow wait until 50 yards in and if Labaik isnt standing disinterestedly at the starting post lump him in-running. If not you may be best taking your chances with River Wylde. He probably would prefer a flat right handed track but he's still the most solid claim I can find. Beat a decent yardstick in Elgin the last day which gives him a fairly close line to Neon Wolfs form (who would have started fav if not choosing the wrong race to compete in). I'll be keeping my bets here to a minimum but
0.5pts ew River Wylde 9/1
1pt (in running if he jumps the first) Labaik
Arkle:
Death, taxes, Altior. This is a race for second. A distant second. However Charbel is very much a second tier horse and is second favourite purely on the basis of having being beaten by the best rather than showing any real ability of his own. The best of the rest looks most likely to be Forest Bihan stayed on the last day to beat 2 of the other also rans here (Cloudy Dream and A Hares Breath) at 25s or even 6s w/o Altior is worth a small nibble. B365 aren't fans of my custom these days so the 25/1 w/Boyles where the first €20 of your win stake will be refunded as a free bet when he comes second to the SP fav seems the way to go.
1pt e.w Forest Bihan 25/1
Ultima
Noble Endeavour came within a nose of beating the mighty Killultagh Vic 2 years ago however the 11lbs for winning at Leopardstown over Christmas might be enough so stop another heroic attempt here.Similarly Un Temp Pour Tout may just find a bit too much weight to amke the frame. The 2 that stand out to me are the novice Singlefarmpayment who I think would have won the last day if not brought down and is already a course and distance winner with Cheltenham form of 11B. Ibis de Rheu won the Martin Pipe last year and ran a solid 3rd on trials day behind Royal Vacation. I think SFP will be the one to side with with decent place claims for IdR. To jump ahead a little bit to the 4m I think we need to look back at a race involving SFP at Ascot earlier in the season where Beware the Bear was very impressive in beating him. I think it is a pretty solid double to back as if SFP franks that form it seem unlikely that BTB can be far from fav in the 4m. SWC may be a significant millstone in a G1 race but in an amateurs race outside of a few top Irish jockey who are amateur only in name he is a very solid option.
0.5pt ew Ibis de Rheu 14/1
1pt ew Single Farm Payment
.5pts Double: Singlefarmpayment/Beware The Bear
Champion Hurdle:
No standout star this year but hard to argue that Yanworth deserves to be favourite. I had a nibble at slightly bigger prices and wouldnt put anyone off getting involved here however it seems a very open race to me and the value looks to be with the outsiders. Of them Chtibello looks the most appealing. A 6yo that is still improving and hasn't been a million miles away from Yanworth on the last 2 starts. Yes he does need significant improvement to get his nose in front here but a wind operation since his last run might be just whats needed to spring a suprise here.
1pt ew Chtibello 28/1
Mares Hurdle
My entire betting strategy on this race has revolved around Vroum Vroum Mag. Seems like she is not 100% since returning sick from Doncaster the last day which has resulted in Limini turning up here rather than take her chance in the Champion. Given there are 4 G1/G2 horses in the race and there are doubts about 1 of them it makes the pace betting pretty straight forward! I have backed Limini to win, Apples Jade ew and Jer's Girl to place. Of them Apples Jade ew is comfortably the best bet. Was probably in need of the run when smashed by Limini the last day but at one stage was a CH contenders and hard to see her out of the top 3 here. If Limini isnt the hype horse we are led to believe she will win.
2.5pts ew Apples Jade 9/2
1pt Jers Girl to place 3.4
4m NH Chase
Having a real jockey in this makes a phenomenal difference and all the best horse have all the best jockeys. A Genie in a Bottle is a worthy fav given how close he got to Anibale Fly the last day and with the Codfather on board he is sure to go close. Edwulf has the ability but has a question mark over his jumping and Beware the Bear has the best UK form on offer. I would honestly back all 3 in the place market given their jockeys. Hopefully BTB will bring up a double for us but most likely will run into a place behind the Genie.
.5pts ew A Genie in a Bottle
.5pts ew Edwulf
.5pts ew Beware the Bear
Close Bro Handicap:
In the last the market pretty much has it right. I see it as a match between the impressivel winner the last day Foxtail Hill and the best of the rest last year behind Yorkhill and Yanworth - Itsafreebee. Will side with the latter at small stakes to land me enough to tide me over til day 2!
1pt ew Itsafreebee 9/1
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
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