Pic-ture perfect

Just back in from a day of witnessing the action in the flesh. Some great racing and some great stories but great stories won't pay the bills so need to get things back on track tomorrow with a few winners. Will be brief because it's already been a long day.

Triumph;
The fav here is very good and looked a phenomenal talent but at odds on it is probably a little short against the field. The interesting horse here is Pic D'Orhy who had form in France that wasn't far off what Sir Eric has been posting and although he hasn't been seen in the UK since moving to Nicholls yard he does have previous in getting these French imports primed to go first time out at the festival. At 10/1 looks a much better option. Of the big prices the Mullins second string might have a decent bit of improvement left. Won an egg and spoon race down in Clonmel pretty easily the last day and might just improve enough to sneak a place

1.5pts ew Pic D'Orhy 10/1
0.25pts ew French Made 50/1

County Hurdle:
I rarely get this excited about a handicap! See the Kings section below

Albert Bartlett:
A race to side with the English on with the main Irish hopes looking pretty weak (although Derrinross couldn't have asked for more ideal conditions.) Lisnagar Oscar looks to have improved more than Dickie Diver since he beat him a head 2 races back and think he can just about shade it against a very solid yardstick in Birchdale, but probably not a whole lot between the 3 of them.

1pt ew Lisnagar Oscar 13/2

Gold Cup:
Presenting Percy has the fairytale story of the race but he also has a fairytale price - impossible to back a horse in a Gold Cup without seeing him jump a fence for 12 months. The Pat Kelly genius may deliver but I'll pay to see it. Comfortably the star horse of the year has been Clan des Obeaux and no way he should be 3rd fav coming into this. Unfortunately though I do have to tip up a second horse here. My Pavlovian reaction to hearing Bristol de Mai's name is generally to curl up in a ball shaking - he has unlimited talent but shows it fleetingly, almost always just after I've given up hope that the abillity is still in there lurking somewhere. He has perfect conditions tomorrow and put up a monster performance at the start of the year in the Betfair Chase which on its own should make his price too big. It kills me to back him but I can't stop myself on this one.

1.5pts ew Clan des Obeaux 11/2
0.75pts ew Bristol de Mai 25/1

Foxhunters:
Caid du Berlais wasn't far off last year and has been in sparkling form since

1.5pts ew Caid du Berlais

County Hurdle

Another handicap, another set of favs i dislike! Whiskey Sour beat 3l off 2 higher last year. Hasn't improved on that run on RPRs since so cant be having the 11/2 there. Ch'tibello angle is obvious with the wind op but still 11lb higher than his only ever handicap win. We are going down the headgear route again, this time wth Western Ryder. Beat 4l in greatwood and Ladbroke and up 5 lb for that. Rise is negated by Harry Teal's claim. What might make the difference is the first time blinkers. Will be in the mix but may come up short. However he must be backed though when you see the price. Should be around a 14s shot in my book, but youre getting 25s on exchange tonight. Hopefully that will translate to shops tomorrow for those without Betfair account. 

Also backing Leoncavello. The blog creator and I have been waiting about 3 years for this dog to have his day and i think it has arrived. No longer hamstrung by the garbage amateur that used to ride him and now in the care of Dr Newland. His galway hurdle third is red hot form, hes had a chase run since which can be ignored and i think Newland has been waiting to pick his day as hes been entered in the Betfair & Imperial Cup lately. The Doc presses go tomorrow. Get involved

1.5 pts ew Leoncavello 20s or 18s is ok

1.5 pts ew Western Ryder 25s on Bf is possible

Grand Annual

Must admit 2m handicap chasers are not my strongest interest but i think i can still spot a plot horse with great CD form. Le Prezien streaked home last year by 4.5 lengths and is only a lb higher tomorrow! Since then hes run in a Grade 1, G2, a hurdle and jumped like a piano at Sandown the last day. Worth noting he also put in a horror round last year in his run before this. Thats not how to prep a horse but it clearly shows Nicholls can correct this horses errors. His jumping the last day is probably factored into the price too but even still, he should not be fifth in the betting after the manner of last years win, his plot job prep up until the last day and the form of Nicholl's yard this week and over the last month.

If the rain arrives in the morning and his price drifts a bit, Top Gamble has an incredible CD record and also has had his jumping problems. If you can get 25s after some rain he is worth adding

2 pts ew Le Prezien

.75 ew Top Gamble 25s

Martin Pipe Hurdle

Top of the market is littered with lightly enough raced sorts who could have a good few pounds in hand. Same comments apply to a horse who is 33/1 though - Style Garde. Only his 6th hurdle run in Uk and trained by Hendo. He stayed on very stoutly to be 2nd in last years Fred Winter at 2m. PU at Aintree and got the Hendo special - the wind op! Chasing this year (to as gd a standard as over hurdles but all at 2m) except for one hurdle run over 2m3 behind Not That Fuisse. All his runs discuss his need to settle. If he does he could improve a huge amount. Ned Curtis rides and would be first choice ahead of non stable regular Richard Patrick who rides Pym at half the price. This horse has not turned up here with one hurdle run by accident in Hendo's care and has gone very close with ones stepping up in trip in this race before. He might not settle and thus not get home but many at the head of the market have huge question marks also and very few have the experience of a Cheltenham fez cavalry charge in their locker. 

2.5 pts ew Style Garde 33s

We're on the road again

The Handicap King living up to his name so far with another 33/1 winner today! Only half way though so need to push on.

JLT:
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil  have been pretty evenly matched all season but I think a better stamina test on a left handed course will actually play into Lostintranslation's hands. He jumped left across all his jumps the last day on a right handed track having jumped straight as an arrow the time before back at Cheltenham. I also get the impression that DdS is a 2m horse who can't jump fences at 2m pace which is why they pushed him up in trip after getting taken out of his jumping comfort zone the first time out. The real danger to Lostintranslation is probably the controversial Vinndication who supposedly wasn't running before making a Lazarus like recovery 2 days later. He was backed into favourite against the top 2 here last day out and despite running quite flat wasn't beaten all that far. If it was all a scam to let them get on at bigger prices he could be a real danger here but happy to side with LIT with a tiny saver on Vinn just in case.

2pts ew Lostintranslation 4/1
.25pts win Vinndication 8/1

Ryanair:
The best horse here is obviously Footpad but the fact that he lines up here rather than in the Champion Chase shows he is clearly not 100% and as such over a trip longer than optimal he is impossible to back. Frodon has been impressive this season but never seems to hold his form into the spring and this is a hotter contest than he's faced so far this season. Monalee is solid but I think will again find 1 or 2 too good for him. Which leaves a horse than on better ground would have been a contender in a Gold Cup and a combination of softer ground and owner connections means he lines up here instead - Road to Respect is about as rock solid as they come and possibly this is his optimal trip having won the Brown handicap over course and distance 2 years ago. Consistently there or thereabouts in G1's and looks a very solid option here.

2pts ew Road to Respect 9/2

Stayers Hurdle:
Paisley Park has dominated the stayers division this year having made huge progress since last season. That said 2/1 doesn't seem overly enticing despite the time he clocked the last day in the Cleeve. Faugheen is a legend but at 11 is too short with performance levels more erratic. Supasundae is rock solid but seems destined to always be a bridesmaid. The horse that really appeals here is Kilbricken Storm who won a solid Albert Bartlett over course and distance last year and is being sent back hurdling after an aborted attempt at a chasing career. Black Ops has a similar profile and shouldn't be discounted but KS just about gets the nod between them at similar prices.

1pt ew Kilbricken Storm 14/1

Mare's Novices:
Plenty of talking horses here but hard to believe that Sancta Simona is a 20/1 shot having been the stables first string in a G1 against the boys in Leopardstown at Christmas where she only found stable mate Aramon too good for her. Probably not as much between her and JP's other runner as the market makes out here.

.5pts ew Sancta Simona 20/1


And now for the good stuff!

Pertemps

Elliots yoke is raging fav but was beat off this mark in m pipe last year although wanted better gallop. Clearly just did enough to qualify the last day but price is way too short. I had Not Many Left & Abolitionist second & third favs in my own book. NML is Jessies but not bothered that Power rides Walk to Freedom. judging by his December entry in Carlisle this has been the plan for a long time. Beat a small but good quality field in his qualifier win in Huntington and is totally unexposed. The way he stormed up Navan hill last Jan in mud suggests this course will be no problem and he gave Cuneo an almighty beating that day. 

Abolitionist is on his second hurdles run for Dr Newland after being a top handicapper in Ireland. Won the Leinster National over 3m in mud up Naas hill off this mark in his Irish days. Moonwalked home in his qualifier and ran as if the last day was a pipe opener over fences. Will end up in the Grand National but not a bad pot to pick up en route

2 pts ew Not Many Left 16s

2 pts ew Abolitionist 16s

Kim Muir

I wrote on Tuesday to lump BTTT (now a NR so cash back) and No Comment. Disappointed DOC rides Ted's yak (2 error riddled rounds here and at Leop at C'mas) but still want NC onside. Really against most at top of market based on ground/trip and think the fav is worst one of the week. Claims are based on a run here 3 years ago and a comeback in an awful conditions race. Huge chance of a bounce also that seems to be ignored completely too. My dad & few mates will choke on their coffee but Squouateur is a bet at what will be a big price on Betfair. His form is the alphabet but the bottom line is he was a close third here last year. Yes Gordon ran him out of the country but Ben Haslem has won with 3 of the 6 head cases/timebombs that JP has sent him this year. Last year he was 7/2, this year you can have 40s plus on the machine

Other arrow is Ah Littleluck. Small trainer but a Grand National winner in Ire. Angle here is pure and utter stamina and a chase career that looks like it was built to handicap him well - most runs well short of his minimum trip of 3m. Re watch his Aintree hurdle run last year and you see the peleton close on him after making the running but he battles on to come back for more in third. Or his win the day the Irish National shouldnt have been run! Huge issue is his two unseats so far. But at 66s you're not going to get every box ticked. Worth paying the toll incase last years winning jockey (race for amateurs)  doesnt fall off

1.5 pts ew Sqouoateur (betfair if possible)

1.5 pts ew Ah Littleluck 66s

BONUS RACE- 355 Hexham

2 pts ew Total Assets 7/1

4m kelso run is form that has worked out very well. Trip too sharp the last day but stayed on very nicely

 

410 Chelt - name changes every yr!

Happy to oppose the CD form of the two favs who had only 8 opponents but are being credited as if it was the usual field of 16 good handicappers that that race often is. Going with polar ends of the experience spectrum here - River Wlyde hasnt faced more than 6 rivals in his three chases which is a recipe for disaster in a scrap like this. However, if he can get into a rhythm he could be way ahead of his mark based on the beating he gave Hells Kitchen and he had the measure of Activial the last day and that one bounced back to run very well Tues. Win bet only incase his jumping collapses. 

Other one is last years second Splash of Ginge. Ignore any run of his that doesnt say soft and 2m4 beside it, therefore all of this year. Two of his last 4 goes here under ideal conditions have produced runs good enough to win this weak renewal. Two others were stink. But at 28s, two in four looks perfectly acceptable!

1.5 pt win River Wylde 14s

1 pt ew Splash of Ginge 28s

 

Play it again Sam

Good start but still a long way to go.

Ballymore Hurdle:
Feel like Champ has always been a bit overhyped since getting so close to Vinndication on his hurdles debut last year and I don't think his name helps keep expectations under control. For me this is one where the Irish hold the aces. The Lawlor's hurdle in Nass looked a decent race and even though Battleoverdoyen has done nothing wrong all season including when putting that race to bed pretty easily after the last the horse that really stood out that day was Sam's Profile. He made a couple of mistakes got bumped got properly roughed up and kept coming back for more and when everything else was going backwards he was closing all the way to the line. I actually wanted to see him step up to 3m but in these conditions the pace should slow to help improve his jumping and with a premium on toughness they don't look to come much tougher. I like them both but with SP over twice the price of BOD he's the main pick with a little saver on BOD.

Sam Profile 11/1 1.5pts ew
Battleoverdoyen 4/1 .5pts ew

RSA Chase:
It's hard to fault Delta Work who has gone from strength to strength since winning the Pertemps here last year including beating Le Richbourg who would have been a very short fav in the Arkle but for injury. That said one of the performances of the year came from Topofthegame who got left at the start by 20Ls before closing to go down by only 3Ls to Defi de Sueil the JLT fav. His run behind La Bague Au Roi over Christmas wasn't too shabby either. Santini was closing to the line that day but hasn't had an ideal preparation since yet is priced shorter in the market. Of the bigger prices one I expect to outrun their price is Drovers Lane - last seen beating todays 4m winner Le Breuil here over 2m4f in November before having a wind op and being put away for this and I expect a big step up from him tomorrow.

2pts ew Topofthegame 4/1
0.5pts ew Drovers Lane 20/1

Champion Chase:
Hard to really put anything up here. Altior will win and Min will come second. I guess if you get evens on Min betting w/o Altior its not the worst interest bet in the race.

Cross Country:
Tiger Roll looked very good the last day at Navan surprising even his trainer with his well being. If all is well he'll be winning at the festival for the 4th time. That said the best value is in behind him opposing the other Irish runner's for the place market. This used be a race that the Irish owned but this is starting to change of late with strong challenges from both the home contingent and the French raiders. There was an absolute mountain of cash for Amazing Comedy earlier in the winter when he came over for a sighter. Granted he will be carrying 19lbs more this time around but it still seems like they have a lot of confidence that 4th that day wasn't the peak of his running and he'll have his normal jockey back on board tomorrow yet is being quoted in places at 40/1. Of the home challenge Fact of the Matter looks the clear pick and with a win over C&D back in December he is also a bit forgotten about at 18/1

Amazing Comedy .75pts ew 40/1
Fact of the Matter .5pts ew 18/1

Bumper:
Favourite looks very short having won a slow bike race the last day. The proven form is with Envoi Allen and Meticulous. Seems like the second horse should have more scope for improvement and is twice the price so will have a nibble there.

Meticulous .75pts ew 8/1

Handicap Hotshots:

Coral Cup

Race centres around Ruby, Willie & Uradel who will improve for the step up in trip. However everything has its price and 5/1 is far too short here for a horse that is clearly well regarded at home judged on BSPs but is in arguably the most competitive handicap of the year which is littered with plots and more headgear than an NFL game!

The betting angle here comes courtesy of CD form and our beloved wind ops. These procedures to improve breathing now have to be publicised. I dont have the exact nos to hand but read them lately and the strike rate off a breathing op are not as hot as was first envisaged by punters. However they definitely have to be factored in. We saw this yesterday in the case of Beware the bear who looked totally exposed before his one, and he won two Cheltenham handicaps since! Same trainer, same op, same cd angle - William Henry & Burbank. Beat 2l & 7l in this last year on same ground. Both had one disappointing run this year and a wind op since. CD form is golden here and Hendo can clearly cut a horse's throat well so their prices are a long way off what i made them. More on WH as he did finish ahead last year when 8/1 Co-fav

2 pts ew William Henry 33/1

1.5 pts ew Burbank 50/1

Fred Winter/Boodles/Whatever they call it

Impossible race. Again a few cattle & sheep worth of leather straps & fluffy pieces going on first time here on horses with very few runs, and hardly any who will have encountered this sort of cavalry charge. Add in that many have just arrived from France and you have my least fav betting hcap of the year! Some guys specialise in French racing and these sort of races. One such man on twitter is @Jinksmarmaduke. He rates Fanfan Du Seuil a bet here so thats good enough for me

0.5 pts ew Fanfan Du Seuil 16/1

Let's Rok

So the blog is going to be set up a little differently this year. My focus is almost entirely on the level weights racing and generally the handicap tips are only really an after thought and in truth probably not that great. So to plug this big gap we've recruited the Handicap King who has been smashing up these races for the past few years to give his top fancies and hopefully boost our profits even further over the week.

I guess the one big thing to mention before cracking into it is how much things have changed over the last few years in terms of finding value. Usually on the Monday of Cheltenham you used to find me hauling a bag of cash around town hitting every bookie within walking distance to hoover up as much value as possible. Those days are sadly gone and after a cursory look around town tonight it was quickly back to my laptop to get my bets down. Now they likely will have some on the spot specials tomorrow but not a lot i can do to guide you on them. For those of you lucky enough to still have online bookie accounts that take e/w bets there is still some great value out there - Will Hill paying on the first 7 home in the supreme and 6 places available in some of the handicaps. I've put up horse below but being patient with a few of them til around 11am tomorrow could be your best strategy as between 11-1 you will get pretty tight markets as various horse get boosted with the bookies looking to get peoples attention.

So on we go!

Supreme:
Quite an open race this year and you could make a reasonable case for 6 or 7. What is not reasonable though is how the Irish runners are priced up - last day in Leopardstown Klassical Dream beat Aramon in a photo finish with Vision D'Honnour 6Ls back yet somehow tomorrow Aramon is 3 times the price of KD and a bigger price even than VDH. Seems to be a horse the market never likes with no money for him either before his Christmas G1 win or for his photo 2nd at the Dublin racing festival. He looked a supreme horse that day despite being beaten and I would take him to just about reverse the placings with KD who I had been looking forward to betting on in the Ballymore before getting re-routed here. My best guess is that Aramon works like a pig at home and only ever comes alive at the track given how surprised the stable has been with his progress. My one concern with him is that I think we may already have seen close to his best - in terms of making a big leap forward I think that we may have seen that in December when he stepped up on his Fairyhouse 3rd to destroy the G1 by 10Ls however there is probably still some more to be seen from him and at a double digit price I will definitely want some ew money on him. Al Dancer is another who we have probably already seen close to his best and although I expect him to run a solid race I think he will find 1 or 2 here too good for him - better horses have won the Betfair hurdle  on higher marks and still come up short in the Supreme than him. Fakir Doudairis looked very impressive the last day in Cheltenham and looks another with a big future but the Supreme is a harder race to win than the triumph even with the wait allowance. I wouldnt put anyone off backing him but for me his price looks about right. The one really exciting horse in the race though is the longtime antepost favourite Angels Breath. This is a horse that I really do expect to make a big leap forward from the last day where I actually thought he rallied impressively at the end showing good temperament and despite a disrupted run up of yard closures and flu jabs he ran pretty much as fast as anything else this year. A fully fit AB could be an absolute beast and despite being edged out of favouritism he looks clearly the most likely winner to me.

1pt ew Aramon 16/1
2pts ew Angels Breath 9/2

Arkle:
So I had a decent cut at Hardline for this a couple of weeks back when he was still a double figure price so I will likely hold off on betting again tomorrow but if I hadn't already backed him I think he still represents the most likely winner tomorrow. Apart from a curious last run he has been in great form all winter giving Us and Them a 10L beating at Navan (which was further than he ever got beat by Le Richbourg) and stepping up in trip he saw off Getabird and given it was Limerick he is also one of the few horses to have won in mud this winter - he probably got a little lucky that day with Getabird making a mistake at the last but once he got half a length up he was not for passing. As usual he will be held up off the pace and don't think anyone will be coming up the hill better. Worth mentioning that Navan is a left handed undulating track with a stiff uphill finish in case that sounds familiar! I generally swerve any horse who is coming here off a short turnaround particularly where they put up a fast time as elite 2m chasers need time to recover from the exertions of pinging fences at such speed which is the main reason I so readily discount Glen Forsa and  Duc de Geneviere but in truth there are a few other holes you could pick in their form and preparation. Kalashnikov has never excelled this season although almost certainly not as bad as he looked the last day but the yards form hasnt gotten any better since so happy to pass on him. Paloma BLue has a bit of class but the jumping errors are hard to ignore. The one other horse I would actually worry about is Lalor who was very impressive both in Aintree last season and Cheltenham first time out this year. Hasn't gone to plan since but  if getting back to that level will give them all something to think about. Given the stable form I'll have a little saver win only on this to limit my losses if Hardline comes up short.

Hardline 1.5pts ew 5/1
Lalor .5pts win 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
A cracking race to watch not a cracking race to bet on though and I will be keeping stakes to a minimum at these prices. Apples Jade has been burning up the track at every distance this season and not hard to see why she is favourite although this is a very different task to what she has been faced with previously. They seem to think they have the issue of her going into season under control this season using a marble but that probably does add a bit of volatility to her performance than needs to be allowed for. Buveur D'air is a 2 time champ although probably been 2 years since he's had to be at his best that said he is the slickest jumper has a good cruising speed and beating Samcro in the autumn was probably his best performance in 18 months. Laurina could be anything but is a horrible price for a horse who has only ever raced on the gallops of Closutton. I just about side with Buveur D'air but worth flagging that most of the people I respect are in the Apples Jade camp. I think the best play here is to be patient - at some point tomorrow there will be 3/1 available on Buveur and taking that e/w is incredible value. Both AJ and Laurina could win but have much more volatile profiles than Buveur who will almost certainly run to somewhere in the mid to high 160s which is almost certain to place. If you get 3/1 ew 1/4 odds  you get a shot to nothing and that seems the best play here.

Wait for Buveur D'air to hit 3/1 then 2pts ew

Mares Hurdle:
My biggest antepost bet ever has been on Roksana here and she is still phenomenal value. A close second behind Santini in a G1 novice hurdle on soft ground at the end of last season the Skelton's have been gentle with here since. Wasn't fully fit when 3rd behind Buveur D'air and Vision de Flos the last day and should progress nicely from there. Benie des Diuex seems a little over-rated on what she achieved last year but possibly has progressed since then, if anyone can produce a horse from nowhere for Cheltenham WPM is the man but taking a lot on trust to be playing here at odds on.

Roksana 3pts ew 8/1

National Hunt Chase:
Market looks clearly wrong here and seems people more concerned about offering a big price for the last leg of a WPM acca than actually pricing the market correctly. OK Corral was 3Ls ahead of Ballyward last year in the Albert Bartlett and always looked like further would suit. Has taken well to fences and was foot perfect when effectively given a schooling session by DOC at Warwick. He should be favourite here and is a clear bet for me against the chalk.

OK Corral 1.5pts ew 4/1

And now for the winners:

Ultima Chase

When God speaks - listen - no, not Gary Twigg, but Simon Rowlands of the Irish Field. He told us in his column post Christmas abut how good the time and sectionals were that Lake View Lad did in his win on Stephens Day. The form of that race has also been boosted by Crosspark & Wakanda. Travels well and is very solid jumper which are very beneficial in a race like this. No evidence to suggest he is finished improving. More rain the better.

A race of this nature requires another poke - Beware the Bear fits the bill. Had looked exposed until New Years Day when he won very nicely over CD after a wind op and change of tactics. Whether he can/wants to dominate from the front in this big a field is unknown, but if he cant lie up he has lots of stamina to stay on in the mud like last year and the wind op angle means there may be more to come. 

Recomm: 1.5pts ew Lake View Lad 22/1

1 pt ew Beware the Bear 16/1

Close Brothers Chase

Novice handicaps not my favourite punting races due to smaller amount of form than usual to access over chosen obstacle so smaller stakes here.  The market has spotted the more obvious ones and acted accordingly. One that is underrated though is Quamino. The improvement angle here comes from the step up in trip. He finished his last two races very strongly and we've seen him handle further before (and Nolan had him entered in 2 x 3m hcap hurdles last yr). The race he won at Leopardstown last time out is a very competitive one each year and only a 6lb higher mark is very fair. Soft ground was no problem in hurdle career

0.5 pts ew Quamino 22/1

Early Bird Catches the Worm.....

Kim Muir Chase - Thursday

Act early and act often here by betting before tomorrow morning's decs come out and pile into the two horses who should be favs here. Its a dream scenario. Couldnt be more against the fav of Elliots who was pumped two years ago in this and is being backed on the back of an ok comeback in an awful race last time and some form from 3 years back. Also, most other serious contenders cant/dont want/have never seen mud - Sky Pirate, Touch Kick, Treacle Tart, Just a Sting & Its All Guesswork. The two who should head the market are BACK TO THE THATCH and NO COMMENT. BTTT is a mud lark with stamina whose last two runs have received huge boosts from RamSes de Teille & Chef d'oeuvre. No Comment has a Timeform P and looks laid out for a big spring handicap after purely not staying 4m here last year.