JLT:
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil have been pretty evenly matched all season but I think a better stamina test on a left handed course will actually play into Lostintranslation's hands. He jumped left across all his jumps the last day on a right handed track having jumped straight as an arrow the time before back at Cheltenham. I also get the impression that DdS is a 2m horse who can't jump fences at 2m pace which is why they pushed him up in trip after getting taken out of his jumping comfort zone the first time out. The real danger to Lostintranslation is probably the controversial Vinndication who supposedly wasn't running before making a Lazarus like recovery 2 days later. He was backed into favourite against the top 2 here last day out and despite running quite flat wasn't beaten all that far. If it was all a scam to let them get on at bigger prices he could be a real danger here but happy to side with LIT with a tiny saver on Vinn just in case.
2pts ew Lostintranslation 4/1
.25pts win Vinndication 8/1
Ryanair:
The best horse here is obviously Footpad but the fact that he lines up here rather than in the Champion Chase shows he is clearly not 100% and as such over a trip longer than optimal he is impossible to back. Frodon has been impressive this season but never seems to hold his form into the spring and this is a hotter contest than he's faced so far this season. Monalee is solid but I think will again find 1 or 2 too good for him. Which leaves a horse than on better ground would have been a contender in a Gold Cup and a combination of softer ground and owner connections means he lines up here instead - Road to Respect is about as rock solid as they come and possibly this is his optimal trip having won the Brown handicap over course and distance 2 years ago. Consistently there or thereabouts in G1's and looks a very solid option here.
2pts ew Road to Respect 9/2
Stayers Hurdle:
Paisley Park has dominated the stayers division this year having made huge progress since last season. That said 2/1 doesn't seem overly enticing despite the time he clocked the last day in the Cleeve. Faugheen is a legend but at 11 is too short with performance levels more erratic. Supasundae is rock solid but seems destined to always be a bridesmaid. The horse that really appeals here is Kilbricken Storm who won a solid Albert Bartlett over course and distance last year and is being sent back hurdling after an aborted attempt at a chasing career. Black Ops has a similar profile and shouldn't be discounted but KS just about gets the nod between them at similar prices.
1pt ew Kilbricken Storm 14/1
Mare's Novices:
Plenty of talking horses here but hard to believe that Sancta Simona is a 20/1 shot having been the stables first string in a G1 against the boys in Leopardstown at Christmas where she only found stable mate Aramon too good for her. Probably not as much between her and JP's other runner as the market makes out here.
.5pts ew Sancta Simona 20/1
And now for the good stuff!
Pertemps
Elliots yoke is raging fav but was beat off this
mark in m pipe last year although wanted better gallop. Clearly just
did enough to qualify the last day but price is way too short. I had Not
Many Left & Abolitionist second & third favs in my own book.
NML is Jessies but not bothered that Power rides Walk to Freedom.
judging by his December entry in Carlisle this has been the plan for a
long time. Beat a small but good quality field in his qualifier win in
Huntington and is totally unexposed. The way he stormed up Navan hill
last Jan in mud suggests this course will be no problem and he gave
Cuneo an almighty beating that day.
Abolitionist is on his
second hurdles run for Dr Newland after being a top handicapper in
Ireland. Won the Leinster National over 3m in mud up Naas hill off this
mark in his Irish days. Moonwalked home in his qualifier and ran as if
the last day was a pipe opener over fences. Will end up in the Grand
National but not a bad pot to pick up en route
2 pts ew Not Many Left 16s
2 pts ew Abolitionist 16s
Kim Muir
I
wrote on Tuesday to lump BTTT (now a NR so cash back) and No Comment.
Disappointed DOC rides Ted's yak (2 error riddled rounds here and at
Leop at C'mas) but still want NC onside. Really against most at top of
market based on ground/trip and think the fav is worst one of the week.
Claims are based on a run here 3 years ago and a comeback in an awful
conditions race. Huge chance of a bounce also that seems to be ignored
completely too. My dad & few mates will choke on their coffee but
Squouateur is a bet at what will be a big price on Betfair. His form is
the alphabet but the bottom line is he was a close third here last year.
Yes Gordon ran him out of the country but Ben Haslem has won with 3 of
the 6 head cases/timebombs that JP has sent him this year. Last year he
was 7/2, this year you can have 40s plus on the machine
Other
arrow is Ah Littleluck. Small trainer but a Grand National winner in
Ire. Angle here is pure and utter stamina and a chase career that looks
like it was built to handicap him well - most runs well short of his
minimum trip of 3m. Re watch his Aintree hurdle run last year and you
see the peleton close on him after making the running but he battles on
to come back for more in third. Or his win the day the Irish National
shouldnt have been run! Huge issue is his two unseats so far. But at 66s
you're not going to get every box ticked. Worth paying the toll incase
last years winning jockey (race for amateurs) doesnt fall off
1.5 pts ew Sqouoateur (betfair if possible)
1.5 pts ew Ah Littleluck 66s
BONUS RACE- 355 Hexham
2 pts ew Total Assets 7/1
4m kelso run is form that has worked out very well. Trip too sharp the last day but stayed on very nicely
410 Chelt - name changes every yr!
Happy
to oppose the CD form of the two favs who had only 8 opponents but are
being credited as if it was the usual field of 16 good handicappers that
that race often is. Going with polar ends of the experience spectrum
here - River Wlyde hasnt faced more than 6 rivals in his three chases
which is a recipe for disaster in a scrap like this. However, if he can
get into a rhythm he could be way ahead of his mark based on the beating
he gave Hells Kitchen and he had the measure of Activial the last day
and that one bounced back to run very well Tues. Win bet only incase his
jumping collapses.
Other one is last years second Splash of
Ginge. Ignore any run of his that doesnt say soft and 2m4 beside it,
therefore all of this year. Two of his last 4 goes here under ideal
conditions have produced runs good enough to win this weak renewal. Two
others were stink. But at 28s, two in four looks perfectly acceptable!
1.5 pt win River Wylde 14s
1 pt ew Splash of Ginge 28s
No comments:
Post a Comment