Ballymore Hurdle:
Feel like Champ has always been a bit overhyped since getting so close to Vinndication on his hurdles debut last year and I don't think his name helps keep expectations under control. For me this is one where the Irish hold the aces. The Lawlor's hurdle in Nass looked a decent race and even though Battleoverdoyen has done nothing wrong all season including when putting that race to bed pretty easily after the last the horse that really stood out that day was Sam's Profile. He made a couple of mistakes got bumped got properly roughed up and kept coming back for more and when everything else was going backwards he was closing all the way to the line. I actually wanted to see him step up to 3m but in these conditions the pace should slow to help improve his jumping and with a premium on toughness they don't look to come much tougher. I like them both but with SP over twice the price of BOD he's the main pick with a little saver on BOD.
Sam Profile 11/1 1.5pts ew
Battleoverdoyen 4/1 .5pts ew
RSA Chase:
It's hard to fault Delta Work who has gone from strength to strength since winning the Pertemps here last year including beating Le Richbourg who would have been a very short fav in the Arkle but for injury. That said one of the performances of the year came from Topofthegame who got left at the start by 20Ls before closing to go down by only 3Ls to Defi de Sueil the JLT fav. His run behind La Bague Au Roi over Christmas wasn't too shabby either. Santini was closing to the line that day but hasn't had an ideal preparation since yet is priced shorter in the market. Of the bigger prices one I expect to outrun their price is Drovers Lane - last seen beating todays 4m winner Le Breuil here over 2m4f in November before having a wind op and being put away for this and I expect a big step up from him tomorrow.
2pts ew Topofthegame 4/1
0.5pts ew Drovers Lane 20/1
Champion Chase:
Hard to really put anything up here. Altior will win and Min will come second. I guess if you get evens on Min betting w/o Altior its not the worst interest bet in the race.
Cross Country:
Tiger Roll looked very good the last day at Navan surprising even his trainer with his well being. If all is well he'll be winning at the festival for the 4th time. That said the best value is in behind him opposing the other Irish runner's for the place market. This used be a race that the Irish owned but this is starting to change of late with strong challenges from both the home contingent and the French raiders. There was an absolute mountain of cash for Amazing Comedy earlier in the winter when he came over for a sighter. Granted he will be carrying 19lbs more this time around but it still seems like they have a lot of confidence that 4th that day wasn't the peak of his running and he'll have his normal jockey back on board tomorrow yet is being quoted in places at 40/1. Of the home challenge Fact of the Matter looks the clear pick and with a win over C&D back in December he is also a bit forgotten about at 18/1
Amazing Comedy .75pts ew 40/1
Fact of the Matter .5pts ew 18/1
Bumper:
Favourite looks very short having won a slow bike race the last day. The proven form is with Envoi Allen and Meticulous. Seems like the second horse should have more scope for improvement and is twice the price so will have a nibble there.
Meticulous .75pts ew 8/1
Handicap Hotshots:
Coral Cup
Race centres around Ruby, Willie & Uradel
who will improve for the step up in trip. However everything has its
price and 5/1 is far too short here for a horse that is clearly well
regarded at home judged on BSPs but is in arguably the most competitive
handicap of the year which is littered with plots and more headgear than
an NFL game!
The betting angle here comes courtesy of CD form
and our beloved wind ops. These procedures to improve breathing now
have to be publicised. I dont have the exact nos to hand but read them
lately and the strike rate off a breathing op are not as hot as was
first envisaged by punters. However they definitely have to be factored
in. We saw this yesterday in the case of Beware the bear who looked
totally exposed before his one, and he won two Cheltenham handicaps
since! Same trainer, same op, same cd angle - William Henry &
Burbank. Beat 2l & 7l in this last year on same ground. Both had one
disappointing run this year and a wind op since. CD form is golden here
and Hendo can clearly cut a horse's throat well so their prices are a
long way off what i made them. More on WH as he did finish ahead last
year when 8/1 Co-fav
2 pts ew William Henry 33/1
1.5 pts ew Burbank 50/1
Fred Winter/Boodles/Whatever they call it
Impossible
race. Again a few cattle & sheep worth of leather straps &
fluffy pieces going on first time here on horses with very few runs, and
hardly any who will have encountered this sort of cavalry charge. Add
in that many have just arrived from France and you have my least fav
betting hcap of the year! Some guys specialise in French racing and
these sort of races. One such man on twitter is @Jinksmarmaduke. He
rates Fanfan Du Seuil a bet here so thats good enough for me
0.5 pts ew Fanfan Du Seuil 16/1
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