Let's Rok

So the blog is going to be set up a little differently this year. My focus is almost entirely on the level weights racing and generally the handicap tips are only really an after thought and in truth probably not that great. So to plug this big gap we've recruited the Handicap King who has been smashing up these races for the past few years to give his top fancies and hopefully boost our profits even further over the week.

I guess the one big thing to mention before cracking into it is how much things have changed over the last few years in terms of finding value. Usually on the Monday of Cheltenham you used to find me hauling a bag of cash around town hitting every bookie within walking distance to hoover up as much value as possible. Those days are sadly gone and after a cursory look around town tonight it was quickly back to my laptop to get my bets down. Now they likely will have some on the spot specials tomorrow but not a lot i can do to guide you on them. For those of you lucky enough to still have online bookie accounts that take e/w bets there is still some great value out there - Will Hill paying on the first 7 home in the supreme and 6 places available in some of the handicaps. I've put up horse below but being patient with a few of them til around 11am tomorrow could be your best strategy as between 11-1 you will get pretty tight markets as various horse get boosted with the bookies looking to get peoples attention.

So on we go!

Supreme:
Quite an open race this year and you could make a reasonable case for 6 or 7. What is not reasonable though is how the Irish runners are priced up - last day in Leopardstown Klassical Dream beat Aramon in a photo finish with Vision D'Honnour 6Ls back yet somehow tomorrow Aramon is 3 times the price of KD and a bigger price even than VDH. Seems to be a horse the market never likes with no money for him either before his Christmas G1 win or for his photo 2nd at the Dublin racing festival. He looked a supreme horse that day despite being beaten and I would take him to just about reverse the placings with KD who I had been looking forward to betting on in the Ballymore before getting re-routed here. My best guess is that Aramon works like a pig at home and only ever comes alive at the track given how surprised the stable has been with his progress. My one concern with him is that I think we may already have seen close to his best - in terms of making a big leap forward I think that we may have seen that in December when he stepped up on his Fairyhouse 3rd to destroy the G1 by 10Ls however there is probably still some more to be seen from him and at a double digit price I will definitely want some ew money on him. Al Dancer is another who we have probably already seen close to his best and although I expect him to run a solid race I think he will find 1 or 2 here too good for him - better horses have won the Betfair hurdle  on higher marks and still come up short in the Supreme than him. Fakir Doudairis looked very impressive the last day in Cheltenham and looks another with a big future but the Supreme is a harder race to win than the triumph even with the wait allowance. I wouldnt put anyone off backing him but for me his price looks about right. The one really exciting horse in the race though is the longtime antepost favourite Angels Breath. This is a horse that I really do expect to make a big leap forward from the last day where I actually thought he rallied impressively at the end showing good temperament and despite a disrupted run up of yard closures and flu jabs he ran pretty much as fast as anything else this year. A fully fit AB could be an absolute beast and despite being edged out of favouritism he looks clearly the most likely winner to me.

1pt ew Aramon 16/1
2pts ew Angels Breath 9/2

Arkle:
So I had a decent cut at Hardline for this a couple of weeks back when he was still a double figure price so I will likely hold off on betting again tomorrow but if I hadn't already backed him I think he still represents the most likely winner tomorrow. Apart from a curious last run he has been in great form all winter giving Us and Them a 10L beating at Navan (which was further than he ever got beat by Le Richbourg) and stepping up in trip he saw off Getabird and given it was Limerick he is also one of the few horses to have won in mud this winter - he probably got a little lucky that day with Getabird making a mistake at the last but once he got half a length up he was not for passing. As usual he will be held up off the pace and don't think anyone will be coming up the hill better. Worth mentioning that Navan is a left handed undulating track with a stiff uphill finish in case that sounds familiar! I generally swerve any horse who is coming here off a short turnaround particularly where they put up a fast time as elite 2m chasers need time to recover from the exertions of pinging fences at such speed which is the main reason I so readily discount Glen Forsa and  Duc de Geneviere but in truth there are a few other holes you could pick in their form and preparation. Kalashnikov has never excelled this season although almost certainly not as bad as he looked the last day but the yards form hasnt gotten any better since so happy to pass on him. Paloma BLue has a bit of class but the jumping errors are hard to ignore. The one other horse I would actually worry about is Lalor who was very impressive both in Aintree last season and Cheltenham first time out this year. Hasn't gone to plan since but  if getting back to that level will give them all something to think about. Given the stable form I'll have a little saver win only on this to limit my losses if Hardline comes up short.

Hardline 1.5pts ew 5/1
Lalor .5pts win 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
A cracking race to watch not a cracking race to bet on though and I will be keeping stakes to a minimum at these prices. Apples Jade has been burning up the track at every distance this season and not hard to see why she is favourite although this is a very different task to what she has been faced with previously. They seem to think they have the issue of her going into season under control this season using a marble but that probably does add a bit of volatility to her performance than needs to be allowed for. Buveur D'air is a 2 time champ although probably been 2 years since he's had to be at his best that said he is the slickest jumper has a good cruising speed and beating Samcro in the autumn was probably his best performance in 18 months. Laurina could be anything but is a horrible price for a horse who has only ever raced on the gallops of Closutton. I just about side with Buveur D'air but worth flagging that most of the people I respect are in the Apples Jade camp. I think the best play here is to be patient - at some point tomorrow there will be 3/1 available on Buveur and taking that e/w is incredible value. Both AJ and Laurina could win but have much more volatile profiles than Buveur who will almost certainly run to somewhere in the mid to high 160s which is almost certain to place. If you get 3/1 ew 1/4 odds  you get a shot to nothing and that seems the best play here.

Wait for Buveur D'air to hit 3/1 then 2pts ew

Mares Hurdle:
My biggest antepost bet ever has been on Roksana here and she is still phenomenal value. A close second behind Santini in a G1 novice hurdle on soft ground at the end of last season the Skelton's have been gentle with here since. Wasn't fully fit when 3rd behind Buveur D'air and Vision de Flos the last day and should progress nicely from there. Benie des Diuex seems a little over-rated on what she achieved last year but possibly has progressed since then, if anyone can produce a horse from nowhere for Cheltenham WPM is the man but taking a lot on trust to be playing here at odds on.

Roksana 3pts ew 8/1

National Hunt Chase:
Market looks clearly wrong here and seems people more concerned about offering a big price for the last leg of a WPM acca than actually pricing the market correctly. OK Corral was 3Ls ahead of Ballyward last year in the Albert Bartlett and always looked like further would suit. Has taken well to fences and was foot perfect when effectively given a schooling session by DOC at Warwick. He should be favourite here and is a clear bet for me against the chalk.

OK Corral 1.5pts ew 4/1

And now for the winners:

Ultima Chase

When God speaks - listen - no, not Gary Twigg, but Simon Rowlands of the Irish Field. He told us in his column post Christmas abut how good the time and sectionals were that Lake View Lad did in his win on Stephens Day. The form of that race has also been boosted by Crosspark & Wakanda. Travels well and is very solid jumper which are very beneficial in a race like this. No evidence to suggest he is finished improving. More rain the better.

A race of this nature requires another poke - Beware the Bear fits the bill. Had looked exposed until New Years Day when he won very nicely over CD after a wind op and change of tactics. Whether he can/wants to dominate from the front in this big a field is unknown, but if he cant lie up he has lots of stamina to stay on in the mud like last year and the wind op angle means there may be more to come. 

Recomm: 1.5pts ew Lake View Lad 22/1

1 pt ew Beware the Bear 16/1

Close Brothers Chase

Novice handicaps not my favourite punting races due to smaller amount of form than usual to access over chosen obstacle so smaller stakes here.  The market has spotted the more obvious ones and acted accordingly. One that is underrated though is Quamino. The improvement angle here comes from the step up in trip. He finished his last two races very strongly and we've seen him handle further before (and Nolan had him entered in 2 x 3m hcap hurdles last yr). The race he won at Leopardstown last time out is a very competitive one each year and only a 6lb higher mark is very fair. Soft ground was no problem in hurdle career

0.5 pts ew Quamino 22/1

Early Bird Catches the Worm.....

Kim Muir Chase - Thursday

Act early and act often here by betting before tomorrow morning's decs come out and pile into the two horses who should be favs here. Its a dream scenario. Couldnt be more against the fav of Elliots who was pumped two years ago in this and is being backed on the back of an ok comeback in an awful race last time and some form from 3 years back. Also, most other serious contenders cant/dont want/have never seen mud - Sky Pirate, Touch Kick, Treacle Tart, Just a Sting & Its All Guesswork. The two who should head the market are BACK TO THE THATCH and NO COMMENT. BTTT is a mud lark with stamina whose last two runs have received huge boosts from RamSes de Teille & Chef d'oeuvre. No Comment has a Timeform P and looks laid out for a big spring handicap after purely not staying 4m here last year.