Friday, 5 April 2019

Fly on the wings of Angels

One of the great spectacles of sport, a true test of many things beyond pure talent, in both horse and jockey. The grand national - 4m 4fs over the country's toughest jumps, it is a test of character and heart as much as stamina and jumping for the horse, and as much a test of courage and craft as horsemanship and balance for the jockeys. One of the few remaining gladiatorial contests, so raw and true that the falafel munching vegans among us demand it should be banned. Never for a second do they realize that to ban horses like Tiger Roll and Anibale Fly from seeking glory over Aintree fences would be as perverse as taking Lance Armstrong's bike away in case he crashed or giving out to Michael Schumacher for speeding on the finishing straight. This is their Everest and we should do nothing but cheer their (often futile and occasionally, but rarely, doomed) attempts to conquer it. I have stopped putting my handicap thoughts up here since recruiting a better sage in that department but for this epic even I have a champion that no wiser man can talk me out of betting. We will get to that shortly but every feast starts with the hors d'oeuvres..

Mersey Novices Hurdle:
A race that looks a match on paper but seems to have the wrong favourite. It's possible that Angels Breath has never been any more than hype. That his supreme run is really as good as he is and that Southfield Stone's flop today should be the final nail in the coffin for his exalted reputation, but I just don't buy that yet. Usually you make your money by being the first to realizse that everybody has been conned and taking the other side, but occasionally there is value in keeping the faith and trying to remember just why you bought the t-shirt in the first place. By this time tomorrow this opinion may seems as ridiculous as a flat earther advising a pilot on how to navigate without the use of a compass but I hope that the horse that crushed the Ascot maiden and turned up to Kempton like Ricky Hatton on a training break but still fought on for a close second can show that same ability back on a flat track and put away the Lee Westwood of novice hurdles - as the RP blurb says Brewinupastorm has kept good company but no more than Lee Westwood at a major he has never overly bothered than company at the business end of things. Once again tomorrow I would expect to see him on the leaderboard but not in contention. Having gone off 6/1 for a deep open supreme, for Angels Breath to be 3/1 in this race seems a big over-reaction to his run the last day and is a definite bet here.

2pts Angels Breath 3/1

Magull's Chase
A much trappier affair with all of the 5 main contenders coming here straight from the Arkle. You would think that that should make Us and Them an easy selection but the Arkle was a tough race which will likely leave its mark on most of these until next season and the one horse to come out of that race without having a hard race is the one that fell half way  - Ornua. His form on the flat track at Sandown behind Dynamite Dollars is as good as anything the others have done and was rated a similar chance as U&T going into the Arkle. Lalor continues to confound and despite the obvious talent no man with any regard for his bank balance could consider punting him at these prices without any evidence of his well being. Leaves it as a straightforward decision to side with Ornua even if the 7 runners mean we have to go all in on the win rather than play him each way.

1.5pts Ornua 11/2

Stayer's Hurdle:
A race that revolves entirely around the well-being of one horse and failing that the soberness of a drunk jockey. If Apple's Jade is right she wins. No questions. The big question is though having flopped at Cheltenham and having flopped at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring is how can we trust her to run well tomorrow. It's a bizarre situation where the shorter the price the happier I am punting her.  The problem last year of her going in season has apparently  been solved by inserting a marble inside her to trick her into thinking she is already pregnant which up until Cheltenham seems to have had benefits above and beyond what was expected. She scoped dirty after Cheltenham which at least means it was a likely a different reason than last year for her off colour performance making a bounce back more likely this time around. Given steady support since the opening prices were announced I'm happy to nibble here although if she starts to drift into the off cutting your loses is probably the wisest move. If she is not right the next best in the race is Sam Spinner although regular blog follower's will know to their cost the price to be paid for not having a coherent or competent pilot on board - SS got the ride he needed in the Cheltenham stayers 1 year too late to matter for backers here and I couldn't commit any serious cash to backing this combo despite the horse obvious talent. Which brings us back to a true hero of the blog - Roksana. Admittedly lucky at Cheltenham she ran a cracker here last year behind Santini in a 3m novice race and looks a very solid place bet. I'm happy enough to just punt the place part on the exchanges but not costing yourself anything betting the each way with the bookies at 10/1.

1pt Apples Jade 7/4
2pts place Roksana 2/1

Grand National:
Tiger Roll is a true tiger, a winner here last year who has done nothing but improve this season destroying a G2 hurdle over 2 1/2m when only out for a jog before cantering to an easy win in the cross country in Cheltenham. It's not hard to see why he's a hot favourite but 9/2 for any horse to win a National is fairly skimpy odds. The Handicap King will have a full run down of the likely contenders but for me this has all been about 1 horse for a long time. I've spent an entire year looking for spots to back Anibale Fly. Last year he place in both the Gold Cup and the Grand National yet any time he was entered for G1's he was always priced as a plodder not likely to trouble the judge. I thought he really would make my Christmas when being priced up 16/1-20/1 for the Lexus at Leopardstown before being pulled due to good ground so still I waited. Then he went to Gowran to race Monalee but over a distance way to short and still I had to sit on my hands. But with winter passing and the festivals on the horizon the wisdom of Shakespeare seemed clear ( with his most misquoted quote)- 'Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this sun'. Having saved our Gold Cup Friday by landing a place bet when improving a place on last years run he now goes to Aintree in better form off a better preparation than last year when he started half the price. I don't normally dabble in the antepost markets for the national but have been chipping away here for a while. When all the slips are counted and accumulated this will end the week my biggest bet of the meeting. He lost his jockey today to a broken leg in the Topham which is defintely a blow but hero status isn't easily earned and tomorrow Anibale can finally earn his wings.

3pts ew Anibale Fly 16/1

I'll hand you over to the real National expert though after that sentimental rant!

Grand National
The best 8.5 mins of the year. Market dominated by Tiger Roll. On his hurdles win & rpr rating from XC at chelt he is a far superior horse this year which should negate the rise in weights. The issue is the price. 4/1 for a small horse who does not front run in a 40 runner field is not my cup of tea. I think Dounikos and Ramses de Teillee are the two overpriced ones to help you enjoy the 8.5 minutes and night after! I had given up on DOUNIKOS until his excellent win the last day. Simon Rowlands clock tells us that his final sectional was quicker than that of Riders on the Storm whose race was a mile shorter that day. Riders is of course no mug as he went off fav in the Close Brothers. That is impressive stuff. Add in the fact he was geared all last year for the 4 miler at Chelt only for a late diversion to the RSA. His novice form before his alphabet meltdown last year is top class and the form in particular of the 2m5 Flogas leaves him well handicapped. Take Rathvinden for eg, Dounikos was a far superior novice up until his spring explosion. Treble the price of Rathvinden here. Of course we aren't sure why he had so many horror runs pre Punchestown but the nature of his win suggests all is well now. With that sectional, evidence he should stay, being well handicapped and being Elliots second string he should be shorter. Unfortunately he has been hammered into this evening but there is still some juice in the 28s. I made him 22s.
RAMSES DE TEILLEE is not fully exposed, stays, handles all ground, jumps well and front runs. Oh, and he is officially 5lb well in since his nk beat at Haydock after the weights were framed. There are a few others in the same boat re their mark but none that tick so many boxes. And none that are this price. Noonan rides instead of Scu but thats only because he has ridden him on his last 4 so don't be put off by that. 
I don't see anything else that is out of line so am happy with just the two

1 pt ew Dounikos 28s
1.5 pts ew Ramses de Teillee 22s

3m Hc Hurdle
Another handicap, another Elliot fav for me to oppose! Sire Du Berlais won at cheltenham but looked beat a long way out and stamina won the day for him. On a speedier track he may not get away with that and I am more than happy to oppose at 4s, even if super claimer Jonjo Jr takes 3 off. The one to oppose with is MIAS STORM. He was a progressive handicap hurdler who ran two top class nov chases before he forgot how to jump and is now back over hurdles this year. His comeback win was comfortable win in a rubbish race and he then won a Mickey Mouse two runner event but like playing Andorra, he has beat what was put in front of him. Just on the basis of his hurdles only form he would be of interest as a progressive handicapper who has been put away for this probably and from a yard which is red hot right now. Add in that he looked destined for stardom as a chaser and that he may be able use that engine to the same effect over hurdles and I made him clear second fav. Market doesn't agree yet so get involved.
A much smaller bet is advised on GUNFLEET, ideally on Betfair if you can. Same idea as Mias, a hurdler we had not seen the bottom of, disappointed over chases (only on his last run in this case and wasn't going from early) after promising a lot and now returns hurdling. He was pulled out late on Sunday due to the road like conditions at Ascot and I am happy to take the wild Betfair prices, and even the 25s with the shops isnt bad ew

3 pts ew Mias Storm 16/1
.75 pts ew Gunfleet 25s (Betfair much higher)


2m Handicap Hurdle
A race for non pro jocks to finish. Best amongst them are obviously Codd & Jonjo Jr. My two selections have a jockey to equal those two and one not so. Donagh Meyler is as good as any and Is Elliots go to go in the Martin pipe race (also a conditional riders race) last two years. Rides KUIPER BELT for Elliot. Drifted like a barge on his return which hinted at a future target. Poor again the last day. For most other trainers you would cross the yak out but Elliot is not any other trainer. He puts on blinkers and gets Meyler. Only a 5yo so could improve for more and at 33s I have to back him.
Bigger bet on Normal Norman with normal jockey Max Kendrick. The reasoning is in the visuals. Watch him go from 3rd last at Chelt in Nov to be beat 8l and watch him take off like a rocket after the last at Muss in his last handicap and you see a lot of ability which hints strongly that there is much more in the tank as the penny finally drops (slightly awkward head carriage those two runs.) Price is teed up beautifully coz market sees two bad beats but they were in G1 & G2 races since Muss. Focus on the two handicap runs for a small trainer with a good decent strike rate. I had him much closer to the top of the market in the most open non Grand National race of the week!
1.5 pts ew Normal Norman 25s
1 pt ew Kuiper belt

3m1 Handicap Chase
Time has run out on me and I haven't got this race done properly so thus wont have people following me in. Do however follow Simon Rowlands in. A far better punter than I will ever be and he's having an incredible few weeks (and days at Aintree). He put up Springtown Lake here

1 pt win Springtown Lake 11s

Thursday, 4 April 2019

All is not lost!

A day of crossbars and tomorrow doesn't get any easier. We won't make our millions tomorrow but hopefully can stop the bleeding at least.

Novice's Hurdle:
This is a tricky puzzle in what looks to be a sub-standard renewal. Itchy Feet may have come out on top of those here that contested the Supreme but broke blood vessels that day and out again with a 3 week turnaround so i think its pretty optimistic to think he'll be seen at his best. The price on Precious Cargo bears no reflection of what he's actually done on the track to date and one I'm happy to swerve. That brings us back to an old favourite - Aramon. He's not spectacular but he is solid and seems to love racing having been on the go since the end of the summer. Wasn't much between him and Felix Desjy the last day but on the balance of what they've done I'd have a small preference still for the much more reliable Aramon. Of the rest Rouge Vif has conditions to suit here but even in a sub par renewal he should only be contesting the place money. The fly in the ointment though could be Southfield Stone who never got the credit he deserved for beating Angels Breath. Comes here fresh having skipped Cheltenham and his run that day puts him right in the reckoning here. At twice the price of the guys who battled through the Cheltenham slog he looks a great price to make the frame. His Tolworth 3rd also puts him pretty close to a fully fit Itchy Feet. Unfortunately the field has cut up so only 2 places so have to play both win only

2pts win Southfield Stone 9/1
0.5pts win Aramon 9/2

Mildmay Chase
One of those horrible races where you end up backing one horse in match where you are convinced that the other one will actually win purely off the price differential. Topofthegame should win this and was very impressive at Cheltenham putting himself to the fore as a contender for next years Gold Cup. Lostintranslation also put up a great performance when doing nothing wrong in defeat against Defi du Seuil. TOTG is probably only marginally the better horse but at this level the margins are very fine unfortunately. That said I can't let LIT go off 3-4 times the price unbacked.

1pt Lostintranslation 7/2

Melling Chase
Min wan't himself the last day and would expect him to turn around the form against Politilogue and Hell's Kitchen. When coming up with Politilogue's price it seems fairly certain they concentrated more on the fact that he finished 1.5Ls behind a below par Altior than the fact that he finished only 1.5Ls ahead of Sceau Royal which I think gives a much fairer reflection of what he achieved that day. For all that though I am never particularly keen on 2-2.5m chasers having such a quick turnaround at the highest level and the clear pick here is Waiting Patiently who is coming in off a perfect 6 week break since he had the misfortune to bump into the clock shattering Cyrname the last time out (when he had Politilogue 3Ls behind).

2pts Waiting Patiently 15/8

Sefton Hurdle
Enough known unknowns here to give Donald Rumsfeld a lifetime of insomnia. Most of the good ones here tackling 3m for the first time on ground as soft as anything they've encountered all season. So groping in the dark to a large extent like a young Joe Biden on this. Lisnagar Oscar is one of the few to have tackled the trip but was quite disappointed with his Cheltenham performance and with so many better horse stepping up in trip it seems likely a minimum of one of them will stay well enough to beat him. I've had to upgrade Champ a good bit for his run at Cheltenham despite getting beat and if staying the extra half mile he could be tough to beat but the one I prefer to take a chance on is Emitom who smashed Lisnagar Oscar at the start of the season and looks to be improving still. The Henderson horse he beat the last day giving nearly a stone seems sure to go on to better things and they were well clear of 3rd.

1pt ew Emitom 9/2

Tomorrow is a day that favours the Handicap King though than a level weights punters so tomorrows real pearls of wisdom are below

2m4 hc h
I am in line with the market on nearly everything here so no major assault. The fav is exceptionally well handicapped (last run - the next 4 have all boosted the form) to show that 6lb probably won't be enough to stop this unexposed sort. But having missed the gamble yest (12s opening show) I can't take 4s now. The horse that is impossible to gauge is Hendo's French import KOBROUK. Gambrose has long espoused the theory that the UK market bets patriotically and underrates these French imports and I agree. His old French form is top class, has won off a big break before, will like the ground and will probably drift. If you can't wait, 16s isn't bad with those positives to his name. One other horse that is worthy of a small ew play is CALTEX. Ex Gordon Elliot, he is probably a better chaser than hurdler but we have a small hurdle sample to work off and maybe he just improved with time while chasing. If he is as good over hurdles he has a chance based on his CD soft ground 2nd to Ballyhill in a handicap chase in Dec where they finished 18l clear of the rest
1 pt ew Kobrouk 16s
0.25 pts ew Caltex 66s

Topham Chase
One of the top sporting/racing/betting events of the year. A million horses going way too fast over jumbo novelty fences! Lets roll!
Angle I look for here is try to find well handicapped overpriced nags as always, but a huge added bonus is form over the fences, particularly if a front runner (huge edge over Nat fences). Janika could well destroy the race on softer ground & Call It Magic has massive chance based on his Beecher run and the rain but their prices seem right. One who isn't imo is ACTIVIAL. Gets 13lb for 19l beating off Janika 2 runs back but was far better in the Ultima the last day when beat 7l which is top handicap form. Is a clean jumping front runner too while his nemesis Janiika has tended to sit mid div which can leave you dodging more landmines than Princess Di on a charity trip. 
Another overpriced yak is from the same stable - DOUBLE SHUFFLE. As good as ever at Kempton in Feb (even if front runners got it a bit easy), handles any ground and ran a blinder upfront till failing to get the 4 miles plus in the 2017 national. Ignore his over ambitious GC attempt.
If you are a total degenerate like me and want another one in this cavalry charge, take tried and tested course specialist HIGHLAND LODGE over what is probably a more suitable trip than his beloved Beecher for him. Fell in Dec but was probably lit up after running loose beforehand. Just like the FAI board, age and length of service tend to be irrelevant over these great fences with 14 year olds even getting in on the act in recent years.
I would have more on the first two if you just want two though as I think their prices are more inaccurate than his.
1.5 pts ew Activial 25/1
1.5 pts ew Double Shuffle 33/1
1 pt ew Highland Lodge 28/1

Wednesday, 3 April 2019

Aintree Day1

The Thursday of Aintree is one of the great days of jumps racing - 4 grade 1's a grade 2 and a super competitive handicap which is why it makes me nearly feel dirty to admit that amidst all of this quality here I am salivating like a rabid dog in the desert sun over the Foxhunter's Chase but more of that later- I guess I should probably save the halftime circus act for later and crack on with the main events!

Manifesto Chase:
This promises to be a cracker of a contest with both La Bague Au Roi and Glen Forsa bowling along out front jumping the rest of the field into submission. Kalashnikov has never shown the same level of ability over fences as last year over hurdles and even though Mengli Khan put in his best performance to date the last time behind  Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation but seem to be just short of top class. Glen Forsa was very impressive when destroying Kalashnikov in a match back in February but he still has to step up to reach the level of form that the battle hardened LBAR showed at Kempton over Christmas when beating Topofthegame and Santini. She deliberately side stepped Cheltenham to concentrate on more suitable tracks and expect her to put in a big performance tomorrow. Experience plus her mares allowance should ensure she maintains her unbeaten record over fences.

2pts win La Bague Au Roi 7/4

Doom Bar Hurdle:
Very interesting race with 2 Cheltenham winners and the Supreme 4th dominating the betting. Have my doubts about just how strong the Triumph turned out to be after the ill fated Sir Erec broke down so hard to fancy Pentland Hills to follow up at these prices. Joseph O'Brien has the other main contenders and people are probably being overly harsh on Fakir D'Oudairies who put in a very solid performance to finish 4th in the Supreme as a 4 yo. Given the yard pecking order before Cheltenham it is unlikely that the current prices can be a fair reflection of their relative abilities and of the top 3 Fakir D'Oudairies looks the clear pick to me...I was pretty sure that was as far as I needed to go in analysing this one until I spotted a curious horse down in the rags of the tissue - Song for Somebody. He smashed up Praeceps over Christmas (who ran a decent race in 6th behind Band of Outlaws at Cheltenham) and then stepped up on that winning cosily at Warwick the last day. Still improving and flying a bit under the radar due to skipping Cheltenham the 28/1 doesn't really look a fair reflection of his chances of making a further step up.

1.5pts ew Song for Someone 28/1
0.5pts ew Fakir D'Oudairies 4/1

Aintree Bowl:
The best race to watch is often the worst to punt on and so it seems with tomorrows highlight. You could make a reasonable case of any of the main contenders which means given the open nature of the betting that the prices are probably not that far off. Bristol de Mai is probably the most talented and would be my marginal pick of the 3 - he ran a great race here last year behind Might Bite and his Haydock win was top class on top of finishing clear of CdO in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, If it wasn't for his inconsistency he would be a clear bet but will be keeping stake to a minimum at these prices. Clan des Obeaux should get closer with less of a stamina test but hard to make him significantly shorter of a horse that has beaten him fair and square on the 2 occasions he completed against him this season. Kemboy could come into things if he's committed to the front early again but despite a great run at Christmas still has to prove he is in the same class as the other 2 and being priced more on expectation than evidence so far.

0.5pt win Bristol De Mai 7/2

Aintree Hurdle:
No need to call Bletchley Park to crack this one - this is as simple as it gets. Buveur D'air  is the class of the field by a long way. At his best he has a stone on Melon and even on a bad day he'll find a way to beat him. That his main market rival is an 11 yo (who is admittedly fighting the ravages of time courageously) says it all about the strength of depth here. Not quite compensation for losing his Cheltenham crown but can show he is still the 2m hurdler to beat here.

3pts Buveur D'air 10/11

Foxhunters:
Finally the one you've all been waiting for, an amateur rider's race at lightening speed over the National fences. A race where you check the jockeys name before you check the horse's because half of these guys couldn't win on Pegasus himself - for them getting home with their collarbone intact is an achievement in itself and to a certain extent their main goals from the outset. We have 27 horses but once you've drawn a line through any of the jockey names that sound like the slightly dotty woman your granny used to have over for tea or some lord who is out for a day on the hunt before launching his Tory leadership challenge, the game gets a whole lot easier. Once you've whittled this down to about 8 names you then scan to the bottom of the oddschecker page and see that bookies, in an attempt to keep peoples attention after the superstars have finished up for the day, have somehow decided to pay 5 places! I'd find it hard to fault the logic of backing all the remaining horses on your list each way on those terms but I can sense the grumbles in the gallery at suggesting such a scattergun approach so I will reluctantly pass over Road to Rome and Kruzlinnin and stick to the old reliables of JJ Codd and Derek O'Connor. Ucello Conti has looked great all year until never really getting involved at Cheltenham. Knows his way around these fences and although 2m 5f is a little on the short side he should have the class to get involved. Hopefully he'll get sent to the front alongside R2R and avoid the mayhem in behind. Trip is less of an issue with Burning Ambition as he looked like he didn't quite stay in Cheltenham last year when sent off favourite. Both have jockeys to get them round in contention and hopefully one of them can get the job done. Further down the list in the realms of the lords and ladies there is one horse who should also be nibbled at at a big price. Greensalt was 3rd last year at a big price and aims to repeat the trick this year at a similar price - at 40/1 I wouldnt want to bet against it.

1.5pts ew Ucello Conti 8/1
1.5pts ew Burning Ambition 5/1
0.5pts ew Greensalt 40/1

For the Red Rum I'll pass you over to the Handicap King for the solution:

We go back to some of our old Chelt reliables here for the selections - wind ops and a Nicky trained horse. The Hendo trained horse is Theinval who 'saves his best for this time of year' it seems. The beauty of this is that his handicap mark magically tumbles back to a winnable one again each yr- amazing that! He was 2nd in this last yr off 5 lower and beat 3l - doesn't sound great until you see that was on soft ground and he was 18l clear of the third! Previous year he was also second off 2lb lower. He also 'finds himself' only 2lb higher than the mark he won at at Ayr last year. All in, 'his time of year', on a course he loves (won handicap hurdle here at 2016 fez too) and is back to a perfect mark. Went off 8s & 6s on BF the last two years. Hammer him
The other one is well travelled Azzuri who is in his 4th home. He is a front runner who loves good ground and has just had a wind op after 3 bizarrely close together runs in February which conveniently dropped him 12lb! He's now back at the mark he won a Killarney handicap chase by 10l off when in Richard Obriens care. This all reeks of a Ch'tibello style plot by the same connections. Get involved. 
The current fav is the Pipe trained Eamon an Cnoic. Trip seemed too much for him over 2m4 chelt. However he has yet to prove he can do it off this mark at this trip while the above two have had their year geared towards this and are on perfect marks. Cant have Brelan D'as at a speed track like this at his price

2.5 pts ew Theinval 
1.5 pts ew Azzuri