Mersey Novices Hurdle:
A race that looks a match on paper but seems to have the wrong favourite. It's possible that Angels Breath has never been any more than hype. That his supreme run is really as good as he is and that Southfield Stone's flop today should be the final nail in the coffin for his exalted reputation, but I just don't buy that yet. Usually you make your money by being the first to realizse that everybody has been conned and taking the other side, but occasionally there is value in keeping the faith and trying to remember just why you bought the t-shirt in the first place. By this time tomorrow this opinion may seems as ridiculous as a flat earther advising a pilot on how to navigate without the use of a compass but I hope that the horse that crushed the Ascot maiden and turned up to Kempton like Ricky Hatton on a training break but still fought on for a close second can show that same ability back on a flat track and put away the Lee Westwood of novice hurdles - as the RP blurb says Brewinupastorm has kept good company but no more than Lee Westwood at a major he has never overly bothered than company at the business end of things. Once again tomorrow I would expect to see him on the leaderboard but not in contention. Having gone off 6/1 for a deep open supreme, for Angels Breath to be 3/1 in this race seems a big over-reaction to his run the last day and is a definite bet here.
2pts Angels Breath 3/1
Magull's Chase
A much trappier affair with all of the 5 main contenders coming here straight from the Arkle. You would think that that should make Us and Them an easy selection but the Arkle was a tough race which will likely leave its mark on most of these until next season and the one horse to come out of that race without having a hard race is the one that fell half way - Ornua. His form on the flat track at Sandown behind Dynamite Dollars is as good as anything the others have done and was rated a similar chance as U&T going into the Arkle. Lalor continues to confound and despite the obvious talent no man with any regard for his bank balance could consider punting him at these prices without any evidence of his well being. Leaves it as a straightforward decision to side with Ornua even if the 7 runners mean we have to go all in on the win rather than play him each way.
1.5pts Ornua 11/2
Stayer's Hurdle:
A race that revolves entirely around the well-being of one horse and failing that the soberness of a drunk jockey. If Apple's Jade is right she wins. No questions. The big question is though having flopped at Cheltenham and having flopped at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring is how can we trust her to run well tomorrow. It's a bizarre situation where the shorter the price the happier I am punting her. The problem last year of her going in season has apparently been solved by inserting a marble inside her to trick her into thinking she is already pregnant which up until Cheltenham seems to have had benefits above and beyond what was expected. She scoped dirty after Cheltenham which at least means it was a likely a different reason than last year for her off colour performance making a bounce back more likely this time around. Given steady support since the opening prices were announced I'm happy to nibble here although if she starts to drift into the off cutting your loses is probably the wisest move. If she is not right the next best in the race is Sam Spinner although regular blog follower's will know to their cost the price to be paid for not having a coherent or competent pilot on board - SS got the ride he needed in the Cheltenham stayers 1 year too late to matter for backers here and I couldn't commit any serious cash to backing this combo despite the horse obvious talent. Which brings us back to a true hero of the blog - Roksana. Admittedly lucky at Cheltenham she ran a cracker here last year behind Santini in a 3m novice race and looks a very solid place bet. I'm happy enough to just punt the place part on the exchanges but not costing yourself anything betting the each way with the bookies at 10/1.
1pt Apples Jade 7/4
2pts place Roksana 2/1
Grand National:
Tiger Roll is a true tiger, a winner here last year who has done nothing but improve this season destroying a G2 hurdle over 2 1/2m when only out for a jog before cantering to an easy win in the cross country in Cheltenham. It's not hard to see why he's a hot favourite but 9/2 for any horse to win a National is fairly skimpy odds. The Handicap King will have a full run down of the likely contenders but for me this has all been about 1 horse for a long time. I've spent an entire year looking for spots to back Anibale Fly. Last year he place in both the Gold Cup and the Grand National yet any time he was entered for G1's he was always priced as a plodder not likely to trouble the judge. I thought he really would make my Christmas when being priced up 16/1-20/1 for the Lexus at Leopardstown before being pulled due to good ground so still I waited. Then he went to Gowran to race Monalee but over a distance way to short and still I had to sit on my hands. But with winter passing and the festivals on the horizon the wisdom of Shakespeare seemed clear ( with his most misquoted quote)- 'Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this sun'. Having saved our Gold Cup Friday by landing a place bet when improving a place on last years run he now goes to Aintree in better form off a better preparation than last year when he started half the price. I don't normally dabble in the antepost markets for the national but have been chipping away here for a while. When all the slips are counted and accumulated this will end the week my biggest bet of the meeting. He lost his jockey today to a broken leg in the Topham which is defintely a blow but hero status isn't easily earned and tomorrow Anibale can finally earn his wings.
3pts ew Anibale Fly 16/1
I'll hand you over to the real National expert though after that sentimental rant!
Grand National
The best 8.5 mins of the year. Market
dominated by Tiger Roll. On his hurdles win & rpr rating from XC at
chelt he is a far superior horse this year which should negate the rise
in weights. The issue is the price. 4/1 for a small horse who does not
front run in a 40 runner field is not my cup of tea. I think Dounikos
and Ramses de Teillee are the two overpriced ones to help you enjoy the
8.5 minutes and night after! I had given up on DOUNIKOS until his
excellent win the last day. Simon Rowlands clock tells us that his final
sectional was quicker than that of Riders on the Storm whose race was a
mile shorter that day. Riders is of course no mug as he went off fav in
the Close Brothers. That is impressive stuff. Add in the fact he was
geared all last year for the 4 miler at Chelt only for a late diversion
to the RSA. His novice form before his alphabet meltdown last year is
top class and the form in particular of the 2m5 Flogas leaves him well
handicapped. Take Rathvinden for eg, Dounikos was a far superior novice
up until his spring explosion. Treble the price of Rathvinden here. Of
course we aren't sure why he had so many horror runs pre Punchestown but
the nature of his win suggests all is well now. With that sectional,
evidence he should stay, being well handicapped and being Elliots second
string he should be shorter. Unfortunately he has been hammered into
this evening but there is still some juice in the 28s. I made him 22s.
RAMSES
DE TEILLEE is not fully exposed, stays, handles all ground, jumps well
and front runs. Oh, and he is officially 5lb well in since his nk beat
at Haydock after the weights were framed. There are a few others in the
same boat re their mark but none that tick so many boxes. And none that
are this price. Noonan rides instead of Scu but thats only because he
has ridden him on his last 4 so don't be put off by that.
I don't see anything else that is out of line so am happy with just the two
1 pt ew Dounikos 28s
1.5 pts ew Ramses de Teillee 22s
3m Hc Hurdle
Another
handicap, another Elliot fav for me to oppose! Sire Du Berlais won at
cheltenham but looked beat a long way out and stamina won the day for
him. On a speedier track he may not get away with that and I am more
than happy to oppose at 4s, even if super claimer Jonjo Jr takes 3 off.
The one to oppose with is MIAS STORM. He was a progressive handicap
hurdler who ran two top class nov chases before he forgot how to jump
and is now back over hurdles this year. His comeback win was comfortable
win in a rubbish race and he then won a Mickey Mouse two runner event
but like playing Andorra, he has beat what was put in front of him. Just
on the basis of his hurdles only form he would be of interest as a
progressive handicapper who has been put away for this probably and from
a yard which is red hot right now. Add in that he looked destined for
stardom as a chaser and that he may be able use that engine to the same
effect over hurdles and I made him clear second fav. Market doesn't
agree yet so get involved.
A much smaller bet is advised on
GUNFLEET, ideally on Betfair if you can. Same idea as Mias, a hurdler we
had not seen the bottom of, disappointed over chases (only on his last
run in this case and wasn't going from early) after promising a lot and
now returns hurdling. He was pulled out late on Sunday due to the road
like conditions at Ascot and I am happy to take the wild Betfair prices,
and even the 25s with the shops isnt bad ew
3 pts ew Mias Storm 16/1
.75 pts ew Gunfleet 25s (Betfair much higher)
2m Handicap Hurdle
A
race for non pro jocks to finish. Best amongst them are obviously Codd
& Jonjo Jr. My two selections have a jockey to equal those two and
one not so. Donagh Meyler is as good as any and Is Elliots go to go in
the Martin pipe race (also a conditional riders race) last two years.
Rides KUIPER BELT for Elliot. Drifted like a barge on his return which
hinted at a future target. Poor again the last day. For most other
trainers you would cross the yak out but Elliot is not any other
trainer. He puts on blinkers and gets Meyler. Only a 5yo so could
improve for more and at 33s I have to back him.
Bigger bet on
Normal Norman with normal jockey Max Kendrick. The reasoning is in the
visuals. Watch him go from 3rd last at Chelt in Nov to be beat 8l and
watch him take off like a rocket after the last at Muss in his last
handicap and you see a lot of ability which hints strongly that there is
much more in the tank as the penny finally drops (slightly awkward head
carriage those two runs.) Price is teed up beautifully coz market sees
two bad beats but they were in G1 & G2 races since Muss. Focus on
the two handicap runs for a small trainer with a good decent strike
rate. I had him much closer to the top of the market in the most open
non Grand National race of the week!
1.5 pts ew Normal Norman 25s
1 pt ew Kuiper belt
3m1 Handicap Chase
Time
has run out on me and I haven't got this race done properly so thus
wont have people following me in. Do however follow Simon Rowlands in. A
far better punter than I will ever be and he's having an incredible few
weeks (and days at Aintree). He put up Springtown Lake here
1 pt win Springtown Lake 11s
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