Novice's Hurdle:
This is a tricky puzzle in what looks to be a sub-standard renewal. Itchy Feet may have come out on top of those here that contested the Supreme but broke blood vessels that day and out again with a 3 week turnaround so i think its pretty optimistic to think he'll be seen at his best. The price on Precious Cargo bears no reflection of what he's actually done on the track to date and one I'm happy to swerve. That brings us back to an old favourite - Aramon. He's not spectacular but he is solid and seems to love racing having been on the go since the end of the summer. Wasn't much between him and Felix Desjy the last day but on the balance of what they've done I'd have a small preference still for the much more reliable Aramon. Of the rest Rouge Vif has conditions to suit here but even in a sub par renewal he should only be contesting the place money. The fly in the ointment though could be Southfield Stone who never got the credit he deserved for beating Angels Breath. Comes here fresh having skipped Cheltenham and his run that day puts him right in the reckoning here. At twice the price of the guys who battled through the Cheltenham slog he looks a great price to make the frame. His Tolworth 3rd also puts him pretty close to a fully fit Itchy Feet. Unfortunately the field has cut up so only 2 places so have to play both win only
2pts win Southfield Stone 9/1
0.5pts win Aramon 9/2
Mildmay Chase
One of those horrible races where you end up backing one horse in match where you are convinced that the other one will actually win purely off the price differential. Topofthegame should win this and was very impressive at Cheltenham putting himself to the fore as a contender for next years Gold Cup. Lostintranslation also put up a great performance when doing nothing wrong in defeat against Defi du Seuil. TOTG is probably only marginally the better horse but at this level the margins are very fine unfortunately. That said I can't let LIT go off 3-4 times the price unbacked.
1pt Lostintranslation 7/2
Melling Chase
Min wan't himself the last day and would expect him to turn around the form against Politilogue and Hell's Kitchen. When coming up with Politilogue's price it seems fairly certain they concentrated more on the fact that he finished 1.5Ls behind a below par Altior than the fact that he finished only 1.5Ls ahead of Sceau Royal which I think gives a much fairer reflection of what he achieved that day. For all that though I am never particularly keen on 2-2.5m chasers having such a quick turnaround at the highest level and the clear pick here is Waiting Patiently who is coming in off a perfect 6 week break since he had the misfortune to bump into the clock shattering Cyrname the last time out (when he had Politilogue 3Ls behind).
2pts Waiting Patiently 15/8
Sefton Hurdle
Enough known unknowns here to give Donald Rumsfeld a lifetime of insomnia. Most of the good ones here tackling 3m for the first time on ground as soft as anything they've encountered all season. So groping in the dark to a large extent like a young Joe Biden on this. Lisnagar Oscar is one of the few to have tackled the trip but was quite disappointed with his Cheltenham performance and with so many better horse stepping up in trip it seems likely a minimum of one of them will stay well enough to beat him. I've had to upgrade Champ a good bit for his run at Cheltenham despite getting beat and if staying the extra half mile he could be tough to beat but the one I prefer to take a chance on is Emitom who smashed Lisnagar Oscar at the start of the season and looks to be improving still. The Henderson horse he beat the last day giving nearly a stone seems sure to go on to better things and they were well clear of 3rd.
1pt ew Emitom 9/2
Tomorrow is a day that favours the Handicap King though than a level weights punters so tomorrows real pearls of wisdom are below
2m4 hc h
I am in line with the market on nearly
everything here so no major assault. The fav is exceptionally well
handicapped (last run - the next 4 have all boosted the form) to show
that 6lb probably won't be enough to stop this unexposed sort. But
having missed the gamble yest (12s opening show) I can't take 4s now.
The horse that is impossible to gauge is Hendo's French import KOBROUK.
Gambrose has long espoused the theory that the UK market bets
patriotically and underrates these French imports and I agree. His old
French form is top class, has won off a big break before, will like the
ground and will probably drift. If you can't wait, 16s isn't bad with
those positives to his name. One other horse that is worthy of a small
ew play is CALTEX. Ex Gordon Elliot, he is probably a better chaser than
hurdler but we have a small hurdle sample to work off and maybe he just
improved with time while chasing. If he is as good over hurdles he has a
chance based on his CD soft ground 2nd to Ballyhill in a handicap chase
in Dec where they finished 18l clear of the rest
1 pt ew Kobrouk 16s
0.25 pts ew Caltex 66s
Topham Chase
One
of the top sporting/racing/betting events of the year. A million horses
going way too fast over jumbo novelty fences! Lets roll!
Angle
I look for here is try to find well handicapped overpriced nags as
always, but a huge added bonus is form over the fences, particularly if a
front runner (huge edge over Nat fences). Janika could well destroy the
race on softer ground & Call It Magic has massive chance based on
his Beecher run and the rain but their prices seem right. One who isn't
imo is ACTIVIAL. Gets 13lb for 19l beating off Janika 2 runs back but
was far better in the Ultima the last day when beat 7l which is top
handicap form. Is a clean jumping front runner too while his nemesis
Janiika has tended to sit mid div which can leave you dodging more
landmines than Princess Di on a charity trip.
Another
overpriced yak is from the same stable - DOUBLE SHUFFLE. As good as ever
at Kempton in Feb (even if front runners got it a bit easy), handles
any ground and ran a blinder upfront till failing to get the 4 miles
plus in the 2017 national. Ignore his over ambitious GC attempt.
If
you are a total degenerate like me and want another one in this cavalry
charge, take tried and tested course specialist HIGHLAND LODGE over
what is probably a more suitable trip than his beloved Beecher for him.
Fell in Dec but was probably lit up after running loose beforehand. Just
like the FAI board, age and length of service tend to be irrelevant
over these great fences with 14 year olds even getting in on the act in
recent years.
I would have more on the first two if you just want two though as I think their prices are more inaccurate than his.
1.5 pts ew Activial 25/1
1.5 pts ew Double Shuffle 33/1
1 pt ew Highland Lodge 28/1
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