Aintree Day1

The Thursday of Aintree is one of the great days of jumps racing - 4 grade 1's a grade 2 and a super competitive handicap which is why it makes me nearly feel dirty to admit that amidst all of this quality here I am salivating like a rabid dog in the desert sun over the Foxhunter's Chase but more of that later- I guess I should probably save the halftime circus act for later and crack on with the main events!

Manifesto Chase:
This promises to be a cracker of a contest with both La Bague Au Roi and Glen Forsa bowling along out front jumping the rest of the field into submission. Kalashnikov has never shown the same level of ability over fences as last year over hurdles and even though Mengli Khan put in his best performance to date the last time behind  Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation but seem to be just short of top class. Glen Forsa was very impressive when destroying Kalashnikov in a match back in February but he still has to step up to reach the level of form that the battle hardened LBAR showed at Kempton over Christmas when beating Topofthegame and Santini. She deliberately side stepped Cheltenham to concentrate on more suitable tracks and expect her to put in a big performance tomorrow. Experience plus her mares allowance should ensure she maintains her unbeaten record over fences.

2pts win La Bague Au Roi 7/4

Doom Bar Hurdle:
Very interesting race with 2 Cheltenham winners and the Supreme 4th dominating the betting. Have my doubts about just how strong the Triumph turned out to be after the ill fated Sir Erec broke down so hard to fancy Pentland Hills to follow up at these prices. Joseph O'Brien has the other main contenders and people are probably being overly harsh on Fakir D'Oudairies who put in a very solid performance to finish 4th in the Supreme as a 4 yo. Given the yard pecking order before Cheltenham it is unlikely that the current prices can be a fair reflection of their relative abilities and of the top 3 Fakir D'Oudairies looks the clear pick to me...I was pretty sure that was as far as I needed to go in analysing this one until I spotted a curious horse down in the rags of the tissue - Song for Somebody. He smashed up Praeceps over Christmas (who ran a decent race in 6th behind Band of Outlaws at Cheltenham) and then stepped up on that winning cosily at Warwick the last day. Still improving and flying a bit under the radar due to skipping Cheltenham the 28/1 doesn't really look a fair reflection of his chances of making a further step up.

1.5pts ew Song for Someone 28/1
0.5pts ew Fakir D'Oudairies 4/1

Aintree Bowl:
The best race to watch is often the worst to punt on and so it seems with tomorrows highlight. You could make a reasonable case of any of the main contenders which means given the open nature of the betting that the prices are probably not that far off. Bristol de Mai is probably the most talented and would be my marginal pick of the 3 - he ran a great race here last year behind Might Bite and his Haydock win was top class on top of finishing clear of CdO in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, If it wasn't for his inconsistency he would be a clear bet but will be keeping stake to a minimum at these prices. Clan des Obeaux should get closer with less of a stamina test but hard to make him significantly shorter of a horse that has beaten him fair and square on the 2 occasions he completed against him this season. Kemboy could come into things if he's committed to the front early again but despite a great run at Christmas still has to prove he is in the same class as the other 2 and being priced more on expectation than evidence so far.

0.5pt win Bristol De Mai 7/2

Aintree Hurdle:
No need to call Bletchley Park to crack this one - this is as simple as it gets. Buveur D'air  is the class of the field by a long way. At his best he has a stone on Melon and even on a bad day he'll find a way to beat him. That his main market rival is an 11 yo (who is admittedly fighting the ravages of time courageously) says it all about the strength of depth here. Not quite compensation for losing his Cheltenham crown but can show he is still the 2m hurdler to beat here.

3pts Buveur D'air 10/11

Foxhunters:
Finally the one you've all been waiting for, an amateur rider's race at lightening speed over the National fences. A race where you check the jockeys name before you check the horse's because half of these guys couldn't win on Pegasus himself - for them getting home with their collarbone intact is an achievement in itself and to a certain extent their main goals from the outset. We have 27 horses but once you've drawn a line through any of the jockey names that sound like the slightly dotty woman your granny used to have over for tea or some lord who is out for a day on the hunt before launching his Tory leadership challenge, the game gets a whole lot easier. Once you've whittled this down to about 8 names you then scan to the bottom of the oddschecker page and see that bookies, in an attempt to keep peoples attention after the superstars have finished up for the day, have somehow decided to pay 5 places! I'd find it hard to fault the logic of backing all the remaining horses on your list each way on those terms but I can sense the grumbles in the gallery at suggesting such a scattergun approach so I will reluctantly pass over Road to Rome and Kruzlinnin and stick to the old reliables of JJ Codd and Derek O'Connor. Ucello Conti has looked great all year until never really getting involved at Cheltenham. Knows his way around these fences and although 2m 5f is a little on the short side he should have the class to get involved. Hopefully he'll get sent to the front alongside R2R and avoid the mayhem in behind. Trip is less of an issue with Burning Ambition as he looked like he didn't quite stay in Cheltenham last year when sent off favourite. Both have jockeys to get them round in contention and hopefully one of them can get the job done. Further down the list in the realms of the lords and ladies there is one horse who should also be nibbled at at a big price. Greensalt was 3rd last year at a big price and aims to repeat the trick this year at a similar price - at 40/1 I wouldnt want to bet against it.

1.5pts ew Ucello Conti 8/1
1.5pts ew Burning Ambition 5/1
0.5pts ew Greensalt 40/1

For the Red Rum I'll pass you over to the Handicap King for the solution:

We go back to some of our old Chelt reliables here for the selections - wind ops and a Nicky trained horse. The Hendo trained horse is Theinval who 'saves his best for this time of year' it seems. The beauty of this is that his handicap mark magically tumbles back to a winnable one again each yr- amazing that! He was 2nd in this last yr off 5 lower and beat 3l - doesn't sound great until you see that was on soft ground and he was 18l clear of the third! Previous year he was also second off 2lb lower. He also 'finds himself' only 2lb higher than the mark he won at at Ayr last year. All in, 'his time of year', on a course he loves (won handicap hurdle here at 2016 fez too) and is back to a perfect mark. Went off 8s & 6s on BF the last two years. Hammer him

The other one is well travelled Azzuri who is in his 4th home. He is a front runner who loves good ground and has just had a wind op after 3 bizarrely close together runs in February which conveniently dropped him 12lb! He's now back at the mark he won a Killarney handicap chase by 10l off when in Richard Obriens care. This all reeks of a Ch'tibello style plot by the same connections. Get involved. 

The current fav is the Pipe trained Eamon an Cnoic. Trip seemed too much for him over 2m4 chelt. However he has yet to prove he can do it off this mark at this trip while the above two have had their year geared towards this and are on perfect marks. Cant have Brelan D'as at a speed track like this at his price

2.5 pts ew Theinval 

1.5 pts ew Azzuri