Marsh Chase:
Quickly boils down to a choice between Mister Fisher and Faugheen in my book. Mister Fisher doesn't get the credit he deserves for his winter exploits and head rules the heart here so I just about pass on backing Faugheen who has run a couple of crackers (including smashing Samcro by 10Ls - who is shorter tomorrow).
2pts wins Mister Fisher 6/1
Ryanair Chase:
Second in a Supreme and a Champion Chase Min has had the misfortune to always run into a superstar on the big days. A Plus Tard is very good but also just short of Championship class. Seems a easy call to side with Min given the prices.
3pts win Min 11/4
Stayer's Hurdle
Summerville Boy has been coming back to the horse that turbo charged up the hill to win the Supreme a few years back. Paisley Park is a below standard champion and the rest of the field is like a legends 5-a-side team.
1.5pts e/w Summerville Boy 9/1
Mare's Novice Hurdle
The overnight plunge on Concertista makes the value everywhere. Minella Melody probably should be close to half the price she is having done everything with a minimum of fuss all winter. Given the form of Seven Barrows it's probably fine to have a saver on Floressa at bigger prices.
3pts Minella Melody 3/1
0.5pts ew Floressa
Pertemps
just like Shane long and will Griggs in days of old, Nicky Henderson is...... All his nags will shorten in coming days and I think his WELSH SAINT should have been favourite here anyway. With Nicky struggling to quench his own flames, he will now surely be fav. He won his handicap debut at Haydock in what was also his 3m debut. So he arrives here perfectly unexposed, yet proven over the trip, on undulating tracks and on the ground. The way he loomed up along side solid yard stick Silva Eclipse at Haydock suggests it could be hard to get a handle on him for the handicapper.
Another unexposed sort at the trip is RAPPER & I think he should be a lot closer to the head of the betting. He should be judged only on his 3 mile form as he has greatly improved with the step up. He won at a non testing M Rasen 2m7 but then the acid test came over CD last time. Beat only a length by Skandiburg, his run should be upgraded for the way he stayed on the speed throughout. Skandiburg has an obvious chance and is about the price he should be. Rapper should be a lot closer to him in the market
Recommend: 1 pt ew Welsh Saint 7/1
1 pt ew Rapper 25/1
Brown Plate
Lifetime cliff horse Livelovelaugh lured me in until I saw the booking of Brian Hayes. A fine pilot but way down the pecking order in Mullins camp so today may not be the day. Small stakes alternatives here in a very hard race where many horses repose from the never ending Chelt 2m4 handicaps early in the season. Simply the betts had his form boosted hugely by Imperial Aura but the whole world knows that now. Two darts go in the direction of SNOW FALCON and MISTER WHITAKER. MW has a very good cd record & I think market is too judgemental of his pu behind Santini the last day. He's just not a 3 miler & that was a red hot race. Snow Falcon requires a look back into the history books. Eoin Walsh is the next Kevin Brouder in Ireland and his 7lb claim brings him within one pound of his Kerry national mark. He ran to that again in October so the fire still burns. Wouldn't touch him at 16s/20s but most definitely will at 40s
Recommend
0.50 pts ew Mister Whitaker 20s
0.50 pts ew Snow falcon
Kim Muir
CLOTH CAP is the bet of the week. If you framed contenders for big staying chases at the start of the season, he would have been in your top 5 after a savage run as an unexposed sort in the Scottish national. he was 16s that day and went 1.8 in running, only beat 4l. This year has seen a comeback to be ignored, a perfectly legit run at ascot and a mildly disappointing beat in a 4 runner race at Donny. However, they all smack of Jonjo fitness sessions. He's not entered for aintree so the only niggling worry is that this is a prep for ayr. I really doubt it though. There are far easier ways to prep than a cavalry charge like this. Mr R Deegan a perfectly good amateur who willie uses a lot and has plenty of experience here. This horse will undoubtedly end up way higher rated than he is today. Trying to read Jonjos mind can be a dangerous game, but surely today is the day the handbrake is released. Id have him half the price he is now so am prepared to try second guess JOnjo at prices
3pts ew Cloth Cap 20s
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