Ballymore Hurdle:
Very hard to see Envoi beaten here especially given what Abracadabras and Darver Star did today to frank the form. Not much of a betting race for me as the price short as it is is probably about right. Sporting John looks the most likely to beat him on merit but is priced as such and if you get 9/2 its probably fine nibbling each way for an interest. Of the rest I wouldn't be overly keen on of the Getaways and probably the one that offers a bit of value is one of Envoi's previous victims - Longhouse Poet who I made 3rd best of the bunch but is an unconsidered outsider. I have small antepost slips at 33s and 25s and I'll top up with a small forecast tomorrow and hope that Sporting John isn' quite as good as connections think.
0.5pts Envoi Allen/Longhouse Poet forecast
RSA Chase:
This is a much better betting prospect and a cracker of a race to boot. Pretty much nothing between the top 7 or so in the market on their best form and and ridiculous spread of prices that considered. Lets break this into Ire v the Brits to make things easier. Starting on the UK form lets just eliminate Copperhead form the equation straight off the bat - his Reyoldstown win was good but a very quick turnaround in a race that until recently was never the plan. Has hype horse written all over him and I ain't buying - not at twice the price. That leaves Champ and Slate House. Both have had some jumping issues - Champ probably more persistently - and both have as their best piece of form this season in giving Black Ops a 1.5L beating. One is 7/2 and the other is 14/1. Slate House wasn't given a hard time of it when things didn't go to plan in a very hot race on Festival trials day but has 3 course wins to his name to go with a couple of alphabet soup finishes and happy to risk him at 14s given his obvious talent. Looking this side of the sea Minella Indo does look marginally the best of what we have, having held the upper hand over hurdles at the end of last season against Allaho and despite not having a flawless preparation probably just deserves to be favourite over Allaho. But again we are faced with a conundrum - assume the 1pt difference between Allaho and Minella is largely fair then what do we make of Easy Game. Easy Game beat Allaho by 1.5L at Christmas and followed it up by only just going down to Faugheen at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before that he was second only to Honeysuckle in his season opener! If Faugheen had turned up here he would be around 9/2 despite it being unlikely he had any more improvement to show since Leopardstown. Easy Game is still improving and at an eye-popping 12/1 has to be backed.
2.5pts ew Easy Game 12/1
1.5 pts win Slate House 14/1
Champion Chase:
This really is my Moneyball test - do I trust my eyes or the numbers. I've agonised over this for a long time and still haven't come to a proper conclusion. Looking at these 2 horses visually (I've had the privilege to be in Cheltenham for 3 of Defi's 6 wins) and I've never seen a horse enjoy the hill as much as Defi. If you haven't put him to bed jumping the last you are beat. When he jumped the last nearly 2 lengths down from Politilogue at the November meeting I was already counting my cash knowing what was to come. On the flip side watching Chacun at Leopardstown he didn't seem to really finish out his race as well as I would hope and I started to worry about these 2 going eyeball to eyeball up the hill from right around then. The clock tells me Chacun is the better horse. Punchestown tells me Chacun is the better horse. But what about at Cheltenham. I still haven't figured it out to be honest but I found a betting strategy to let me make peace with the uncertainty and move on. When Chacun won at Leopardstown Min ran a cracker just 3.5Ls behind. If Chacun delivers what the clock says he can Min will instantly flip to favourite for the Ryanair on Thursday. So I'm going to double them up and hope for the best. Either way even without Altior this promises to be a cracker.
2pt double Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase)/ Min (Ryanair Chase)
Cross Country Chase:
So a race with a crowd favourite regarded by almost everyone who's ever seen a horse in the flesh as the closest thing to a certainty there is this week....so obviously we will be opposing! Tiger was incredible in this last year but he's 10 now and was a damn sight less impressive in his prep race this year than last year when Gordon brought him out for a racecourse gallop and accidently won a G3 hurdle with him. He ran in the same hurdle this year and came 5th. You don't have to look far to find something to oppose him with - Easysland has only run once this side of the channel cake-walking a course and distance race here in Dec. After that JP snapped him up as he new cross country stalwart and he seems sure to give Tiger plenty to think about if he's not at last years level. Another I know almost nothing about (which means almost no one knows anything about him) but want to back is Arlequin D'Allier. For the same connections as Diesel D'Allier but quite possibly just a little bit better they've signed up the Doc to ride and at a big price I think he will be a live contender for a place.
2pts e/w Easysland 4/1
.25pts e/w Arlequin D'Allier 40/1
Bumper:
I realised at the weekend that I've never in 20 years trying backed the winner of the bumper....I've kinda given up at this stage. I'll nibble at last years 5th Glancing Queen at 20/1 with 4 places and hope at least to not lose money on the race.
.5pts e/w The Glancing Queen 20/1
And now for the handicaps:
Coral Cup
typical chelt hc - a plethora of horses who potentially have 7-10 in
hand towards the head of market. One horse who should be towards the head of the
market but isnt is TOP MOON. this horse simply must have 2m4 or even further.
his 2 mile form is as relevant as the length of his tail. he only has two tries
at 2m4 - a cosy win from well handicapped Morosini at cork and then at navan,
it was an excellent run 1 length off the equally unexposed Alfa Mix who reposes
today. If anything, TM looked like he wanted further which he'll get today.
Alfa was 3 x his price that day and has run very well since. TM had a spin at a
completely inadequate and sharp 2m at leopardstown. The market has overreacted
to Top Moon's run there. Price has been slashed since decs yesterday but still
lots of juice in it
Another dart comes from the Alfa Mix form collection. He was beaten 1l
by KILFENORA in their last handicap. The pair came 19 lengths clear. Disregard
Kilfenora's prep run for this since then - a green n gold special! On the face
of it, Kilfenora looks an exposed handicapper, but we can't be certain he's
finished improving. Last three handicaps were a close 3rd in top company at the
punch fez & two good wins. Throw in that he's weighted to beat Alfa Mix,
was shorter than him when they met, and Simon Torrens is a perfectly capable
claimer and you have a solid case. Everything has its price and he is simply
too big. Wild prices on the exchange tonight that ill happily take but might
even get 40s in the morning if you wait for ew in shops
Recommend: 1.5 pt ew Top Moon 20s
.75 ew Kilfenora. 33s (Probably 40s in morning)
Boodles/Fred winter/absolutely impossible handicap
Not a breeze on this - you need to know your French form too and more
plots than a Love Island omnibus. Avoid it like the corona.
Token selection would be MICK PASTOR. Top judge Simon Rowlands thought
he was a bet for the triumph two weeks ago. Instead turns up here. Trained by
man with best record in the race. again, absolute token selection
0.25 ew Mick Pastor 9s
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