Death and Taxes

 What a day! Mountains of paper profit, some great moral victories and riveting hard luck stories to tell the grankids. Truely a great day of punting. What more could you want? Well just peering into my war chest for tomorrow a few quid would be nice. The cupboards are getting bare and value doesn't pay the bills. Not for the first time we find ourselves on a Cheltenham Thursday staring down the barrel of a losing week and once again we will need a clarity of drinking to pull us through and set the ship right for tomorrow. Without the assistance of the bar man in Mulligans to put my mind straight I've retreated to the back room with a bottle of Tuscan's finest and hopefully the inspiration will flow as freely as the wine.

Triumph Hurdle:

Racing is the search for certainties. But as we all know there are only two certainties in life Death and Taxes. I've brought you death (if you remember Rezorbi) but you have not loved me for it, but now i bring you taxes which I'm sure will be a lot more popular! Most people have this as a 3 horse race and haven't even bothered to read to the end of the race card. The top 3 in the market are correct after todays move to push out Tritonic and shorten Zanahiyr and Quilixios. Zanahiyr and Quilixios both looked incredibly impressive  particularly the last time out and their order in the betting is largely a reflection of the stable opinion of the pecking order rather than a track based opinion. Tritonic while good was not the Pegasus reborn that the British hype machine made him out to be winning the Adonis the last day. People get very excited about how good Tritonic was on the flat (rated 99) and seem convince that that allied with the ability to hurdle makes him close to favourite here. I have yet to hear any of the same people who bring up this fact, as evidence that Tritonic is a sure thing, make any mention of the fact that he in fact wasn't the best of these on the flat. I don't have flat ratings for Germany but Tax for Max came 5th in a G1 in Munich finishing .5Ls behind Secret Advisor (rated 114 in the UK) which is unquestionably superior form to Tritonic's tame effort in a G3 at Newmarket. Since then he was bought by the shrewd Munir and Soude partnership and shipped off to a certain WPM. He's had one run over hurdles thrown straight in at G3 level where he pulled like a spoilt child for the first mile before finally getting down to things once the pace quickened and running on well for 2nd behind Teahupoo - the best Irish novice not to make it to Cheltenham. If he can settle which should be easier with a faster pace he could properly be in the mix come the finish as he definitely has the capacity to match the top 3 in terms of peak ability. He got 1m4f in heavy on the flat so no doubts he will stay on up the hill. You should very rarely back a 50/1 shot like its a 5/1 shot but this is the exception. I'm actually giddy with excitement for this one...although maybe that's my heavy hand with the wine pour kicking in.

2.5pts ew Tax for Max 50/1

Albert Bartlett:

There comes a point when enough people tell you that the same horse is their 'dark horse' for the meeting that you have to start to think it's not actually that dark a horse and more a mugs money pit at least value wise. That is the category I put Fakiera in. To be fair I think I did once mention him to someone as a possible dark horse for the AB back after his second to Ashdale Bob in Navan. He has since lost (again) and shortened considerably (25s to 6s). He probably does need 3m and he is undoubtedly not a bad horse but this guy has a ghetto blaster and disco lights attached. Any value is a more distant memory than a good English novice hurdler and he can't be backed at this price. Statler beat Fakiera by 2Ls the last day and prob very little between them over and extra 2f and their prices reflect that. If you asked me a week ago who I would be putting up I probably would have leaned towards Alaphillipe who has the right sort of profile for a race like this and put up a proper time the last day when smashing Mr Harp. You could downgrade that a little if you held too rigid a forml ine through Imperial Alcazar who had beaten him similarly but then flopped yesterday, although that probably was more down to IA's struggles running downhill than a reflection of his true ability. However the most crucial piece of information to come to light since then was Flooring Porter's win today in the Stayer's. Streets of Doyen was the last horse to beat FP when beating him by 5L's receiving a stone in Gowran at the start of the season. Since then FP beat the Bosses Oscar by 12Ls and won 2 G1's while  SoD had a very satisfactory win over C&D in October before being given a break and seemingly wasn't fancied on his prep run the last day. He looks the business for me and the form stacks up to make him top of the tree.

1.5pts ew Streets of Doyen 8/1

Gold Cup:

Sanity finally seems to be prevailing in the market now as we get closer to the event with the Royal Pig nearly doubling in price since being declared here instead of the NH Chase. The owner that denied us the joy of watching the awesome Vautour attempt to win a GC and sent him to the Ryanair instead, has seen fit to send a novice that started the season rated 135 to the blue riband event instead. A horse who's best piece of form  is beating an 11yo pensioner by 16Ls in the annual Haydock bog snorkling competition was until recently a single digit price for this race. Even before you consider the chasm in proven ability between him and the rest of those at the top of the market you would have thought that having a preparation akin to training for the Olympics final with a outing to the local retirement homes sports day would cause people to pause and think. I do sometimes stop to think whether my edge might be reducing over time as markets get more efficient and the syndicates money take over. Then I see something like this and I load up the money cannon and go to war again. Having laid RP a couple of weeks back I had been hoping to place lay on the day but we might just have missed the boat on that. Anyway on to the horses that actually have a chance. I guess we should start with the double Champion Al Boum Photo. In my mind he has always been a solid rather than spectacular champion - in the mould of Best Mate he races 2/3 times a year against what for the most part have been modest opposition and grinds out the wins. Hard to argue with but also hard to get excited about. He comes here at 3/1 which is fine for a pretty consistent high class (but not top class) performer. Champ has been priced on reputation rather than ability all season although Allaho did help his claims with his win today. A messy preparation and making your seasonal debut in February is in my book an irredeemable negative for a relentless galloping top class race like this. Minella Indo is hard to get excited about - only 4th in the Irish GC having fallen in the Savilles Chase she has done nothing this season to justify being any higher up the market than she is. Frodon is a favourite of mine but hard to see Bryony being able to steal this one from the front (that's Rachel's job now) and I would think that Native River turning up will not be a positive for Frodon's chances with competition for the lead a big negative. If those two do get into a mutually destructive battle up front if definitely helps the high class plodder of the race Santini. Every year he stays on into a place and likely this will be no different. The horse I really do like and have been backing for a couple of weeks is A Plus Tard. Not the most exciting of prices now after Rachel's exploits this week and Allaho winning in the Ryanair but really looks like a good thing here. Jumps well enough and has the cruising speed to be able to beat Chacun over 2m but stayed on the best of anything at Christmas to nab the Savilles chase at Leopardstown. His festival record is 13 and he should be adding another 1 to that tomorrow.

1pt win A Plus Tard 10/3

1pt place Santini 11/4

Foxhunters Chase:

I'd be lying if I said I spent more than 5 minutes looking at this race so if you want real insight on it I suggest you look elsewhere. (I believe Rhys Williams did a very good write up on it.) I did spot a couple of things in that 5 mins though. Firstly looking at the English entries its seems wrong for Latenightpass and Hazel Hill to be the same price. Latenightpass sprang a shock on his only hunter chase start the last day beating Highway Jewel and the formerly high class The Worlds End. He was giving Highway Jewel 11lbs that day. The previous day Highway Jewel was only receiving 6lbs from Hazel Hill and won by a cosy 25Ls. Happy to chance Bridget Andrews coaxing Latenightpass around and into the frame at 18's off that form. On the Irish side Stand Up and Fight has faced off against Billaway twice and the score stands at 1 a piece. No shame in losing by less than a length to Jury Duty the last day and probably should be closer both to stable mate Staker Wallace and favourite Billaway imo.

.5pts ew Latenightpass 25/1

.25pts ew Stand Up and Fight 12/1

 

Mares Chase:

Really all about the top 2 in the betting. Yes Elimay should be favourite but Colreevy really a bet to nothing each way. Beating Pencilfulloflead may be the best form on show here as Elimay was never beating Allaho the last day so the winning distance is less relevant. I got trigger happy on the exchange when Allaho crossed the line backing Elimay. I have reversed out of that like a teenager in a stolen Civic and have replaced it with a respectable play ew on Colreevy whose form was also franked by Mount Ida's win today. Shattered Love really needs softer ground to become a player and those 3 well clear of the rest of the field 

1pt ew Colreevy

 

The final word goes to the King tho

County Hurdle

I have felt like General Haig this week, leading ye to be slaughtered. However, like Haigers, follow me once more, for THIS TIME, we shall breach the enemy defences....with a kangaroo! Captain Kangaroo to you! Arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when you review the maiden hurdle behind On eagles wings (2 horses rated high 130s now & Limestone & Il Coura 1-2 the next day) and his bumper (not just Kilcruit - 1st 4 behind all rated 120 at least - Fentons one will be soon anyway). The comedy prices are gone but still happy to put him up. I was concerned Townend didnt choose him but as Gambrose said, Townend doesnt want me doing minimum weight before going for 3 gold cups. And Ruby said today that theres a number 1 at willies, but no no. 2 jockey. So all in all, Hayes is fine. Another one we need to defeat the Germans/bookies is Eclair de Beaufeu. Fell at the last in this 2 yrs ago when right in it, went on to better things as a chaser last year and has had a prep that we see from Elliot so often - only one day matters. 

1 pt ew Capt Kangaroo 

1 pt ew Eclair de Beaufeu

M Pipe

Which of the top few have most in hand? Your guess is as gd as mine. But what i do think is that Folcano & Fire Attack should be closer to the top 3 than they are. Unexposed Elliot & JOB handicap debutantes should not off go off these prices in Chelt hcaps nowadays. Folcano - a beautiful late addition thanks to a reserves absence has been boosted also by booking of Ben Jones - who won last years Hennessy.

Recomm

1 pt ew Folcano

1 pt ew Fire Attack

 

On the Hook

Enough today to keep things ticking over without ever really looking like landing one of our bigger priced pokes. Tomorrow though is probably the day I'm most excited about of the week both in terms of the racing and the punting. A couple of properly competitive Championship races that both look like they will take some winning, a novice chase that's not as one-sided as it seems and a very high standard Mares novice race that somehow is the defining moment of the 2021 Cheltenham.

Marsh's Chase:

Another Novice race another odds on Irish jolly that is surely impossible to oppose...or is it. Envoi has beaten nothing this season although to be fair you can only beat what is put in front of you but to be getting involved at a price like this I would want either a weak field or a very impressive demolition job in the build up neither of which we have. Looking through the field there are several with G1's to their name or clock shattering performances and hard to think that at least one of them won't at least give him something to think about tomorrow. Shan Blue won the Kauto Star at Christmas and his jumping has been foot perfect all season however despite that jumping he still managed to get caught late on by Sporting John the last day who only started racing a half mile from the finish. I think he just won't quite have the engine to live with some of the others on that evidence and happy to pass over here. Chatham Street Lad is intriguing. He broke the clock in a handicap at the course back in December but that performance is more of an outlier with most of his runs well below that level. A reproduction of it could give him a real chance here but not a horse I would want to trust with my cash. The other 2 contenders raced that same day in December over course and distance and even though not as eye catching it was a pretty deep race for a 3 horse race. Lieutenant Rocco was due to start as fav in Tuesday's Ultima before injury intervened and he split Chantry House and Fusil Raffles that day. Surprisingly the 3rd horse that day Chantry House is half the price of the horse that beat him which seems strange to me. Fusil has always been an incredibly talented horse who once went off joint favourite in a Christmas hurdle with Epatante and is 3/4 over fences including a course and distance win. He needs to clean up his jumping a bit but if he can he could be the big improver that will give Envoi his biggest test to date. Maybe Envoi will be good enough to overcome this but at 20/1 I'm happy enough to chance that he won't.

0.5pts Fusil Raffles 20/1 

1pt Fusil Raffles w/o Envoi 6/1

Ryanair Chase:

One of the best races of the meeting for me you could make a case for half a dozen here. Min is an old favourite but the first signs of old age are starting to creep in and I couldn't back him at 10 given that he is likely at the start of a pretty rapid decline. Allaho seems to be largely priced off last years form having been beaten out of sight in the John Durkan by Min before coming a distant 4th and Leopardstown and ended whatever GC aspirations he may have had. Melon is a horse I love who always saves his best run of the year for the festival but has a nasty habit of always finding at least 1 too good for him. Imperial Aura's win from last year was franked by Galvin in the NH Chase but I think it still leaves a little more required for this step up in class. Samcro is intriguing - 2/2 at the festival but really a horse than blows hot and cold ever since his lung infection 2 years ago. However the horse I've been sweet on for a long time in this is Fakir D'Oudairies. A very close second in last years Arkle behind today's Champion Chase winner and after not really staying 3m at Christmas put in a very respectable 2nd behind Chacan Pour Soi the last day in Leopardstown. This middle distance should prove ideal for him and he can come out on top in what promises to be a cracker.

1pt Fakir D'oudaries 13/2

Stayer's Hurdle:

Another cracker with several angles to come at it from. The first and main angle is looking at the horse that isn't here - Thyme Hill. He had 2 matchups with Paisley Park and won 1 and lost 1. Off the back of that he was more or less joint favourite before injury intervened. Go back one more race from that though and you'll see him 4th behind the Monkfish Monster at last years festival which is obviously no disgrace but looking at the horse one place ahead of him that day (Fury Road) you have to wonder  how PP can be 2s and FR is 8s. FR hasn't had everything go to plan this year. Ran very well behind Flooring Porter at Christmas when the stable was completely out of sorts and then had a very solid race at Navan the last day just pipped by Beacon Edge over a trip too short. He should be coming here ready for a season's best and definitely the value of the race if he's back in top form. The other angle I like into this race is last years Pertemps Hurdle where Sire du Berlais edged the Storyteller by half a length before The Storyteller reversed the form beating SdB by 3/4L in the Leop Christmas hurdle when finishing like a train. I think despite his age the Storyteller should not be so big in comparison to  SdB and I also think a cheeky little forecast on the 2 is well justified given their previous.

2pts Fury Rd 8/1

1pt The Storyteller 11/1

.5pts The Storyteller/Sire du Berlais RFC

Mare's Novice Hurdle:

So I've a confession to make. I backed Hook Up antepost..then I backed her again. Then I Texas hedged with some doubles and eventually threw in a cheeky treble to make things interesting. Our fate hinges on the smallest of margins sometimes and I am pot committed tomorrow and so to some extent I'm talking up my own book here. Unfortunately for me the more I look at this the better the race looks. Usually this is one of the worst races of the meeting but this year looks an exceptional standard. The 2 horse being backed tonight are the Glens of Antrim who ran Stattler to 3Ls and Tellmesomethingirl who was 3rd behind todays winner Heaven Help us at Leopardstown. In a normal year either of those pieces of form would have you clear favourite. However our girl Hook Up has run Blue Lord to a length (6Ls behind Appreciate It) the last day in Leoparstown and I still believe that is the strongest piece of form on show here. She does need to polish up her jumping but I would forgive her run behind Royal Kahala in Fairyhouse - she's raced in Fairyhouse twice now both times in bottomless ground. Both times she's been heavily odds on coming to the last and both times has just stopped in the mud on the run in. Last year it was the subsequent Triumph winner Burning Victory who nabbed her, this year it was Royal Kahala but on better ground she'll be a different beast and should overturn that form. Royal Kahala/Rosey's Hollow and Gauloise all have very close form off the last day so hopefully her improvement and the better ground will see off all of them. The more I write the more I'm convincing myself I need to go in again....oh well in for a penny

1pt Hook Up 7/1

 The handicaps got squeezed for time tonight but briefly here is what the King has done:

Pertemps:

0.5pt Champagne Platinum 11/1

0.5pt Dandy Mag 25/1

PP Plate:

0.5pt win Laskalin ~60/1 BF

0,5pt ew Oldgrangewood 25/1

Kim Muir

1pt ew Sizing at Midnight 28/1

Bob's Your Uncle

A solid enough start and our treble stays live into Thursdays Mares race so something to look forward to later in the week. Tomorrow is probably the trappiest of the 4 days with a lot of unopposable favourites where the best value is to be had trying to guess who will win best of the rest.

Ballymore Hurdle:

The one clear thing from today's Supreme is where the balance of power lies between Ireland and Britain when it comes to novice hurdlers. The British were beaten out of sight and again are taking up too much of the market in tomorrow's race. My response when asked about Bravemansgame a few days ago was rather flippantly to say 'sure he's only up there in the betting to give the English mugs something to bet on'  which although harsh is likely true. There is a certain amount of geography that goes into making a book for the novice races at Cheltenham and no book is complete without at least one representative from each side of the sea regardless of the imbalance in either direction. Bravemansgame may quite possibly be the pick of the English novice hurdles but winning that tallest dwarf competition won't help him against what is possibly the best of the Irish novices. Bob Olinger got closer to the ill fated Ferny Hollow on his hurdling debut than Appreciate It managed in last years Champion Bumper. Since then he's followed up with 2 routine wins including strolling away from Blue Lord in a G1 the last day. He sets a very high standard here and should have the measure of Gaillard du Mesnil who likely will fill the runners up spot behind him.

2pts win Bob Olinger 6/4

2pts place Gaillard du Mesnil 1.88

Brown Advisory Chase:

I think Monkfish is already a shorter price to win next years Gold Cup than any of the other horse here are to win this race. He looked a monster the last day and is unopposable here. In terms of value here even the betting without is largely priced correctly with the step up in trip likely to help Sporting John but Eklat du Rire looked like a horse for the future the last day and given how close Escaria Ten finished in the NH Chase today despite his jumping going to pieces suggests that Eklat might just shade it for best of the rest.

.5pts Eklat du Rire w/o Monkfish 5/2

Champion Chase:

A very weak renewal with Chacun Pour Soi the standout talent here. Anything close to evens is almost certainly value. Since joining Willie Mullins he's won 5 of his 6 races comfortably and the only horse to beat him was future Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard who caught him cold the Christmas before last. The field in behind is for the most part a collection of British has been's and journeymen. Politilogue was a below average Champion Chase winner to begin with and is now in decline, Nube Negra seems to be rated as if it was Altior in his prime that he beat at Christmas rather than an aging giant. First Flow is an honest horse who made the most of an enterprising ride the last day to beat Politilogue but in reality is a G2 horse at best. most baffling of all though is that I can guarantee that before the off tomorrow at least one person will tip up Rouge Vif as the value bet to you with no justification. Despite repeatedly being well beaten by half of the horse in the field. In normal time I would suggest befriending these poor lost souls and possibly buying them a pint with a view to encouraging them to bet against you on any other baseless premonitions they may have. Unfortunately in times of COVID that's not really possible so perhaps its kindest to just smile and nod and move quickly away before they start explaining how COVID is a fraud perpetuated by Bill Gates to cull all the poor people in the world. There are however two proper G1 horses buried in the field both in their prime and both should be back without the favourite. Put The Kettle On should be a fairly obvious pick. Last years Arkle winner (20Ls ahead of Rouge Vif) and 3/3 at the course. She is a gutsy mare and will relish the hill. She also is the one horse that is there is any chink in CpS's armour she will expose it. The other is really the forgotten horse of the race. Last years Arkle favourite Notebook. He sweated up badly before the race last year but is apparently enjoying her racing more this year without the crowds. He got within 7L of CpS at Christmas (1.75Ls ahead of PTKO) which is likely a lot closer than any of these will tomorrow. Priced up as a no hoper I expect a big race tomorrow in a silent Cotswolds.

2.5pts ew Notebook w/o CpS 18/1

1.5pts Put The Kettle On w/o CpS 7/2

X Country Chase:

Just the one French raider this year - last years winner Easysland. Probably wins this again with the main competition in the market an aging Tiger Roll. Possibly we get the fairytale ending for Tiger and he gets to retire a champion at one of his favourite stomping grounds. More likely he'll prove himself not to be the force of old and go out with a whimper without even an appreciative crowd to give him a send off when he does trot in.  Scanning down through the entries the only one of any real interest is former NH Chase winner Le Breuil. He has his sights set on Aintree but this has been a great stepping stone in that direction as Tiger can attest. At 18/1 he is worth a nibble each way.

0.5pts ew Le Breuil 18/1

Bumper:

Not one I've put a lot of thought into and Sir Gerhard moving to Willie's yard means the market really should have a very clear opinion tomorrow how this should be priced. For myself I had to have a little nibble on Sir Gerhard based purely on human behaviour. People overweight the most recent thing they've seen or heard and so Sir Gerhard not going to the DRF while Kilcruit did means Kilcruit is fresher in peoples memory. Throw in the fact that Kilcruit ran a very deceiving race that day where your eyes and the clock tell two different stories (see Simon Rowlands Sectional Spotlight for more) means its inevitable that people will over-react in how short they make Kilcruit.

1pt Sir Gerhard 2/1

 

And now for the handicaps:

Coral Cup:

One from the front, and one from the back please Carol! The task here as always is to find the lurkers with lots in hand and hope they end up on the right end pace wise. I'm hoping Sneaky Getaway returns to the front end instead of the disastrous hold up effort at Christmas which timeform argued hindered his jumping. Sneaky Emmet is as respected a trainer as his uncle in these big handicaps and i think he goes off a lot shorter - you would not even be surprised were he to be single figures the way this yard operates.  Dysart Diamond will be stone last to try get the trip & need luck as he weaves through, but again, hes very lightly raced for Emmet's uncle and there no proof we've seen the bottom of him yet. Cross off the last day - fallers in front ended his race when starting to weave through. Townend is on Koshari instead but I'd have Dysart closer to him than market does now. For market watchers, if Palmers Hill starts to shorten significantly, join the party. he is very well handicapped if on song

1.5 pts ew Sneaky Getaway 16s

0.75 pts ew Dysart Diamond 25s

Grand annual

My biggest handicap bet of the week will be Not That Fuisse. Long story short, I think there's a vg chance his best trip will be this well run 2m & we haven't got to see him try it yet. Backed him last year & didnt get in. Is 7lb higher now but on the plus side, his novice chase behind Southfield Royale (fav in big Kempton hc lately on beloved gd gd) & Coole Cody (pp winner) is vg. also, hes had the wind op lately for the in form Skelton yd. on his Exeter run, he wouldn't go close but tried cheekpieces that day & discarded them immediately. At the price, q mks obvo exist, but i think hes about a 14s shot. The 3 of us have been watching Embittered's campaign this year with a smirk like many people. Placed off this mark in last years county, this has clearly been the aim all year. Timeform has repeatedly stated he is a chaser so theres an angle for better than last year. well found in the market, but could actually end up way shorter like Chosen Mate did last year

2 pts ew Not That Fuisse 18s

2 pt win Embittered 11/2

Perfect 10

 Hard to believe that it's a year since I was rushing out the last Cheltenham blog as the markets went into meltdown and then we all went into hibernation, and somehow haven't come out since. On the one hand that's robbed me off my 3 annual research pilgrimages to the Cheltenham November meeting, Christmas at Leopardstown and the increasingly important Dublin racing festival. Some things can only be properly appreciated in the flesh and the days at the track absorbed in obscure form lines can be hard to replace. On the other hand my monk like existence these last couple of months has given me more time than normal to trawl through videos and explore the various rabbit holes I fall down to their fullest. Swings and roundabout I guess and hopefully it will still lead to fruitful hunting this week. Judging by the oddschecker sea of blue on the horse's I was discussing on zoom with the other 2 parts of  Riskit's 3 wise men on Sunday night we might just be on to something so lets get punting before the value's all gone.

Supreme Novices:

Regular readers will know that I don't put up short priced WPM horses lightly and the point has been made (quite forcefully) by some  that if they keep winning why cant we just back them instead of some French 'value' loser. Now I've looked at the Supreme inside out and spent most of the time looking for a reason not to back Appreciate It. There was a brief moment of madness when I got caught up in the hype of Soaring Glory's Betfair hurdle win only to quickly come to my senses and look at the numbers. Soaring Glory won the Betfair hurdle off 133 and with the bad weather pushing it back a week has a shorter turn around than any previous winner trying to double up in the Supreme. Think back a couple of years to 2 properly impressive Betfair winners - Kalashnikov and My Tent or Yours. They won the Betfair off 141 and 149 respectively and both narrowly fell short in the Supreme despite being a half a stone and a stone better than SG and having a week longer to recover. Metier is probably the only decent UK novice hurdler but despite looking impressive in the Tolworth the horse that trailed in behind him that day was well down the field in the Betfair the next day so hard to get too carried away. The rest of the field (pretty much) have all already had at least 1 crack at Appreciate It and never landed a blow. He was 1/3 the last day to beat a stronger field than this and even though Ballyadam came looming at the last Appreciate It settled it quickly with the minimum of fuss. He should be odds on tomorrow and likely will be by the off judging by the moves today. That Novice Hurdle at the Dublin festival is the strongest piece of novice form in these islands this year by a distance and it is worth examining a little bit closer than just looking at what the winner did. Appreciate It pulled 3Ls clear of Ballyadam who in turn pulled a few lengths clear of 4 horses finishing in a heap behind. But those 6 horses put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field who were no mugs themselves - Cask Mate and Ngolo were 2nd and 3rd in the Royal Bond and beaten out of sight here and Wide Receiver was many peoples idea on a handicap sure thing before the decision was made to stay in Ireland. Looking at those 4 horses - Blue Lord and Irascible both run in the Supreme but Hook Up who was staying on like a train at the end goes to the Mares Novice (5/1) and Galopin Des Champ goes to the Martin Pipe running off a pretty fair 142 (12/1). Both are Mullins main challenger in those events and both will surely be a lot shorter after Appreciate wins tomorrow. The treble with pay ~148/1 and is surely worth the price of a pint at least. So just like buses after waiting for so long for me to tip a Mullins hotpot you get 3 for the price of 1! To completely max out the value of the Chanelle Pharma Hurdle we are also going to stick Ballyadam in with Appreciate it for the forecast.

1pt Appreciate It to win evens

.5pts Appreciate It/Ballyadam forecast

.5pts Appreciate It/Hook Up double 11/1

.25pts Appreciate It/Hook Up/Galopin Des Champs treble 148/1

The Arkle:

From a feast to a famine. I had spent an eternity examining the pace angle of this race and what would likely happen when Energumene wouldn't allow Allmankind an unchallenged lead. I had imagined all sort of scenarios with a pace collapse allowing a heroic Franco de Port to pass them all up the hill but then fate intervened and Energumene was a NR turning an intriguing contest into a likely procession. Shiskin wins bar a fall and the others are largely correctly priced in the betting without market. If you need something to cheer stick Shiskin in an acca but I'll be sitting this one out.

No bet

Champion Hurdle:

Everyone has a plan until you they get punched in the mouth and that's pretty much what Goshen is going to try to do to the field here. He's going to go off hard, he's going to go off fast and it's up to the jockeys behind him to figure out if he'll be stopping or not. If you look at the Triumph that he didn't win last year it's worth looking for the eventual winner of the race as they get to the top of the hill - stone last and starting to be cast adrift. But the pace of Goshen v Allmankind up front destroyed anyone up with the pace. Maybe it was that pace that lead to the mistake at the last maybe not. But it definitely was what caused Aspire Tower and Allmankind to slow to a crawl up the hill as Burning victory danced by them. The problem for Goshen is this race has a few horses with incredible cruising speeds that wont be burned off and if they can find a nice tempo regardless of his pace they will kick past him up the hill. The 2 for me that stand out are Honeysuckle and Abacadabras. Honeysuckle is pretty obvious - an unbeaten mare who won the best hurdle race of 2020 when taking on Benie Des Dieux (who would have been fav against Epatante) in the Mares hurdle last year. She's ultra consistent and stepped it up again this year with a career best the last day going on a long way out to smash up a proper G1 race. Second that day was Abacadabras who took a big step up from Christmas (when he was scoping badly) and will improve with the ground and the time. It is worth remembering that although things haven't gone to plan this year his Supreme second last year was pretty much on a par with what Epatante did when winning the Champion hurdle. Anything like the horse that turned up last year should be in the frame this year. One last thing just catching my eye as I write this is the place market. Aspire Tower was best of the rest behind Goshen in the triumph last year imo and has shown great improvement over the season beating Abacadabras first time out and then running Sharjah to 2Ls at Christmas. He's my idea of a horse for next year but with a more restrained ride this year there could be some value in the 4/1 on him to place.

2pts Honeysuckle 7/4

.5pts ew Abacadabras 10/1

.5pt place Aspire Tower 4/1

Mare's Hurdle:

A nice easy one with an old favourite to back. A filly I love nearly as much as my new fiancee who has delivered us the goods year after year. Roksana is a proper G1 horse. She spends most of her time racing in open company rather than beating up on weak mares graded races like the rest of the field. The class act on show here and an easy pick again.

2pts Roksana 3/1

National Hunt Chase:

A little disappointed not to have the hype horse of the meeting Royal Pig run here to juice the pot but an interesting race none the less both from a betting point of view and also in terms of figuring out if there is any chance of trying to oppose Monkfish on Wednesday (doubtful!). Next Destination was one of the very best before a 3yr lay off from injury and definitely retains a lot of ability coming second behind Roksana first run back and then demolishing a few small field chase after that. The betting market is suggesting this is the Next Destination of old but this doubting Thomas needs to see that to believe it after all this time. Galvin has course form and probably the most likely of the field to relish the 3m6f trip but even though he is unbeaten this season he's largely been beating the same handful of very average horses. Lord Royal is a horse that a lot of people I respect will likely tip up tomorrow but although he undoubtedly talented he's too frustrating a type to trust with your cash here. A much more interesting lurker is Escaria Ten. His second the last day behind Eklat de Rire was a top class performance where the first 2 blasted away from the very useful Pencilfulloflead and even though he never looked like getting past the winner he looked like the extra 5f would be a help rather than a hinderance.

2pts ew Escaria Ten 9/2

And now what you've all been waiting for the Handicap Kings big price winners!

 

Ultima:

Form only or more factors to weigh up?? on form only, Milan Native wont win the Ultima - a 9lb higher mark than when winning a poor Kim Muir that hasn't worked out looks harsh. Add in his form figures this year and he CANT WIN!!! But, there is so much more than meets the eye. His runs this yr are not a problem -the Wexford race he tried to live with Minella Indo & paid the price. He was 3s IR in 3m5 race & didn't stay, his PP run at Christmas wasn't too bad till 2 out blunder. Basically, we've seen this before from Sneezy Elliot - one race in the year matters. Also, Elliot could have picked from  Escaria Ten, Farclas, Run Wild Fred or Coko Beach (all 5 day entries). Id have had all of them 2nd fav at least here. So, with that, the recent wind op and the nature of his 'competitiveness' this year,  I think he  should be 2nd fav himself, ahead of the solid pair Aye Right & OFTT. Fav is correct but i cant put number on how short he should be. 

Recomm 1 pt ew Milan Native 7/1

Boodles:

Gambrose, myself and a friend spoke recently. We all agreed this race could kill a man with its complexity. We also agreed there's no way the best Elliot/Foster horse should be the price he is on trainer profile alone. Add in the form behind Thedevilscoachman last day and you have a bet that will prevent you trying to decode this impossible puzzle horse by horse!

Recomm 1 pt ew Riviere D'etel 10/1