Monday, 15 March 2021

Perfect 10

 Hard to believe that it's a year since I was rushing out the last Cheltenham blog as the markets went into meltdown and then we all went into hibernation, and somehow haven't come out since. On the one hand that's robbed me off my 3 annual research pilgrimages to the Cheltenham November meeting, Christmas at Leopardstown and the increasingly important Dublin racing festival. Some things can only be properly appreciated in the flesh and the days at the track absorbed in obscure form lines can be hard to replace. On the other hand my monk like existence these last couple of months has given me more time than normal to trawl through videos and explore the various rabbit holes I fall down to their fullest. Swings and roundabout I guess and hopefully it will still lead to fruitful hunting this week. Judging by the oddschecker sea of blue on the horse's I was discussing on zoom with the other 2 parts of  Riskit's 3 wise men on Sunday night we might just be on to something so lets get punting before the value's all gone.


Supreme Novices:

Regular readers will know that I don't put up short priced WPM horses lightly and the point has been made (quite forcefully) by some  that if they keep winning why cant we just back them instead of some French 'value' loser. Now I've looked at the Supreme inside out and spent most of the time looking for a reason not to back Appreciate It. There was a brief moment of madness when I got caught up in the hype of Soaring Glory's Betfair hurdle win only to quickly come to my senses and look at the numbers. Soaring Glory won the Betfair hurdle off 133 and with the bad weather pushing it back a week has a shorter turn around than any previous winner trying to double up in the Supreme. Think back a couple of years to 2 properly impressive Betfair winners - Kalashnikov and My Tent or Yours. They won the Betfair off 141 and 149 respectively and both narrowly fell short in the Supreme despite being a half a stone and a stone better than SG and having a week longer to recover. Metier is probably the only decent UK novice hurdler but despite looking impressive in the Tolworth the horse that trailed in behind him that day was well down the field in the Betfair the next day so hard to get too carried away. The rest of the field (pretty much) have all already had at least 1 crack at Appreciate It and never landed a blow. He was 1/3 the last day to beat a stronger field than this and even though Ballyadam came looming at the last Appreciate It settled it quickly with the minimum of fuss. He should be odds on tomorrow and likely will be by the off judging by the moves today. That Novice Hurdle at the Dublin festival is the strongest piece of novice form in these islands this year by a distance and it is worth examining a little bit closer than just looking at what the winner did. Appreciate It pulled 3Ls clear of Ballyadam who in turn pulled a few lengths clear of 4 horses finishing in a heap behind. But those 6 horses put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field who were no mugs themselves - Cask Mate and Ngolo were 2nd and 3rd in the Royal Bond and beaten out of sight here and Wide Receiver was many peoples idea on a handicap sure thing before the decision was made to stay in Ireland. Looking at those 4 horses - Blue Lord and Irascible both run in the Supreme but Hook Up who was staying on like a train at the end goes to the Mares Novice (5/1) and Galopin Des Champ goes to the Martin Pipe running off a pretty fair 142 (12/1). Both are Mullins main challenger in those events and both will surely be a lot shorter after Appreciate wins tomorrow. The treble with pay ~148/1 and is surely worth the price of a pint at least. So just like buses after waiting for so long for me to tip a Mullins hotpot you get 3 for the price of 1! To completely max out the value of the Chanelle Pharma Hurdle we are also going to stick Ballyadam in with Appreciate it for the forecast.


1pt Appreciate It to win evens

.5pts Appreciate It/Ballyadam forecast

.5pts Appreciate It/Hook Up double 11/1

.25pts Appreciate It/Hook Up/Galopin Des Champs treble 148/1


The Arkle:

From a feast to a famine. I had spent an eternity examining the pace angle of this race and what would likely happen when Energumene wouldn't allow Allmankind an unchallenged lead. I had imagined all sort of scenarios with a pace collapse allowing a heroic Franco de Port to pass them all up the hill but then fate intervened and Energumene was a NR turning an intriguing contest into a likely procession. Shiskin wins bar a fall and the others are largely correctly priced in the betting without market. If you need something to cheer stick Shiskin in an acca but I'll be sitting this one out.


No bet


Champion Hurdle:

Everyone has a plan until you they get punched in the mouth and that's pretty much what Goshen is going to try to do to the field here. He's going to go off hard, he's going to go off fast and it's up to the jockeys behind him to figure out if he'll be stopping or not. If you look at the Triumph that he didn't win last year it's worth looking for the eventual winner of the race as they get to the top of the hill - stone last and starting to be cast adrift. But the pace of Goshen v Allmankind up front destroyed anyone up with the pace. Maybe it was that pace that lead to the mistake at the last maybe not. But it definitely was what caused Aspire Tower and Allmankind to slow to a crawl up the hill as Burning victory danced by them. The problem for Goshen is this race has a few horses with incredible cruising speeds that wont be burned off and if they can find a nice tempo regardless of his pace they will kick past him up the hill. The 2 for me that stand out are Honeysuckle and Abacadabras. Honeysuckle is pretty obvious - an unbeaten mare who won the best hurdle race of 2020 when taking on Benie Des Dieux (who would have been fav against Epatante) in the Mares hurdle last year. She's ultra consistent and stepped it up again this year with a career best the last day going on a long way out to smash up a proper G1 race. Second that day was Abacadabras who took a big step up from Christmas (when he was scoping badly) and will improve with the ground and the time. It is worth remembering that although things haven't gone to plan this year his Supreme second last year was pretty much on a par with what Epatante did when winning the Champion hurdle. Anything like the horse that turned up last year should be in the frame this year. One last thing just catching my eye as I write this is the place market. Aspire Tower was best of the rest behind Goshen in the triumph last year imo and has shown great improvement over the season beating Abacadabras first time out and then running Sharjah to 2Ls at Christmas. He's my idea of a horse for next year but with a more restrained ride this year there could be some value in the 4/1 on him to place.


2pts Honeysuckle 7/4

.5pts ew Abacadabras 10/1

.5pt place Aspire Tower 4/1


Mare's Hurdle:

A nice easy one with an old favourite to back. A filly I love nearly as much as my new fiancee who has delivered us the goods year after year. Roksana is a proper G1 horse. She spends most of her time racing in open company rather than beating up on weak mares graded races like the rest of the field. The class act on show here and an easy pick again.

2pts Roksana 3/1


National Hunt Chase:

A little disappointed not to have the hype horse of the meeting Royal Pig run here to juice the pot but an interesting race none the less both from a betting point of view and also in terms of figuring out if there is any chance of trying to oppose Monkfish on Wednesday (doubtful!). Next Destination was one of the very best before a 3yr lay off from injury and definitely retains a lot of ability coming second behind Roksana first run back and then demolishing a few small field chase after that. The betting market is suggesting this is the Next Destination of old but this doubting Thomas needs to see that to believe it after all this time. Galvin has course form and probably the most likely of the field to relish the 3m6f trip but even though he is unbeaten this season he's largely been beating the same handful of very average horses. Lord Royal is a horse that a lot of people I respect will likely tip up tomorrow but although he undoubtedly talented he's too frustrating a type to trust with your cash here. A much more interesting lurker is Escaria Ten. His second the last day behind Eklat de Rire was a top class performance where the first 2 blasted away from the very useful Pencilfulloflead and even though he never looked like getting past the winner he looked like the extra 5f would be a help rather than a hinderance.


2pts ew Escaria Ten 9/2


And now what you've all been waiting for the Handicap Kings big price winners!

 

Ultima:

Form only or more factors to weigh up?? on form only, Milan Native wont win the Ultima - a 9lb higher mark than when winning a poor Kim Muir that hasn't worked out looks harsh. Add in his form figures this year and he CANT WIN!!! But, there is so much more than meets the eye. His runs this yr are not a problem -the Wexford race he tried to live with Minella Indo & paid the price. He was 3s IR in 3m5 race & didn't stay, his PP run at Christmas wasn't too bad till 2 out blunder. Basically, we've seen this before from Sneezy Elliot - one race in the year matters. Also, Elliot could have picked from  Escaria Ten, Farclas, Run Wild Fred or Coko Beach (all 5 day entries). Id have had all of them 2nd fav at least here. So, with that, the recent wind op and the nature of his 'competitiveness' this year,  I think he  should be 2nd fav himself, ahead of the solid pair Aye Right & OFTT. Fav is correct but i cant put number on how short he should be. 

Recomm 1 pt ew Milan Native 7/1

Boodles:
Gambrose, myself and a friend spoke recently. We all agreed this race could kill a man with its complexity. We also agreed there's no way the best Elliot/Foster horse should be the price he is on trainer profile alone. Add in the form behind Thedevilscoachman last day and you have a bet that will prevent you trying to decode this impossible puzzle horse by horse!

Recomm 1 pt ew Riviere D'etel 10/1

 


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