A solid enough start and our treble stays live into Thursdays Mares race so something to look forward to later in the week. Tomorrow is probably the trappiest of the 4 days with a lot of unopposable favourites where the best value is to be had trying to guess who will win best of the rest.
Ballymore Hurdle:
The one clear thing from today's Supreme is where the balance of power lies between Ireland and Britain when it comes to novice hurdlers. The British were beaten out of sight and again are taking up too much of the market in tomorrow's race. My response when asked about Bravemansgame a few days ago was rather flippantly to say 'sure he's only up there in the betting to give the English mugs something to bet on' which although harsh is likely true. There is a certain amount of geography that goes into making a book for the novice races at Cheltenham and no book is complete without at least one representative from each side of the sea regardless of the imbalance in either direction. Bravemansgame may quite possibly be the pick of the English novice hurdles but winning that tallest dwarf competition won't help him against what is possibly the best of the Irish novices. Bob Olinger got closer to the ill fated Ferny Hollow on his hurdling debut than Appreciate It managed in last years Champion Bumper. Since then he's followed up with 2 routine wins including strolling away from Blue Lord in a G1 the last day. He sets a very high standard here and should have the measure of Gaillard du Mesnil who likely will fill the runners up spot behind him.
2pts win Bob Olinger 6/4
2pts place Gaillard du Mesnil 1.88
Brown Advisory Chase:
I think Monkfish is already a shorter price to win next years Gold Cup than any of the other horse here are to win this race. He looked a monster the last day and is unopposable here. In terms of value here even the betting without is largely priced correctly with the step up in trip likely to help Sporting John but Eklat du Rire looked like a horse for the future the last day and given how close Escaria Ten finished in the NH Chase today despite his jumping going to pieces suggests that Eklat might just shade it for best of the rest.
.5pts Eklat du Rire w/o Monkfish 5/2
Champion Chase:
A very weak renewal with Chacun Pour Soi the standout talent here. Anything close to evens is almost certainly value. Since joining Willie Mullins he's won 5 of his 6 races comfortably and the only horse to beat him was future Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard who caught him cold the Christmas before last. The field in behind is for the most part a collection of British has been's and journeymen. Politilogue was a below average Champion Chase winner to begin with and is now in decline, Nube Negra seems to be rated as if it was Altior in his prime that he beat at Christmas rather than an aging giant. First Flow is an honest horse who made the most of an enterprising ride the last day to beat Politilogue but in reality is a G2 horse at best. most baffling of all though is that I can guarantee that before the off tomorrow at least one person will tip up Rouge Vif as the value bet to you with no justification. Despite repeatedly being well beaten by half of the horse in the field. In normal time I would suggest befriending these poor lost souls and possibly buying them a pint with a view to encouraging them to bet against you on any other baseless premonitions they may have. Unfortunately in times of COVID that's not really possible so perhaps its kindest to just smile and nod and move quickly away before they start explaining how COVID is a fraud perpetuated by Bill Gates to cull all the poor people in the world. There are however two proper G1 horses buried in the field both in their prime and both should be back without the favourite. Put The Kettle On should be a fairly obvious pick. Last years Arkle winner (20Ls ahead of Rouge Vif) and 3/3 at the course. She is a gutsy mare and will relish the hill. She also is the one horse that is there is any chink in CpS's armour she will expose it. The other is really the forgotten horse of the race. Last years Arkle favourite Notebook. He sweated up badly before the race last year but is apparently enjoying her racing more this year without the crowds. He got within 7L of CpS at Christmas (1.75Ls ahead of PTKO) which is likely a lot closer than any of these will tomorrow. Priced up as a no hoper I expect a big race tomorrow in a silent Cotswolds.
2.5pts ew Notebook w/o CpS 18/1
1.5pts Put The Kettle On w/o CpS 7/2
X Country Chase:
Just the one French raider this year - last years winner Easysland. Probably wins this again with the main competition in the market an aging Tiger Roll. Possibly we get the fairytale ending for Tiger and he gets to retire a champion at one of his favourite stomping grounds. More likely he'll prove himself not to be the force of old and go out with a whimper without even an appreciative crowd to give him a send off when he does trot in. Scanning down through the entries the only one of any real interest is former NH Chase winner Le Breuil. He has his sights set on Aintree but this has been a great stepping stone in that direction as Tiger can attest. At 18/1 he is worth a nibble each way.
0.5pts ew Le Breuil 18/1
Bumper:
Not one I've put a lot of thought into and Sir Gerhard moving to Willie's yard means the market really should have a very clear opinion tomorrow how this should be priced. For myself I had to have a little nibble on Sir Gerhard based purely on human behaviour. People overweight the most recent thing they've seen or heard and so Sir Gerhard not going to the DRF while Kilcruit did means Kilcruit is fresher in peoples memory. Throw in the fact that Kilcruit ran a very deceiving race that day where your eyes and the clock tell two different stories (see Simon Rowlands Sectional Spotlight for more) means its inevitable that people will over-react in how short they make Kilcruit.
1pt Sir Gerhard 2/1
And now for the handicaps:
One from the front, and one from the back please Carol! The task here as always is to find the lurkers with lots in hand and hope they end up on the right end pace wise. I'm hoping Sneaky Getaway returns to the front end instead of the disastrous hold up effort at Christmas which timeform argued hindered his jumping. Sneaky Emmet is as respected a trainer as his uncle in these big handicaps and i think he goes off a lot shorter - you would not even be surprised were he to be single figures the way this yard operates. Dysart Diamond will be stone last to try get the trip & need luck as he weaves through, but again, hes very lightly raced for Emmet's uncle and there no proof we've seen the bottom of him yet. Cross off the last day - fallers in front ended his race when starting to weave through. Townend is on Koshari instead but I'd have Dysart closer to him than market does now. For market watchers, if Palmers Hill starts to shorten significantly, join the party. he is very well handicapped if on song
1.5 pts ew Sneaky Getaway 16s
0.75 pts ew Dysart Diamond 25s
Grand annual
My biggest handicap bet of the week will be Not That Fuisse. Long story short, I think there's a vg chance his best trip will be this well run 2m & we haven't got to see him try it yet. Backed him last year & didnt get in. Is 7lb higher now but on the plus side, his novice chase behind Southfield Royale (fav in big Kempton hc lately on beloved gd gd) & Coole Cody (pp winner) is vg. also, hes had the wind op lately for the in form Skelton yd. on his Exeter run, he wouldn't go close but tried cheekpieces that day & discarded them immediately. At the price, q mks obvo exist, but i think hes about a 14s shot. The 3 of us have been watching Embittered's campaign this year with a smirk like many people. Placed off this mark in last years county, this has clearly been the aim all year. Timeform has repeatedly stated he is a chaser so theres an angle for better than last year. well found in the market, but could actually end up way shorter like Chosen Mate did last year
2 pts ew Not That Fuisse 18s
2 pt win Embittered 11/2
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