Enough today to keep things ticking over without ever really looking like landing one of our bigger priced pokes. Tomorrow though is probably the day I'm most excited about of the week both in terms of the racing and the punting. A couple of properly competitive Championship races that both look like they will take some winning, a novice chase that's not as one-sided as it seems and a very high standard Mares novice race that somehow is the defining moment of the 2021 Cheltenham.
Marsh's Chase:
Another Novice race another odds on Irish jolly that is surely impossible to oppose...or is it. Envoi has beaten nothing this season although to be fair you can only beat what is put in front of you but to be getting involved at a price like this I would want either a weak field or a very impressive demolition job in the build up neither of which we have. Looking through the field there are several with G1's to their name or clock shattering performances and hard to think that at least one of them won't at least give him something to think about tomorrow. Shan Blue won the Kauto Star at Christmas and his jumping has been foot perfect all season however despite that jumping he still managed to get caught late on by Sporting John the last day who only started racing a half mile from the finish. I think he just won't quite have the engine to live with some of the others on that evidence and happy to pass over here. Chatham Street Lad is intriguing. He broke the clock in a handicap at the course back in December but that performance is more of an outlier with most of his runs well below that level. A reproduction of it could give him a real chance here but not a horse I would want to trust with my cash. The other 2 contenders raced that same day in December over course and distance and even though not as eye catching it was a pretty deep race for a 3 horse race. Lieutenant Rocco was due to start as fav in Tuesday's Ultima before injury intervened and he split Chantry House and Fusil Raffles that day. Surprisingly the 3rd horse that day Chantry House is half the price of the horse that beat him which seems strange to me. Fusil has always been an incredibly talented horse who once went off joint favourite in a Christmas hurdle with Epatante and is 3/4 over fences including a course and distance win. He needs to clean up his jumping a bit but if he can he could be the big improver that will give Envoi his biggest test to date. Maybe Envoi will be good enough to overcome this but at 20/1 I'm happy enough to chance that he won't.
0.5pts Fusil Raffles 20/1
1pt Fusil Raffles w/o Envoi 6/1
Ryanair Chase:
One of the best races of the meeting for me you could make a case for half a dozen here. Min is an old favourite but the first signs of old age are starting to creep in and I couldn't back him at 10 given that he is likely at the start of a pretty rapid decline. Allaho seems to be largely priced off last years form having been beaten out of sight in the John Durkan by Min before coming a distant 4th and Leopardstown and ended whatever GC aspirations he may have had. Melon is a horse I love who always saves his best run of the year for the festival but has a nasty habit of always finding at least 1 too good for him. Imperial Aura's win from last year was franked by Galvin in the NH Chase but I think it still leaves a little more required for this step up in class. Samcro is intriguing - 2/2 at the festival but really a horse than blows hot and cold ever since his lung infection 2 years ago. However the horse I've been sweet on for a long time in this is Fakir D'Oudairies. A very close second in last years Arkle behind today's Champion Chase winner and after not really staying 3m at Christmas put in a very respectable 2nd behind Chacan Pour Soi the last day in Leopardstown. This middle distance should prove ideal for him and he can come out on top in what promises to be a cracker.
1pt Fakir D'oudaries 13/2
Stayer's Hurdle:
Another cracker with several angles to come at it from. The first and main angle is looking at the horse that isn't here - Thyme Hill. He had 2 matchups with Paisley Park and won 1 and lost 1. Off the back of that he was more or less joint favourite before injury intervened. Go back one more race from that though and you'll see him 4th behind the Monkfish Monster at last years festival which is obviously no disgrace but looking at the horse one place ahead of him that day (Fury Road) you have to wonder how PP can be 2s and FR is 8s. FR hasn't had everything go to plan this year. Ran very well behind Flooring Porter at Christmas when the stable was completely out of sorts and then had a very solid race at Navan the last day just pipped by Beacon Edge over a trip too short. He should be coming here ready for a season's best and definitely the value of the race if he's back in top form. The other angle I like into this race is last years Pertemps Hurdle where Sire du Berlais edged the Storyteller by half a length before The Storyteller reversed the form beating SdB by 3/4L in the Leop Christmas hurdle when finishing like a train. I think despite his age the Storyteller should not be so big in comparison to SdB and I also think a cheeky little forecast on the 2 is well justified given their previous.
2pts Fury Rd 8/1
1pt The Storyteller 11/1
.5pts The Storyteller/Sire du Berlais RFC
Mare's Novice Hurdle:
So I've a confession to make. I backed Hook Up antepost..then I backed her again. Then I Texas hedged with some doubles and eventually threw in a cheeky treble to make things interesting. Our fate hinges on the smallest of margins sometimes and I am pot committed tomorrow and so to some extent I'm talking up my own book here. Unfortunately for me the more I look at this the better the race looks. Usually this is one of the worst races of the meeting but this year looks an exceptional standard. The 2 horse being backed tonight are the Glens of Antrim who ran Stattler to 3Ls and Tellmesomethingirl who was 3rd behind todays winner Heaven Help us at Leopardstown. In a normal year either of those pieces of form would have you clear favourite. However our girl Hook Up has run Blue Lord to a length (6Ls behind Appreciate It) the last day in Leoparstown and I still believe that is the strongest piece of form on show here. She does need to polish up her jumping but I would forgive her run behind Royal Kahala in Fairyhouse - she's raced in Fairyhouse twice now both times in bottomless ground. Both times she's been heavily odds on coming to the last and both times has just stopped in the mud on the run in. Last year it was the subsequent Triumph winner Burning Victory who nabbed her, this year it was Royal Kahala but on better ground she'll be a different beast and should overturn that form. Royal Kahala/Rosey's Hollow and Gauloise all have very close form off the last day so hopefully her improvement and the better ground will see off all of them. The more I write the more I'm convincing myself I need to go in again....oh well in for a penny
1pt Hook Up 7/1
The handicaps got squeezed for time tonight but briefly here is what the King has done:
Pertemps:
0.5pt Champagne Platinum 11/1
0.5pt Dandy Mag 25/1
PP Plate:
0.5pt win Laskalin ~60/1 BF
0,5pt ew Oldgrangewood 25/1
Kim Muir
1pt ew Sizing at Midnight 28/1
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