The House Always wins!

 A mixed day today and despite the gut punch of Galopin coming to grief at the last we are still standing with a fighting chance heading into Gold Cup Friday. Another Cheltenham another year of it all coming down to the final day to make our great escape and come out on top for the week. After 2 years of work commitments I finally get to take the afternoon tomorrow to watch every second of the racing supping Guinness and spouting nonsense. Covid is over and the good times are back! So on to this year's last day Houdini act.

Triumph:

The market looks largely right here and the 2 at the top of the market have looked like monsters in their races so far. I do get the impression that Vauban wasn't particularly wound up when narrowly going down to the Pied Piper on their debuts. Both have improved markedly since then and on their bare form I probably wouldn't have much between them. However it seems for Vauban there has always been bigger plans for his career than anything that would happen as a Juvenile and his smooth progress this season has always been viewed as a bonus rather than a goal in itself. I would be pretty happy to say that he has the higher upper bound of the two but I guess the only question is how far is he from reaching that already. Judging by the last day he is going to take some beating tomorrow. Second and third in Pied Pipers Trials Day rout have been average at best since whereas Fil D'or is a rock solid yardstick to measure Vauban against. I think Vauban will be very hard to top tomorrow. Looking down through the rest of the field at Leopardstown that day you'll hear everyone talk about their 'dark horse' of Il Etait Temps. A horse so dark he might as well be wearing luminous striped pyjama's. Yes he shaped well the last day when never asked to really try and win the race but with every goon with a mike shouting from the rooftops about for the last month he's nearly broken the taxi driver index of overhyped outsider. His position in the market is so far removed from what he achieved that day that he is creating a few little distortions we can hopefully exploit. If you can line up a few match bets tomorrow vs either Icare Allen or Fil D'or take them. He has probably also distorted the place market and is creating a little bit of value in a bet to nothing on Fil D'or ew with 4 places.

1.5pts Vauban 15/8

0.5pts e/w Fil D'or 13/2

Albert Bartlett:

Hillcrest was impressive on the clock the last day but that doesn't really tell the full story. He also tried to bunny hop 2 or 3 of his fences and Yogi Breisner has been called in to try and get him right. A horse that I really can't trust based on the clips I've watched particularly in the hands of an average at best jockey and definitely not at these prices. Ginto's form can't really be knocked and probably should be favourite but a couple of others further down the list might have a bit more appeal. Stag Horn was rated at 108 at his peak on the flat and is 2 from 2 over hurdles including a G2. He hasn't really done enough to win a race like this yet but he definitely has the scope to improve and having gotten within about 6Ls of Stratum over 2m5f (giving 2lbs) on the flat so the distance should be no issue. Another horse at a big price that gets interesting on the softer ground is Eric Bloodaxe. He was comfortably beaten by Ginto in Navan before winning a G2 in Limerick in the traditional Christmas bottomless ground before disappointing again at Leopardstown. On the pick of his form on soft ground he could easily be the horse to grind it out on soft ground tomorrow and at 40/1 is worth a speculative punt.

0.75pts ew Stag Horn 18/1

0.5pts ew Eric Bloodaxe 40/1

Gold Cup:

I don't really have anything bad to say about Galvin but I don't have anything great to say about him either. Obviously a solid enough horse who was a good winner of a pretty hot NH Chase here last year and kept improving but he really hasn't done enough to be favourite. It seemed pretty likely the better horse lost at Leopardstown at Christmas and comfortably the best form on offer this season is A Plus Tard coming second there on the back of a 22L romp against the delusion hype horse that is  Royal Pig. Royal Pig is a  horse who has been beaten 47 and 22 lengths by A Plus Tard the last 2 times they met but somehow 'this time is different' and he is now being quoted at a single digit price in places. I've already place laid this collective insanity. Minella Indo is taking a lot on trust and the believe that he really is a different horse in Cheltenham and I'm happy to pass at around 11/2. The Protektorat price is another anomaly that is hard to explain - getting single digit quotes off beating an OAP into retirement. Three horses finished that day - Native River has since had his bus pass approved and Sam Brown came off second best in a mud wrestling contest with the Royal Pig despite getting a stone off him the next time out so not exactly rock solid form. Bizarrely the one UK runner not to be hyped out of all proportion is Chantry House. 2 years ago he was 3rd in probably the hottest Supreme in memory pre-Tuesday. Shiskin fought it out with Abracadabras that day with Chantry back in 3rd coming in just ahead of Asterion Fallover (this years Irish GC fav) with this years Arkle winner 12Ls back in 6th. He followed that up by winning the JLT last year winning a little cosily from Fusil Raffles and AF. Romped home first time out this season and was a very well backed fav of the King George (vs Minella Indo) before flopping there. His win against Santini wasn't pretty but he got the job done and with Hendo flying again this week he should hopefully be back to his stunning best.

2.5pts ew Chantry House 16/1

.5pts ew A Plus Tard 7/2

Foxhunters Chase:

A race that's fallen through the cracks for me this week. But on a first scan the horse that looks like he's being overlooked a little is Cousin Paschal. He won the Aintree Foxhunters last year and beat Bob and Co over 2m6f in heavy ground as part of his prep. hard to see how B&C is less than half of his price.

0.5pts ew Cousin Paschal

Mares Chase:

Very little between the top 2 in the market here. Mount Ida is slightly better but Elimay is prob slightly more reliable and not in danger of trying to jump to the right. Every thing else looks to be running for place money and I'm actually just happy to back whichever of these 2 is the bigger price which at the time of writing is Elimay.

1pt win Elimay 9/4

County hurdle

These big fez handicaps are fascinating betting events. Max, there is room for 2 or 3 of the field to be under 10.0 on BF at the off. So who makes the cut? State Man is obvo in, but impossible to put any mark on him. If he moon walks home all the best to him. I don't think Colonel Mustard stays in, too exposed for me for this. West Cork has shown a lot of his hand too and i think the excuses for his Ladbroke run are weak enough. The one who can go under 10.0 is I Like To Move It. Timeform (yes i know!!) have him 4lb clear on their rating plus a p, after his excellent 2nd in the BF hurdle. The winner did that form no harm in the champion hurdle so there could be lot more to come. At 12s ew, i don't see it being a bad bet. Even if he drifts to 16 on bf, your ew part is still good. He will likely be towards the front of a frenetic pace, but as the coral showed us the last two years, these burn ups don't always materialise.

In case of a burn up, best take a hold up horse too. Gua du Large will be last most of the way.....but can dink and dunk his way through to glory hopefully. Only one proper handicap run off a v hot gallop saw her steal the day. That form is working out very well indeed. Market didnt like her night before being a NR in the liffey, and same again this evening, but the only market time that matters is 5 mins before!

2pts ew I like to move it 12s

1 pt ew Gua du Large 33s

Martin Pipe

Are you a potential Grade 1 horse of the future? If not, jog on pal - this is big boy stuff. Two who are include Adamantly Chosen and Decimation. AC is obvious, willies number 1 on jockey bookings who took an enormous leap forward last time. Again, from 7s how much can he drift? Beyond 10s, i doubt it. So if not, ew part keeps you good. 

Decimation needs bit more explaining. Basically a progressive novice last yr who ran an excellent close 2nd to Ashdale Bob in his first G2. Then tbtbt next time at Punch. On what AB did since, we can argue Decimations graded days weren't over. After the Punch flop, not seen till a beautiful comeback in handicap hurdle at FH a few wks back. Travelled as well as any to 2 out & blew up - after 11 months off - thats totally fine! Mike O'Connor a perfectly able pilot here. Oh, and pick any other hurdle run of his and tell me he's not well handicapped! Juiciest prices disappearing but still happy ew at 20s

1.5 pts ew Adamantly chosen 7s

1.5 pts ew Decimation 20s

We have all the Thyme in the World

 Cheltenham - the Olympics for horses. Yesterday we had some outstanding performances on the track and today courtesy of the clerk of the course we got to witness what the horses could do in the pool before he borrowed a leaf from Winter Olympics and treated us to a slalom race where we got a winner so classy he would have excelled no matter what comedy discipline got throw at him. Who knows what new challenges the clerk will have for us tomorrow but I would guess after today's fiasco the bet of the festival next year will be for the ground to be good to firm on day 1!

Turners Chase:

A match so good they've already chased away all the opposition. Hard to believe only 4 declared here with some easy prize money available for anyone who can complete the course, however the start billing of the top 2 makes it seem certain this won't disappoint however in what is effectively a match and priced up more or less pick em I would have a clear preference. For me this is horse equivalent of Quentin Tarantino versus Woody Allen. Bob Olinger in clearly very smart but he worries too much for his own good. He's nervous and cautious and approaches each fence like a dog with a shock collar approaching the edge of his boundaries. Galopin Des Champs on the other hand - every thing he does is slick. Its quick, its sharp and extravagant. He attacks his fences like a young Moscow Flyer and makes up so much ground in the air against a pedestrian jumper like BO that even before we start comparing engine size Bob is going to have his work cut out to keep tabs as they go around. The softer ground is not ideal as it reduces the edge of fast quick extravagant jumping and tilts things back in favour of engine size as with everything happening at a slower pace its harder to make your jumping superiority count for as much. That said it still counts as something and engine size is not a particular concern as GdC has made big steps forward this year in looking every inch a Gold Cup winner in the making and his cruising speed through his races has been up there with anything Bob has shown this season. If the ground was good or better I would be on GdC at almost any price. On heavy ground he will have to the future Gold Cup winner I believe him to be to win this but as a slight dog in this 2 horse race its a no brainer who to side with.

2pts Galopin Des Champ 11/10

Ryanair Chase:

It's hard to really look past lasts years impressive winner when looking at the outright market here but also hard to know whether getting involved at 8/11 is really a worthwhile venture. The value would seem to be in the other markets betting without and to place. Shan Blue was on course to post a career best performance before falling 3 out in the Charlie Hall but before that was well beaten twice by the 2022 Gold Cup winner at last years big festivals. One spring does not a summer make though and people seem a little over eager to dismiss his long absence or even the fact that his last run was a fall despite what went before and I'm happy to swerve at these prices. Conflated benefited from a great ride by Davy the last day and isn't as good as that bare form suggests so again is not for me at these prices. Eldorado will surely be ridden to try to place as opposed to win which may work in his favour but even still I would have a preference for the remaining 2 Irish horse ahead of him. The John Durkan at the start of the season where Allaho was made to work hard to see off Janidil and Melon. Janidil and Melon have been within a couple of lengths of each other all season and likely won't be far between them again tomorrow. B365 have an outrageous 8/1 on Melon without which for a horse who has festival form figures of 2222P seems particularly generous. I'll still happily take some of the 13/2 generally available though. Janidil is about a 9/2 shot in the same market which is also worth a small play. Unfortunately the NR takes away the ew aspect of these bets but still enough edge win only to happily play both.

1pt Melon w/o fav 8/1

1pt Janidil w/o fav 9/2

 

World Hurdle:

A bit of a mess of a race but there is probably not a whole lot between the top 2 in the market based on the Leopardstown running. A bit too much has been made of the lead poached at the start that day and on his day I would have Klassical Dream at least the match of Flooring Porter. Both however have their quirks and neither looks overly appealing at the current prices. Champ is probably a horse whose day in the sun has already passed him by without him realizing it and his RSA win will likely be the highlight of a career that promised so much but ultimately was a big disappointment to all involved. Royal Kahala's price at 5/1 is more bizarre than the most obscure Monty Python sketch with people seeming latching on to the fact that she likes soft ground and dismissing the fact that she would hardly have been 5/1 if she had contested the Mares Hurdle rather than a Championship race. Outside of mares only races she won a Galmoy that completely fell apart by 1.75Ls from a horse that is 80/1 reopposing today. I hope whatever simpleton is piling into the soft ground double of Royal Kahala and Royal Pagaille at these prices hasn't got their heating money on it or they'll be hibernating in cardboard boxes until the other side of Aintree. Thyme Hill looks the real class of the field here and the season after being an unlucky 4th in the Albert Bartlett behind Monkfish he went toe to toe with a peak Paisley Park before missing Cheltenham with an injury and picking up his G1 in Aintree a few weeks later instead. Things didn't go to plan in France at the start of the season before a fine performance in the Long Walk and should improve past Champ from there. A slightly curious entry is Song for Someone who was just off top class over 2m. He ran Buzz to 3Ls over 2m4f and possibly will improve for the step up in trip here. Of those at the bottom of the tissue he is definitely the one with the scope to spring a surprise.

1.5pts ew Thyme Hill 9/2

0.5pts ew Song For Someone 40/1

Dawn Run:

The favourite here could be anything but 2/1 off 1 run in Clonmel in a race when in the past experience has been made to count seems ambitious. No less than Epatante was 6th in this when lining up on just her 3rd start. Brandy Love was favourite for a while seemingly by default despite having run like a dog chasing a butterfly the last day on the run in and looking back to her bumpers she didn't find a whole lot when challenged by Party Central and Grangee at the DRF last year. You could make a reasonable case for Grangee who fell before really getting to put down a challenge the last day but had run well in an open G1 the time before but of all the Mullins horses it really looks like there is one being massively overlooked. Statuaire is a G1 winner and granted it was a messy G1 that turned into a bit of a sprint she still had a lot of useful horses in behind that day. Given the question marks around so many of these 20/1 in a mares only race for a Royal Bond winner seems fine to me.

0.5pts ew Statuaire 22/1

Pertemps

Before we start - the ground. Yes it finished heavy. However, I'm no geography major, but I'm pretty sure when it doesn't rain & the sun comes out, things dry! two 14 degree sunny days to come at a course that dries quickly. Don't be surprised it its riding soft by tomorrows later races. 

Most of my punts are Irish nags who will go on anything so not too bothered. But if doing your own thing, don't get sucked into the Somme narrative too much

Now, racing - a great pertemps as always. I am going to be unoriginal here and follow Emmet Mullins, a man who I would follow into the fires of hell/yesterdays evenings puddles! Him & Paul Byrne smashed into Winter Fog at Leop and should have won - hit front too soon. Only his first run for the yard so any amount of potential improvement. Willie saddles no runner and Townend rides for Emmet - Willie's nephew & neighbouring yard - I'll let you do the maths!

Also adding Third Wind who ran a great race off this mark in this race 2 yrs. Stepped in with the big Stayers boys then & wasn't good enough. Mark is back down and his TFR the last day was as gd as ever. Nicest prices gone today so smaller stakes at 20s

2pts ew Winter Fog

0.5 pts ew Third Wind

Festival Plate

Of those at the top of the market - 3 nicely improving and or unexposed English ones meet a Gordo unexposed one. Ill side with Gordo as 4th fav until these markets start telling us i'm wrong. Don't be surprised if he goes off fav

Have to have a small dart at a certain rag - purely on trainer ability for big meetings. Paul Gilligan (worth a google if you've never heard of him - shifty eyes emoji!!) has a very small stable that he rebuilt after (insert google story). Yet, he has won big handicap chases at the DRF and Galway festival with target horses that basically "prep" for one day only. Also specialised in Galway festival winners before (insert....). Born by the sea is the horse. Looks exposed after his 5l beat in Kerry national but that is still excellent Irish handicap form and on that alone he should not be 66s. Handles any ground, has an excellent target trainer and is worth a small ew stake or shot on BF win market

1pt ew Grand Paradis 8s

0.5pt ew Born by the sea

Kim Muir

Lots of well handicapped sorts/ones with excellent Irish hcap form. The pick of that stuff is School Boy hours - won the red hot PP handicap chase at christmas and i will die on the hill of that race. Should be fav & is slowly but surely becoming so.

However, dive into the fires of hell/puddles with Emmet again and back Rightplacerittime again. Probably gets smashed, probably jumps like a piano again, probably a great losing bet again. Maybe they just threw him in the horse box to accompany Winter Fog......or maybe the horse they have obliterated in the market on his last two big irish handicaps gets punted off the boards again.....at 16s +, im more than happy to pay to find out. Not being ridiculous, but could go off 5s alongside school boy

2pts ew Rightplacerittime 16s

1.5 pts ew School Boy Hours 11/2

Brooks was here

 An incredible day of racing but unfortunately not an incredible day of punting (not even from a paper profit perspective). We saw 2 true superstars today and what was one of the strongest fields assembled in recent years for a Supreme was simply blown away by a monster performance from Constitution Hill. A tough start for the betting bank but no more than a minor setback in our task for besting the bookies over the week. Tomorrow is a day that a week ago I didn't hold out much hope for, but the closer we get the more excited I get. The races have set themselves up to benefit the punters and we will take full advantage of any generosity on offer.

Ballymore:

A race that really revolves around Sir Gerhard. Last years bumper winner under an opportunistic ride by Rachel and this years superstar novice before today's jaw dropping Supreme. He was the class act of the 2 day DRF I was at recently despite his jumping being poor and he simply had too big an engine for Three Stripe life to live with that day. He tackles 2m5f for the first time tomorrow though and its not sure to suit given how he finished out his race last year. He wandered like a punchdrunk boxer on the run in and held on by an ever diminishing margin. It wasn't the performance of a horse that looked to be screaming out for an extra 5f. Three Stripe Life seems to have been over-rated by connections at every possible opportunity. A horse that always seems to find one to good for him he has never been disgraced - in his 3 G1's he has been beaten by Sir Gerhard (twice) Kilcruit, Elle Est Belle and Might Potter but in truth he never looked like winning any of them and to be honest he looks to be shaping up to be a poor mans Melon. The really interesting horse in the race is Journey With Me. Unbeaten in 3 starts under rules there can be no denying that 2 of them you'd have fancied your chances in on a rocking horse. However that 1 run of note over Christmas out galloping Kilcruit and the stricken one-time Albert Bartlett favourite Minealla Crooner. He will relish the trip and you know sure he will be galloping on up the hill at the end. Maybe Sir Gerhard will have the answer when he's asked turning in but at the prices it's impossible not to side with deBromheads budding star. I am probably being a bit dismissive of Stage Star given how well the British novices ran today but hard to make a case that the Challow was close to as strong a race as the Leopardstown Maiden despite the difference in grade and i would struggle to make him the same price as JWM. The one British horse that does intrigue me is I am Maximus. He ran a great race in defeat to Hillcrest but was still awarded a very lenient handicap mark of 134 which had me putting him in the category of 'back him at what every handicap he turns up at at the festival' which had me very disappointed and confused that they decided to run him here. Purely as a means of preserving my sanity in case of him winning I will do a small e/w double with Hillcrest in the Albert Bartlett but this is not necessarily a bet i would recommend following me in on!

2.5pts ew Journey With Me 8/1

RSA Chase:

This years novice chasing equivalent of the Christy Ring Cup - we have all the chasers not really good enough to consider tackling a Bob Olinger or a GdC over what would be their preferred trip of 2m4f (yes i mean you L'Homme Presse and Beacon Edge) thrown in with a flat track bully who crumpled like losing betting slip on the turn up the hill for home last years in the Ballymore and topped off with the rodeo clown that is Ahoy Senor and his connections. The pure fact that connections until very late in the day entertained the idea of running this horse in the Gold Cup is proof enough that either the trainer hasn't got a clue what she is doing or best case scenario is indulging the wildest fantasies of her owners which would be out of place in an Enid Blyton book. The horse could barely clamber over his fences the last day when asked to jump at speed against Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star and it would be a cruelty beyond the worst of anything SJ Mahon ever did to a horse to ask him to compete in a Gold Cup cavalry charge at this point in his career. Gordon Elliot always says you enter a horse in the race you think he'll win and Ruby will always have very similar sentiments anytime the prospect of running a novice in Open company for the hell of it comes up. There's a reason they tend to win things. So having discounted out of hand all of the fancied horse at the top of the betting it leaves only a handful of real options as a betting prospect. There is a lot to be said for Capodano and Farouk D'alene. Capodano gave Bob Olinger a real race over 2m4f only giving way after the last and the step up to 3m if more on a means of taking some of the pressure off his at times questionable jumping. He should improve enough with the extra 5f that if he keeps his jumping clean he will be in the mix at the end. Farouk had todays winner Stattler all out to beat him at Naas before a cosier than advertised win over Beacon Edge back at Navan the last day. Solid form which should see him in the mix (again with the caveat of his jumping holding up). However the more you dig into the race the harder it is to get away from one of my favourite cliff horses - Fury Road. His lack of consistency is frustrating but on the pick of his form he is a class act. Beaten a neck in an Albert Bartlett by the might Monkfish he was punted into favourite for the Stayer's last year before fading badly after somehow getting himself kicked in the head by another horse. He is a superslick jumper and when the mood takes him like at Christmas at Leopardstown where he beat Run Wild Fred by 8Ls in a G1 he is a force to be reckoned with. You can also probably upgrade his chase debut after Gabynako's run in the Arkle today - maybe 2m5f was neither horses trip but there wasn't much between them that day.

2pts ew Fury Road 16/1

Champion Chase:

I wasn't going to put up a bet in this race. I was going to advise just sit back and enjoy 2 great chasers at the peak go toe to toe a racing Thrilla in Manilla. The betting is maybe a little generous to Shiskins chances but given the uncertainty surrounding Energumene's 'stone bruise' and Henderson's form today it feels like the market is not far off. I had initially wondered if the market might set up a flithy each way punt on Chacun Pour Soi which the maths nerd in me would have felt obliged to punt but then seeing a few firms get a little ahead of themselves and start quoting 4/1 on Energumene it started to feel like it really is a bet to nothing. The most likely outcome tomorrow is that Shiskin is crowned one of the all time greats and much like today racing is the big winner ...but just in case 4/1 ew really is a bet to nothing.

2pts ew Energumene 4/1

Cross Country:

Haven't been able to make heads nor tails of this race tbh. Obviously want to oppose Tiger Roll as he romps to yet another victory though 😞 I have ended up having min stakes on both Delta Work (the new Tiger Roll) and Diesel D'allier the only C&D winner outside the 12yo Tiger.

.25pts ew Delta Work 7/1

.25pts ew Diesel D'allier 16/1

Bumper:

'He looks like he's even better than we thought he was' - WPM talking about a horse he only ever talks about like he is the second coming. That is all you need to know about this race. He was of course talking about Facile Vega (son of the legendary Quevega) after he smashed up the Goffs Future stars bumper at the DRF. This should be the shortest priced favourite of the week but for some reason it isn't right now. Here is the man himself giving some advice on the race

https://www.facebook.com/racingtv/videos/willie-mullins-get-stuck-in/782505819071461/

There are plenty paying 4 place which probably makes the saver on stable mate Redemption Day also a do.

 3pts Facile Vega 2.76 (Betfair)

.5pts ew Redemption Day 13/2

 

And after all those value loser a few winning tips:

Coral Cup

A hcap with fantastic quality. Saint felicien could literally be anything. Up in trip after 2 runs and had a champion hurdle entry. Ive been using timeform the last few yrs and I've only seen 2 x handicappers with capital Ps for potential from them - SF & Goodrisk at all (see him Friday hopefully). However, market hasn't missed him at all. Two which i think the market may have undervalued are Indigo breeze and grand roi. GR was discussed yesterday. Indigo is bred for distance but only steps up in trip now for handicap debut! Her beating of deploy the getaway in a maiden has her on a nice mark before you add in potential for more up in trip. 

1.5 pts ew Indigo breeze

(From yest) 1.5 pts ew Grand roi

Grand Annual

As discussed yesterday, all in on Andy Dufresne at these prices. 7s is still palatable too if you can snag ew.

Two other small darts to add - Elixir de nutz - on my beloved timeform ratings, has rediscovered his Tolworth winning form at kempton the last day. Tizzards reaction seemed to think so too. If so, hes one of the few English ones here with an angle to be quite ahead of his mark.

Have to add a saver on Paul Nicholls' Thyme White. Gambrose unearthed comments where Nicholls says he thinks he could be a 160 horse!! Lots of trainer comms usually filed alongside G for garbage, but Nicholls is not a bullshitter and knows a 160 horse when he sees one in the last 20 yrs

3 pts ew Andy Dufresne 

0.75 ew Elixir du nutz

0.5 pt win Thyme White

 

Wild and Stormy

 Another Cheltenham, another week of mayhem. For us thankfully mayhem of the good kind - doubles and yankees and tricasts to beat the band culminating in another Gold Cup Friday spent supping pints and counting our cash (hopefully). Unfortunately though its mayhem of a different kind for some many innocent people in the Ukraine being driven from their homes or dying trying to defend them. This blog is meant to be a source of fun and banter and not a place for moral highstooling or virtue signalling so all I will say is that this year I will be donating 10% of all my Cheltenham profits to the Red Cross to help provide for the basic needs of those displaced by the war and if by some chance despite listening to me you find yourself having a few winners over the week perhaps you would consider making a small donation below to help with the crisis. Thank you in advance.

https://donate.redcross.ie/

The Supreme:

A race for the ages with at least 4 top class novices here. For me the top 4 in the market have very similar chances although perhaps Dysart Dynamo's running style may set him up for being collared on the way up the hill. Even though Paul Townend has chosen Dysart Patrick has always spoke glowingly of Kilcruit and there might not be that much between the 2 Closutton big guns. Kilcruit's price is purely down to people fitting a narrative to his season that is massively unfair. Beaten twice at odds on before winning a nothing race by a distance people try to argue that he hasn't trained on from last year. However only for the fact that the talented but quirky Largy Debut turned up to what was supposed to be an egg and spoon race in Cork the first day when he clearly wasn't fully wound up the narrative would be very different. People would be talking about how he won his debut by 24Ls, went on to be outstayed over 2m4f against 2 top class middle distance novices before dropping back to 2m and breaking the clock around Punchestown. That is closer to the truth for Kilcruit but the first narrative has prevailed for most of the season and is why you can now get 8/1 about last seasons top bumper horse. I also do think that Jonbon will be suited by how the race is run and should also be much closer to his stablemate. Jonbon has passed every test so far running in races not run to suit and will finally get to run in a race in an end to end gallop and what he has achieved while not as eye-catching as Constitution Hill is at least its equal. In this battle of the WPM vs Hendo, Ire vs Eng it really should pay to side with the underdogs.

Given we are backing Kilcruit here it would be moronic not to tag on a little double with his Christmas conquerer Journey For Me in Wednesday's Ballymore. When Kilcruit storms up the hill tomorrow the value of that form with the 1-2-3 of JFM/Minella Crooner/Kilcruit will be there for all to see and he should shorten a lot from his current 7/1

2pts ew Kilcruit 15/2

0.5pts ew Jonbon 11/2

0.5pts ew double Kilcruit/Journey For Me

Arkle:

Another race where I don't really believe the gap between a couple of WPM's horses are really as big as the market claims. It is hard to argue with Blue Lord being the shortest of the Irish challenge but it would also seem pretty clear that horse likely to improve most from the Irish Arkle will be Saint Sam. Unlucky to not have been the Fred Winter last year when subsequent G1 winner Jeff Kidder snuck in off 128 he came up the hill best of the rest despite shouldering 11st8lb. He pulled 5Ls clear of Riviere d'Etel on the run up the hill last year giving her 5lb and even though he has to give her a slightly bigger 7lb mare's allowance this year I know who I would want to be backing on if they turn in side by side. Riviere d'Etel has left nothing hidden having already clocked up 5 chase starts this season using all her allowances to great advantage over the early part of the season but Saint Sam was only having his second chase start in the Irish Arkle and despite going too fast in the early part of the race and making a couple of bad jumping mistakes was still coming back for more at the end going down by 4Ls from Blue Lord and Riviere d'Etel. People were too busy after the race debating the stewards enquiry to appreciate the great performance in behind and if Saint Sam can cut out the jumping errors and learn from Leopardstown I think he can turn around that form with the other Irish runners. Edwardstone has to be respected and is clearly the pick of the UK runners and probably does deserve to be favourite. He is a better chaser than a hurdler but he's going to need to be as he was always just short of top class over hurdles and you would question how highly rated he was at home given they spent last season losing big handicaps over hurdles rather than heading novice chasing straight away. I think the Irish will prevail once again and given their tight formlines it is probably worth a speculative forecast or tricast with the main protagonists from DRF. In fact the main danger to our selection could well be Haut En Coleur but having fallen early in the Irish Arkle and only having completed 1 chase ever I am happy to leave him for another day once her has learned the game a bit better.

3pts ew Saint Sam

0.25pt F/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel

0.1pt T/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel/Blue Lord

Champion Hurdle:

A race that revolves around Honeysuckle who if she is anything close to her best will win. That said it is a competitive betting without market behind her and that is where we look for a bit of value. Appreciate It was very impressive last year but hasn't been seen since but even WPM will be hard pressed to win such a competitive Championship race off no prep. Teahupoo was impressive in the Red Mills the last day but that hasn't been missed by anyone and has possibly shortened too much in both the win and w/o markets. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Epatante the forgotten horse who is still coming here off the back of winning the Christmas Hurdle and has won and been placed in this the last 2 years but the horse that catches the eye is really Adagio. He ran a great race in defeat in the Greatwood and again when tacking Goshen off a break at the start of February. He traded heavily odds on that day to beat a peak Goshen before race fitness came into play on the run to the line and that prep should have him spot on for this. In a format where 2nd is good enough this plucky loser can still deliver us the cash.

1pt ew Adagio w/o Honeysuckle 11/1

Mares Hurdle:

The mares hurdle market makes no sense to me. The market is dominated by 2 horse who have largely raced against only their own sex all season. Queens Brook seems to be priced up off the potential of a Champion bumper 3rd several years ago while people are massively over-rating the value of the Dawn Run that Tellmesomethinggirl won at last years festival. Up against them you have 2 WPM mares that have been duking it out with the best of them all season. Stormy Ireland has been better than ever since returning to Willie's yard and her win in the Relkeel was possibly a career best. Only Roksana was too good for her in this 2 years ago and I can guarantee none of the top 2 are in that class. If there is a fly in the ointment for her its her stablemate Echos In Rain. Thought of as a Champion Hurdle horse this time last year that never really panned out but getting beaten 7Ls by Honeysuckle is miles clear of anything most of these horse will ever achieve in a lesser race she can definitely make her presence felt. The longer distance might just find her out and so my main bet will be Stormy Ireland with just a saver on EIR.

2.5pts ew Stormy Ireland 5/1

0.5pts ew Echos In Rain 9/1

NH Chase:

Very straightforward here do we side with class or experience? Stattler is the class of the race and will go on to be the best of these but in this marathon race a battle hardener slugger is usually the call. Run Wild Fred is a second season novice with form over 3m5f (2nd in the Irish National) and has made steady improvement all year. Found only my old favourite Fury Road too good in a G1 over 3m at Christmas. He will relish every inch of this task and Stattler will need to dig deeper than ever to prevail. My guess is he'll be found wanting when the big questions are asked and after Run Wild Fred wins I think a lot of people might be questioning how Fury Road (an Irish G1 winner and last years stayers hurdle fav) is 16/1 in an RSA that looks a lot like a consolation race for all the English chasers not fast enough to hang onto the coat-tails of Galopin Des Champ and Bob Olinger.

1pt Run Wild Fred 7/4

1pt double Run Wild Fred/Fury Road

And now for what you've really been waiting for - the Handicap King:

2.50 - Ultima:

I'll try keep write ups short this wk. The fav Floeur could be very well handicapped but can he jump cleanly though and did the track catch him out in the Martin Pipe last yr?? I wont lay him but I wont back him as fav. Think tea clipper should be close to fav. v progressive hurdler who went close at the festivals last yr. Angle is that hes all over a chaser yet disappointed in his last two runs after excellent debut but......hello wind op my old friend! If hes a better chaser as expected & wind op is the missing piece, he has lots in hand. Small stamina query but at the price LFG. Can't not also add Ben Dundee. Two time fez chase placed horse, beat a length in what will probably be the best handicap form of the year (working out red hot so far) in paddy power. Extra places a dream here with him as he will run his race as always but some of the unexposed ones could just have too much in hand for him. Preferably Tea Clipper!

1.5 pts ew Tea Clipper

 0.75 pt ew Ben Dundee

Fred winter:

Lol at willies import making handicap debut here as top timeform rated horse, without willie improvement even factored in! If you like willie favs, get a wheelbarrow. If you dont, move on

Other handicap bets for later in the wk where I dont think prices will last:

Wedneaday2.50/coral cup:      

1.5 pts ew Grand roi 16s - last years fav met all sorts of trouble & has been primed again for this it seems. as hot a race as it gets but I'll take last yrs fav with an excuse for last yr at double the price the next yr with Gordo & Davy & his prep just as gd. If they thought he was beat fair n square they would have gone for other handicaps or chasing. why wait another yr......

4.50/grand annual:  

3 pts ew Andy Dufresne 9s - will a horse go off bigger or shorter than you back it? I don't see how this lad is a drifter. Is this horse having his first run since November at this festival as a prep for something else? No chance. Has he got incredible back class & ran his career best run last time & still has a nice mk? Yes. Is he Gordos? Yes. Gordo also has the fav but don't be surprised if they flip flop. Buddy Rich found nothing off the bridle in his last handicap off what looked a nice mark but I'd have Andy ahead of him: