An incredible day of racing but unfortunately not an incredible day of punting (not even from a paper profit perspective). We saw 2 true superstars today and what was one of the strongest fields assembled in recent years for a Supreme was simply blown away by a monster performance from Constitution Hill. A tough start for the betting bank but no more than a minor setback in our task for besting the bookies over the week. Tomorrow is a day that a week ago I didn't hold out much hope for, but the closer we get the more excited I get. The races have set themselves up to benefit the punters and we will take full advantage of any generosity on offer.
Ballymore:
A race that really revolves around Sir Gerhard. Last years bumper winner under an opportunistic ride by Rachel and this years superstar novice before today's jaw dropping Supreme. He was the class act of the 2 day DRF I was at recently despite his jumping being poor and he simply had too big an engine for Three Stripe life to live with that day. He tackles 2m5f for the first time tomorrow though and its not sure to suit given how he finished out his race last year. He wandered like a punchdrunk boxer on the run in and held on by an ever diminishing margin. It wasn't the performance of a horse that looked to be screaming out for an extra 5f. Three Stripe Life seems to have been over-rated by connections at every possible opportunity. A horse that always seems to find one to good for him he has never been disgraced - in his 3 G1's he has been beaten by Sir Gerhard (twice) Kilcruit, Elle Est Belle and Might Potter but in truth he never looked like winning any of them and to be honest he looks to be shaping up to be a poor mans Melon. The really interesting horse in the race is Journey With Me. Unbeaten in 3 starts under rules there can be no denying that 2 of them you'd have fancied your chances in on a rocking horse. However that 1 run of note over Christmas out galloping Kilcruit and the stricken one-time Albert Bartlett favourite Minealla Crooner. He will relish the trip and you know sure he will be galloping on up the hill at the end. Maybe Sir Gerhard will have the answer when he's asked turning in but at the prices it's impossible not to side with deBromheads budding star. I am probably being a bit dismissive of Stage Star given how well the British novices ran today but hard to make a case that the Challow was close to as strong a race as the Leopardstown Maiden despite the difference in grade and i would struggle to make him the same price as JWM. The one British horse that does intrigue me is I am Maximus. He ran a great race in defeat to Hillcrest but was still awarded a very lenient handicap mark of 134 which had me putting him in the category of 'back him at what every handicap he turns up at at the festival' which had me very disappointed and confused that they decided to run him here. Purely as a means of preserving my sanity in case of him winning I will do a small e/w double with Hillcrest in the Albert Bartlett but this is not necessarily a bet i would recommend following me in on!
2.5pts ew Journey With Me 8/1
RSA Chase:
This years novice chasing equivalent of the Christy Ring Cup - we have all the chasers not really good enough to consider tackling a Bob Olinger or a GdC over what would be their preferred trip of 2m4f (yes i mean you L'Homme Presse and Beacon Edge) thrown in with a flat track bully who crumpled like losing betting slip on the turn up the hill for home last years in the Ballymore and topped off with the rodeo clown that is Ahoy Senor and his connections. The pure fact that connections until very late in the day entertained the idea of running this horse in the Gold Cup is proof enough that either the trainer hasn't got a clue what she is doing or best case scenario is indulging the wildest fantasies of her owners which would be out of place in an Enid Blyton book. The horse could barely clamber over his fences the last day when asked to jump at speed against Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star and it would be a cruelty beyond the worst of anything SJ Mahon ever did to a horse to ask him to compete in a Gold Cup cavalry charge at this point in his career. Gordon Elliot always says you enter a horse in the race you think he'll win and Ruby will always have very similar sentiments anytime the prospect of running a novice in Open company for the hell of it comes up. There's a reason they tend to win things. So having discounted out of hand all of the fancied horse at the top of the betting it leaves only a handful of real options as a betting prospect. There is a lot to be said for Capodano and Farouk D'alene. Capodano gave Bob Olinger a real race over 2m4f only giving way after the last and the step up to 3m if more on a means of taking some of the pressure off his at times questionable jumping. He should improve enough with the extra 5f that if he keeps his jumping clean he will be in the mix at the end. Farouk had todays winner Stattler all out to beat him at Naas before a cosier than advertised win over Beacon Edge back at Navan the last day. Solid form which should see him in the mix (again with the caveat of his jumping holding up). However the more you dig into the race the harder it is to get away from one of my favourite cliff horses - Fury Road. His lack of consistency is frustrating but on the pick of his form he is a class act. Beaten a neck in an Albert Bartlett by the might Monkfish he was punted into favourite for the Stayer's last year before fading badly after somehow getting himself kicked in the head by another horse. He is a superslick jumper and when the mood takes him like at Christmas at Leopardstown where he beat Run Wild Fred by 8Ls in a G1 he is a force to be reckoned with. You can also probably upgrade his chase debut after Gabynako's run in the Arkle today - maybe 2m5f was neither horses trip but there wasn't much between them that day.
2pts ew Fury Road 16/1
Champion Chase:
I wasn't going to put up a bet in this race. I was going to advise just sit back and enjoy 2 great chasers at the peak go toe to toe a racing Thrilla in Manilla. The betting is maybe a little generous to Shiskins chances but given the uncertainty surrounding Energumene's 'stone bruise' and Henderson's form today it feels like the market is not far off. I had initially wondered if the market might set up a flithy each way punt on Chacun Pour Soi which the maths nerd in me would have felt obliged to punt but then seeing a few firms get a little ahead of themselves and start quoting 4/1 on Energumene it started to feel like it really is a bet to nothing. The most likely outcome tomorrow is that Shiskin is crowned one of the all time greats and much like today racing is the big winner ...but just in case 4/1 ew really is a bet to nothing.
2pts ew Energumene 4/1
Cross Country:
Haven't been able to make heads nor tails of this race tbh. Obviously want to oppose Tiger Roll as he romps to yet another victory though 😞 I have ended up having min stakes on both Delta Work (the new Tiger Roll) and Diesel D'allier the only C&D winner outside the 12yo Tiger.
.25pts ew Delta Work 7/1
.25pts ew Diesel D'allier 16/1
Bumper:
'He looks like he's even better than we thought he was' - WPM talking about a horse he only ever talks about like he is the second coming. That is all you need to know about this race. He was of course talking about Facile Vega (son of the legendary Quevega) after he smashed up the Goffs Future stars bumper at the DRF. This should be the shortest priced favourite of the week but for some reason it isn't right now. Here is the man himself giving some advice on the race
https://www.facebook.com/racingtv/videos/willie-mullins-get-stuck-in/782505819071461/
There are plenty paying 4 place which probably makes the saver on stable mate Redemption Day also a do.
3pts Facile Vega 2.76 (Betfair)
.5pts ew Redemption Day 13/2
And after all those value loser a few winning tips:
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