Another Cheltenham, another week of mayhem. For us thankfully mayhem of the good kind - doubles and yankees and tricasts to beat the band culminating in another Gold Cup Friday spent supping pints and counting our cash (hopefully). Unfortunately though its mayhem of a different kind for some many innocent people in the Ukraine being driven from their homes or dying trying to defend them. This blog is meant to be a source of fun and banter and not a place for moral highstooling or virtue signalling so all I will say is that this year I will be donating 10% of all my Cheltenham profits to the Red Cross to help provide for the basic needs of those displaced by the war and if by some chance despite listening to me you find yourself having a few winners over the week perhaps you would consider making a small donation below to help with the crisis. Thank you in advance.
The Supreme:
A race for the ages with at least 4 top class novices here. For me the top 4 in the market have very similar chances although perhaps Dysart Dynamo's running style may set him up for being collared on the way up the hill. Even though Paul Townend has chosen Dysart Patrick has always spoke glowingly of Kilcruit and there might not be that much between the 2 Closutton big guns. Kilcruit's price is purely down to people fitting a narrative to his season that is massively unfair. Beaten twice at odds on before winning a nothing race by a distance people try to argue that he hasn't trained on from last year. However only for the fact that the talented but quirky Largy Debut turned up to what was supposed to be an egg and spoon race in Cork the first day when he clearly wasn't fully wound up the narrative would be very different. People would be talking about how he won his debut by 24Ls, went on to be outstayed over 2m4f against 2 top class middle distance novices before dropping back to 2m and breaking the clock around Punchestown. That is closer to the truth for Kilcruit but the first narrative has prevailed for most of the season and is why you can now get 8/1 about last seasons top bumper horse. I also do think that Jonbon will be suited by how the race is run and should also be much closer to his stablemate. Jonbon has passed every test so far running in races not run to suit and will finally get to run in a race in an end to end gallop and what he has achieved while not as eye-catching as Constitution Hill is at least its equal. In this battle of the WPM vs Hendo, Ire vs Eng it really should pay to side with the underdogs.
Given we are backing Kilcruit here it would be moronic not to tag on a little double with his Christmas conquerer Journey For Me in Wednesday's Ballymore. When Kilcruit storms up the hill tomorrow the value of that form with the 1-2-3 of JFM/Minella Crooner/Kilcruit will be there for all to see and he should shorten a lot from his current 7/1
2pts ew Kilcruit 15/2
0.5pts ew Jonbon 11/2
0.5pts ew double Kilcruit/Journey For Me
Arkle:
Another race where I don't really believe the gap between a couple of WPM's horses are really as big as the market claims. It is hard to argue with Blue Lord being the shortest of the Irish challenge but it would also seem pretty clear that horse likely to improve most from the Irish Arkle will be Saint Sam. Unlucky to not have been the Fred Winter last year when subsequent G1 winner Jeff Kidder snuck in off 128 he came up the hill best of the rest despite shouldering 11st8lb. He pulled 5Ls clear of Riviere d'Etel on the run up the hill last year giving her 5lb and even though he has to give her a slightly bigger 7lb mare's allowance this year I know who I would want to be backing on if they turn in side by side. Riviere d'Etel has left nothing hidden having already clocked up 5 chase starts this season using all her allowances to great advantage over the early part of the season but Saint Sam was only having his second chase start in the Irish Arkle and despite going too fast in the early part of the race and making a couple of bad jumping mistakes was still coming back for more at the end going down by 4Ls from Blue Lord and Riviere d'Etel. People were too busy after the race debating the stewards enquiry to appreciate the great performance in behind and if Saint Sam can cut out the jumping errors and learn from Leopardstown I think he can turn around that form with the other Irish runners. Edwardstone has to be respected and is clearly the pick of the UK runners and probably does deserve to be favourite. He is a better chaser than a hurdler but he's going to need to be as he was always just short of top class over hurdles and you would question how highly rated he was at home given they spent last season losing big handicaps over hurdles rather than heading novice chasing straight away. I think the Irish will prevail once again and given their tight formlines it is probably worth a speculative forecast or tricast with the main protagonists from DRF. In fact the main danger to our selection could well be Haut En Coleur but having fallen early in the Irish Arkle and only having completed 1 chase ever I am happy to leave him for another day once her has learned the game a bit better.
3pts ew Saint Sam
0.25pt F/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel
0.1pt T/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel/Blue Lord
Champion Hurdle:
A race that revolves around Honeysuckle who if she is anything close to her best will win. That said it is a competitive betting without market behind her and that is where we look for a bit of value. Appreciate It was very impressive last year but hasn't been seen since but even WPM will be hard pressed to win such a competitive Championship race off no prep. Teahupoo was impressive in the Red Mills the last day but that hasn't been missed by anyone and has possibly shortened too much in both the win and w/o markets. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Epatante the forgotten horse who is still coming here off the back of winning the Christmas Hurdle and has won and been placed in this the last 2 years but the horse that catches the eye is really Adagio. He ran a great race in defeat in the Greatwood and again when tacking Goshen off a break at the start of February. He traded heavily odds on that day to beat a peak Goshen before race fitness came into play on the run to the line and that prep should have him spot on for this. In a format where 2nd is good enough this plucky loser can still deliver us the cash.
1pt ew Adagio w/o Honeysuckle 11/1
Mares Hurdle:
The mares hurdle market makes no sense to me. The market is dominated by 2 horse who have largely raced against only their own sex all season. Queens Brook seems to be priced up off the potential of a Champion bumper 3rd several years ago while people are massively over-rating the value of the Dawn Run that Tellmesomethinggirl won at last years festival. Up against them you have 2 WPM mares that have been duking it out with the best of them all season. Stormy Ireland has been better than ever since returning to Willie's yard and her win in the Relkeel was possibly a career best. Only Roksana was too good for her in this 2 years ago and I can guarantee none of the top 2 are in that class. If there is a fly in the ointment for her its her stablemate Echos In Rain. Thought of as a Champion Hurdle horse this time last year that never really panned out but getting beaten 7Ls by Honeysuckle is miles clear of anything most of these horse will ever achieve in a lesser race she can definitely make her presence felt. The longer distance might just find her out and so my main bet will be Stormy Ireland with just a saver on EIR.
2.5pts ew Stormy Ireland 5/1
0.5pts ew Echos In Rain 9/1
NH Chase:
Very straightforward here do we side with class or experience? Stattler is the class of the race and will go on to be the best of these but in this marathon race a battle hardener slugger is usually the call. Run Wild Fred is a second season novice with form over 3m5f (2nd in the Irish National) and has made steady improvement all year. Found only my old favourite Fury Road too good in a G1 over 3m at Christmas. He will relish every inch of this task and Stattler will need to dig deeper than ever to prevail. My guess is he'll be found wanting when the big questions are asked and after Run Wild Fred wins I think a lot of people might be questioning how Fury Road (an Irish G1 winner and last years stayers hurdle fav) is 16/1 in an RSA that looks a lot like a consolation race for all the English chasers not fast enough to hang onto the coat-tails of Galopin Des Champ and Bob Olinger.
1pt Run Wild Fred 7/4
1pt double Run Wild Fred/Fury Road
And now for what you've really been waiting for - the Handicap King:
2.50 - Ultima:
I'll try keep write ups short this wk. The fav Floeur could be very well handicapped but can he jump cleanly though and did the track catch him out in the Martin Pipe last yr?? I wont lay him but I wont back him as fav. Think tea clipper should be close to fav. v progressive hurdler who went close at the festivals last yr. Angle is that hes all over a chaser yet disappointed in his last two runs after excellent debut but......hello wind op my old friend! If hes a better chaser as expected & wind op is the missing piece, he has lots in hand. Small stamina query but at the price LFG. Can't not also add Ben Dundee. Two time fez chase placed horse, beat a length in what will probably be the best handicap form of the year (working out red hot so far) in paddy power. Extra places a dream here with him as he will run his race as always but some of the unexposed ones could just have too much in hand for him. Preferably Tea Clipper!
1.5 pts ew Tea Clipper
0.75 pt ew Ben Dundee
Fred winter:
Lol at willies import making handicap debut here as top timeform
rated horse, without willie improvement even factored in! If you like
willie favs, get a wheelbarrow. If you dont, move on
Other handicap bets for later in the wk where I dont think prices will
last:
Wedneaday2.50/coral cup:
1.5 pts ew Grand roi 16s - last years
fav met all sorts of trouble & has been primed again for this it
seems. as hot a race as it gets but I'll take last yrs fav with an excuse
for last yr at double the price the next yr with Gordo & Davy &
his prep just as gd. If they thought he was beat fair n square they
would have gone for other handicaps or chasing. why wait another yr......
4.50/grand annual:
3 pts ew Andy Dufresne 9s - will a horse go off bigger or shorter than you back it? I don't see how this lad is a drifter. Is this horse having his first run since November at this festival as a prep for something else? No chance. Has he got incredible back class & ran his career best run last time & still has a nice mk? Yes. Is he Gordos? Yes. Gordo also has the fav but don't be surprised if they flip flop. Buddy Rich found nothing off the bridle in his last handicap off what looked a nice mark but I'd have Andy ahead of him:
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