Cheltenham - the Olympics for horses. Yesterday we had some outstanding performances on the track and today courtesy of the clerk of the course we got to witness what the horses could do in the pool before he borrowed a leaf from Winter Olympics and treated us to a slalom race where we got a winner so classy he would have excelled no matter what comedy discipline got throw at him. Who knows what new challenges the clerk will have for us tomorrow but I would guess after today's fiasco the bet of the festival next year will be for the ground to be good to firm on day 1!
Turners Chase:
A match so good they've already chased away all the opposition. Hard to believe only 4 declared here with some easy prize money available for anyone who can complete the course, however the start billing of the top 2 makes it seem certain this won't disappoint however in what is effectively a match and priced up more or less pick em I would have a clear preference. For me this is horse equivalent of Quentin Tarantino versus Woody Allen. Bob Olinger in clearly very smart but he worries too much for his own good. He's nervous and cautious and approaches each fence like a dog with a shock collar approaching the edge of his boundaries. Galopin Des Champs on the other hand - every thing he does is slick. Its quick, its sharp and extravagant. He attacks his fences like a young Moscow Flyer and makes up so much ground in the air against a pedestrian jumper like BO that even before we start comparing engine size Bob is going to have his work cut out to keep tabs as they go around. The softer ground is not ideal as it reduces the edge of fast quick extravagant jumping and tilts things back in favour of engine size as with everything happening at a slower pace its harder to make your jumping superiority count for as much. That said it still counts as something and engine size is not a particular concern as GdC has made big steps forward this year in looking every inch a Gold Cup winner in the making and his cruising speed through his races has been up there with anything Bob has shown this season. If the ground was good or better I would be on GdC at almost any price. On heavy ground he will have to the future Gold Cup winner I believe him to be to win this but as a slight dog in this 2 horse race its a no brainer who to side with.
2pts Galopin Des Champ 11/10
Ryanair Chase:
It's hard to really look past lasts years impressive winner when looking at the outright market here but also hard to know whether getting involved at 8/11 is really a worthwhile venture. The value would seem to be in the other markets betting without and to place. Shan Blue was on course to post a career best performance before falling 3 out in the Charlie Hall but before that was well beaten twice by the 2022 Gold Cup winner at last years big festivals. One spring does not a summer make though and people seem a little over eager to dismiss his long absence or even the fact that his last run was a fall despite what went before and I'm happy to swerve at these prices. Conflated benefited from a great ride by Davy the last day and isn't as good as that bare form suggests so again is not for me at these prices. Eldorado will surely be ridden to try to place as opposed to win which may work in his favour but even still I would have a preference for the remaining 2 Irish horse ahead of him. The John Durkan at the start of the season where Allaho was made to work hard to see off Janidil and Melon. Janidil and Melon have been within a couple of lengths of each other all season and likely won't be far between them again tomorrow. B365 have an outrageous 8/1 on Melon without which for a horse who has festival form figures of 2222P seems particularly generous. I'll still happily take some of the 13/2 generally available though. Janidil is about a 9/2 shot in the same market which is also worth a small play. Unfortunately the NR takes away the ew aspect of these bets but still enough edge win only to happily play both.
1pt Melon w/o fav 8/1
1pt Janidil w/o fav 9/2
World Hurdle:
A bit of a mess of a race but there is probably not a whole lot between the top 2 in the market based on the Leopardstown running. A bit too much has been made of the lead poached at the start that day and on his day I would have Klassical Dream at least the match of Flooring Porter. Both however have their quirks and neither looks overly appealing at the current prices. Champ is probably a horse whose day in the sun has already passed him by without him realizing it and his RSA win will likely be the highlight of a career that promised so much but ultimately was a big disappointment to all involved. Royal Kahala's price at 5/1 is more bizarre than the most obscure Monty Python sketch with people seeming latching on to the fact that she likes soft ground and dismissing the fact that she would hardly have been 5/1 if she had contested the Mares Hurdle rather than a Championship race. Outside of mares only races she won a Galmoy that completely fell apart by 1.75Ls from a horse that is 80/1 reopposing today. I hope whatever simpleton is piling into the soft ground double of Royal Kahala and Royal Pagaille at these prices hasn't got their heating money on it or they'll be hibernating in cardboard boxes until the other side of Aintree. Thyme Hill looks the real class of the field here and the season after being an unlucky 4th in the Albert Bartlett behind Monkfish he went toe to toe with a peak Paisley Park before missing Cheltenham with an injury and picking up his G1 in Aintree a few weeks later instead. Things didn't go to plan in France at the start of the season before a fine performance in the Long Walk and should improve past Champ from there. A slightly curious entry is Song for Someone who was just off top class over 2m. He ran Buzz to 3Ls over 2m4f and possibly will improve for the step up in trip here. Of those at the bottom of the tissue he is definitely the one with the scope to spring a surprise.
1.5pts ew Thyme Hill 9/2
0.5pts ew Song For Someone 40/1
Dawn Run:
The favourite here could be anything but 2/1 off 1 run in Clonmel in a race when in the past experience has been made to count seems ambitious. No less than Epatante was 6th in this when lining up on just her 3rd start. Brandy Love was favourite for a while seemingly by default despite having run like a dog chasing a butterfly the last day on the run in and looking back to her bumpers she didn't find a whole lot when challenged by Party Central and Grangee at the DRF last year. You could make a reasonable case for Grangee who fell before really getting to put down a challenge the last day but had run well in an open G1 the time before but of all the Mullins horses it really looks like there is one being massively overlooked. Statuaire is a G1 winner and granted it was a messy G1 that turned into a bit of a sprint she still had a lot of useful horses in behind that day. Given the question marks around so many of these 20/1 in a mares only race for a Royal Bond winner seems fine to me.
0.5pts ew Statuaire 22/1
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