GSI

 Back down to earth with a bang today but the darkest hour is always before the dawn and our tough Thursday have (usually) been a precursor for a phoenix like revival on Gold Cup Friday. A trappy card where I actually seem to find myself on a lot of long priced horses so hopefully at least one of the clicks and we can drown the shamrock in style tomorrow.

Triumph Hurdle:

A race that looks to be at Willie's mercy and a 1-2-3-4 here would not be a major surprise. The market largely has the front of the market right now with Lossiemouth shortening and she is a deserved favourite despite being beaten the last day when things went very wrong for her. Although ability wise there is very little between the front 3 as judged by a formline through Nusret I do have a preference for Lossie/Gala who've been in a proper race. Blood Diamond has been impressive but never come under pressure and with novicey jumping it could be a concern when he finally gets eyeballed 2 from home. At the prices I have a slight preference for Gala Marceau and if you can get a bookie to lay you a bet e/w you're getting a free shot at nothing here. Of the rest there is one slightly interesting newcomer just off the boat from France. Jipcot won a valuable listed race in Pau the last time out and as we all known from punting winning big money is never made easy. To put in perspective Jipcot has racked up £44k in winnings from winning her maiden and listed race in France whereas Blood Destiny has made just £16k from winning 2 egg and spoon races like a champ. He probably isn't good enough to challenge the Mullins brigade but he's an unknown with significant upside potential so at 100/1 you probably should have a little saver just in case.

1pt ew Gala Marceau 9/2

0.2pts ew Jipcot 100/1

County Hurdle:

I don't want to step on the Handicapper King's territory too much here but I know I'll get abuse if i'm celebrating a 66/1 winner tomorrow when everyone else is sitting with their heads in the hands so just to flag a horse I've always thought a lot of who has dropped back to a very winnable mark. Glory and Fortune won the Betfair Hurdle last year off 143 before going on to finish 8Ls 4th in the Champion Hurdle. Things didn't go to plan with his chasing career although he looked likely to put it up to Banbridge at Cheltenham in November before unseating 2 out (trading 11/5 at the time). He bombed out in the Betfair hurdle this time around on firm ground which got him a nice 4lb drop to 144 and he could be very competitive off his revised mark. At 66s I can't not get involved.

Albert Bartlett:

An incredibly deep renewal of the race with a lot of quality on display. Corbett's Cross will likely be the best of these horses in time but a slog like this might just be coming a little too soon in his career. He looked very good winning a G2 over 2m the last day and I was hoping to back him at a big price in the Supreme but at a short price here I can probably pass. Three Card Brag still has to prove his stamina and even though he looks like a horse that will stay 3m on soft in this race is going to take some getting and so that is why I'm happy to side with the rock solid form from Monty's Stars G3 win in Clonmel. Hiddenvalley Lake was only just second to his stable mate giving him 6lbs in a race where the front 3 pulled a mile clear on the run in. Before that HVL had well beaten Martin Pipe favourite Cool Survivor and the reopposing Letsbeclearaboutit in a G3 in Cork. His form is rock solid but the 6lb pull at the weights might not just be enough to turn the tables on his fast improving stable mate. The fact that Monty's Star is twice the price on the back of jockey bookings swings me in his favour but I will be covering both and will also look to land another reverse forecast here with such a tight line of form between them.

1pt ew Montys Star 16/1

0.5pt ew Hiddenvalley Lake 8/1

0.25pts reverse forecast

 

Gold Cup:

For once I don't really have a strong opinion here against the market. I backed A Plus Tard at 9s after there was a valid excuse for the Haydock flop. Not seeing him since is a small concern but he still would have been my tip until a few days ago but having halved in price now I'm not sure I would advise going again. Galopin des Champ is a worthy favourite and should stay. At 7/4 I'll likely have a small interest bet on him to cover my antepost position. Of the rest Noble Yeats could be the one to stay on through the mud up the hill best and if you can get 12/1 ew with 4 places that is a very solid bet. 

Hunters Chase:

Vaucelet hasn't been overly impressive since being beaten by Billaway at Punchestown last season and could be a weak enough favourite here. Young up and comer Rocky's Howya could make the step up here and worth a small interest at 12/1

0.5pts ew Rocky's Howya 12/1

Mare's Chase:

After 26 of the 28 races our festival all comes down to this - the decider as to whether we win or the bookies win for the week. I never expected that my bet of the week could possibly come in the Mares Chase but then the world has a way of surprising us these days. In a world where we are bombarded 24/7 with every different type of information and opinions the key to success in any decision making is how you filter and process that information. You need to cut through the noise and latch onto the small rare nuggets of important material that wash over everyone else in a haze of hype, clickbait and controversial soundbytes. And so here we are ready to GSI to a big price street fighting mare against the more flashy tarts at the top of the market . Riviere D'etel cut her teeth fighting it out with the boys in her novice season and lost nothing in defeat to Ferny Hollow and Blue Lord. She came 5th in the Arkle well clear of the likes of Magic Daze (10/1 here) and Haut En Colour (5th in the Plate today) despite showing a tendency to jump right. That tendency has increased this season and by the time she flopped at Carlisle she was holding her head to the right and twisting mid jump again to the right. Zoolander tendencies like that are costly at Cheltenham (as the favourite Allergory de Vassy will likely find out). However somewhere about 2 hours into the PP Cheltenham preview night when everyone else had lost interest, or was already 6 pints deep, Ruby Walsh pipes up with a little comment about Gordon - apparently her carriage and twisting were actually a result of an issue with her back. This was the golden nugget a prospector like me could only dream of! This has since been treated and should allow her to jump straight and pain free. So we have one of last years top novices (2nd fav to Edwardstone for that Arkle) making a return from something which was having a detrimental effect on her performances since at least the 2022 DRF and she is getting priced as the rag of the field who will be lucky to get around. Just let that sink in. I could go on and make straw man arguements for why the other horses can't win. Why AdV is a Zoolander disaster waiting to happen, or why Magic Daze won't stay but do I really need to. We have one of last year's top novices dropping down to race against her own sex where her main opposition are still in their novice seasons. We are getting 20/1 that she can beat a couple of low 150's mares who've had it all their own way so far and never had to go to the well and find the grit that Rd'E found when fighting back against Blue Lord after he swerved across her or eyeballing Ferny Hollow and never flinching. The only question I've been asking myself the last few day is how much is too much to put on this horse. This is not a God given certainty as although we know she acts on soft it is hard to know from her 2 runs over 2m4f - once well beaten by the machine that is Galopin des Champ and once in Carlisle when she wasn't right - whether or not she will be seen to her best over this trip. That one concern over staying the trip is really the only reason this is not the biggest bet of my life given the price. That said I wouldn't really have had many arguments if she was priced up here at 7/2-4/1 by the bookies so I will be watching this one from behind the couch. God speed.

4pts e/w Riviere d'Etel

And now after that rant...the handicaps:

Long wk so short and sweet explanations

County Hurdle

Gin coco is rock solid ew at 10s. 2nd to a champ hurdle level horse in GW in autumn. 4lb rise might be lenient and kept for this since. 

Pinkerton - lightly raced irish novice in uk hcap - hello! Market might also take christmas run at face value when it shouldnt be

1pt ew Gin coco 10s

1 pt ew pinkerton 28s

Martin Pipe

Sa fureur chinned the selection Buddy One on thier last start off level weights. SF was a big punt into favouritism in the coral but met enough trouble to probably excuse the poor run. Either way, the market loved SF so im happy to follow that line of form with Buddy One at a big price. SF may not have been at full tilt the last day in prep for Chelt but Buddy one may not have been either. Gilligan has won at the fez before and gone agonisingly close in 2 x big DRF hcaps in recent years along with his usual Galway fez winners

1 pt ew Buddy One 33s

Something to Appreciate

 An incredible performance today by the Handicap King nailing 2 big priced winners. Leaves us comfortably in the black at the half way point and gives us a bit of firepower over the next 2 days for some of my bigger fancies.

Turners Chase:

I was sweet on Appreciate It for this from a long way out. People were quick to dismiss him as a busted flush after Leopardstown but after Tuesday it's clear there was no disgrace in not being able to live with El Fabiolo off a fast pace. His chase victories prior to that were effortless and he looks a natural jumper. It's hard to forget how he smashed up the Supreme 2 years ago and even off a layoff was made 5/1 second fav for the Champion Hurdle last year. Off a steadier pace he can use the turn of foot to good effect here at the death. Banbridge was flattered the last day as he was running in a different race to Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo who had pulled a distance clear of him before the savage pace took its toll in the final furlong. He was well beaten the time before that at Fairyhouse and hard to make any more than place claims for him. The only real danger to AI is Mighty Potter who has looked at beast at times and is considered by Elliot to be his Gold Cup horse for next season but at a shade of odds on there are a few holes to pick at and he looks too short to me. Aside from a few questionable jumps in each of his chase races to date a big concern for me would be that he will boil over pre-race. Last year they had a hood on him in the parade ring to try to keep him calm around such a big crowd and he was very well behaved in all that was caught on camera but I was struck by a comment from Lydia Hislop on one of the Cheltenham preview shows that getting him the parade ring to the starting post was like trying to wrestle a drunk up the stairs of Coppers at 4am. He burst through a rail and had to be looked over by the vet at the starting line before being allowed to start. He ran like a drunk too that day and was already out of contention by the time he fell. He's going to have to handle the roar of the crowd again this year to have a chance here and even after that he'll need to be every bit as good as Elliott hopes he is to beat Appreciate It.

2.5pts ew Appreciate It 7/2

Ryanair Chase:

A race that completely revolves around one horse and whether on not he will 'bounce'. If Shiskin can reproduce close to what he did at Ascot the last day this will be no contest. Shiskin at his best is close to unstoppable but he has had a tough year and there were doubts as to whether he could come back at all. I would worry this race has come too soon after his comeback run and still think there is enough doubt about which Shishkin turns up to pass on backing what is clearly the best horse in the race and look for a safer e/w alternative. For me that is almost always Fury Road but solid and all as he undoubtedly is it's hard to think that even if Shishkin flops he won't manage to still find something to beat him and although I'm a patient man even with some of the most stubborn 'unlucky' losers I think I've finally learned my lesson and moved on, on this one at least. Of the rest Blue Lord looks the be the one with enough potential to pick up the pieces if anything happens to the favourite here. His defeat at the hands of Gentleman De Mee was probably partly a result of how fast he ran at Christmas and with a better recovery on the run into this will hopefully see him scale those heights again. Willie is flying, Townend is flying, everything seems in place for us to at least get our money back and give ourselves the best chance of a scoop if Shishkin flops.

1.5pts ew Blue Lord 6/1

Stayer's Hurdle:

The roll of honour for the Stayer's Hurdle in my mind doesn't have a horse on it for the last 2 years, it has a jockey. Danny Mullins and pickpocketed 2 Stayer's crowns with fantastic horsemanship the last 2 years in relatively weak contests. Well lightening doesn't strike three times or at least I hope it doesn't because I've concentrated on backing the two G1 horses in a field of mainly G2 types. This race revolves around the Hatton's Grace Hurdle where Honeysuckle finally lost her unbeaten record. Teahupoo edged out Klassical Dream that day and that looks rock solid form. Things have all gone right for Teahupoo since then stepping up in trip to win the Galmoy by 15Ls and as a horse that loves a bit of give in the ground everything is in his favour tomorrow. Klassical Dream has had a bumpier path here and hasn't raced since with a few niggly problems. That said if anyone can have him peak for this day it is Willie. I think Teahupoo will still edge it but both should be covered. Blazing Khal is the Andy Reid of this year's Stayers as the less he raced the better he became in peoples minds and although he has potential he is a horrible price to win and would need a big step up to do so. It probably seems extreme to tip 3 horses in the one race but I can't not also have a bet on Dashel Drasher to place. He never wins but consistently comes 2nd to very good horses in particular when splitting Noble Yeats and Ahoy Senor at Aintree in December.

1.5pts Teahupoo win

0.5pts Klassical Dream win

.25pts reverse forecast

0.5pts Dashel Drasher to place

Mares Hurdle:

I have to be brief due to other commitments but the fav looks short under a penalty. Halka De Talbert gets 5lb and was close to Ashroe Diamond in a muddling race at Navan the last day. A truer run race will suit her and can take a big step forward here. Another one flying under the radar a little is Nikini who was beaten a length by Magical Zoe the last day giving her 4lbs. Off level weights here she is nearly 3 times the price. Patrick is quietly confident on this one and will surely outrun her odds.

1pt ew Halka Du Talbert 12/1

1pt ew Nikini 25/1

And now what you're really here for:

Pertemps

Im all over Maxxum at bigger prices so apologies but its a no bet here for me at the current prices. If you just want a token selection for the craic and dont care about price - well youve guessed it - Maxxum!

4:10 - The whatever they call it now handicap

Emmet probably wins -but no one else on planet earth can tell you what price he should be bar him and Paul Byrne. So i cant touch it! One horse who i will happily back is Shak'em up arry. I know this blog has lots of Arry Redknapp fans so should be a popular winner! Was all the rage over CD in a handicap on NYD when it seems he was played too soon and paid the price. Hopefully they can hold onto him a little longer here. Think the market takes that run on face value which it shouldn't. One thing to note here for this race - in recent years on the track and start point they use for this race, its a huge disadvantage to be held up. The very shrewd Rory Delargy highlighted it a few years back. Things get very narrow at times so hopefully Luca Morgan will have him more towards the front than the back as would be expected based off the timeform pace map. 

1 pt ew Shakem up 'arry

5:30 Kim Muir

Market found the obvious Irish cowboy jobs very early here and i dont see an angle there. I think theres two though with two UK runners. Ben Pauling is having the season of his life which is helping him to shed the nickname Ben Appauling. Anightinlambourn is worth a bet here at 18s +. Won a handicap over CD at the november meeting that is working out very well and has been put away since. That was on quick ground but has soft ground form in the past. Still a possible improver just like the Irish lurkers but at 2x or 3x the price. 

Also want to be with Venetia's Fontaine Collonges in a race where she has had a lot of big priced horses go close or win. Similar to Maskada yesterday in that he was fav for the big Grand National trial at Haydock but theres a good chance you can ignore the run because a very slow start left her much further off the pace than normal. Obviously want her to break like a greyhound today but at the price im willing to hope she can channel her inner Income Freight and bound out!

1 pt ew Anightinlambourn 18s+

1 pt ew Fontaine Collonges 20s +

All the Thyme's in the world

 What an amazing day of racing. Top class races and performances and a couple of fairytales to boot. Most importantly though we have all the clues we need to find tomorrow's winners after todays novice races gave us a better idea of the balance of power between the Irish and their hosts.

Ballymore:

So I said yesterday that I didn't think there was that much between all the Irish novices which was largely borne out by the finish of the Supreme. Unfortunately I then followed that up by assuming if there was no stand out horse in Ireland the gap between the Irish novices and the UK novices is probably smaller than was thought.... Ireland had 9 of 15 runners in the Supreme and saddled the first 8 home so the less said about that call the better! Given the Irish dominance in the Supreme, along with all 3 of Nicholls horses running poorly and drifting badly, it is very hard to make the case I had intended to make for Hermes Allen. This is no longer the tallest dwarf competition he is in and we have to go straight to the Irish contingent in search of the winner. Good Land for the same connections as Marine Nationale was backed this afternoon after the Supreme but looks a short price based on winning a below average Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February. Impaire Est Passe was the toast of the preview circuit and if the hype is to be believed he has the acceleration of a Ferrari and the stamina combined with the stamina of a National winner. He'd eat Constitution Hill for breakfast and put Red Rum to the sword in the afternoon. But at this stage it's hype - that's all it is. The one horse whose chances were significantly improved after today is an old favourite of mine - Champ Kiely. He started the season beating last years Boodles winner Brazil before pulling too hard and coming third behind Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond where he looked to be the best horse in the race. He then went on to win well at Naas when heavily backed on the day in what is usually a good trial for this race. I subsequently flip flopped on his chances a bit with Irish Point disappointing, Marine National not running and Grangeclare West clearly not the horse he used to be. However today's Supreme puts a very different complexion on it. He probably is good enough to be there or there abouts for a Supreme and at a huge price has to be backed tomorrow.

2.5pts ew Champ Kiely 8/1

Brown advisory Chase:

Gerri Colombe is the type of horse I almost always find myself backing - he only every does just enough but keeps on winning without tipping his hand at his true ability. The reason I usually back those horses though is that they are usually over priced. Gerri is priced as if he's been beating G1 horses all season and laughing at them which is clearly not the case and he really looks a bad favourite in a solid enough renewal of the race. Sir Gerhard is undoubtedly the classiest in the field but 1 chase start and no races beyond 2m5f would make me reluctant to get heavily involved being thrown into the deep end here. The Real Whacker could be the description of the trainer as much as the horse - the idea that they were considering the Gold Cup after 2 chase starts and off the career best form of beating the massively overrated Monmiral over 2m4f shows he hasn't a clue what he is doing and that lack of competence is enough for me to instantly discount him here. Which only really leaves us with Thyme Hill of the ones at the front of the market. He has never had any luck at the festival running into a stacked field in the Albert Bartlett where he finished a length and a half off Monkfish before being undone by a great ride from Danny Mullins to be only just denied in the Stayers Hurdle last year. He goes well at Cheltenham he will stay all day and we just have to hope his jumping has sharpened up a little. The market seems to hate him having drifted from 5s to 10s in the last few day which is my main concern. I have already backed him at 5s and will be tentatively going in again at 10s hoping that if there is a problem he just gets pulled. Of the rest it is probably worth keeping an eye on the place price of Adamantly Chosen who got supplemented here for the only race at the festival they hadn't entered him for. He was second behind Gerri Colombe at Limerick ahead of Kilcruit before finishing best of the rest (ahead of Gailliard du Mesnil) behind Mighty Potter the last day. Anything around the 4/1 for a place is a great little bet.

1pt ew Thyme Hill 10/1

1pt place Adamantly Chosen 4/1

Champion Chase:

Probably the championship race I have the weakest opinion on. Enurgumene has the best form in his second to Shiskin at Ascot last season but hasn't scaled those heights since. On the basis of the race the last day Edwardstone just about has his measure these days and will have a few pennies on him for shouting value but this one won't be making or breaking the week for me.

0.5pts Edwardstone 6/4

Cross Country:

A race the revolves around Gordon's 2 big guns having their Grand National prep. Hard to think the market doesn't have them the wrong way around based off the believe that course form is everything. Galvin was second favourite for the Gold Cup this time last year and will be giving Delta Work 7lbs when they get to Aintree. Backing him at level weights as the underdog with Davy seemingly having picked him over Delta Work seems the way to go for me here.

2pts Galvin 5/2

Bumper:

I haven't looked much at this race but I did have one of these horses in my tracker - Loughglynn. He won a competitive bumper at Naas where the first 2 pulled well clear of the rest and the second horse Firefox then went on to win the next day in Navan by an impressive 10Ls. He was entered to run in Naas a couple of weeks ago on trials day but they pulled him there to save him for this so even though he is down the pecking order I would think he is no lost cause and can hopefully run well at a big price.

0.5pts ew Loughglynn 25/1

Coral cup

The Langer Dan handicap mark lolarama rolls around to Cheltenham for a third year running and we will be buying a ticket to the show! Brought down at the first in the Martin Pipe last year, he more than made up for that at Aintree with himself & the well handicapped Fils Doudairies pulling 8l clear. Hes now somehow only 4lb higher which isnt enough to halt him i think. Boyles are 6 places at all times in the handicaps so 10s ew with them is ideal but any 10s ew is good.

Cant resist a small ew play on Grand Roi in this race for the 3rd year running! To make the case - read back the last two years ;)

2 pts ew Langer Dan 10s

0.25 pts ew Grand Roi 50s

Grand Annual

Two darts here against the JP favs. Maskada for Henry was fav in the hot DRF handicap and hit 6/4 IR before a bad mistake 2 out finished him off. Will have to jump better than of late at a quicker speed than of late, but at 22s + im happy to take my chance. Only his fourth run for Henry so angle for more improvement.

Thyme White came to our attention 12 months ago when Paul Nicholls said he was a 160 horse in waiting. The Wed monsoon meant he didnt run so we return to the well again. Nicholls is adamant he needs to be fresh so has been off since November this time. Following trainer opinion can be a dangerous game but Nicholls is no fool so happy to follow him in. Again, the more places the better at what is now a palatable price of 16s

0.5 pts ew Maskada 22s+

0.5 pts ew Thyme White 16s

Honey for the money

 Here we are back again for Cheltenham no.14 on the blog. Hopefully over the next few days we'll have lots of winners some great shouting value and at least a handful of opinions more controversial than BBC sports presenter. I often get asked why, during the busiest week of the punting year, I take the time to write out my tips and thoughts to try to help a bunch of people I for the most part haven't met take some money off the bookies for no personal reward myself. I have usually tried to explain that it is largely a selfish endevour. That the writing itself is a means of sharpening my thought processes and refining my opinions. I finally found a much better way of explaining it at the weekend on the Farnam St blog below that is well worth a read. It is not a betting blog but a blog for helping you improve how you think and problem solve and I can guarantee it has saved us from plenty of avoidable losers down the years.

https://fs.blog/why-write/

In brief writing is the process by which you realize that you do not understand what you are talking about. Importantly, writing is also the process by which you figure it out. So hopefully at this point I've figured out all i need to know for day one of battle!

Supreme:

A race that's priced up as if the Irish novices are clearly better than their British counterparts but I wouldn't be so sure about that. Seems like there is not a whole lot between the 3 at the top of the market. Facile Vega had a comfortable enough win over Il Etait Temp at Christmas but blew up in the race he won at the DRF which looked at least the equal of Facile's Christmas performance. Facile is priced up on reputation and although the stable seem to think there are no ill effects from his February blow out it is hard to chance him on reputation alone. Based on a line through Ashroe Diamond  Marine Nationale would be a very similar level to Il Etait Temps which is a very solid horse but nothing particularly special. Given there is no standout in the Irish contingent it's hard to be so certain they are really that far ahead of what we've seen in England this winter. Tahmuras galloped all over the opposition in the Tolworth the last day and would have been a much more impressive winner but for kicking through the last 2 hurdles. Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win this race and thinks he has a stayer in the mould of Noland or Al Ferof on his hands here. He has become a lot more selective about what horse he sends to Cheltenham over the last few years and he clearly thinks he has an above average group of novices on his hands this year. Given that a cheeky treble of Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay is a must at small stakes to give us an interest through the week as there will likely be a big repricing of the Ballymore should Nicholls get off the mark with Tahmuras. The market has been relatively quick to forgive Facile Vega bombing out the last day but they have been nowhere near as understanding of Rare Edition failing to get home over 2m4f in a G2 the last day, however before that he had kicked the subsequent Dovecote winner out of his way in winning at Kempton on Stephens Day in a fast time and it would not be a surprise to see him get involved here at a big price if bouncing back to form.

1.5pts ew Tahmuras 11/1

.75pts ew Rare Edition 28/1

.25pts ew Treble: Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay

Arkle:

A cracking race with 3 horses that would be worthy winners in an average year. Jonbon looked to have the race at his mercy after 2 faultless performances before Christmas but it all changed when El Fabiolo won one of the races of the season in the Irish Arkle where they went a savage pace set by Dysart Dynamo where everyone broke bar him. He was slowing down at the end but still put 10Ls into some good opposition who ended up getting swallowed up by Banbridge at the end as they dropped anchor. The performance was even more impressive than it appeared at first glance as if you go back and look at the tape you can see Daryl Jacobs took the Gringo Trail along the inside rail coming down the back running on the worse ground as all the local jockeys pulled their horses wider and went down the centre of the course. I think it actually put a doubt in Townends mind about where the best ground was after seeing Jacob finish with so much horse. So much so that just afterwards in the Gold Cup he took Galopin Des Champ down the inside rail on the first circuit before realising he was right the first time and going down the centre on the second circuit. Dysart Dynamo will likely go hard in front again and with a furlong less to run he will likely come closer this time around but i would still expect him to be swallowed up by the 2 big guns up the hill and would expect El Fabiolo to get revenge for his narrow defeat to Jonbon at Aintree last year.

1pt El Fabiolo 11/8

Champion Hurdle:

A race to savour rather than punt on. Constitution Hill wins, the only question is how far but at 1/3 that's hardly great insight. He could be one of the all time greats in the making. Enjoy.

Mares Hurdle:

And so move on to another great, all be it one in decline. The whole build up to this race has been framed by the narrative of just how much in decline Honeysuckle is and just how much potential there is in the field behind her looking to deny her the fairytale ending. Lets start with the 'potential' Echos in Rain is a very talented horse but a pure 2 miler - just look at her run in this race last year behind a few of these horse where on soft ground she fade out of contention from the last. That was probably why Townend chose the mercurial Brandy Love. Now she undoubtely has many talents but unfortunately running in a straight line isn't one of them. Going left handed you would think will be less of a problem for her except that on softer ground you really need to come up the stands rail at Cheltenham to find the better ground - best of luck to Paul with that as she is more likely to take off for an extra circuit than she is to not try and head for the Best Mate enclosure rather than the winning post. Love Envoi is still improving but at the minute is nothing more than a high class handicapper and Marie's Rock is the horse we saw winning a much poorer renewal last year but is now favourite for the best mares hurdle ever run. And so that all brings us back to Honeysuckle. A lot of people who could not tell you what a pound means have very confidently been stating that she is clearly 14lbs worse than she was 2 years. Exactly 14lbs no more no less and repeated with certainty ad naseum. Faced with the blind certainty of ignorance lets look a little closer because she clearly hasn't been at her best this season but how far has she fallen? On her reappearance she wasn't quite strong enough at the death to see off a previous stayers hurdle winner and a future stayers hurdle winner going down by less than 3Ls to Teahupoo and Klassical Dream and still miles clear of the rest. Then she went to the Irish Champion hurdle and was beaten 4Ls by State Man the only horse given a squeak to beat the beast that is Constitution hill in the Champion. Hardly the form of a horse than has given up and its hard to think that if Vauban or Teahupoo lined up here they would not be considerable shorter against this field. In the end the answer to this race come from Tennyson and not the preview night echo chamber. 

Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'

We are not now that strength which in old days

Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;

One equal temper of heroic hearts,

Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will

To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Victory tomorrow would be poetic end to a great career and although there is no room for sentimentality in winning punting for once it is the cynics and the naysayers that hold sway on the masses and so it will be an extra sweet victory to win in such a fashion. It would also be remiss to forget Epatante - the other faded royalty in the field. There is life in here yet and at bigger prices she might make it a clean sweep for the older generation.

2pts win Honeysuckle 4.8

2pts place Honeysuckle 1.96

1pt place Epatante 2.86

 

NH Chase:

Getting late so I'll keep it brief. Galliard du Mesnil is the best horse and the only one proven to stay the distance. He should win and win comfortably.

2pts win Galliard du Mesnil Evns 

And now the thoughts of the Handicap King:

Boodles

Usual circus of who has managed to hide the most from the handicapper without getting a ban that is for some reason only given to certain kitchen fitters!!! Lots of cases to be made but i thought Sundial has a bigger upside than a few ahead of him in the market - the best of whom we may have seen already (top 3 excluded). Last year's winning trainer has done a stellar job of not allowing this lad max it out yet. Icing on the cake being his tongue tie taken off on handicap debut and replaced surprisingly today! Theres also an angle for more in hand on his decent flat runs with Coolmore. Timeform has forecasted an 'extreme' pace (which is very rare) so id hope to see him buried early in what should be anything but a speed test on that ground with that gallop. Has stamina from the flat which will hopefully propel him over the top late on to allow us all buy a new kitchen....

1 pt ew Sundial 14s +

Ultima

Again, loads of cases to be made, but two i think that are underrated atm in the market are Threeunderthrufive and The Goffer.

TUTF didnt get home but travelled very well beyond the 3m mark in the classic over 3m5 and this trip could be his optimum. Secondly, cant have a Gordo - Davy unexposed chaser at 16s + so have to nibble that too. Won a red hot handicap the last day and Davy has been and will be selective about his rides since his recent return. Chose to take the ride at DRF and hopefully will be worth his time and effort today too. Small stakes stuff though

0.5 ew Threeunderthrufive

0.5 ew The Goffer