An incredible performance today by the Handicap King nailing 2 big priced winners. Leaves us comfortably in the black at the half way point and gives us a bit of firepower over the next 2 days for some of my bigger fancies.
Turners Chase:
I was sweet on Appreciate It for this from a long way out. People were quick to dismiss him as a busted flush after Leopardstown but after Tuesday it's clear there was no disgrace in not being able to live with El Fabiolo off a fast pace. His chase victories prior to that were effortless and he looks a natural jumper. It's hard to forget how he smashed up the Supreme 2 years ago and even off a layoff was made 5/1 second fav for the Champion Hurdle last year. Off a steadier pace he can use the turn of foot to good effect here at the death. Banbridge was flattered the last day as he was running in a different race to Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo who had pulled a distance clear of him before the savage pace took its toll in the final furlong. He was well beaten the time before that at Fairyhouse and hard to make any more than place claims for him. The only real danger to AI is Mighty Potter who has looked at beast at times and is considered by Elliot to be his Gold Cup horse for next season but at a shade of odds on there are a few holes to pick at and he looks too short to me. Aside from a few questionable jumps in each of his chase races to date a big concern for me would be that he will boil over pre-race. Last year they had a hood on him in the parade ring to try to keep him calm around such a big crowd and he was very well behaved in all that was caught on camera but I was struck by a comment from Lydia Hislop on one of the Cheltenham preview shows that getting him the parade ring to the starting post was like trying to wrestle a drunk up the stairs of Coppers at 4am. He burst through a rail and had to be looked over by the vet at the starting line before being allowed to start. He ran like a drunk too that day and was already out of contention by the time he fell. He's going to have to handle the roar of the crowd again this year to have a chance here and even after that he'll need to be every bit as good as Elliott hopes he is to beat Appreciate It.
2.5pts ew Appreciate It 7/2
Ryanair Chase:
A race that completely revolves around one horse and whether on not he will 'bounce'. If Shiskin can reproduce close to what he did at Ascot the last day this will be no contest. Shiskin at his best is close to unstoppable but he has had a tough year and there were doubts as to whether he could come back at all. I would worry this race has come too soon after his comeback run and still think there is enough doubt about which Shishkin turns up to pass on backing what is clearly the best horse in the race and look for a safer e/w alternative. For me that is almost always Fury Road but solid and all as he undoubtedly is it's hard to think that even if Shishkin flops he won't manage to still find something to beat him and although I'm a patient man even with some of the most stubborn 'unlucky' losers I think I've finally learned my lesson and moved on, on this one at least. Of the rest Blue Lord looks the be the one with enough potential to pick up the pieces if anything happens to the favourite here. His defeat at the hands of Gentleman De Mee was probably partly a result of how fast he ran at Christmas and with a better recovery on the run into this will hopefully see him scale those heights again. Willie is flying, Townend is flying, everything seems in place for us to at least get our money back and give ourselves the best chance of a scoop if Shishkin flops.
1.5pts ew Blue Lord 6/1
Stayer's Hurdle:
The roll of honour for the Stayer's Hurdle in my mind doesn't have a horse on it for the last 2 years, it has a jockey. Danny Mullins and pickpocketed 2 Stayer's crowns with fantastic horsemanship the last 2 years in relatively weak contests. Well lightening doesn't strike three times or at least I hope it doesn't because I've concentrated on backing the two G1 horses in a field of mainly G2 types. This race revolves around the Hatton's Grace Hurdle where Honeysuckle finally lost her unbeaten record. Teahupoo edged out Klassical Dream that day and that looks rock solid form. Things have all gone right for Teahupoo since then stepping up in trip to win the Galmoy by 15Ls and as a horse that loves a bit of give in the ground everything is in his favour tomorrow. Klassical Dream has had a bumpier path here and hasn't raced since with a few niggly problems. That said if anyone can have him peak for this day it is Willie. I think Teahupoo will still edge it but both should be covered. Blazing Khal is the Andy Reid of this year's Stayers as the less he raced the better he became in peoples minds and although he has potential he is a horrible price to win and would need a big step up to do so. It probably seems extreme to tip 3 horses in the one race but I can't not also have a bet on Dashel Drasher to place. He never wins but consistently comes 2nd to very good horses in particular when splitting Noble Yeats and Ahoy Senor at Aintree in December.
1.5pts Teahupoo win
0.5pts Klassical Dream win
.25pts reverse forecast
0.5pts Dashel Drasher to place
Mares Hurdle:
I have to be brief due to other commitments but the fav looks short under a penalty. Halka De Talbert gets 5lb and was close to Ashroe Diamond in a muddling race at Navan the last day. A truer run race will suit her and can take a big step forward here. Another one flying under the radar a little is Nikini who was beaten a length by Magical Zoe the last day giving her 4lbs. Off level weights here she is nearly 3 times the price. Patrick is quietly confident on this one and will surely outrun her odds.
1pt ew Halka Du Talbert 12/1
1pt ew Nikini 25/1
And now what you're really here for:
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