What an amazing day of racing. Top class races and performances and a couple of fairytales to boot. Most importantly though we have all the clues we need to find tomorrow's winners after todays novice races gave us a better idea of the balance of power between the Irish and their hosts.
Ballymore:
So I said yesterday that I didn't think there was that much between all the Irish novices which was largely borne out by the finish of the Supreme. Unfortunately I then followed that up by assuming if there was no stand out horse in Ireland the gap between the Irish novices and the UK novices is probably smaller than was thought.... Ireland had 9 of 15 runners in the Supreme and saddled the first 8 home so the less said about that call the better! Given the Irish dominance in the Supreme, along with all 3 of Nicholls horses running poorly and drifting badly, it is very hard to make the case I had intended to make for Hermes Allen. This is no longer the tallest dwarf competition he is in and we have to go straight to the Irish contingent in search of the winner. Good Land for the same connections as Marine Nationale was backed this afternoon after the Supreme but looks a short price based on winning a below average Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February. Impaire Est Passe was the toast of the preview circuit and if the hype is to be believed he has the acceleration of a Ferrari and the stamina combined with the stamina of a National winner. He'd eat Constitution Hill for breakfast and put Red Rum to the sword in the afternoon. But at this stage it's hype - that's all it is. The one horse whose chances were significantly improved after today is an old favourite of mine - Champ Kiely. He started the season beating last years Boodles winner Brazil before pulling too hard and coming third behind Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond where he looked to be the best horse in the race. He then went on to win well at Naas when heavily backed on the day in what is usually a good trial for this race. I subsequently flip flopped on his chances a bit with Irish Point disappointing, Marine National not running and Grangeclare West clearly not the horse he used to be. However today's Supreme puts a very different complexion on it. He probably is good enough to be there or there abouts for a Supreme and at a huge price has to be backed tomorrow.
2.5pts ew Champ Kiely 8/1
Brown advisory Chase:
Gerri Colombe is the type of horse I almost always find myself backing - he only every does just enough but keeps on winning without tipping his hand at his true ability. The reason I usually back those horses though is that they are usually over priced. Gerri is priced as if he's been beating G1 horses all season and laughing at them which is clearly not the case and he really looks a bad favourite in a solid enough renewal of the race. Sir Gerhard is undoubtedly the classiest in the field but 1 chase start and no races beyond 2m5f would make me reluctant to get heavily involved being thrown into the deep end here. The Real Whacker could be the description of the trainer as much as the horse - the idea that they were considering the Gold Cup after 2 chase starts and off the career best form of beating the massively overrated Monmiral over 2m4f shows he hasn't a clue what he is doing and that lack of competence is enough for me to instantly discount him here. Which only really leaves us with Thyme Hill of the ones at the front of the market. He has never had any luck at the festival running into a stacked field in the Albert Bartlett where he finished a length and a half off Monkfish before being undone by a great ride from Danny Mullins to be only just denied in the Stayers Hurdle last year. He goes well at Cheltenham he will stay all day and we just have to hope his jumping has sharpened up a little. The market seems to hate him having drifted from 5s to 10s in the last few day which is my main concern. I have already backed him at 5s and will be tentatively going in again at 10s hoping that if there is a problem he just gets pulled. Of the rest it is probably worth keeping an eye on the place price of Adamantly Chosen who got supplemented here for the only race at the festival they hadn't entered him for. He was second behind Gerri Colombe at Limerick ahead of Kilcruit before finishing best of the rest (ahead of Gailliard du Mesnil) behind Mighty Potter the last day. Anything around the 4/1 for a place is a great little bet.
1pt ew Thyme Hill 10/1
1pt place Adamantly Chosen 4/1
Champion Chase:
Probably the championship race I have the weakest opinion on. Enurgumene has the best form in his second to Shiskin at Ascot last season but hasn't scaled those heights since. On the basis of the race the last day Edwardstone just about has his measure these days and will have a few pennies on him for shouting value but this one won't be making or breaking the week for me.
0.5pts Edwardstone 6/4
Cross Country:
A race the revolves around Gordon's 2 big guns having their Grand National prep. Hard to think the market doesn't have them the wrong way around based off the believe that course form is everything. Galvin was second favourite for the Gold Cup this time last year and will be giving Delta Work 7lbs when they get to Aintree. Backing him at level weights as the underdog with Davy seemingly having picked him over Delta Work seems the way to go for me here.
2pts Galvin 5/2
Bumper:
I haven't looked much at this race but I did have one of these horses in my tracker - Loughglynn. He won a competitive bumper at Naas where the first 2 pulled well clear of the rest and the second horse Firefox then went on to win the next day in Navan by an impressive 10Ls. He was entered to run in Naas a couple of weeks ago on trials day but they pulled him there to save him for this so even though he is down the pecking order I would think he is no lost cause and can hopefully run well at a big price.
0.5pts ew Loughglynn 25/1
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