Here we are back again for Cheltenham no.14 on the blog. Hopefully over the next few days we'll have lots of winners some great shouting value and at least a handful of opinions more controversial than BBC sports presenter. I often get asked why, during the busiest week of the punting year, I take the time to write out my tips and thoughts to try to help a bunch of people I for the most part haven't met take some money off the bookies for no personal reward myself. I have usually tried to explain that it is largely a selfish endevour. That the writing itself is a means of sharpening my thought processes and refining my opinions. I finally found a much better way of explaining it at the weekend on the Farnam St blog below that is well worth a read. It is not a betting blog but a blog for helping you improve how you think and problem solve and I can guarantee it has saved us from plenty of avoidable losers down the years.
https://fs.blog/why-write/
In brief writing is the process by which you realize that you do not understand what you are talking about. Importantly, writing is also the process by which you figure it out. So hopefully at this point I've figured out all i need to know for day one of battle!
Supreme:
A race that's priced up as if the Irish novices are clearly better than their British counterparts but I wouldn't be so sure about that. Seems like there is not a whole lot between the 3 at the top of the market. Facile Vega had a comfortable enough win over Il Etait Temp at Christmas but blew up in the race he won at the DRF which looked at least the equal of Facile's Christmas performance. Facile is priced up on reputation and although the stable seem to think there are no ill effects from his February blow out it is hard to chance him on reputation alone. Based on a line through Ashroe Diamond Marine Nationale would be a very similar level to Il Etait Temps which is a very solid horse but nothing particularly special. Given there is no standout in the Irish contingent it's hard to be so certain they are really that far ahead of what we've seen in England this winter. Tahmuras galloped all over the opposition in the Tolworth the last day and would have been a much more impressive winner but for kicking through the last 2 hurdles. Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win this race and thinks he has a stayer in the mould of Noland or Al Ferof on his hands here. He has become a lot more selective about what horse he sends to Cheltenham over the last few years and he clearly thinks he has an above average group of novices on his hands this year. Given that a cheeky treble of Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay is a must at small stakes to give us an interest through the week as there will likely be a big repricing of the Ballymore should Nicholls get off the mark with Tahmuras. The market has been relatively quick to forgive Facile Vega bombing out the last day but they have been nowhere near as understanding of Rare Edition failing to get home over 2m4f in a G2 the last day, however before that he had kicked the subsequent Dovecote winner out of his way in winning at Kempton on Stephens Day in a fast time and it would not be a surprise to see him get involved here at a big price if bouncing back to form.
1.5pts ew Tahmuras 11/1
.75pts ew Rare Edition 28/1
.25pts ew Treble: Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay
Arkle:
A cracking race with 3 horses that would be worthy winners in an average year. Jonbon looked to have the race at his mercy after 2 faultless performances before Christmas but it all changed when El Fabiolo won one of the races of the season in the Irish Arkle where they went a savage pace set by Dysart Dynamo where everyone broke bar him. He was slowing down at the end but still put 10Ls into some good opposition who ended up getting swallowed up by Banbridge at the end as they dropped anchor. The performance was even more impressive than it appeared at first glance as if you go back and look at the tape you can see Daryl Jacobs took the Gringo Trail along the inside rail coming down the back running on the worse ground as all the local jockeys pulled their horses wider and went down the centre of the course. I think it actually put a doubt in Townends mind about where the best ground was after seeing Jacob finish with so much horse. So much so that just afterwards in the Gold Cup he took Galopin Des Champ down the inside rail on the first circuit before realising he was right the first time and going down the centre on the second circuit. Dysart Dynamo will likely go hard in front again and with a furlong less to run he will likely come closer this time around but i would still expect him to be swallowed up by the 2 big guns up the hill and would expect El Fabiolo to get revenge for his narrow defeat to Jonbon at Aintree last year.
1pt El Fabiolo 11/8
Champion Hurdle:
A race to savour rather than punt on. Constitution Hill wins, the only question is how far but at 1/3 that's hardly great insight. He could be one of the all time greats in the making. Enjoy.
Mares Hurdle:
And so move on to another great, all be it one in decline. The whole build up to this race has been framed by the narrative of just how much in decline Honeysuckle is and just how much potential there is in the field behind her looking to deny her the fairytale ending. Lets start with the 'potential' Echos in Rain is a very talented horse but a pure 2 miler - just look at her run in this race last year behind a few of these horse where on soft ground she fade out of contention from the last. That was probably why Townend chose the mercurial Brandy Love. Now she undoubtely has many talents but unfortunately running in a straight line isn't one of them. Going left handed you would think will be less of a problem for her except that on softer ground you really need to come up the stands rail at Cheltenham to find the better ground - best of luck to Paul with that as she is more likely to take off for an extra circuit than she is to not try and head for the Best Mate enclosure rather than the winning post. Love Envoi is still improving but at the minute is nothing more than a high class handicapper and Marie's Rock is the horse we saw winning a much poorer renewal last year but is now favourite for the best mares hurdle ever run. And so that all brings us back to Honeysuckle. A lot of people who could not tell you what a pound means have very confidently been stating that she is clearly 14lbs worse than she was 2 years. Exactly 14lbs no more no less and repeated with certainty ad naseum. Faced with the blind certainty of ignorance lets look a little closer because she clearly hasn't been at her best this season but how far has she fallen? On her reappearance she wasn't quite strong enough at the death to see off a previous stayers hurdle winner and a future stayers hurdle winner going down by less than 3Ls to Teahupoo and Klassical Dream and still miles clear of the rest. Then she went to the Irish Champion hurdle and was beaten 4Ls by State Man the only horse given a squeak to beat the beast that is Constitution hill in the Champion. Hardly the form of a horse than has given up and its hard to think that if Vauban or Teahupoo lined up here they would not be considerable shorter against this field. In the end the answer to this race come from Tennyson and not the preview night echo chamber.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Victory tomorrow would be poetic end to a great career and although there is no room for sentimentality in winning punting for once it is the cynics and the naysayers that hold sway on the masses and so it will be an extra sweet victory to win in such a fashion. It would also be remiss to forget Epatante - the other faded royalty in the field. There is life in here yet and at bigger prices she might make it a clean sweep for the older generation.
2pts win Honeysuckle 4.8
2pts place Honeysuckle 1.96
1pt place Epatante 2.86
NH Chase:
Getting late so I'll keep it brief. Galliard du Mesnil is the best horse and the only one proven to stay the distance. He should win and win comfortably.
2pts win Galliard du Mesnil Evns
And now the thoughts of the Handicap King:
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