OK another small profit eeked out with a few disappointments along the way. Unfortunately due to othe committments it is going to be a fairly short blog tonight but the plan is to try and find time between Ukrainian riots to tweet any thoughts on the other races if I have time to pick through them. The dormant @Gambrose888 will have anything not covered here.
Albert Barlett:
Might as well start with my bet of the week. See this as a 2 horse race and have been holding off on having a bet until the mountain of cash looking to get long Briar's Hill has had an impact on the price. This guy could go off evens favourite creating massive value on Kings Palace. 2 runs at Cheltenham (including one over this distance) and 2 wins by a combined 32 lengths. Briar's Hill has good form too but winning the bumper here is no guarantee of future festival success. I really see it as a race between the 2 of them but with Kings Palace 3 times the price of Briars Hill he has to be backed. Also given his price and how far clear these 2 should be of the rest I'll be going ew here too. He's 7/2 currently but I'd be pretty confident that 4s will be offered at some point on him tomorrow.
5pts e/w Kings Palace 7/2 or better
Gold Cup:
I sided with Bob's Worth against Silviniaco Conti last year and despite a less fluent preparation this year I think he will maintain his phenomenal Cheltenham record. Have never quite talked myself around to being an SC fan and he prob looks slightly flattered by his King George win when Cue Card stopped dead. At the current prices I can readily oppose him. Likewise with Last Instalment, after 2 years off the track this will be his 3rd race in 60 days and without an in depth knowledge of the drugs that were found in Fentons yard I would imagine he is likely not to show his best here today. His stablemate on the other hand probably is not quite good enough to win this and should run well enough to claim a place. First Lieutenant has a festival record of 122 with only Bobs Worth and Cue Card beating him - expect to see him close to his best and making the frame even if not quite doing enough to bring home the cup. Another horse who is probably overpriced is The Giant Bolster who has been 2nd and 4th in the last 2 Gold Cups. He won the Argento here back in Jan and another big run is expected here. Hopefully he can do enough to edge into a place.
1pt Bob Worth 2/1 or better
1.5pts First Lieutenant to place BSP
0.5pts The Giant Bolster to place BSP
Thursday, 13 March 2014
Wednesday, 12 March 2014
Give Powers Whisky a shot
Nice solid day today with 2 winners and profit on
every race, but lets not get carried away yet – its half time and theres
a lot more racing to come including my bt of the week… but that’s not
until Friday.
Hopefully we can dig out a few winners in tomorrows card first which on the whole looks a tougher ask than today.
JLT Novices:
I have an ante-post slip on Wonderful Charm for
this but apparently he had a setback a few weeks back and not had the
ideal preparation for this. Not a race I think the Irish can win
with Felix Yonger looking overhyped although
he should improve for the better ground after getting turned over in
the mud the last 2 times. I don’t see that much between him and the
possibly under-rated Djackadam but would be surprised if either are good
enough to win this. Mozoltov could spring a shock but I doubt it.
Of the English Oscar Whisky has pretty much beaten
everyone else although was getting 8lbs from Wonderful Charm when he won
by 1/2l over course and distance. I think 2m5f on good ground is his
perfect conditions and people who talk of him
not being a festival horse should remember he was 3rd to
Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle here 3 years ago before being sent
over distances to long for him. At the age of 9 he’s not getting any
younger but I still think this is his chance for
the festival win he deserves although if Wonderful Charm is 100% he’ll
have a proper battle on his hand. Taquin du Soleil might make a clean
sweep of the places for the English here and isn’t far off Oscar Whisky
on previous form.
1pt e/w Oscar Whisky 6/1
Pertemps:
As close to no opinion as possible. But If In Doubt
was ½l off Fingal Bay the last time when only out for a jog. Large
chance of a bounce from Fingal Bay on his second run back from a long
layoff (although even top weight might not stop
him if he is as good as he used to be) Tentatively put a few shillings
on If In Doubt.
.25pts e/w If In Doubt 8/1
Ryanair:
One of the easiest races of the meeting to analyse.
Beneficient jumped like a stag last year when beating Dynaste by 3
1/2ls to win the Jewson – no reason to expect any change in the result
this year. A lot of other horses are here after
Plan A didn’t work out which is not the ideal preparation and can be
readily discounted.
2pts e/w Beneficient 4/1
World Hurdle:
Where to start? The 4 times champ or the 2014
champion. Lets start with Big Bucks, a machine of a horse with 4 titles
but 11yo and coming back from an injury he was flattered by how bad the
competition was the last day in the Cleeve when
Knockara Beau (who doesn’t even line up here) put the nail in afew of
these runners title ambitions. At Fishers Cross seems to have forgotton
how to jump this year and I suppose you could make the case he was
comfortable the best horse in the Cleeve jumping
aside but with 12 hurdles from start to finish for him to attempt to
demolish it’s hard to justify getting involved here.
I think for the second time this week in
Championship races McCoy has got it wrong. More of that actually looks
like a proper 3m hurdler who has posted a couple of big runs this year
and has the most room for improvement of any of these.
I’m a big fan of this horse but unfortunately for him due to the
quality of the Champion Hurdle he now has to race against the best mare
since Dawn Run (and I include my nemesis Quevega in that). 10/10 she’s
never even been off the bridle to beat some top
class opponents. I really can not see her getting beaten. The trip is
an unknown but she looks like she should stay.
Fortunately Paddy Power are giving us a way to cash
in either way – Moneyback if second to Annie Power (max 50). So I will
take her to win and have an ew cover on More of That
2.5pts win Annie Power 6/4 now but hopefully some bookie will try to take her on in the morning and we get 7/4
1 pt ew More of That 10/1
Byrne Plate:
No strong opinions here. Third Intention looks like the right profile around the 14/1 but a nominal interest if any for me.
Kim Muir:
I was impressed with the way Indian Castle beat
Annacotty on trials day and is a worthy favourite. Find someone offering
5 places and have a nibble.
0.5pts Indian Castle 7/1
Tuesday, 11 March 2014
Time to finally show due respect for the Sire
A sad day overall with a small profit being over shadowed by Our Conor's fatal fall. Made the day feel like a defeat even if we do have our noses ahead. I suppose we can take some consolation though from the fact that there is at least some chance Quevega will be retired by next year so we won't feel obliged to set fire to any more cash on the mare's hurdle. On to tomorrow it looks like a busy day with some small bits of edge without ever getting to unleash with both barrels.
Neptune Hurdle:
Let's just be clear from the start Faugheen might have the same colours, the same jockey, the same trainer as Vautour but I don't rate him nearly as highly as his stablemate and it is hard to understand him going off a shorter price to win than Vautour. He doesn't jump as well, isn't battle hardened and apparently hasn't had the most fluent of preparations since Christmas so to be honest I think if WM is to win this it will be his second string Rathvinden that does the business. Second here on trials day to the very good Red Sherlock giving away 3lb he might just improve past him of the much better ground tomorrow. It's hard not to like Red Sherlock unbeaten in 6 starts including over course and distance but with the going looking on the firm side of good despite the official description I think he might just get done here by a faster horse. Royal Boy is interesting especially given Josses Hill's run in the Supreme today - take Vautour out of the picture and you would have said he won a standard enough renewal of the Supreme..last time out Royal Boy beat him 1/2l in the Tolworth. One big concern I have though is that the only time he raced on ground better than soft (which admittedly was a chase) was his worst performance on a racecourse and given his injury profile perhaps he needs a big more give in the ground. I think he will shorten on the day but I just can't quite bring myself to part with cash on him so will have a small interest on Ruby being wrong on the stables best in this.
0.5pts e/w Rathvinden 7/1
RSA Chase:
The betting for this race is proof if any was needed that if Willie Mullins put a saddle on me and told the world Ruby would be getting up on me the bookies would make me favourite for something at the festival. How people could think they are getting value backing Ballycasey is beyond me. He has lost every time he has tackled 3m before (in PTPs and a G1 hurdle when not staying behind Morning Assembly) and any time he has raced over a shorter trip he has won. You really want to bet cash on this lad getting up the hill in front?
Carlingford Lough looks short of the class needed to win this (2 wins in 13 chases) and may struggle to ping his fences at the speed required. I think Morning Assembly is slightly better and will appreciate the trip more but comes without a prep run and off the back of a defeat to Carlingfor Lough so if I had to back an Irish horse I would probably have to side with Don Cossack whose form is pretty much on a par with the first 3 mentioned except that he will appreciate both the better ground and the step up in trip, throw in the fact that he is nearly twice the price and he starts to look a little appealing.
2 of the English challengers catch the eye. Smad Place who has been placed in 2 world hurdles and seems to have got his jumping together after falling first time out. Not sure he is quite good enough to win this but hard to see him out of the frame if his jumping holds up and he is my ante-post bet.
The other interesting horse is Annacotty - probably a little young to win this but has won a G1 over 3 miles and very nearly won the novice handicap chase here on trials day under top weight. Given how poor I rate a lot of the horse here its hard not to have a few pence down at 25/1
.5pts e/w Don Cossack 14/1
.25pts e/w Annacotty 25/1
1 pt Smad Place to be placed Betfair SP
Coral Cup:
I had been going to put up Dell Arca here but he has been cut from 16's to 12's since I left work and that combined with the possibility that he left his race in the Newbury mud when coming 2nd in the Betfair hurdle. Smashing probably didn't have as much taken out of him being interfered with and hampered on the run in so 5lbs better off here and twice the price might be worth a small nibble.
.25pts e/w Smashing 25/1
Champion Chase
I'll admit that it took me a while to come around to Sire de Grugy as a bet here but a lot of that were the ludicrous' prices being quoted about him winning this race over the spring. Now all of a sudden everyone seems to have a different trend or stat that proves beyond doubt that he cant win and as a result he is not at a very backable price. Yes pretty much every horse that has ever beaten him is lining up tomorrow but since he began his 2 stone rise in the ratings only one horse has beaten him - Kid Cassidy who mugged him at Cheltenham in November and that was when receiving 10lbs. SdG jumped terribly that day and if anything gets him beat it will be his jumping because other than that he holds everyone here on all known form. He beat the 2nd fav by 7 lengths that last time they met and Arvika Legionnaire ended up pulled up in last years Arkle. Baily Green is priced up off 1 race coming second in last years Arkle and despite the great record of Arkle winners in this race he has done nothing since so happy to overlook him.
2.5pts Sire de Grugy 3/1
Cross Country
One of the best value races of the meeting with the same horse and trainers dominating time after time. Despite the cash coming for Star Neuville I think people may be underestimating theunique demands of this course when pricing him up so short. I see this revolving around 3 horses. The current champion Big Shu, the previous champion Balthazar King and new kid on the block Love Rory. The only one with questions to answer is Love Rory who beat Big Shu in the Risk of Thunder Chase in Punchestown over the winter. That was over 3m, this is 3m 7f the question is will he stay that as a 6 yo? I'm not sure but priced at 12/1 I'm willing to find out. In fact all 3 should be backed to fight out the places here as with top 4 getting paid the e/w value is usually huge given the domination a handful of horse have here.
1pt e/w Lover Rory 10.1
1pt e/w Big Shu 5/1
1pt e/w Balthazar King 7/1
You're on your own for the last 2 - although might be worth mentioning Paul Nicholls felt his nap of the meeting is a horse making its English debut Katgary around the 10/1 mark. If I do anything it might be to nibble at that.
Neptune Hurdle:
Let's just be clear from the start Faugheen might have the same colours, the same jockey, the same trainer as Vautour but I don't rate him nearly as highly as his stablemate and it is hard to understand him going off a shorter price to win than Vautour. He doesn't jump as well, isn't battle hardened and apparently hasn't had the most fluent of preparations since Christmas so to be honest I think if WM is to win this it will be his second string Rathvinden that does the business. Second here on trials day to the very good Red Sherlock giving away 3lb he might just improve past him of the much better ground tomorrow. It's hard not to like Red Sherlock unbeaten in 6 starts including over course and distance but with the going looking on the firm side of good despite the official description I think he might just get done here by a faster horse. Royal Boy is interesting especially given Josses Hill's run in the Supreme today - take Vautour out of the picture and you would have said he won a standard enough renewal of the Supreme..last time out Royal Boy beat him 1/2l in the Tolworth. One big concern I have though is that the only time he raced on ground better than soft (which admittedly was a chase) was his worst performance on a racecourse and given his injury profile perhaps he needs a big more give in the ground. I think he will shorten on the day but I just can't quite bring myself to part with cash on him so will have a small interest on Ruby being wrong on the stables best in this.
0.5pts e/w Rathvinden 7/1
RSA Chase:
The betting for this race is proof if any was needed that if Willie Mullins put a saddle on me and told the world Ruby would be getting up on me the bookies would make me favourite for something at the festival. How people could think they are getting value backing Ballycasey is beyond me. He has lost every time he has tackled 3m before (in PTPs and a G1 hurdle when not staying behind Morning Assembly) and any time he has raced over a shorter trip he has won. You really want to bet cash on this lad getting up the hill in front?
Carlingford Lough looks short of the class needed to win this (2 wins in 13 chases) and may struggle to ping his fences at the speed required. I think Morning Assembly is slightly better and will appreciate the trip more but comes without a prep run and off the back of a defeat to Carlingfor Lough so if I had to back an Irish horse I would probably have to side with Don Cossack whose form is pretty much on a par with the first 3 mentioned except that he will appreciate both the better ground and the step up in trip, throw in the fact that he is nearly twice the price and he starts to look a little appealing.
2 of the English challengers catch the eye. Smad Place who has been placed in 2 world hurdles and seems to have got his jumping together after falling first time out. Not sure he is quite good enough to win this but hard to see him out of the frame if his jumping holds up and he is my ante-post bet.
The other interesting horse is Annacotty - probably a little young to win this but has won a G1 over 3 miles and very nearly won the novice handicap chase here on trials day under top weight. Given how poor I rate a lot of the horse here its hard not to have a few pence down at 25/1
.5pts e/w Don Cossack 14/1
.25pts e/w Annacotty 25/1
1 pt Smad Place to be placed Betfair SP
Coral Cup:
I had been going to put up Dell Arca here but he has been cut from 16's to 12's since I left work and that combined with the possibility that he left his race in the Newbury mud when coming 2nd in the Betfair hurdle. Smashing probably didn't have as much taken out of him being interfered with and hampered on the run in so 5lbs better off here and twice the price might be worth a small nibble.
.25pts e/w Smashing 25/1
Champion Chase
I'll admit that it took me a while to come around to Sire de Grugy as a bet here but a lot of that were the ludicrous' prices being quoted about him winning this race over the spring. Now all of a sudden everyone seems to have a different trend or stat that proves beyond doubt that he cant win and as a result he is not at a very backable price. Yes pretty much every horse that has ever beaten him is lining up tomorrow but since he began his 2 stone rise in the ratings only one horse has beaten him - Kid Cassidy who mugged him at Cheltenham in November and that was when receiving 10lbs. SdG jumped terribly that day and if anything gets him beat it will be his jumping because other than that he holds everyone here on all known form. He beat the 2nd fav by 7 lengths that last time they met and Arvika Legionnaire ended up pulled up in last years Arkle. Baily Green is priced up off 1 race coming second in last years Arkle and despite the great record of Arkle winners in this race he has done nothing since so happy to overlook him.
2.5pts Sire de Grugy 3/1
Cross Country
One of the best value races of the meeting with the same horse and trainers dominating time after time. Despite the cash coming for Star Neuville I think people may be underestimating theunique demands of this course when pricing him up so short. I see this revolving around 3 horses. The current champion Big Shu, the previous champion Balthazar King and new kid on the block Love Rory. The only one with questions to answer is Love Rory who beat Big Shu in the Risk of Thunder Chase in Punchestown over the winter. That was over 3m, this is 3m 7f the question is will he stay that as a 6 yo? I'm not sure but priced at 12/1 I'm willing to find out. In fact all 3 should be backed to fight out the places here as with top 4 getting paid the e/w value is usually huge given the domination a handful of horse have here.
1pt e/w Lover Rory 10.1
1pt e/w Big Shu 5/1
1pt e/w Balthazar King 7/1
You're on your own for the last 2 - although might be worth mentioning Paul Nicholls felt his nap of the meeting is a horse making its English debut Katgary around the 10/1 mark. If I do anything it might be to nibble at that.
Monday, 10 March 2014
The Usual Suspects
Right the countdown clock is into hours not days and the bookies are lining up to let us take their cash so lets not disappoint!
Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.
3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1
Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.
.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2
Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.
I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.
2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1
Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?
Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.
1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1
No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered
Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.
3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1
Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.
.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2
Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.
I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.
2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1
Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?
Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.
1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1
No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered
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