A sad day overall with a small profit being over shadowed by Our Conor's fatal fall. Made the day feel like a defeat even if we do have our noses ahead. I suppose we can take some consolation though from the fact that there is at least some chance Quevega will be retired by next year so we won't feel obliged to set fire to any more cash on the mare's hurdle. On to tomorrow it looks like a busy day with some small bits of edge without ever getting to unleash with both barrels.
Neptune Hurdle:
Let's just be clear from the start Faugheen might have the same colours, the same jockey, the same trainer as Vautour but I don't rate him nearly as highly as his stablemate and it is hard to understand him going off a shorter price to win than Vautour. He doesn't jump as well, isn't battle hardened and apparently hasn't had the most fluent of preparations since Christmas so to be honest I think if WM is to win this it will be his second string Rathvinden that does the business. Second here on trials day to the very good Red Sherlock giving away 3lb he might just improve past him of the much better ground tomorrow. It's hard not to like Red Sherlock unbeaten in 6 starts including over course and distance but with the going looking on the firm side of good despite the official description I think he might just get done here by a faster horse. Royal Boy is interesting especially given Josses Hill's run in the Supreme today - take Vautour out of the picture and you would have said he won a standard enough renewal of the Supreme..last time out Royal Boy beat him 1/2l in the Tolworth. One big concern I have though is that the only time he raced on ground better than soft (which admittedly was a chase) was his worst performance on a racecourse and given his injury profile perhaps he needs a big more give in the ground. I think he will shorten on the day but I just can't quite bring myself to part with cash on him so will have a small interest on Ruby being wrong on the stables best in this.
0.5pts e/w Rathvinden 7/1
RSA Chase:
The betting for this race is proof if any was needed that if Willie Mullins put a saddle on me and told the world Ruby would be getting up on me the bookies would make me favourite for something at the festival. How people could think they are getting value backing Ballycasey is beyond me. He has lost every time he has tackled 3m before (in PTPs and a G1 hurdle when not staying behind Morning Assembly) and any time he has raced over a shorter trip he has won. You really want to bet cash on this lad getting up the hill in front?
Carlingford Lough looks short of the class needed to win this (2 wins in 13 chases) and may struggle to ping his fences at the speed required. I think Morning Assembly is slightly better and will appreciate the trip more but comes without a prep run and off the back of a defeat to Carlingfor Lough so if I had to back an Irish horse I would probably have to side with Don Cossack whose form is pretty much on a par with the first 3 mentioned except that he will appreciate both the better ground and the step up in trip, throw in the fact that he is nearly twice the price and he starts to look a little appealing.
2 of the English challengers catch the eye. Smad Place who has been placed in 2 world hurdles and seems to have got his jumping together after falling first time out. Not sure he is quite good enough to win this but hard to see him out of the frame if his jumping holds up and he is my ante-post bet.
The other interesting horse is Annacotty - probably a little young to win this but has won a G1 over 3 miles and very nearly won the novice handicap chase here on trials day under top weight. Given how poor I rate a lot of the horse here its hard not to have a few pence down at 25/1
.5pts e/w Don Cossack 14/1
.25pts e/w Annacotty 25/1
1 pt Smad Place to be placed Betfair SP
Coral Cup:
I had been going to put up Dell Arca here but he has been cut from 16's to 12's since I left work and that combined with the possibility that he left his race in the Newbury mud when coming 2nd in the Betfair hurdle. Smashing probably didn't have as much taken out of him being interfered with and hampered on the run in so 5lbs better off here and twice the price might be worth a small nibble.
.25pts e/w Smashing 25/1
Champion Chase
I'll admit that it took me a while to come around to Sire de Grugy as a bet here but a lot of that were the ludicrous' prices being quoted about him winning this race over the spring. Now all of a sudden everyone seems to have a different trend or stat that proves beyond doubt that he cant win and as a result he is not at a very backable price. Yes pretty much every horse that has ever beaten him is lining up tomorrow but since he began his 2 stone rise in the ratings only one horse has beaten him - Kid Cassidy who mugged him at Cheltenham in November and that was when receiving 10lbs. SdG jumped terribly that day and if anything gets him beat it will be his jumping because other than that he holds everyone here on all known form. He beat the 2nd fav by 7 lengths that last time they met and Arvika Legionnaire ended up pulled up in last years Arkle. Baily Green is priced up off 1 race coming second in last years Arkle and despite the great record of Arkle winners in this race he has done nothing since so happy to overlook him.
2.5pts Sire de Grugy 3/1
Cross Country
One of the best value races of the meeting with the same horse and trainers dominating time after time. Despite the cash coming for Star Neuville I think people may be underestimating theunique demands of this course when pricing him up so short. I see this revolving around 3 horses. The current champion Big Shu, the previous champion Balthazar King and new kid on the block Love Rory. The only one with questions to answer is Love Rory who beat Big Shu in the Risk of Thunder Chase in Punchestown over the winter. That was over 3m, this is 3m 7f the question is will he stay that as a 6 yo? I'm not sure but priced at 12/1 I'm willing to find out. In fact all 3 should be backed to fight out the places here as with top 4 getting paid the e/w value is usually huge given the domination a handful of horse have here.
1pt e/w Lover Rory 10.1
1pt e/w Big Shu 5/1
1pt e/w Balthazar King 7/1
You're on your own for the last 2 - although might be worth mentioning Paul Nicholls felt his nap of the meeting is a horse making its English debut Katgary around the 10/1 mark. If I do anything it might be to nibble at that.
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