The Usual Suspects

Right the countdown clock is into hours not days and the bookies are lining up to let us take their cash so lets not disappoint!

Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.

3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1

Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.

.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2

Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.

I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.

2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1

Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?

Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.

1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1

No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered