Solid start to the week with Mullins delivering our 14/1 (just). On to tomorrow might not have time to cover the whole card so we'll start with the big one.
Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.
3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever
Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.
1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1
RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).
1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2
Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.
Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.
1.5pts ew @15/2
Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week
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