Finally after a dark 362 days we are finally on the verge of another Cheltenham. Day 1 is a day that for a long time I thought I wouldn't really be involved in betting-wise struggling to find something to go to war against Mullins hotpots with before eventually coming to my senses and largely surrendering to the inevitability that once again it will be a 'Ruby Tuesday' (wish there were markets on how many times that headline will be used in the next 2 days!) The fish have to win sometimes to keep them interested in the game and tomorrow is a day for the fish but that doesn't mean we can't mop it up too.
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences
Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though
Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.
1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1
Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.
Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.
The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:
Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.
0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1
In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper
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