The Vau Factor

Pretty flat day today so if that's the worst the week has in store for us I'll take that. Just a quick round up tonight but not at my real job on Friday so probably will have a longer post first thing Friday morning for the last days action.

JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux  was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.

3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)

Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4

1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1

Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:

15:20

Full result

1st	3 Dodging Bullets	9/2
2nd	9 Somersby (IRE)	33/1
3rd	10 Special Tiara	18/1

• Distances 1 ¼, 1 ¾

So pretty much away from Cheltenham he is a solid 4th in the Champion Chase unfortunatley at Cheltenham he is probably not going to finish the race. Now last day out he beat Ma Filluele by 3Ls and I expect her to improve from that having obviously not being fit first time out and then made to run in a sham of a race at Aintree which was effectively a 3m bumper after Aintree decided to run the race without any of the fences. Was a close second here last year to Holywell and I expect her to be there or thereabout tomorrow. The 3rd horse to look at is Taquin du Seuil who won the JLT last year but over 3m hasn't fired at all this season. If he gets his game together he will put it up to everyone here. Have to take a lot on trust but I think his price probably reflects that. I have accidently ended up with a pretty decent bet on Don Cossack  having steamed into the Champagne Fever/DC double on the logic that the market would shorten him up to 9/4 after CF won today however that didn't really work out. I think he is flattered by the form a bit getting to race a lot of good horses in situations where they were never going to perform to their best.

1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil

World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.

1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper

In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par