To the future and Better Days Ahead

So one final quick word to get us through to the end of the week. Hopefully the expected Unexpected Party on Wednesday has you all in a good spot to play with the bookies money for the final day. Is I had any doubts about winding down my blog they were quickly dispelled this evening. I went to collect an ante-post slip I had on Stateman at 6/1 from Christmas. I was kept waiting at the counter for 15 mins allegedly while they 'checked with head office that the price was right' while the cashier furiously typed my description into their system to ensure that that was the last time I would ever get a value bet down in that shop without head office being informed and my stake being limited to €20 win only SP. The bookie shops are dead and unless you are one side or the other of regular drug deals your custom will be viewed with all the suspicion of man in a trenchcoat loitering around the local playground. But before we wind down completely we will have one last blast to extract what we can from the camel coats.

Triumph:

The loss of Sir Gino barely diminishes this contest. A really intriguing battle all be it centring around Willies large contingent. The entire field seems tied together by the Spring Juvenile Hurdle form where 4 of the top 5 in the market finished within 2 1/4Ls of each other. The market seems a lot more confident of sorting through that pecking order than I could ever be and it seems like they all have some largely indeterminate amount of improvement left from that day. On the basis of being the largest price I would have to think Bunting is the best bet as on the evidence they all have largely similar chances of improving to the level required to win this. The one horse the market (and admittedly me) had largely overlooked is Mighty Bandit who destroyed Lark in the Morning on his debut before suffering nasal discharge after his race at Christmas and switching stables. His first run was incredible, his second forgivable. If after the Ballyseady garden centre January sale he had ended up staying with Gordon he would be a single digit price here. On that basis he has to be chanced as a saver.

1pt ew Bunting 11/1

.5pt ew Mighty Bandit 25/1

County:

Wow! It is rare that one of the handicaps is one of the races of the week for me but this race has everything. 3 incredibly strong formlines, 5 or 6 genuine superstar contenders and half the field with more weight in hand than Hulk Hogan in his hey day. Leau du Sud and Favoir represent the Betfair hurdle form which was already franked in the Imperial Cup and by the regard in which Iberico Lord is clearly held. By all accounts Leau du Sud wasn't even fit that day and Skelton felt he just need to get a run into him which hints at big improvement from that already high level and is clearly the stable choice here ahead of Favoir. King of Kingsfield and Absurde probably have the strongest formline behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel in Leopardstown although the pecking order here is less clear and Absurde's exploits on the flat winning the Ebor and 6th in a Melbourne Cup Should see him improve past KoK as he gets the hang of hurdling. The Magical Zoe/Zenta/So Scottish line would normally be enough to playing tricast in a race like this but its so hot this year they likely just wont be good enough.

1pt ew Leau du Sud 5/1

1pt ew Absurde 9/1

.25pts reverse forecast Absurde/King of Kingsfield

Albert Bartlett:

Another quality and competitive race. Reading Tommy Wrong is probably the classiest horse in the field and definitely the most likely winner. (Hopefully a place delivers a bit of cash from our ew treble earlier in the week!) However this is a race where the classiest horse doesn't always win. Particularly in a slog on soft ground. There is a case to be made for half a dozen of these but one that has rock solid form and looks like will improve for the step up in trip is Lecky Watson. You could argue his worst performance of the season was 4th  7Ls behind the favourite in the Lalor's of Naas. Having previously run Slade Steel to .5Ls and come 4th in last season's champion bumper he is clearly no mug despite not getting his head in front much.

1pt ew Lecky Watson 11/1

Gold Cup:

Look I think Galopin wins and wins easy..that said he is 11/10 and having backed him at 3s i really dont feel the need to go in again. That said there is probably nothing wrong with backing him at this price. He is the best horse and has the best trainer and will turn up here firing. But looking through the market for a bit of value Corach Rambler at around 16/1 looks to be the each way value. Loves the track and has a real touch of class. Beat Fastorslow the second fav in the Ultima last year albeit getting 5lb and really can't see him being that far away tomorrow. Could easily come out best of the rest and definitely and good price to guarantee some real shouting value.

0.5pts ew Corach Rambler

Hunter Chase:

The fav here is getting very short seemingly as people cotton onto the stamina concerns around Ferns Lock who is probably the classier of the 2 horses. Billaway is an aging monkey that i wouldn't back with monopoly money and Sine Nomine has gone from an interesting outsider to a 'talking horse' probably on the back of the excellent Rhys Williams giving him a good mention in his column. That only leaves Premier Magic. More impressive than his win last year and follow up stroll at Hunter Chase day he has gone 3 from 3 in his points this season including a 10L victory over keyed up and race fit Torygraph by 10Ls at Sheriff Hutton. Seems sure to run his race and will be involved at the finish.

1.5pts ew Premier Magic 7/1

Mares Chase:

Did spend quite a time on this race trying to makes arguements for getting Dino Blue beat and it all really comes down to whether she stays or not as her 2m form is well clear here. Despite havein nearly a stone in hand if it is still soft tomorrow I would struggle to be a backer at around even money and will be a glutton for punishment in going back in on Riviere D'Etel  (albeit at smaller stakes than last year). The pick of her form is up with the best here but can be hit and miss and probably prefers to run right handed. That said was finally finding a bit of rhythm last year after jumping like a piano for the first mile and then came down after jumping into another horse as she cruised into contention. At 18/1 I can forgive her many sins although will probably be watching most of the race from behind the couch.

Martin Pipe:

Like all good pantomines you need to finish leaving people happy and thinking the best is yet to come and so it is fitting that the last horse to be tipped here is called Better Days Ahead. The market is dominated by 2 of the seasons hype horse Quai de Borbon and Waterford Whispers however 2 horse further down the list should be dominating this. Ocastle des Mottes went off fav for the infamous Betfair Hurdle (see L'eau du Sud above) and despite having to be reshod at the start and meeting trouble at every possible point was in contention to 2 out before fading to 8th. He has a live chance of justifying that SP tomorrow in what is likely a slightly softer field. But he may just still find one too good in Better Days Ahead. Here off 140 but is surely a 150+ horse. Was 5Ls off Slade Steel in Navan before attempting to give Supreme 4th Asian Master 15lbs when going down by 10Ls the last day. Will be a graded horse in time and will take down a nice pot here tomorrow.

2.5pts ew Better Days Ahead 10/1

0.5pts ew Ocastle des Mottes 16/1

Out with a bang

 They say you should always stop talking before you run out of things to say and so after 15 Cheltenham's since we started out with the mighty Menorah in the 2009 Supreme it's time to wrap things up here. I want to finish before we drag things out too long and risk the Eamon Dunphy complex of becoming a parody of ourselves. When I started this blog I never went into a bookie shop without seeing at least a handful of bets that I knew were just good. It was a much more competitive bookie shop market with tighter margins and worse pricing - easy pickings for anyone with a bit of quick maths and common sense. Since then things have changed a lot. All the low hanging fruit has been well and truly over-grazed and any easy money is now gone from the market. Nowadays I rarely set foot in a bookie shop except to get out of the rain. That's not to say it's impossible to make money from the bookies but just the opportunities are rarer, smaller and more time sensitive. This all makes it harder to have anything worthwhile to say when you are looking to put up tips 8 hours before anyone is going to have a chance to back them. I always got a lot of enjoyment out of writing this blog and hopefully you've got as much fun out of reading it but at the end of the day it was always about the cash. These were tips to win money and put the odds firmly in your favour over a week of punting and pinting. Any tip I've ever put up I've backed it up with my own cash and never want to get to the point of putting up tips for the sake of something to say. Looking at the markets for the week ahead it's hard to think I can honestly guide you through 24 races and put up something in each expecting to be positive expected value by the end of it. So now the end is near and like Frankie I will continue to do things my way. This blog is going to cover the whole week and highlight a few horses I think are interesting and a few formlines that you should be aware of as the week goes on.

The Supreme:

We kick things off with the Supreme which is all change now that Ballyburn has moved up to take on the longer Gallagher Hurdle. The front of the market is dominated by horses with lots of hype but not that much form. Mystical Power and Tullyhill clearly have lots of potential but at the minute that’s all it is and having never really been tested it is hard to see the case for having them both shorter prices than the only horse to ever have beaten Ballyburn (who probably would have been odds-on if lining up here). Firefox beat Ile Atlantique in a bumper and Ballyburn in a novice hurdle and that is clearly the best form on offer here. He wasn’t 100% the last day judging by the SP and it’s easy to forgive that as an off day in what was a high class field. If you believe that form literally you would want to be having max lifetime bets on Ile Atlantique and in particular Reading Tommy Wrong at the current prices. I don’t believe the form literally but I do believe a little treble on those 3 is a good bet through the week as I think both will shorten after Firefox delivers here. Of the Willie Mullins brigade possibly the one where the price doesn’t overshoot the potential is Asian Master. A horse with a funny profile who started life coming second to Fact to File in a P2P before finding his way into hunter chases for the Costello family and eventually as they realised what they had on their hands they turned him over to Willie to fulfil his full potential. The son Tom maintains the ride so never really gets a mention when discussing the stable pecking order but a lot to like about his 2 runs since moving to Willie. Won his maiden by a cosy length from Jimmy du Seuil (who sluiced in the next day) before beating the Martin Pipe fancy Betterdaysahead out the gate the next day. Admittedly he would have to do that given the pull at the weights he had that day but it was an eye catching performance which suggests he might just have a squeak at causing an upset here. So with zero hype baked into his price I would be happy enough with a small ew nibble particularly with 4 places.

2pts ew Firefox 6/1

0.5pt ew Asian Master 28/1

0.25pts ew Treble Firefox/Ile Altantique/Reading Tommy Wrong

 

The Arkle:

The Arkle is a tricky puzzle where there is case to be made against all of the contenders. Gaelic Warrior probably shortens from here to be a clearer favourite by the off and not hard to see why off his 2 runs before the DRF but it would be a concern at how quickly he broke when Fact to File started to turn the screw down the back the last day. I would be less concerned about the track than most as a festival record of 22 is hardly a massive concern and Townend knows where he needs to be positioned to temper the worst of the right jumping tendancies. Found a Fifty has benefitted from 2 relatively steady races and probably won’t get a race to allow his finishing speed to win out here. Il Etait Temps is probably just one of those nearly horses who never runs a bad race but is always just a few pounds off what is required on the big days and is destined for bridesmaid duties again here. The slightly suprising conclusion I ended up coming to was that Quilixios was the value left in the race.  A former Triumph winner he has the necessary class and course form. The year after a Triumph win is always a tough period for any horse as can be seen by how WPM has changed his training program for the likes of Lossiemouth. There was nothing wrong with how Quilixios put Mister Policeman (an early season hype horse for Closutton) to the sword. Mister Policeman bounced straight back from that with an easy win the next day out and both Quilixios and the horse that came second to him that day Sa Fureur are probably both underrated. Again the double is also the play with Sa Fureur a perfect fit for the Grand Annual off 145.

1pt ew Quilixios 7/1

.5pts ew Quilixios/Sa Fureur double

 

Ultima:

Looking at the top of the market it’s amazing how short some of the talking horses are off all time high marks. Meetingofthewaters is a full 17lbs higher than when winning at Leopardstown last time and Stumptown comes here 12lbs higher than when he just failed to get up in the Kim Muir last year. On the other hand the 3^rd and 4^th from last years race come  here 2lb better and 5lb worse than when winning the race behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow last year. The Goffer seems laid out for the race and is the right favourite here. Monbeg Genius has the National as his main target but really needs a performance here in first time cheekpieces to make that look a realistic target and clearly has the ability to make the frame off his current mark. Slightly interesting is Ben Pauling Twig whose prominent racing style should be an advantage here if the last day was a case of something being off rather than being found out at a higher level

.25pts ew The Goffer 13/2

.5pts ew Monbeg Genius 12/1

.25pts ew Twig 25/1

Champion Hurdle:

A race for watching and enjoying. I have a bet from earlier in the season on State Man and even though I’d rather back than lay at the current prices I won’t be having a bet on the day.

Mares Hurdle:

Another race where I have no real argument with the short priced fav. There are a couple of notable horses if you are looking for something in the betting without markets. Gala Marceu would be half the price she is if it wasn’t for flopping the last day when Willie admitted leaving her short of work. The only horse to ever have beaten Lossiemouth and on her best form would go close with more proven stamina than the favourite. Lantry Lady is the other intriguing horse on only her 3^rd start but already shaping into a 150+ hurdler and at big prices if I was to have a bet I would probably start with those 2.

Boodles:

Honestly haven’t a clue on this one and could spend the whole week looking and still not figure it out. I had thought maybe Karia de Blaises might be being overlooked but having halved in price on Sunday that ship has sailed and nothing here for me.

NH Chase:

I can’t have the Irish here. Corbett’s Cross is very classy but with a tendancy to jump like a piano it could be a long 3m6f for him. Embassy Gardens fairly blew out last year in the Albert Bartlett and couldn’t touch him at these prices. Taking a lot on faith with Salvador Ziggy who bled badly last time out in the US and hasn’t been seen since. I had been hoping Apple Away would go to the Ultima and leave a nice double here with Kilbeg King but both declared here and with Apple Away a G1 winning hurdler I think he could improve past Kilbeg King to land this at a big price.

1pt Apple Away 10/1

 

Wednesday:

Gallagher Hurdle – a tricky start to an even trickier day. Hard to fault Ballyburn and what he’s done this season (unless like me you were left holding a Supreme docket at a big price). The record of 2m G1 winners stepping up in trip for this race is also formidable and Willie probably just called it right in the end. Usually this would set up a great ew betting race at least but seeing I’le Altantique at 4/1 on the bookies screens vs 7.8 on Betfair makes even backing something to run into a place a tough ask. I think I’le Atlantique is a very good horse but given the opposition and the way the race is likely to play out he seems destined for second. If someone did offer me 25s ew on Mercurey I would prob nibble for an interest.  A mercurial horse that was very aptly named he is clearly hard to keep right but when he is right it does seem like they believe the sky is the limit for him but another G1 here that I will probably be forced to watch from the sidelines.

 

Brown Advisory – spent a long time trying to talk myself into opposing Fact to File at evens here but tbh even though he’s never raced over the distance before the breathtaking performance he gave at the DRF over 2m5f makes it hard to make a case for backing anything else. Stay Away Fay is rock solid and loves the course and the more stamina comes into play the more he will love it. I think F2F has to stay to win this because I think this is going to be run at a crazy pace for a 3m race and evens on him staying is probably about fair. For a bet I’ll be looking at the betting without market and with Broadway Boy and Fact to File tearing it up out front I would be pretty confident Stay Away Fay will pick off everyone else once they hit the hill and at 11/8 that is my only way into the race at the minute.

1pt Stay Away Fay (betting w/o Fact to File) 11/8

 

Coral Cup – another race full of intrigue but one that probably revolves around who JP backs and whether Nicky’s horses turn up on Tuesday. If Jeriko de Reponet and in particular Iberico Lord run well on Tuesday it would be impossible not to want to back Dodiethegreat here off the back of the run the last day in the Betfair hurdle. Since then the first has been supplemented to the Champion Hurdle, the second has become County Hurdle fav (L’eau du Sud) and the horses he split in 3^rd and 5^th more or less dead heated in the Imperial Cup on Saturday. If Nicky has his stable right get the cash down early because this horse could go off 5/1 and stick him in a double with L’eau du Sud for a nice payday on the double come Friday. The other horse I can’t help but be drawn to is Brazil. JP has 2 runners here – the fav Sa Majeste who is probably flattered by his win over Noble Yeats in the Limerick mud over Christmas when not really expected to show, and then he also has a horse that won a Boodles from just 3lb lower giving Gaelic Warrior 8lbs and a half length beating but comes off the back of a curious campaign and some betting patterns that make the connections of Yuften blush. Ideally by tomorrow night Sa Majeste will have shortened to 7/2 and Brazil will be friendless at 25/1 priming us for a great late gamble into a single digit SP.

1pt ew Dodiethegreat 7/1

.25pts ew Dodiethegreat/Leau du Sud

1pt ew Brazil (if he gets out to 20/1+ on Wednesday evening)

 

Champion Chase:

Market more or less right here maybe El Fabiolo a touch too short and Jonbon a shade too long but no massive opinion. Should be another fast run race and might put El Fabs jumping under just as much pressure as Jonbon. I have already backed Jonbon at 4/1 ew and once one of the bookies finally takes a chance and pushes him out to that price it’s a great bet to nothing getting most of our cash back when he inevitably trails in second.

1pt ew Jonbon (if he touches 4/1+)

 

Cross Country:

Actually a pretty interesting race although it all revolves around the top of the market. I think unfortunately Delta Works best days are behind him and even though Minella Indo was good over the course in November giving lots of weight away there was very little class in that race and this is an entirely different prospect. The best form this season belongs to Coko Beach though and he is now the highest rated of these horses after a win in the Troytown and a second in the Becher. He won’t be the first Elliot/Gigginstown horse to use this as a stepping stone to Aintree glory and would be a worthy favourite here. At 4/1 he’s a must bet. The other horse worth a mention is Foxy Jacks who beat next time winner Latenightpass here in November giving away 7lbs and even though up against it here if there are 4 places on offer 16/1 seems a do.

2pts ew Coko Beach 4/1

.25pts ew Foxy Jacks 16/1

 

Grand Annual – all going to plan we will already be sitting on a few nice doubles from Quilixios’ Tuesday victory. How good or bad Quilixios runs should inform whether you want to go again or cut your losses with Sa Furuer at this stage. One horse that should not be ignored though is Unexpected Party. A horse the Skeltons had been planning to win this race with last year only to not make the cut and ended up forced into running in the Turners where he wasn’t disgraced 8Ls off Stage Star and 4Ls off Mighty Potter despite racing over a trip than ideal. Won a Listed race easily on his reappearance before being given a ‘typical Skelton winter campaign’ to knock that mark all the way back to 138 from 146. At 16/1 this is a pile on for me.

1.5pts ew Unexpected Party 16/1

 

Thursday:

Turners – there is 16 fences in the Turners, that’s 16 times in the course of 5 mins or so that Facile Vega will be hanging in the air like a freeze frame while Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny take a length or 2 out of him each time. He is the best horse but no horse can give up 20+ lengths in the air and win a decent G1. Fortunately his presence here will create value where previously none existed. If Willie is firing the first 2 days it’s hard to think FV isn’t backed in to close to favouritism by lunchtime Thursday and then will be the time to strike and get Grey Dawning on side. He’s 5/2 now but a bit of patience will hopefully see him the right side of 3/1 and can happily have a smallish bet at those levels.

Pertemps – a race that probably revolves around Gabby Cross’ qualifier in Punchestown although the horse to take out of it could be stable mate Popova who hasn’t been seen since and obviously thinks they have a workable mark there. Will be interesting to see who Rachel Blackmore rides and whoever she does is worth close attention.

Ryanair – hard to get away from Stage Star here for me. Envoi Allen is getting on and Banbridge will need the ground to dry quickly to be seen at his best. Conflated could be a danger if standing up but last years Turner winner and winner of this years PP Gold Cup SS would be fav here if he hadn’t got stuck in the bottomless ground on New Years Day and expect him to add to his tally at the track.

Stage Star 1.5pts ew 5/1

Stayer’s Hurdle – hard to oppose to Teahupoo but at 2/1 not exactly getting much in the way of value. WPM has a few ghosts of Cheltenham’s past here with Monkfish and Sir Gerhard likely runners. Sir Gerhard probably the one to give the favourite a race if he can stay the distance but probably have pennies at most in play here.

 

Plate Handicap – haven’t given a whole lot of thought to this. At this stage Shakeemupharry and Saint Felician are 2 of interest.

 

Mare’s Novice hurdle – looks to be a match. I would think Gordon has the best horse but better horses than that have gotten themselves beaten in this. That said if pushed I would have to have my money on Brighterdaysahead.

 

Kim Muir – the handicap king has drawn my attention to Fakir d’Alenes best form which is somewhat obscured by the alphabet soup of late. At a big price he is definitely a play here.

1pt ew Fakir D’Alene 33/1

 

Ok thats enough writing for one night. I guess I will return with a short Friday piece to finish things out. Hopefully we will be playing with the bookies money by then

GSI

 Back down to earth with a bang today but the darkest hour is always before the dawn and our tough Thursday have (usually) been a precursor for a phoenix like revival on Gold Cup Friday. A trappy card where I actually seem to find myself on a lot of long priced horses so hopefully at least one of the clicks and we can drown the shamrock in style tomorrow.

Triumph Hurdle:

A race that looks to be at Willie's mercy and a 1-2-3-4 here would not be a major surprise. The market largely has the front of the market right now with Lossiemouth shortening and she is a deserved favourite despite being beaten the last day when things went very wrong for her. Although ability wise there is very little between the front 3 as judged by a formline through Nusret I do have a preference for Lossie/Gala who've been in a proper race. Blood Diamond has been impressive but never come under pressure and with novicey jumping it could be a concern when he finally gets eyeballed 2 from home. At the prices I have a slight preference for Gala Marceau and if you can get a bookie to lay you a bet e/w you're getting a free shot at nothing here. Of the rest there is one slightly interesting newcomer just off the boat from France. Jipcot won a valuable listed race in Pau the last time out and as we all known from punting winning big money is never made easy. To put in perspective Jipcot has racked up £44k in winnings from winning her maiden and listed race in France whereas Blood Destiny has made just £16k from winning 2 egg and spoon races like a champ. He probably isn't good enough to challenge the Mullins brigade but he's an unknown with significant upside potential so at 100/1 you probably should have a little saver just in case.

1pt ew Gala Marceau 9/2

0.2pts ew Jipcot 100/1

County Hurdle:

I don't want to step on the Handicapper King's territory too much here but I know I'll get abuse if i'm celebrating a 66/1 winner tomorrow when everyone else is sitting with their heads in the hands so just to flag a horse I've always thought a lot of who has dropped back to a very winnable mark. Glory and Fortune won the Betfair Hurdle last year off 143 before going on to finish 8Ls 4th in the Champion Hurdle. Things didn't go to plan with his chasing career although he looked likely to put it up to Banbridge at Cheltenham in November before unseating 2 out (trading 11/5 at the time). He bombed out in the Betfair hurdle this time around on firm ground which got him a nice 4lb drop to 144 and he could be very competitive off his revised mark. At 66s I can't not get involved.

Albert Bartlett:

An incredibly deep renewal of the race with a lot of quality on display. Corbett's Cross will likely be the best of these horses in time but a slog like this might just be coming a little too soon in his career. He looked very good winning a G2 over 2m the last day and I was hoping to back him at a big price in the Supreme but at a short price here I can probably pass. Three Card Brag still has to prove his stamina and even though he looks like a horse that will stay 3m on soft in this race is going to take some getting and so that is why I'm happy to side with the rock solid form from Monty's Stars G3 win in Clonmel. Hiddenvalley Lake was only just second to his stable mate giving him 6lbs in a race where the front 3 pulled a mile clear on the run in. Before that HVL had well beaten Martin Pipe favourite Cool Survivor and the reopposing Letsbeclearaboutit in a G3 in Cork. His form is rock solid but the 6lb pull at the weights might not just be enough to turn the tables on his fast improving stable mate. The fact that Monty's Star is twice the price on the back of jockey bookings swings me in his favour but I will be covering both and will also look to land another reverse forecast here with such a tight line of form between them.

1pt ew Montys Star 16/1

0.5pt ew Hiddenvalley Lake 8/1

0.25pts reverse forecast

 

Gold Cup:

For once I don't really have a strong opinion here against the market. I backed A Plus Tard at 9s after there was a valid excuse for the Haydock flop. Not seeing him since is a small concern but he still would have been my tip until a few days ago but having halved in price now I'm not sure I would advise going again. Galopin des Champ is a worthy favourite and should stay. At 7/4 I'll likely have a small interest bet on him to cover my antepost position. Of the rest Noble Yeats could be the one to stay on through the mud up the hill best and if you can get 12/1 ew with 4 places that is a very solid bet. 

Hunters Chase:

Vaucelet hasn't been overly impressive since being beaten by Billaway at Punchestown last season and could be a weak enough favourite here. Young up and comer Rocky's Howya could make the step up here and worth a small interest at 12/1

0.5pts ew Rocky's Howya 12/1

Mare's Chase:

After 26 of the 28 races our festival all comes down to this - the decider as to whether we win or the bookies win for the week. I never expected that my bet of the week could possibly come in the Mares Chase but then the world has a way of surprising us these days. In a world where we are bombarded 24/7 with every different type of information and opinions the key to success in any decision making is how you filter and process that information. You need to cut through the noise and latch onto the small rare nuggets of important material that wash over everyone else in a haze of hype, clickbait and controversial soundbytes. And so here we are ready to GSI to a big price street fighting mare against the more flashy tarts at the top of the market . Riviere D'etel cut her teeth fighting it out with the boys in her novice season and lost nothing in defeat to Ferny Hollow and Blue Lord. She came 5th in the Arkle well clear of the likes of Magic Daze (10/1 here) and Haut En Colour (5th in the Plate today) despite showing a tendency to jump right. That tendency has increased this season and by the time she flopped at Carlisle she was holding her head to the right and twisting mid jump again to the right. Zoolander tendencies like that are costly at Cheltenham (as the favourite Allergory de Vassy will likely find out). However somewhere about 2 hours into the PP Cheltenham preview night when everyone else had lost interest, or was already 6 pints deep, Ruby Walsh pipes up with a little comment about Gordon - apparently her carriage and twisting were actually a result of an issue with her back. This was the golden nugget a prospector like me could only dream of! This has since been treated and should allow her to jump straight and pain free. So we have one of last years top novices (2nd fav to Edwardstone for that Arkle) making a return from something which was having a detrimental effect on her performances since at least the 2022 DRF and she is getting priced as the rag of the field who will be lucky to get around. Just let that sink in. I could go on and make straw man arguements for why the other horses can't win. Why AdV is a Zoolander disaster waiting to happen, or why Magic Daze won't stay but do I really need to. We have one of last year's top novices dropping down to race against her own sex where her main opposition are still in their novice seasons. We are getting 20/1 that she can beat a couple of low 150's mares who've had it all their own way so far and never had to go to the well and find the grit that Rd'E found when fighting back against Blue Lord after he swerved across her or eyeballing Ferny Hollow and never flinching. The only question I've been asking myself the last few day is how much is too much to put on this horse. This is not a God given certainty as although we know she acts on soft it is hard to know from her 2 runs over 2m4f - once well beaten by the machine that is Galopin des Champ and once in Carlisle when she wasn't right - whether or not she will be seen to her best over this trip. That one concern over staying the trip is really the only reason this is not the biggest bet of my life given the price. That said I wouldn't really have had many arguments if she was priced up here at 7/2-4/1 by the bookies so I will be watching this one from behind the couch. God speed.

4pts e/w Riviere d'Etel

And now after that rant...the handicaps:

Long wk so short and sweet explanations

County Hurdle

Gin coco is rock solid ew at 10s. 2nd to a champ hurdle level horse in GW in autumn. 4lb rise might be lenient and kept for this since. 

Pinkerton - lightly raced irish novice in uk hcap - hello! Market might also take christmas run at face value when it shouldnt be

1pt ew Gin coco 10s

1 pt ew pinkerton 28s

Martin Pipe

Sa fureur chinned the selection Buddy One on thier last start off level weights. SF was a big punt into favouritism in the coral but met enough trouble to probably excuse the poor run. Either way, the market loved SF so im happy to follow that line of form with Buddy One at a big price. SF may not have been at full tilt the last day in prep for Chelt but Buddy one may not have been either. Gilligan has won at the fez before and gone agonisingly close in 2 x big DRF hcaps in recent years along with his usual Galway fez winners

1 pt ew Buddy One 33s

Something to Appreciate

 An incredible performance today by the Handicap King nailing 2 big priced winners. Leaves us comfortably in the black at the half way point and gives us a bit of firepower over the next 2 days for some of my bigger fancies.

Turners Chase:

I was sweet on Appreciate It for this from a long way out. People were quick to dismiss him as a busted flush after Leopardstown but after Tuesday it's clear there was no disgrace in not being able to live with El Fabiolo off a fast pace. His chase victories prior to that were effortless and he looks a natural jumper. It's hard to forget how he smashed up the Supreme 2 years ago and even off a layoff was made 5/1 second fav for the Champion Hurdle last year. Off a steadier pace he can use the turn of foot to good effect here at the death. Banbridge was flattered the last day as he was running in a different race to Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo who had pulled a distance clear of him before the savage pace took its toll in the final furlong. He was well beaten the time before that at Fairyhouse and hard to make any more than place claims for him. The only real danger to AI is Mighty Potter who has looked at beast at times and is considered by Elliot to be his Gold Cup horse for next season but at a shade of odds on there are a few holes to pick at and he looks too short to me. Aside from a few questionable jumps in each of his chase races to date a big concern for me would be that he will boil over pre-race. Last year they had a hood on him in the parade ring to try to keep him calm around such a big crowd and he was very well behaved in all that was caught on camera but I was struck by a comment from Lydia Hislop on one of the Cheltenham preview shows that getting him the parade ring to the starting post was like trying to wrestle a drunk up the stairs of Coppers at 4am. He burst through a rail and had to be looked over by the vet at the starting line before being allowed to start. He ran like a drunk too that day and was already out of contention by the time he fell. He's going to have to handle the roar of the crowd again this year to have a chance here and even after that he'll need to be every bit as good as Elliott hopes he is to beat Appreciate It.

2.5pts ew Appreciate It 7/2

Ryanair Chase:

A race that completely revolves around one horse and whether on not he will 'bounce'. If Shiskin can reproduce close to what he did at Ascot the last day this will be no contest. Shiskin at his best is close to unstoppable but he has had a tough year and there were doubts as to whether he could come back at all. I would worry this race has come too soon after his comeback run and still think there is enough doubt about which Shishkin turns up to pass on backing what is clearly the best horse in the race and look for a safer e/w alternative. For me that is almost always Fury Road but solid and all as he undoubtedly is it's hard to think that even if Shishkin flops he won't manage to still find something to beat him and although I'm a patient man even with some of the most stubborn 'unlucky' losers I think I've finally learned my lesson and moved on, on this one at least. Of the rest Blue Lord looks the be the one with enough potential to pick up the pieces if anything happens to the favourite here. His defeat at the hands of Gentleman De Mee was probably partly a result of how fast he ran at Christmas and with a better recovery on the run into this will hopefully see him scale those heights again. Willie is flying, Townend is flying, everything seems in place for us to at least get our money back and give ourselves the best chance of a scoop if Shishkin flops.

1.5pts ew Blue Lord 6/1

Stayer's Hurdle:

The roll of honour for the Stayer's Hurdle in my mind doesn't have a horse on it for the last 2 years, it has a jockey. Danny Mullins and pickpocketed 2 Stayer's crowns with fantastic horsemanship the last 2 years in relatively weak contests. Well lightening doesn't strike three times or at least I hope it doesn't because I've concentrated on backing the two G1 horses in a field of mainly G2 types. This race revolves around the Hatton's Grace Hurdle where Honeysuckle finally lost her unbeaten record. Teahupoo edged out Klassical Dream that day and that looks rock solid form. Things have all gone right for Teahupoo since then stepping up in trip to win the Galmoy by 15Ls and as a horse that loves a bit of give in the ground everything is in his favour tomorrow. Klassical Dream has had a bumpier path here and hasn't raced since with a few niggly problems. That said if anyone can have him peak for this day it is Willie. I think Teahupoo will still edge it but both should be covered. Blazing Khal is the Andy Reid of this year's Stayers as the less he raced the better he became in peoples minds and although he has potential he is a horrible price to win and would need a big step up to do so. It probably seems extreme to tip 3 horses in the one race but I can't not also have a bet on Dashel Drasher to place. He never wins but consistently comes 2nd to very good horses in particular when splitting Noble Yeats and Ahoy Senor at Aintree in December.

1.5pts Teahupoo win

0.5pts Klassical Dream win

.25pts reverse forecast

0.5pts Dashel Drasher to place

Mares Hurdle:

I have to be brief due to other commitments but the fav looks short under a penalty. Halka De Talbert gets 5lb and was close to Ashroe Diamond in a muddling race at Navan the last day. A truer run race will suit her and can take a big step forward here. Another one flying under the radar a little is Nikini who was beaten a length by Magical Zoe the last day giving her 4lbs. Off level weights here she is nearly 3 times the price. Patrick is quietly confident on this one and will surely outrun her odds.

1pt ew Halka Du Talbert 12/1

1pt ew Nikini 25/1

And now what you're really here for:

Pertemps

Im all over Maxxum at bigger prices so apologies but its a no bet here for me at the current prices. If you just want a token selection for the craic and dont care about price - well youve guessed it - Maxxum!

4:10 - The whatever they call it now handicap

Emmet probably wins -but no one else on planet earth can tell you what price he should be bar him and Paul Byrne. So i cant touch it! One horse who i will happily back is Shak'em up arry. I know this blog has lots of Arry Redknapp fans so should be a popular winner! Was all the rage over CD in a handicap on NYD when it seems he was played too soon and paid the price. Hopefully they can hold onto him a little longer here. Think the market takes that run on face value which it shouldn't. One thing to note here for this race - in recent years on the track and start point they use for this race, its a huge disadvantage to be held up. The very shrewd Rory Delargy highlighted it a few years back. Things get very narrow at times so hopefully Luca Morgan will have him more towards the front than the back as would be expected based off the timeform pace map. 

1 pt ew Shakem up 'arry

5:30 Kim Muir

Market found the obvious Irish cowboy jobs very early here and i dont see an angle there. I think theres two though with two UK runners. Ben Pauling is having the season of his life which is helping him to shed the nickname Ben Appauling. Anightinlambourn is worth a bet here at 18s +. Won a handicap over CD at the november meeting that is working out very well and has been put away since. That was on quick ground but has soft ground form in the past. Still a possible improver just like the Irish lurkers but at 2x or 3x the price. 

Also want to be with Venetia's Fontaine Collonges in a race where she has had a lot of big priced horses go close or win. Similar to Maskada yesterday in that he was fav for the big Grand National trial at Haydock but theres a good chance you can ignore the run because a very slow start left her much further off the pace than normal. Obviously want her to break like a greyhound today but at the price im willing to hope she can channel her inner Income Freight and bound out!

1 pt ew Anightinlambourn 18s+

1 pt ew Fontaine Collonges 20s +

All the Thyme's in the world

 What an amazing day of racing. Top class races and performances and a couple of fairytales to boot. Most importantly though we have all the clues we need to find tomorrow's winners after todays novice races gave us a better idea of the balance of power between the Irish and their hosts.

Ballymore:

So I said yesterday that I didn't think there was that much between all the Irish novices which was largely borne out by the finish of the Supreme. Unfortunately I then followed that up by assuming if there was no stand out horse in Ireland the gap between the Irish novices and the UK novices is probably smaller than was thought.... Ireland had 9 of 15 runners in the Supreme and saddled the first 8 home so the less said about that call the better! Given the Irish dominance in the Supreme, along with all 3 of Nicholls horses running poorly and drifting badly, it is very hard to make the case I had intended to make for Hermes Allen. This is no longer the tallest dwarf competition he is in and we have to go straight to the Irish contingent in search of the winner. Good Land for the same connections as Marine Nationale was backed this afternoon after the Supreme but looks a short price based on winning a below average Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February. Impaire Est Passe was the toast of the preview circuit and if the hype is to be believed he has the acceleration of a Ferrari and the stamina combined with the stamina of a National winner. He'd eat Constitution Hill for breakfast and put Red Rum to the sword in the afternoon. But at this stage it's hype - that's all it is. The one horse whose chances were significantly improved after today is an old favourite of mine - Champ Kiely. He started the season beating last years Boodles winner Brazil before pulling too hard and coming third behind Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond where he looked to be the best horse in the race. He then went on to win well at Naas when heavily backed on the day in what is usually a good trial for this race. I subsequently flip flopped on his chances a bit with Irish Point disappointing, Marine National not running and Grangeclare West clearly not the horse he used to be. However today's Supreme puts a very different complexion on it. He probably is good enough to be there or there abouts for a Supreme and at a huge price has to be backed tomorrow.

2.5pts ew Champ Kiely 8/1

Brown advisory Chase:

Gerri Colombe is the type of horse I almost always find myself backing - he only every does just enough but keeps on winning without tipping his hand at his true ability. The reason I usually back those horses though is that they are usually over priced. Gerri is priced as if he's been beating G1 horses all season and laughing at them which is clearly not the case and he really looks a bad favourite in a solid enough renewal of the race. Sir Gerhard is undoubtedly the classiest in the field but 1 chase start and no races beyond 2m5f would make me reluctant to get heavily involved being thrown into the deep end here. The Real Whacker could be the description of the trainer as much as the horse - the idea that they were considering the Gold Cup after 2 chase starts and off the career best form of beating the massively overrated Monmiral over 2m4f shows he hasn't a clue what he is doing and that lack of competence is enough for me to instantly discount him here. Which only really leaves us with Thyme Hill of the ones at the front of the market. He has never had any luck at the festival running into a stacked field in the Albert Bartlett where he finished a length and a half off Monkfish before being undone by a great ride from Danny Mullins to be only just denied in the Stayers Hurdle last year. He goes well at Cheltenham he will stay all day and we just have to hope his jumping has sharpened up a little. The market seems to hate him having drifted from 5s to 10s in the last few day which is my main concern. I have already backed him at 5s and will be tentatively going in again at 10s hoping that if there is a problem he just gets pulled. Of the rest it is probably worth keeping an eye on the place price of Adamantly Chosen who got supplemented here for the only race at the festival they hadn't entered him for. He was second behind Gerri Colombe at Limerick ahead of Kilcruit before finishing best of the rest (ahead of Gailliard du Mesnil) behind Mighty Potter the last day. Anything around the 4/1 for a place is a great little bet.

1pt ew Thyme Hill 10/1

1pt place Adamantly Chosen 4/1

Champion Chase:

Probably the championship race I have the weakest opinion on. Enurgumene has the best form in his second to Shiskin at Ascot last season but hasn't scaled those heights since. On the basis of the race the last day Edwardstone just about has his measure these days and will have a few pennies on him for shouting value but this one won't be making or breaking the week for me.

0.5pts Edwardstone 6/4

Cross Country:

A race the revolves around Gordon's 2 big guns having their Grand National prep. Hard to think the market doesn't have them the wrong way around based off the believe that course form is everything. Galvin was second favourite for the Gold Cup this time last year and will be giving Delta Work 7lbs when they get to Aintree. Backing him at level weights as the underdog with Davy seemingly having picked him over Delta Work seems the way to go for me here.

2pts Galvin 5/2

Bumper:

I haven't looked much at this race but I did have one of these horses in my tracker - Loughglynn. He won a competitive bumper at Naas where the first 2 pulled well clear of the rest and the second horse Firefox then went on to win the next day in Navan by an impressive 10Ls. He was entered to run in Naas a couple of weeks ago on trials day but they pulled him there to save him for this so even though he is down the pecking order I would think he is no lost cause and can hopefully run well at a big price.

0.5pts ew Loughglynn 25/1

Coral cup

The Langer Dan handicap mark lolarama rolls around to Cheltenham for a third year running and we will be buying a ticket to the show! Brought down at the first in the Martin Pipe last year, he more than made up for that at Aintree with himself & the well handicapped Fils Doudairies pulling 8l clear. Hes now somehow only 4lb higher which isnt enough to halt him i think. Boyles are 6 places at all times in the handicaps so 10s ew with them is ideal but any 10s ew is good.

Cant resist a small ew play on Grand Roi in this race for the 3rd year running! To make the case - read back the last two years ;)

2 pts ew Langer Dan 10s

0.25 pts ew Grand Roi 50s

Grand Annual

Two darts here against the JP favs. Maskada for Henry was fav in the hot DRF handicap and hit 6/4 IR before a bad mistake 2 out finished him off. Will have to jump better than of late at a quicker speed than of late, but at 22s + im happy to take my chance. Only his fourth run for Henry so angle for more improvement.

Thyme White came to our attention 12 months ago when Paul Nicholls said he was a 160 horse in waiting. The Wed monsoon meant he didnt run so we return to the well again. Nicholls is adamant he needs to be fresh so has been off since November this time. Following trainer opinion can be a dangerous game but Nicholls is no fool so happy to follow him in. Again, the more places the better at what is now a palatable price of 16s

0.5 pts ew Maskada 22s+

0.5 pts ew Thyme White 16s

Honey for the money

 Here we are back again for Cheltenham no.14 on the blog. Hopefully over the next few days we'll have lots of winners some great shouting value and at least a handful of opinions more controversial than BBC sports presenter. I often get asked why, during the busiest week of the punting year, I take the time to write out my tips and thoughts to try to help a bunch of people I for the most part haven't met take some money off the bookies for no personal reward myself. I have usually tried to explain that it is largely a selfish endevour. That the writing itself is a means of sharpening my thought processes and refining my opinions. I finally found a much better way of explaining it at the weekend on the Farnam St blog below that is well worth a read. It is not a betting blog but a blog for helping you improve how you think and problem solve and I can guarantee it has saved us from plenty of avoidable losers down the years.

https://fs.blog/why-write/

In brief writing is the process by which you realize that you do not understand what you are talking about. Importantly, writing is also the process by which you figure it out. So hopefully at this point I've figured out all i need to know for day one of battle!

Supreme:

A race that's priced up as if the Irish novices are clearly better than their British counterparts but I wouldn't be so sure about that. Seems like there is not a whole lot between the 3 at the top of the market. Facile Vega had a comfortable enough win over Il Etait Temp at Christmas but blew up in the race he won at the DRF which looked at least the equal of Facile's Christmas performance. Facile is priced up on reputation and although the stable seem to think there are no ill effects from his February blow out it is hard to chance him on reputation alone. Based on a line through Ashroe Diamond  Marine Nationale would be a very similar level to Il Etait Temps which is a very solid horse but nothing particularly special. Given there is no standout in the Irish contingent it's hard to be so certain they are really that far ahead of what we've seen in England this winter. Tahmuras galloped all over the opposition in the Tolworth the last day and would have been a much more impressive winner but for kicking through the last 2 hurdles. Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win this race and thinks he has a stayer in the mould of Noland or Al Ferof on his hands here. He has become a lot more selective about what horse he sends to Cheltenham over the last few years and he clearly thinks he has an above average group of novices on his hands this year. Given that a cheeky treble of Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay is a must at small stakes to give us an interest through the week as there will likely be a big repricing of the Ballymore should Nicholls get off the mark with Tahmuras. The market has been relatively quick to forgive Facile Vega bombing out the last day but they have been nowhere near as understanding of Rare Edition failing to get home over 2m4f in a G2 the last day, however before that he had kicked the subsequent Dovecote winner out of his way in winning at Kempton on Stephens Day in a fast time and it would not be a surprise to see him get involved here at a big price if bouncing back to form.

1.5pts ew Tahmuras 11/1

.75pts ew Rare Edition 28/1

.25pts ew Treble: Tahmuras/Hermes Allen/Stay Away Fay

Arkle:

A cracking race with 3 horses that would be worthy winners in an average year. Jonbon looked to have the race at his mercy after 2 faultless performances before Christmas but it all changed when El Fabiolo won one of the races of the season in the Irish Arkle where they went a savage pace set by Dysart Dynamo where everyone broke bar him. He was slowing down at the end but still put 10Ls into some good opposition who ended up getting swallowed up by Banbridge at the end as they dropped anchor. The performance was even more impressive than it appeared at first glance as if you go back and look at the tape you can see Daryl Jacobs took the Gringo Trail along the inside rail coming down the back running on the worse ground as all the local jockeys pulled their horses wider and went down the centre of the course. I think it actually put a doubt in Townends mind about where the best ground was after seeing Jacob finish with so much horse. So much so that just afterwards in the Gold Cup he took Galopin Des Champ down the inside rail on the first circuit before realising he was right the first time and going down the centre on the second circuit. Dysart Dynamo will likely go hard in front again and with a furlong less to run he will likely come closer this time around but i would still expect him to be swallowed up by the 2 big guns up the hill and would expect El Fabiolo to get revenge for his narrow defeat to Jonbon at Aintree last year.

1pt El Fabiolo 11/8

Champion Hurdle:

A race to savour rather than punt on. Constitution Hill wins, the only question is how far but at 1/3 that's hardly great insight. He could be one of the all time greats in the making. Enjoy.

Mares Hurdle:

And so move on to another great, all be it one in decline. The whole build up to this race has been framed by the narrative of just how much in decline Honeysuckle is and just how much potential there is in the field behind her looking to deny her the fairytale ending. Lets start with the 'potential' Echos in Rain is a very talented horse but a pure 2 miler - just look at her run in this race last year behind a few of these horse where on soft ground she fade out of contention from the last. That was probably why Townend chose the mercurial Brandy Love. Now she undoubtely has many talents but unfortunately running in a straight line isn't one of them. Going left handed you would think will be less of a problem for her except that on softer ground you really need to come up the stands rail at Cheltenham to find the better ground - best of luck to Paul with that as she is more likely to take off for an extra circuit than she is to not try and head for the Best Mate enclosure rather than the winning post. Love Envoi is still improving but at the minute is nothing more than a high class handicapper and Marie's Rock is the horse we saw winning a much poorer renewal last year but is now favourite for the best mares hurdle ever run. And so that all brings us back to Honeysuckle. A lot of people who could not tell you what a pound means have very confidently been stating that she is clearly 14lbs worse than she was 2 years. Exactly 14lbs no more no less and repeated with certainty ad naseum. Faced with the blind certainty of ignorance lets look a little closer because she clearly hasn't been at her best this season but how far has she fallen? On her reappearance she wasn't quite strong enough at the death to see off a previous stayers hurdle winner and a future stayers hurdle winner going down by less than 3Ls to Teahupoo and Klassical Dream and still miles clear of the rest. Then she went to the Irish Champion hurdle and was beaten 4Ls by State Man the only horse given a squeak to beat the beast that is Constitution hill in the Champion. Hardly the form of a horse than has given up and its hard to think that if Vauban or Teahupoo lined up here they would not be considerable shorter against this field. In the end the answer to this race come from Tennyson and not the preview night echo chamber. 

Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'

We are not now that strength which in old days

Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;

One equal temper of heroic hearts,

Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will

To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Victory tomorrow would be poetic end to a great career and although there is no room for sentimentality in winning punting for once it is the cynics and the naysayers that hold sway on the masses and so it will be an extra sweet victory to win in such a fashion. It would also be remiss to forget Epatante - the other faded royalty in the field. There is life in here yet and at bigger prices she might make it a clean sweep for the older generation.

2pts win Honeysuckle 4.8

2pts place Honeysuckle 1.96

1pt place Epatante 2.86

 

NH Chase:

Getting late so I'll keep it brief. Galliard du Mesnil is the best horse and the only one proven to stay the distance. He should win and win comfortably.

2pts win Galliard du Mesnil Evns 

And now the thoughts of the Handicap King:

Boodles

Usual circus of who has managed to hide the most from the handicapper without getting a ban that is for some reason only given to certain kitchen fitters!!! Lots of cases to be made but i thought Sundial has a bigger upside than a few ahead of him in the market - the best of whom we may have seen already (top 3 excluded). Last year's winning trainer has done a stellar job of not allowing this lad max it out yet. Icing on the cake being his tongue tie taken off on handicap debut and replaced surprisingly today! Theres also an angle for more in hand on his decent flat runs with Coolmore. Timeform has forecasted an 'extreme' pace (which is very rare) so id hope to see him buried early in what should be anything but a speed test on that ground with that gallop. Has stamina from the flat which will hopefully propel him over the top late on to allow us all buy a new kitchen....

1 pt ew Sundial 14s +

Ultima

Again, loads of cases to be made, but two i think that are underrated atm in the market are Threeunderthrufive and The Goffer.

TUTF didnt get home but travelled very well beyond the 3m mark in the classic over 3m5 and this trip could be his optimum. Secondly, cant have a Gordo - Davy unexposed chaser at 16s + so have to nibble that too. Won a red hot handicap the last day and Davy has been and will be selective about his rides since his recent return. Chose to take the ride at DRF and hopefully will be worth his time and effort today too. Small stakes stuff though

0.5 ew Threeunderthrufive

0.5 ew The Goffer

Delaney’s Donkeys

 A special once off blog direct from Canada to mark another good man falling on the battlefields of Kilbeggan!

Few things to note about the mecca that is Kilbeggan before you start.

Sharp track with undulations so good jumping and being near the pace (unless insane burn up!) are big edges. The perfect type of track for the beloved stag to excel on! If you wana just do the scumbag thing to be on a front runner in each race, stand beside a bookie as they jump off and back one of front pack!

Secondly, i do nearly all my bets on handicap racing and very little on maiden hurdles/bumpers at this sort of level. Giving my thoughts here just to try help ye get enough cash to buy/rent whatever humiliation equipment you need for the aforementioned stag who deserves every bit of it! So i will be staking a lot more on the hcaps and beg chase than the rest

16:55 - maiden hurdle

Daisy dufresne (full sister of blog heartbreaker Andy) has the best form and timeform rating by a good chunk. Would be a clear bet except for the potential lurker from Emmets yard. Wont know till 5 mins before if that one will be having cash attached to his headgear or not. I tend to run a mile when Emmet is lurking. But you boys want to bet today, so back Daisy Dufresne and hope Emmet doesnt add cash!

1 pt Daisy Dufresne 13/8

17:30 - 2m Handicap hurdle. 

More my cup of tea. A lot revolves around Trebizond - went off short enough in hot nov hcap at c'mas. Travelled well into the straight but faded then. However that form is red hot again this year as always, plus theres an angle that he might b better back on this quick ground. However, no run in 5 months not ideal for one so short from a yard that can regularly need a tune up. The greek doesnt have oceans in hand from that mark and rodney bay hasnt been missed by the market. The one i want to back is John Ryans Bonarc. If you are new to summer racing in Ireland, John Ryan is King, and yes with a capital K! He has a fantastic summer record and just runs his horses so often but with great success. Had a double and a 2nd yesterday at Clonmel so expect this summer to be no different. With Ryan horses, you sometimes have to dig through the oceans of runs and discard lots of the graded races for eg at this level. Bonarc was coming to challenge here last Sept off this mark and made a horror of the last. Runs since have been fine with some off the pace from bad positions and his chase comeback last day was a joint career best on TFRs. Hopefully he front runs like last two runs. John Ryan for President - lets go.

Also worth adding a saver on Name me famous who has become a new beast from the front and with new headgear. More so another play against the Greek & Treb at the prices

2 pts Bonarc 7/1

1 pt  Name me famous 5/1

18:00 - Maiden hurdle

2 horse race. In a coin toss market, do you want a willie 93 flat horse making his debut or a Gordo 3 run maiden who has not looked straightforward and whose form is not improving? Oh and Townend pops down for just two rides......

1.5 pts Baby Zeus

18:35

Didnt get to this - see above comm re townend!

19:10

A classic kilbeggan beginner chase. A henry chase debutante who can improve lots, plenty who have decent hurdle form but probably arent off and then the ones with some nice chase form but have big possible holes

Best bit of form is Two Shoe Toms last run here. Problem is he will probably be out the back again and might repeat his great but too late trick from last day. The main entertainment here though should come from the fantastically named Ujumpthelastuwin....and yes you guessed it....he cant jump!!! The first, the last or many fences in fact! He has fallen 3 of the last 4 times and jumped like a piano on his completion. Place laying him in any market might give you some entertainment. The only slight unknown is Toofareastiswest who won his last maiden and has a p2p run that is laughably hot for this level. Market hasnt missed him though which i hoped might happen.

All in all, very dull advice but TST is most solid and have a saver on the Henry one incase he comes on a tonne for fences

1pt Two Shoe Tom 10/3

0.75 pt Upping the anti 11/2

19:45- Handicap chase

Pool city, ali foreman, kerry dublin, the stag vs the cops.....this is the one you came for boys! The main event....LFG!!!!

I love these races! quick run through the contenders - Quantum relam is unexposed elliot one who was 2nd last day to good yardstick here and was well clear of 3rd. will sit just off pace - nice. Kalkas is unexposed henry one who ran in top 2m punch hcap but went too hard. Can he get extra half mile and do better fractions?? pat coyne - utterly reliable but something does him i think. Fest deiz - if you can believe the form of the last day, hes v well in off that and his hurdle mark of last summer. jack hacket is a contender in the market but ive laid him at 10s. yes he is attractively handicapped but hasnt shown enough old fire to be this short. 

Main one i want is Funky Dady. Concern is another great but late show from this hold up beast. however there is lots of pace on so maybe it might burn up a bit. He was bang there in all these races last summer off 2 higher and went off 9s in a limerick national but he doesnt fully get 3m (not the issue that day). Have to add QR too considering i thought he should be clear fav

1.5 pts Funky Dady 8s

1 pt Quantum Realm 4s

Bumper - 

Not a breeze. Only note is gordos codd ridden debutante is any price. Pat Doyles debutante quite short but hes a 19% bumper man. Willie fav though ...in the bumper.....i dont really do bumpers but i presume its willie!

0.5 pt willie

Finally....

Unnecessary ew double of the day: Bonarc & Funky Dady

Completely unnecessary ew trixie of the day:  Bonarc & Funky Dady & Two shoe tom

Enjoy the day lads - hope you get some shouting value from this! Vote John Ryan!