Fly on the wings of Angels

One of the great spectacles of sport, a true test of many things beyond pure talent, in both horse and jockey. The grand national - 4m 4fs over the country's toughest jumps, it is a test of character and heart as much as stamina and jumping for the horse, and as much a test of courage and craft as horsemanship and balance for the jockeys. One of the few remaining gladiatorial contests, so raw and true that the falafel munching vegans among us demand it should be banned. Never for a second do they realize that to ban horses like Tiger Roll and Anibale Fly from seeking glory over Aintree fences would be as perverse as taking Lance Armstrong's bike away in case he crashed or giving out to Michael Schumacher for speeding on the finishing straight. This is their Everest and we should do nothing but cheer their (often futile and occasionally, but rarely, doomed) attempts to conquer it. I have stopped putting my handicap thoughts up here since recruiting a better sage in that department but for this epic even I have a champion that no wiser man can talk me out of betting. We will get to that shortly but every feast starts with the hors d'oeuvres..

Mersey Novices Hurdle:
A race that looks a match on paper but seems to have the wrong favourite. It's possible that Angels Breath has never been any more than hype. That his supreme run is really as good as he is and that Southfield Stone's flop today should be the final nail in the coffin for his exalted reputation, but I just don't buy that yet. Usually you make your money by being the first to realizse that everybody has been conned and taking the other side, but occasionally there is value in keeping the faith and trying to remember just why you bought the t-shirt in the first place. By this time tomorrow this opinion may seems as ridiculous as a flat earther advising a pilot on how to navigate without the use of a compass but I hope that the horse that crushed the Ascot maiden and turned up to Kempton like Ricky Hatton on a training break but still fought on for a close second can show that same ability back on a flat track and put away the Lee Westwood of novice hurdles - as the RP blurb says Brewinupastorm has kept good company but no more than Lee Westwood at a major he has never overly bothered than company at the business end of things. Once again tomorrow I would expect to see him on the leaderboard but not in contention. Having gone off 6/1 for a deep open supreme, for Angels Breath to be 3/1 in this race seems a big over-reaction to his run the last day and is a definite bet here.

2pts Angels Breath 3/1

Magull's Chase
A much trappier affair with all of the 5 main contenders coming here straight from the Arkle. You would think that that should make Us and Them an easy selection but the Arkle was a tough race which will likely leave its mark on most of these until next season and the one horse to come out of that race without having a hard race is the one that fell half way  - Ornua. His form on the flat track at Sandown behind Dynamite Dollars is as good as anything the others have done and was rated a similar chance as U&T going into the Arkle. Lalor continues to confound and despite the obvious talent no man with any regard for his bank balance could consider punting him at these prices without any evidence of his well being. Leaves it as a straightforward decision to side with Ornua even if the 7 runners mean we have to go all in on the win rather than play him each way.

1.5pts Ornua 11/2

Stayer's Hurdle:
A race that revolves entirely around the well-being of one horse and failing that the soberness of a drunk jockey. If Apple's Jade is right she wins. No questions. The big question is though having flopped at Cheltenham and having flopped at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring is how can we trust her to run well tomorrow. It's a bizarre situation where the shorter the price the happier I am punting her.  The problem last year of her going in season has apparently  been solved by inserting a marble inside her to trick her into thinking she is already pregnant which up until Cheltenham seems to have had benefits above and beyond what was expected. She scoped dirty after Cheltenham which at least means it was a likely a different reason than last year for her off colour performance making a bounce back more likely this time around. Given steady support since the opening prices were announced I'm happy to nibble here although if she starts to drift into the off cutting your loses is probably the wisest move. If she is not right the next best in the race is Sam Spinner although regular blog follower's will know to their cost the price to be paid for not having a coherent or competent pilot on board - SS got the ride he needed in the Cheltenham stayers 1 year too late to matter for backers here and I couldn't commit any serious cash to backing this combo despite the horse obvious talent. Which brings us back to a true hero of the blog - Roksana. Admittedly lucky at Cheltenham she ran a cracker here last year behind Santini in a 3m novice race and looks a very solid place bet. I'm happy enough to just punt the place part on the exchanges but not costing yourself anything betting the each way with the bookies at 10/1.

1pt Apples Jade 7/4
2pts place Roksana 2/1

Grand National:
Tiger Roll is a true tiger, a winner here last year who has done nothing but improve this season destroying a G2 hurdle over 2 1/2m when only out for a jog before cantering to an easy win in the cross country in Cheltenham. It's not hard to see why he's a hot favourite but 9/2 for any horse to win a National is fairly skimpy odds. The Handicap King will have a full run down of the likely contenders but for me this has all been about 1 horse for a long time. I've spent an entire year looking for spots to back Anibale Fly. Last year he place in both the Gold Cup and the Grand National yet any time he was entered for G1's he was always priced as a plodder not likely to trouble the judge. I thought he really would make my Christmas when being priced up 16/1-20/1 for the Lexus at Leopardstown before being pulled due to good ground so still I waited. Then he went to Gowran to race Monalee but over a distance way to short and still I had to sit on my hands. But with winter passing and the festivals on the horizon the wisdom of Shakespeare seemed clear ( with his most misquoted quote)- 'Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this sun'. Having saved our Gold Cup Friday by landing a place bet when improving a place on last years run he now goes to Aintree in better form off a better preparation than last year when he started half the price. I don't normally dabble in the antepost markets for the national but have been chipping away here for a while. When all the slips are counted and accumulated this will end the week my biggest bet of the meeting. He lost his jockey today to a broken leg in the Topham which is defintely a blow but hero status isn't easily earned and tomorrow Anibale can finally earn his wings.

3pts ew Anibale Fly 16/1

I'll hand you over to the real National expert though after that sentimental rant!

Grand National

The best 8.5 mins of the year. Market dominated by Tiger Roll. On his hurdles win & rpr rating from XC at chelt he is a far superior horse this year which should negate the rise in weights. The issue is the price. 4/1 for a small horse who does not front run in a 40 runner field is not my cup of tea. I think Dounikos and Ramses de Teillee are the two overpriced ones to help you enjoy the 8.5 minutes and night after! I had given up on DOUNIKOS until his excellent win the last day. Simon Rowlands clock tells us that his final sectional was quicker than that of Riders on the Storm whose race was a mile shorter that day. Riders is of course no mug as he went off fav in the Close Brothers. That is impressive stuff. Add in the fact he was geared all last year for the 4 miler at Chelt only for a late diversion to the RSA. His novice form before his alphabet meltdown last year is top class and the form in particular of the 2m5 Flogas leaves him well handicapped. Take Rathvinden for eg, Dounikos was a far superior novice up until his spring explosion. Treble the price of Rathvinden here. Of course we aren't sure why he had so many horror runs pre Punchestown but the nature of his win suggests all is well now. With that sectional, evidence he should stay, being well handicapped and being Elliots second string he should be shorter. Unfortunately he has been hammered into this evening but there is still some juice in the 28s. I made him 22s.

RAMSES DE TEILLEE is not fully exposed, stays, handles all ground, jumps well and front runs. Oh, and he is officially 5lb well in since his nk beat at Haydock after the weights were framed. There are a few others in the same boat re their mark but none that tick so many boxes. And none that are this price. Noonan rides instead of Scu but thats only because he has ridden him on his last 4 so don't be put off by that. 

I don't see anything else that is out of line so am happy with just the two

1 pt ew Dounikos 28s

1.5 pts ew Ramses de Teillee 22s

3m Hc Hurdle

Another handicap, another Elliot fav for me to oppose! Sire Du Berlais won at cheltenham but looked beat a long way out and stamina won the day for him. On a speedier track he may not get away with that and I am more than happy to oppose at 4s, even if super claimer Jonjo Jr takes 3 off. The one to oppose with is MIAS STORM. He was a progressive handicap hurdler who ran two top class nov chases before he forgot how to jump and is now back over hurdles this year. His comeback win was comfortable win in a rubbish race and he then won a Mickey Mouse two runner event but like playing Andorra, he has beat what was put in front of him. Just on the basis of his hurdles only form he would be of interest as a progressive handicapper who has been put away for this probably and from a yard which is red hot right now. Add in that he looked destined for stardom as a chaser and that he may be able use that engine to the same effect over hurdles and I made him clear second fav. Market doesn't agree yet so get involved.

A much smaller bet is advised on GUNFLEET, ideally on Betfair if you can. Same idea as Mias, a hurdler we had not seen the bottom of, disappointed over chases (only on his last run in this case and wasn't going from early) after promising a lot and now returns hurdling. He was pulled out late on Sunday due to the road like conditions at Ascot and I am happy to take the wild Betfair prices, and even the 25s with the shops isnt bad ew

3 pts ew Mias Storm 16/1

.75 pts ew Gunfleet 25s (Betfair much higher)

2m Handicap Hurdle

A race for non pro jocks to finish. Best amongst them are obviously Codd & Jonjo Jr. My two selections have a jockey to equal those two and one not so. Donagh Meyler is as good as any and Is Elliots go to go in the Martin pipe race (also a conditional riders race) last two years. Rides KUIPER BELT for Elliot. Drifted like a barge on his return which hinted at a future target. Poor again the last day. For most other trainers you would cross the yak out but Elliot is not any other trainer. He puts on blinkers and gets Meyler. Only a 5yo so could improve for more and at 33s I have to back him.

Bigger bet on Normal Norman with normal jockey Max Kendrick. The reasoning is in the visuals. Watch him go from 3rd last at Chelt in Nov to be beat 8l and watch him take off like a rocket after the last at Muss in his last handicap and you see a lot of ability which hints strongly that there is much more in the tank as the penny finally drops (slightly awkward head carriage those two runs.) Price is teed up beautifully coz market sees two bad beats but they were in G1 & G2 races since Muss. Focus on the two handicap runs for a small trainer with a good decent strike rate. I had him much closer to the top of the market in the most open non Grand National race of the week!

1.5 pts ew Normal Norman 25s

1 pt ew Kuiper belt

3m1 Handicap Chase

Time has run out on me and I haven't got this race done properly so thus wont have people following me in. Do however follow Simon Rowlands in. A far better punter than I will ever be and he's having an incredible few weeks (and days at Aintree). He put up Springtown Lake here

1 pt win Springtown Lake 11s

All is not lost!

A day of crossbars and tomorrow doesn't get any easier. We won't make our millions tomorrow but hopefully can stop the bleeding at least.

Novice's Hurdle:
This is a tricky puzzle in what looks to be a sub-standard renewal. Itchy Feet may have come out on top of those here that contested the Supreme but broke blood vessels that day and out again with a 3 week turnaround so i think its pretty optimistic to think he'll be seen at his best. The price on Precious Cargo bears no reflection of what he's actually done on the track to date and one I'm happy to swerve. That brings us back to an old favourite - Aramon. He's not spectacular but he is solid and seems to love racing having been on the go since the end of the summer. Wasn't much between him and Felix Desjy the last day but on the balance of what they've done I'd have a small preference still for the much more reliable Aramon. Of the rest Rouge Vif has conditions to suit here but even in a sub par renewal he should only be contesting the place money. The fly in the ointment though could be Southfield Stone who never got the credit he deserved for beating Angels Breath. Comes here fresh having skipped Cheltenham and his run that day puts him right in the reckoning here. At twice the price of the guys who battled through the Cheltenham slog he looks a great price to make the frame. His Tolworth 3rd also puts him pretty close to a fully fit Itchy Feet. Unfortunately the field has cut up so only 2 places so have to play both win only

2pts win Southfield Stone 9/1
0.5pts win Aramon 9/2

Mildmay Chase
One of those horrible races where you end up backing one horse in match where you are convinced that the other one will actually win purely off the price differential. Topofthegame should win this and was very impressive at Cheltenham putting himself to the fore as a contender for next years Gold Cup. Lostintranslation also put up a great performance when doing nothing wrong in defeat against Defi du Seuil. TOTG is probably only marginally the better horse but at this level the margins are very fine unfortunately. That said I can't let LIT go off 3-4 times the price unbacked.

1pt Lostintranslation 7/2

Melling Chase
Min wan't himself the last day and would expect him to turn around the form against Politilogue and Hell's Kitchen. When coming up with Politilogue's price it seems fairly certain they concentrated more on the fact that he finished 1.5Ls behind a below par Altior than the fact that he finished only 1.5Ls ahead of Sceau Royal which I think gives a much fairer reflection of what he achieved that day. For all that though I am never particularly keen on 2-2.5m chasers having such a quick turnaround at the highest level and the clear pick here is Waiting Patiently who is coming in off a perfect 6 week break since he had the misfortune to bump into the clock shattering Cyrname the last time out (when he had Politilogue 3Ls behind).

2pts Waiting Patiently 15/8

Sefton Hurdle
Enough known unknowns here to give Donald Rumsfeld a lifetime of insomnia. Most of the good ones here tackling 3m for the first time on ground as soft as anything they've encountered all season. So groping in the dark to a large extent like a young Joe Biden on this. Lisnagar Oscar is one of the few to have tackled the trip but was quite disappointed with his Cheltenham performance and with so many better horse stepping up in trip it seems likely a minimum of one of them will stay well enough to beat him. I've had to upgrade Champ a good bit for his run at Cheltenham despite getting beat and if staying the extra half mile he could be tough to beat but the one I prefer to take a chance on is Emitom who smashed Lisnagar Oscar at the start of the season and looks to be improving still. The Henderson horse he beat the last day giving nearly a stone seems sure to go on to better things and they were well clear of 3rd.

1pt ew Emitom 9/2

Tomorrow is a day that favours the Handicap King though than a level weights punters so tomorrows real pearls of wisdom are below

2m4 hc h

I am in line with the market on nearly everything here so no major assault. The fav is exceptionally well handicapped (last run - the next 4 have all boosted the form) to show that 6lb probably won't be enough to stop this unexposed sort. But having missed the gamble yest (12s opening show) I can't take 4s now. The horse that is impossible to gauge is Hendo's French import KOBROUK. Gambrose has long espoused the theory that the UK market bets patriotically and underrates these French imports and I agree. His old French form is top class, has won off a big break before, will like the ground and will probably drift. If you can't wait, 16s isn't bad with those positives to his name. One other horse that is worthy of a small ew play is CALTEX. Ex Gordon Elliot, he is probably a better chaser than hurdler but we have a small hurdle sample to work off and maybe he just improved with time while chasing. If he is as good over hurdles he has a chance based on his CD soft ground 2nd to Ballyhill in a handicap chase in Dec where they finished 18l clear of the rest

1 pt ew Kobrouk 16s

0.25 pts ew Caltex 66s

Topham Chase

One of the top sporting/racing/betting events of the year. A million horses going way too fast over jumbo novelty fences! Lets roll!

Angle I look for here is try to find well handicapped overpriced nags as always, but a huge added bonus is form over the fences, particularly if a front runner (huge edge over Nat fences). Janika could well destroy the race on softer ground & Call It Magic has massive chance based on his Beecher run and the rain but their prices seem right. One who isn't imo is ACTIVIAL. Gets 13lb for 19l beating off Janika 2 runs back but was far better in the Ultima the last day when beat 7l which is top handicap form. Is a clean jumping front runner too while his nemesis Janiika has tended to sit mid div which can leave you dodging more landmines than Princess Di on a charity trip. 

Another overpriced yak is from the same stable - DOUBLE SHUFFLE. As good as ever at Kempton in Feb (even if front runners got it a bit easy), handles any ground and ran a blinder upfront till failing to get the 4 miles plus in the 2017 national. Ignore his over ambitious GC attempt.

If you are a total degenerate like me and want another one in this cavalry charge, take tried and tested course specialist HIGHLAND LODGE over what is probably a more suitable trip than his beloved Beecher for him. Fell in Dec but was probably lit up after running loose beforehand. Just like the FAI board, age and length of service tend to be irrelevant over these great fences with 14 year olds even getting in on the act in recent years.

I would have more on the first two if you just want two though as I think their prices are more inaccurate than his.

1.5 pts ew Activial 25/1

1.5 pts ew Double Shuffle 33/1

1 pt ew Highland Lodge 28/1

Aintree Day1

The Thursday of Aintree is one of the great days of jumps racing - 4 grade 1's a grade 2 and a super competitive handicap which is why it makes me nearly feel dirty to admit that amidst all of this quality here I am salivating like a rabid dog in the desert sun over the Foxhunter's Chase but more of that later- I guess I should probably save the halftime circus act for later and crack on with the main events!

Manifesto Chase:
This promises to be a cracker of a contest with both La Bague Au Roi and Glen Forsa bowling along out front jumping the rest of the field into submission. Kalashnikov has never shown the same level of ability over fences as last year over hurdles and even though Mengli Khan put in his best performance to date the last time behind  Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation but seem to be just short of top class. Glen Forsa was very impressive when destroying Kalashnikov in a match back in February but he still has to step up to reach the level of form that the battle hardened LBAR showed at Kempton over Christmas when beating Topofthegame and Santini. She deliberately side stepped Cheltenham to concentrate on more suitable tracks and expect her to put in a big performance tomorrow. Experience plus her mares allowance should ensure she maintains her unbeaten record over fences.

2pts win La Bague Au Roi 7/4

Doom Bar Hurdle:
Very interesting race with 2 Cheltenham winners and the Supreme 4th dominating the betting. Have my doubts about just how strong the Triumph turned out to be after the ill fated Sir Erec broke down so hard to fancy Pentland Hills to follow up at these prices. Joseph O'Brien has the other main contenders and people are probably being overly harsh on Fakir D'Oudairies who put in a very solid performance to finish 4th in the Supreme as a 4 yo. Given the yard pecking order before Cheltenham it is unlikely that the current prices can be a fair reflection of their relative abilities and of the top 3 Fakir D'Oudairies looks the clear pick to me...I was pretty sure that was as far as I needed to go in analysing this one until I spotted a curious horse down in the rags of the tissue - Song for Somebody. He smashed up Praeceps over Christmas (who ran a decent race in 6th behind Band of Outlaws at Cheltenham) and then stepped up on that winning cosily at Warwick the last day. Still improving and flying a bit under the radar due to skipping Cheltenham the 28/1 doesn't really look a fair reflection of his chances of making a further step up.

1.5pts ew Song for Someone 28/1
0.5pts ew Fakir D'Oudairies 4/1

Aintree Bowl:
The best race to watch is often the worst to punt on and so it seems with tomorrows highlight. You could make a reasonable case of any of the main contenders which means given the open nature of the betting that the prices are probably not that far off. Bristol de Mai is probably the most talented and would be my marginal pick of the 3 - he ran a great race here last year behind Might Bite and his Haydock win was top class on top of finishing clear of CdO in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, If it wasn't for his inconsistency he would be a clear bet but will be keeping stake to a minimum at these prices. Clan des Obeaux should get closer with less of a stamina test but hard to make him significantly shorter of a horse that has beaten him fair and square on the 2 occasions he completed against him this season. Kemboy could come into things if he's committed to the front early again but despite a great run at Christmas still has to prove he is in the same class as the other 2 and being priced more on expectation than evidence so far.

0.5pt win Bristol De Mai 7/2

Aintree Hurdle:
No need to call Bletchley Park to crack this one - this is as simple as it gets. Buveur D'air  is the class of the field by a long way. At his best he has a stone on Melon and even on a bad day he'll find a way to beat him. That his main market rival is an 11 yo (who is admittedly fighting the ravages of time courageously) says it all about the strength of depth here. Not quite compensation for losing his Cheltenham crown but can show he is still the 2m hurdler to beat here.

3pts Buveur D'air 10/11

Foxhunters:
Finally the one you've all been waiting for, an amateur rider's race at lightening speed over the National fences. A race where you check the jockeys name before you check the horse's because half of these guys couldn't win on Pegasus himself - for them getting home with their collarbone intact is an achievement in itself and to a certain extent their main goals from the outset. We have 27 horses but once you've drawn a line through any of the jockey names that sound like the slightly dotty woman your granny used to have over for tea or some lord who is out for a day on the hunt before launching his Tory leadership challenge, the game gets a whole lot easier. Once you've whittled this down to about 8 names you then scan to the bottom of the oddschecker page and see that bookies, in an attempt to keep peoples attention after the superstars have finished up for the day, have somehow decided to pay 5 places! I'd find it hard to fault the logic of backing all the remaining horses on your list each way on those terms but I can sense the grumbles in the gallery at suggesting such a scattergun approach so I will reluctantly pass over Road to Rome and Kruzlinnin and stick to the old reliables of JJ Codd and Derek O'Connor. Ucello Conti has looked great all year until never really getting involved at Cheltenham. Knows his way around these fences and although 2m 5f is a little on the short side he should have the class to get involved. Hopefully he'll get sent to the front alongside R2R and avoid the mayhem in behind. Trip is less of an issue with Burning Ambition as he looked like he didn't quite stay in Cheltenham last year when sent off favourite. Both have jockeys to get them round in contention and hopefully one of them can get the job done. Further down the list in the realms of the lords and ladies there is one horse who should also be nibbled at at a big price. Greensalt was 3rd last year at a big price and aims to repeat the trick this year at a similar price - at 40/1 I wouldnt want to bet against it.

1.5pts ew Ucello Conti 8/1
1.5pts ew Burning Ambition 5/1
0.5pts ew Greensalt 40/1

For the Red Rum I'll pass you over to the Handicap King for the solution:

We go back to some of our old Chelt reliables here for the selections - wind ops and a Nicky trained horse. The Hendo trained horse is Theinval who 'saves his best for this time of year' it seems. The beauty of this is that his handicap mark magically tumbles back to a winnable one again each yr- amazing that! He was 2nd in this last yr off 5 lower and beat 3l - doesn't sound great until you see that was on soft ground and he was 18l clear of the third! Previous year he was also second off 2lb lower. He also 'finds himself' only 2lb higher than the mark he won at at Ayr last year. All in, 'his time of year', on a course he loves (won handicap hurdle here at 2016 fez too) and is back to a perfect mark. Went off 8s & 6s on BF the last two years. Hammer him

The other one is well travelled Azzuri who is in his 4th home. He is a front runner who loves good ground and has just had a wind op after 3 bizarrely close together runs in February which conveniently dropped him 12lb! He's now back at the mark he won a Killarney handicap chase by 10l off when in Richard Obriens care. This all reeks of a Ch'tibello style plot by the same connections. Get involved. 

The current fav is the Pipe trained Eamon an Cnoic. Trip seemed too much for him over 2m4 chelt. However he has yet to prove he can do it off this mark at this trip while the above two have had their year geared towards this and are on perfect marks. Cant have Brelan D'as at a speed track like this at his price

2.5 pts ew Theinval 

1.5 pts ew Azzuri

Pic-ture perfect

Just back in from a day of witnessing the action in the flesh. Some great racing and some great stories but great stories won't pay the bills so need to get things back on track tomorrow with a few winners. Will be brief because it's already been a long day.

Triumph;
The fav here is very good and looked a phenomenal talent but at odds on it is probably a little short against the field. The interesting horse here is Pic D'Orhy who had form in France that wasn't far off what Sir Eric has been posting and although he hasn't been seen in the UK since moving to Nicholls yard he does have previous in getting these French imports primed to go first time out at the festival. At 10/1 looks a much better option. Of the big prices the Mullins second string might have a decent bit of improvement left. Won an egg and spoon race down in Clonmel pretty easily the last day and might just improve enough to sneak a place

1.5pts ew Pic D'Orhy 10/1
0.25pts ew French Made 50/1

County Hurdle:
I rarely get this excited about a handicap! See the Kings section below

Albert Bartlett:
A race to side with the English on with the main Irish hopes looking pretty weak (although Derrinross couldn't have asked for more ideal conditions.) Lisnagar Oscar looks to have improved more than Dickie Diver since he beat him a head 2 races back and think he can just about shade it against a very solid yardstick in Birchdale, but probably not a whole lot between the 3 of them.

1pt ew Lisnagar Oscar 13/2

Gold Cup:
Presenting Percy has the fairytale story of the race but he also has a fairytale price - impossible to back a horse in a Gold Cup without seeing him jump a fence for 12 months. The Pat Kelly genius may deliver but I'll pay to see it. Comfortably the star horse of the year has been Clan des Obeaux and no way he should be 3rd fav coming into this. Unfortunately though I do have to tip up a second horse here. My Pavlovian reaction to hearing Bristol de Mai's name is generally to curl up in a ball shaking - he has unlimited talent but shows it fleetingly, almost always just after I've given up hope that the abillity is still in there lurking somewhere. He has perfect conditions tomorrow and put up a monster performance at the start of the year in the Betfair Chase which on its own should make his price too big. It kills me to back him but I can't stop myself on this one.

1.5pts ew Clan des Obeaux 11/2
0.75pts ew Bristol de Mai 25/1

Foxhunters:
Caid du Berlais wasn't far off last year and has been in sparkling form since

1.5pts ew Caid du Berlais

County Hurdle

Another handicap, another set of favs i dislike! Whiskey Sour beat 3l off 2 higher last year. Hasn't improved on that run on RPRs since so cant be having the 11/2 there. Ch'tibello angle is obvious with the wind op but still 11lb higher than his only ever handicap win. We are going down the headgear route again, this time wth Western Ryder. Beat 4l in greatwood and Ladbroke and up 5 lb for that. Rise is negated by Harry Teal's claim. What might make the difference is the first time blinkers. Will be in the mix but may come up short. However he must be backed though when you see the price. Should be around a 14s shot in my book, but youre getting 25s on exchange tonight. Hopefully that will translate to shops tomorrow for those without Betfair account. 

Also backing Leoncavello. The blog creator and I have been waiting about 3 years for this dog to have his day and i think it has arrived. No longer hamstrung by the garbage amateur that used to ride him and now in the care of Dr Newland. His galway hurdle third is red hot form, hes had a chase run since which can be ignored and i think Newland has been waiting to pick his day as hes been entered in the Betfair & Imperial Cup lately. The Doc presses go tomorrow. Get involved

1.5 pts ew Leoncavello 20s or 18s is ok

1.5 pts ew Western Ryder 25s on Bf is possible

Grand Annual

Must admit 2m handicap chasers are not my strongest interest but i think i can still spot a plot horse with great CD form. Le Prezien streaked home last year by 4.5 lengths and is only a lb higher tomorrow! Since then hes run in a Grade 1, G2, a hurdle and jumped like a piano at Sandown the last day. Worth noting he also put in a horror round last year in his run before this. Thats not how to prep a horse but it clearly shows Nicholls can correct this horses errors. His jumping the last day is probably factored into the price too but even still, he should not be fifth in the betting after the manner of last years win, his plot job prep up until the last day and the form of Nicholl's yard this week and over the last month.

If the rain arrives in the morning and his price drifts a bit, Top Gamble has an incredible CD record and also has had his jumping problems. If you can get 25s after some rain he is worth adding

2 pts ew Le Prezien

.75 ew Top Gamble 25s

Martin Pipe Hurdle

Top of the market is littered with lightly enough raced sorts who could have a good few pounds in hand. Same comments apply to a horse who is 33/1 though - Style Garde. Only his 6th hurdle run in Uk and trained by Hendo. He stayed on very stoutly to be 2nd in last years Fred Winter at 2m. PU at Aintree and got the Hendo special - the wind op! Chasing this year (to as gd a standard as over hurdles but all at 2m) except for one hurdle run over 2m3 behind Not That Fuisse. All his runs discuss his need to settle. If he does he could improve a huge amount. Ned Curtis rides and would be first choice ahead of non stable regular Richard Patrick who rides Pym at half the price. This horse has not turned up here with one hurdle run by accident in Hendo's care and has gone very close with ones stepping up in trip in this race before. He might not settle and thus not get home but many at the head of the market have huge question marks also and very few have the experience of a Cheltenham fez cavalry charge in their locker. 

2.5 pts ew Style Garde 33s

We're on the road again

The Handicap King living up to his name so far with another 33/1 winner today! Only half way though so need to push on.

JLT:
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil  have been pretty evenly matched all season but I think a better stamina test on a left handed course will actually play into Lostintranslation's hands. He jumped left across all his jumps the last day on a right handed track having jumped straight as an arrow the time before back at Cheltenham. I also get the impression that DdS is a 2m horse who can't jump fences at 2m pace which is why they pushed him up in trip after getting taken out of his jumping comfort zone the first time out. The real danger to Lostintranslation is probably the controversial Vinndication who supposedly wasn't running before making a Lazarus like recovery 2 days later. He was backed into favourite against the top 2 here last day out and despite running quite flat wasn't beaten all that far. If it was all a scam to let them get on at bigger prices he could be a real danger here but happy to side with LIT with a tiny saver on Vinn just in case.

2pts ew Lostintranslation 4/1
.25pts win Vinndication 8/1

Ryanair:
The best horse here is obviously Footpad but the fact that he lines up here rather than in the Champion Chase shows he is clearly not 100% and as such over a trip longer than optimal he is impossible to back. Frodon has been impressive this season but never seems to hold his form into the spring and this is a hotter contest than he's faced so far this season. Monalee is solid but I think will again find 1 or 2 too good for him. Which leaves a horse than on better ground would have been a contender in a Gold Cup and a combination of softer ground and owner connections means he lines up here instead - Road to Respect is about as rock solid as they come and possibly this is his optimal trip having won the Brown handicap over course and distance 2 years ago. Consistently there or thereabouts in G1's and looks a very solid option here.

2pts ew Road to Respect 9/2

Stayers Hurdle:
Paisley Park has dominated the stayers division this year having made huge progress since last season. That said 2/1 doesn't seem overly enticing despite the time he clocked the last day in the Cleeve. Faugheen is a legend but at 11 is too short with performance levels more erratic. Supasundae is rock solid but seems destined to always be a bridesmaid. The horse that really appeals here is Kilbricken Storm who won a solid Albert Bartlett over course and distance last year and is being sent back hurdling after an aborted attempt at a chasing career. Black Ops has a similar profile and shouldn't be discounted but KS just about gets the nod between them at similar prices.

1pt ew Kilbricken Storm 14/1

Mare's Novices:
Plenty of talking horses here but hard to believe that Sancta Simona is a 20/1 shot having been the stables first string in a G1 against the boys in Leopardstown at Christmas where she only found stable mate Aramon too good for her. Probably not as much between her and JP's other runner as the market makes out here.

.5pts ew Sancta Simona 20/1


And now for the good stuff!

Pertemps

Elliots yoke is raging fav but was beat off this mark in m pipe last year although wanted better gallop. Clearly just did enough to qualify the last day but price is way too short. I had Not Many Left & Abolitionist second & third favs in my own book. NML is Jessies but not bothered that Power rides Walk to Freedom. judging by his December entry in Carlisle this has been the plan for a long time. Beat a small but good quality field in his qualifier win in Huntington and is totally unexposed. The way he stormed up Navan hill last Jan in mud suggests this course will be no problem and he gave Cuneo an almighty beating that day. 

Abolitionist is on his second hurdles run for Dr Newland after being a top handicapper in Ireland. Won the Leinster National over 3m in mud up Naas hill off this mark in his Irish days. Moonwalked home in his qualifier and ran as if the last day was a pipe opener over fences. Will end up in the Grand National but not a bad pot to pick up en route

2 pts ew Not Many Left 16s

2 pts ew Abolitionist 16s

Kim Muir

I wrote on Tuesday to lump BTTT (now a NR so cash back) and No Comment. Disappointed DOC rides Ted's yak (2 error riddled rounds here and at Leop at C'mas) but still want NC onside. Really against most at top of market based on ground/trip and think the fav is worst one of the week. Claims are based on a run here 3 years ago and a comeback in an awful conditions race. Huge chance of a bounce also that seems to be ignored completely too. My dad & few mates will choke on their coffee but Squouateur is a bet at what will be a big price on Betfair. His form is the alphabet but the bottom line is he was a close third here last year. Yes Gordon ran him out of the country but Ben Haslem has won with 3 of the 6 head cases/timebombs that JP has sent him this year. Last year he was 7/2, this year you can have 40s plus on the machine

Other arrow is Ah Littleluck. Small trainer but a Grand National winner in Ire. Angle here is pure and utter stamina and a chase career that looks like it was built to handicap him well - most runs well short of his minimum trip of 3m. Re watch his Aintree hurdle run last year and you see the peleton close on him after making the running but he battles on to come back for more in third. Or his win the day the Irish National shouldnt have been run! Huge issue is his two unseats so far. But at 66s you're not going to get every box ticked. Worth paying the toll incase last years winning jockey (race for amateurs)  doesnt fall off

1.5 pts ew Sqouoateur (betfair if possible)

1.5 pts ew Ah Littleluck 66s

BONUS RACE- 355 Hexham

2 pts ew Total Assets 7/1

4m kelso run is form that has worked out very well. Trip too sharp the last day but stayed on very nicely

 

410 Chelt - name changes every yr!

Happy to oppose the CD form of the two favs who had only 8 opponents but are being credited as if it was the usual field of 16 good handicappers that that race often is. Going with polar ends of the experience spectrum here - River Wlyde hasnt faced more than 6 rivals in his three chases which is a recipe for disaster in a scrap like this. However, if he can get into a rhythm he could be way ahead of his mark based on the beating he gave Hells Kitchen and he had the measure of Activial the last day and that one bounced back to run very well Tues. Win bet only incase his jumping collapses. 

Other one is last years second Splash of Ginge. Ignore any run of his that doesnt say soft and 2m4 beside it, therefore all of this year. Two of his last 4 goes here under ideal conditions have produced runs good enough to win this weak renewal. Two others were stink. But at 28s, two in four looks perfectly acceptable!

1.5 pt win River Wylde 14s

1 pt ew Splash of Ginge 28s

 

Play it again Sam

Good start but still a long way to go.

Ballymore Hurdle:
Feel like Champ has always been a bit overhyped since getting so close to Vinndication on his hurdles debut last year and I don't think his name helps keep expectations under control. For me this is one where the Irish hold the aces. The Lawlor's hurdle in Nass looked a decent race and even though Battleoverdoyen has done nothing wrong all season including when putting that race to bed pretty easily after the last the horse that really stood out that day was Sam's Profile. He made a couple of mistakes got bumped got properly roughed up and kept coming back for more and when everything else was going backwards he was closing all the way to the line. I actually wanted to see him step up to 3m but in these conditions the pace should slow to help improve his jumping and with a premium on toughness they don't look to come much tougher. I like them both but with SP over twice the price of BOD he's the main pick with a little saver on BOD.

Sam Profile 11/1 1.5pts ew
Battleoverdoyen 4/1 .5pts ew

RSA Chase:
It's hard to fault Delta Work who has gone from strength to strength since winning the Pertemps here last year including beating Le Richbourg who would have been a very short fav in the Arkle but for injury. That said one of the performances of the year came from Topofthegame who got left at the start by 20Ls before closing to go down by only 3Ls to Defi de Sueil the JLT fav. His run behind La Bague Au Roi over Christmas wasn't too shabby either. Santini was closing to the line that day but hasn't had an ideal preparation since yet is priced shorter in the market. Of the bigger prices one I expect to outrun their price is Drovers Lane - last seen beating todays 4m winner Le Breuil here over 2m4f in November before having a wind op and being put away for this and I expect a big step up from him tomorrow.

2pts ew Topofthegame 4/1
0.5pts ew Drovers Lane 20/1

Champion Chase:
Hard to really put anything up here. Altior will win and Min will come second. I guess if you get evens on Min betting w/o Altior its not the worst interest bet in the race.

Cross Country:
Tiger Roll looked very good the last day at Navan surprising even his trainer with his well being. If all is well he'll be winning at the festival for the 4th time. That said the best value is in behind him opposing the other Irish runner's for the place market. This used be a race that the Irish owned but this is starting to change of late with strong challenges from both the home contingent and the French raiders. There was an absolute mountain of cash for Amazing Comedy earlier in the winter when he came over for a sighter. Granted he will be carrying 19lbs more this time around but it still seems like they have a lot of confidence that 4th that day wasn't the peak of his running and he'll have his normal jockey back on board tomorrow yet is being quoted in places at 40/1. Of the home challenge Fact of the Matter looks the clear pick and with a win over C&D back in December he is also a bit forgotten about at 18/1

Amazing Comedy .75pts ew 40/1
Fact of the Matter .5pts ew 18/1

Bumper:
Favourite looks very short having won a slow bike race the last day. The proven form is with Envoi Allen and Meticulous. Seems like the second horse should have more scope for improvement and is twice the price so will have a nibble there.

Meticulous .75pts ew 8/1

Handicap Hotshots:

Coral Cup

Race centres around Ruby, Willie & Uradel who will improve for the step up in trip. However everything has its price and 5/1 is far too short here for a horse that is clearly well regarded at home judged on BSPs but is in arguably the most competitive handicap of the year which is littered with plots and more headgear than an NFL game!

The betting angle here comes courtesy of CD form and our beloved wind ops. These procedures to improve breathing now have to be publicised. I dont have the exact nos to hand but read them lately and the strike rate off a breathing op are not as hot as was first envisaged by punters. However they definitely have to be factored in. We saw this yesterday in the case of Beware the bear who looked totally exposed before his one, and he won two Cheltenham handicaps since! Same trainer, same op, same cd angle - William Henry & Burbank. Beat 2l & 7l in this last year on same ground. Both had one disappointing run this year and a wind op since. CD form is golden here and Hendo can clearly cut a horse's throat well so their prices are a long way off what i made them. More on WH as he did finish ahead last year when 8/1 Co-fav

2 pts ew William Henry 33/1

1.5 pts ew Burbank 50/1

Fred Winter/Boodles/Whatever they call it

Impossible race. Again a few cattle & sheep worth of leather straps & fluffy pieces going on first time here on horses with very few runs, and hardly any who will have encountered this sort of cavalry charge. Add in that many have just arrived from France and you have my least fav betting hcap of the year! Some guys specialise in French racing and these sort of races. One such man on twitter is @Jinksmarmaduke. He rates Fanfan Du Seuil a bet here so thats good enough for me

0.5 pts ew Fanfan Du Seuil 16/1

Let's Rok

So the blog is going to be set up a little differently this year. My focus is almost entirely on the level weights racing and generally the handicap tips are only really an after thought and in truth probably not that great. So to plug this big gap we've recruited the Handicap King who has been smashing up these races for the past few years to give his top fancies and hopefully boost our profits even further over the week.

I guess the one big thing to mention before cracking into it is how much things have changed over the last few years in terms of finding value. Usually on the Monday of Cheltenham you used to find me hauling a bag of cash around town hitting every bookie within walking distance to hoover up as much value as possible. Those days are sadly gone and after a cursory look around town tonight it was quickly back to my laptop to get my bets down. Now they likely will have some on the spot specials tomorrow but not a lot i can do to guide you on them. For those of you lucky enough to still have online bookie accounts that take e/w bets there is still some great value out there - Will Hill paying on the first 7 home in the supreme and 6 places available in some of the handicaps. I've put up horse below but being patient with a few of them til around 11am tomorrow could be your best strategy as between 11-1 you will get pretty tight markets as various horse get boosted with the bookies looking to get peoples attention.

So on we go!

Supreme:
Quite an open race this year and you could make a reasonable case for 6 or 7. What is not reasonable though is how the Irish runners are priced up - last day in Leopardstown Klassical Dream beat Aramon in a photo finish with Vision D'Honnour 6Ls back yet somehow tomorrow Aramon is 3 times the price of KD and a bigger price even than VDH. Seems to be a horse the market never likes with no money for him either before his Christmas G1 win or for his photo 2nd at the Dublin racing festival. He looked a supreme horse that day despite being beaten and I would take him to just about reverse the placings with KD who I had been looking forward to betting on in the Ballymore before getting re-routed here. My best guess is that Aramon works like a pig at home and only ever comes alive at the track given how surprised the stable has been with his progress. My one concern with him is that I think we may already have seen close to his best - in terms of making a big leap forward I think that we may have seen that in December when he stepped up on his Fairyhouse 3rd to destroy the G1 by 10Ls however there is probably still some more to be seen from him and at a double digit price I will definitely want some ew money on him. Al Dancer is another who we have probably already seen close to his best and although I expect him to run a solid race I think he will find 1 or 2 here too good for him - better horses have won the Betfair hurdle  on higher marks and still come up short in the Supreme than him. Fakir Doudairis looked very impressive the last day in Cheltenham and looks another with a big future but the Supreme is a harder race to win than the triumph even with the wait allowance. I wouldnt put anyone off backing him but for me his price looks about right. The one really exciting horse in the race though is the longtime antepost favourite Angels Breath. This is a horse that I really do expect to make a big leap forward from the last day where I actually thought he rallied impressively at the end showing good temperament and despite a disrupted run up of yard closures and flu jabs he ran pretty much as fast as anything else this year. A fully fit AB could be an absolute beast and despite being edged out of favouritism he looks clearly the most likely winner to me.

1pt ew Aramon 16/1
2pts ew Angels Breath 9/2

Arkle:
So I had a decent cut at Hardline for this a couple of weeks back when he was still a double figure price so I will likely hold off on betting again tomorrow but if I hadn't already backed him I think he still represents the most likely winner tomorrow. Apart from a curious last run he has been in great form all winter giving Us and Them a 10L beating at Navan (which was further than he ever got beat by Le Richbourg) and stepping up in trip he saw off Getabird and given it was Limerick he is also one of the few horses to have won in mud this winter - he probably got a little lucky that day with Getabird making a mistake at the last but once he got half a length up he was not for passing. As usual he will be held up off the pace and don't think anyone will be coming up the hill better. Worth mentioning that Navan is a left handed undulating track with a stiff uphill finish in case that sounds familiar! I generally swerve any horse who is coming here off a short turnaround particularly where they put up a fast time as elite 2m chasers need time to recover from the exertions of pinging fences at such speed which is the main reason I so readily discount Glen Forsa and  Duc de Geneviere but in truth there are a few other holes you could pick in their form and preparation. Kalashnikov has never excelled this season although almost certainly not as bad as he looked the last day but the yards form hasnt gotten any better since so happy to pass on him. Paloma BLue has a bit of class but the jumping errors are hard to ignore. The one other horse I would actually worry about is Lalor who was very impressive both in Aintree last season and Cheltenham first time out this year. Hasn't gone to plan since but  if getting back to that level will give them all something to think about. Given the stable form I'll have a little saver win only on this to limit my losses if Hardline comes up short.

Hardline 1.5pts ew 5/1
Lalor .5pts win 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
A cracking race to watch not a cracking race to bet on though and I will be keeping stakes to a minimum at these prices. Apples Jade has been burning up the track at every distance this season and not hard to see why she is favourite although this is a very different task to what she has been faced with previously. They seem to think they have the issue of her going into season under control this season using a marble but that probably does add a bit of volatility to her performance than needs to be allowed for. Buveur D'air is a 2 time champ although probably been 2 years since he's had to be at his best that said he is the slickest jumper has a good cruising speed and beating Samcro in the autumn was probably his best performance in 18 months. Laurina could be anything but is a horrible price for a horse who has only ever raced on the gallops of Closutton. I just about side with Buveur D'air but worth flagging that most of the people I respect are in the Apples Jade camp. I think the best play here is to be patient - at some point tomorrow there will be 3/1 available on Buveur and taking that e/w is incredible value. Both AJ and Laurina could win but have much more volatile profiles than Buveur who will almost certainly run to somewhere in the mid to high 160s which is almost certain to place. If you get 3/1 ew 1/4 odds  you get a shot to nothing and that seems the best play here.

Wait for Buveur D'air to hit 3/1 then 2pts ew

Mares Hurdle:
My biggest antepost bet ever has been on Roksana here and she is still phenomenal value. A close second behind Santini in a G1 novice hurdle on soft ground at the end of last season the Skelton's have been gentle with here since. Wasn't fully fit when 3rd behind Buveur D'air and Vision de Flos the last day and should progress nicely from there. Benie des Diuex seems a little over-rated on what she achieved last year but possibly has progressed since then, if anyone can produce a horse from nowhere for Cheltenham WPM is the man but taking a lot on trust to be playing here at odds on.

Roksana 3pts ew 8/1

National Hunt Chase:
Market looks clearly wrong here and seems people more concerned about offering a big price for the last leg of a WPM acca than actually pricing the market correctly. OK Corral was 3Ls ahead of Ballyward last year in the Albert Bartlett and always looked like further would suit. Has taken well to fences and was foot perfect when effectively given a schooling session by DOC at Warwick. He should be favourite here and is a clear bet for me against the chalk.

OK Corral 1.5pts ew 4/1

And now for the winners:

Ultima Chase

When God speaks - listen - no, not Gary Twigg, but Simon Rowlands of the Irish Field. He told us in his column post Christmas abut how good the time and sectionals were that Lake View Lad did in his win on Stephens Day. The form of that race has also been boosted by Crosspark & Wakanda. Travels well and is very solid jumper which are very beneficial in a race like this. No evidence to suggest he is finished improving. More rain the better.

A race of this nature requires another poke - Beware the Bear fits the bill. Had looked exposed until New Years Day when he won very nicely over CD after a wind op and change of tactics. Whether he can/wants to dominate from the front in this big a field is unknown, but if he cant lie up he has lots of stamina to stay on in the mud like last year and the wind op angle means there may be more to come. 

Recomm: 1.5pts ew Lake View Lad 22/1

1 pt ew Beware the Bear 16/1

Close Brothers Chase

Novice handicaps not my favourite punting races due to smaller amount of form than usual to access over chosen obstacle so smaller stakes here.  The market has spotted the more obvious ones and acted accordingly. One that is underrated though is Quamino. The improvement angle here comes from the step up in trip. He finished his last two races very strongly and we've seen him handle further before (and Nolan had him entered in 2 x 3m hcap hurdles last yr). The race he won at Leopardstown last time out is a very competitive one each year and only a 6lb higher mark is very fair. Soft ground was no problem in hurdle career

0.5 pts ew Quamino 22/1

Early Bird Catches the Worm.....

Kim Muir Chase - Thursday

Act early and act often here by betting before tomorrow morning's decs come out and pile into the two horses who should be favs here. Its a dream scenario. Couldnt be more against the fav of Elliots who was pumped two years ago in this and is being backed on the back of an ok comeback in an awful race last time and some form from 3 years back. Also, most other serious contenders cant/dont want/have never seen mud - Sky Pirate, Touch Kick, Treacle Tart, Just a Sting & Its All Guesswork. The two who should head the market are BACK TO THE THATCH and NO COMMENT. BTTT is a mud lark with stamina whose last two runs have received huge boosts from RamSes de Teille & Chef d'oeuvre. No Comment has a Timeform P and looks laid out for a big spring handicap after purely not staying 4m here last year.