OK we are back to +98.54pts after Rooney and Brych delivered last night although it is not often I am disappointed to see Man U concede a last minute goal.
Tonight again we have a pretty reasonable ref in the Arsenal Barcelona game. I also think with all the talk of a game of free flowing football and the goals Barca have been scoring recently the total goals line for this game has been pushed too high. Average goals fro a game like this is about 2.2 and even allowing for this game to be a bit on the high side a spread of 2.8-3 seems too big.
Sell booking points 0.15pts per point @ 36 (sportingindex)
Sell total goals 1pt per goal @ 2.8 (sportingindex)
Wednesday, 31 March 2010
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Draw some comfort
Pretty poor weekend but there is plenty of European football this week to get us over that hiccup. As in the last round we will be concentrating on the tendancy for more draws in the first legs of these ties:
0.3pt Yankee Draw in each CL QF (23/10, 9/4, 12/5, 3/1 - Coral)
3pts Draw Lyon v Brodeaux @9/4 (tote, Coral) - looks the most evenly matched game and given the high proportion of draws in the French league anyway this looks massive.
2pts Draw Bayern v Man Utd @ 23/10 (tote, Coral) - a score draw would probably suit both sides. United will want to get an away goal and despite their limitations Bayern at home are always a tough prospect especially given some of the individual talent they have.
2pts Draw Arsenal v Barcelona @ 12/5 (Coral) - not going to be the cavalier goal fest that people expect - Barcelona can grind out results when necessary and Guardiola knows a draw is a good resilt to bring home with the second leg in the Camp Nou.
2pts Draw Inter v CSKA @ 4.7 (Betfair) - Inter are way too short here. CSKA do not get the credit they deserve and have turned into a decent team the past few seasons. Also since the Chelsea game Inter have been on a rotten run of form.
First leg games also have less bookings than average and although the referee in the Utd game is relatively card happy Brych who refs the Lyon game has reffed 13 games at UEFA and FIFA level during which he has issued a paltry 21 yellows and 1 red. I assume the line is only so high as it is being priced as a derby game.
Sell bookings @ 44 for 0.3pts a card (Sporting Index)
0.75pts e/w Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4/1 (Paddy Power) - has carried the Utd team this season and if they do get the win the bookies expect it's likely he will be on the scoresheet. Add in the PP special that if Utd come from behind to win they will refund you bet - also I think they are paying double odds if he scores twice but I'm not 100% on that.
0.3pt Yankee Draw in each CL QF (23/10, 9/4, 12/5, 3/1 - Coral)
3pts Draw Lyon v Brodeaux @9/4 (tote, Coral) - looks the most evenly matched game and given the high proportion of draws in the French league anyway this looks massive.
2pts Draw Bayern v Man Utd @ 23/10 (tote, Coral) - a score draw would probably suit both sides. United will want to get an away goal and despite their limitations Bayern at home are always a tough prospect especially given some of the individual talent they have.
2pts Draw Arsenal v Barcelona @ 12/5 (Coral) - not going to be the cavalier goal fest that people expect - Barcelona can grind out results when necessary and Guardiola knows a draw is a good resilt to bring home with the second leg in the Camp Nou.
2pts Draw Inter v CSKA @ 4.7 (Betfair) - Inter are way too short here. CSKA do not get the credit they deserve and have turned into a decent team the past few seasons. Also since the Chelsea game Inter have been on a rotten run of form.
First leg games also have less bookings than average and although the referee in the Utd game is relatively card happy Brych who refs the Lyon game has reffed 13 games at UEFA and FIFA level during which he has issued a paltry 21 yellows and 1 red. I assume the line is only so high as it is being priced as a derby game.
Sell bookings @ 44 for 0.3pts a card (Sporting Index)
0.75pts e/w Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4/1 (Paddy Power) - has carried the Utd team this season and if they do get the win the bookies expect it's likely he will be on the scoresheet. Add in the PP special that if Utd come from behind to win they will refund you bet - also I think they are paying double odds if he scores twice but I'm not 100% on that.
Saturday, 27 March 2010
Weekend Racing
Dubai World Cup takes centre stage this week - the biggest grandstand in the world for one of the smallest tracks in the world! You go figure - sure to make for a few surprises as it rewards position rather than talent. But we'll try to pick a few winners none the less.
1pt win Vision d'Etat @ 7.6 (Betfair): a very good HK Cup winner. The doubts over his participation are obviously a worry but at this price we will gladly take it.
1.5pts Rocket Man @ 9/4 (Betfred): This horse is the business. The Godolphin/Frankie presence on Gayego is making value all around here. This is the most likely to take advantage.
1pt e/w Courageous Cat @ 12/1 (general): Connections aren't worried about Previs's wide draw but I sure as hell am. On a tight track like this he will have to do a lot of extra work to get to the front. As a result CC can take advantage having run a cracking race at the Breeders Cup to get within 1/2L of Goldikova. He has a reasonable draw here and can take advantage.
1pt e/w Gitano Hernando 5/1 (Ladbrokes): Not a superstar just a very good horse and can be a danger here with a good draw and a tendancy to show early.
1pt win Calusa Crystal @ 3/1 (Lads, VC): Warmed up for this with a facile win in Warwik a fortnight ago - unlike her main oppostion who ran a very good but tough race coming second to Quevega at Cheltenham over hurdles.
That race is off soon so will post update of later races in a few mins
OK just one to add
1pt Watson Lake 9/2 (WH): The only horse here that has really been kept fresh for this and can get his reward. Has run to a reasonable level for a long time without ever challenging the big boys but good enough to take advantage of a few tired performances here.
1pt win Vision d'Etat @ 7.6 (Betfair): a very good HK Cup winner. The doubts over his participation are obviously a worry but at this price we will gladly take it.
1.5pts Rocket Man @ 9/4 (Betfred): This horse is the business. The Godolphin/Frankie presence on Gayego is making value all around here. This is the most likely to take advantage.
1pt e/w Courageous Cat @ 12/1 (general): Connections aren't worried about Previs's wide draw but I sure as hell am. On a tight track like this he will have to do a lot of extra work to get to the front. As a result CC can take advantage having run a cracking race at the Breeders Cup to get within 1/2L of Goldikova. He has a reasonable draw here and can take advantage.
1pt e/w Gitano Hernando 5/1 (Ladbrokes): Not a superstar just a very good horse and can be a danger here with a good draw and a tendancy to show early.
1pt win Calusa Crystal @ 3/1 (Lads, VC): Warmed up for this with a facile win in Warwik a fortnight ago - unlike her main oppostion who ran a very good but tough race coming second to Quevega at Cheltenham over hurdles.
That race is off soon so will post update of later races in a few mins
OK just one to add
1pt Watson Lake 9/2 (WH): The only horse here that has really been kept fresh for this and can get his reward. Has run to a reasonable level for a long time without ever challenging the big boys but good enough to take advantage of a few tired performances here.
Weekend Soccer
Wheels came off midweek but a Villa goals just kept us above the double mark at +100.56pts. Two things to mention before I start. Firstly I was wrong about goal difference being a deciding factor in La Liga which could be key to some betting decisions in later weeks (in the case of a tie head to head is the deciding factor.) Also although I haven't put a huge amount of betfair prices on here I have been allocating full credit in the case of a win ignoring commission - in future the max commission of 5% will be deducted to winnings.
1.5pts Stoke @ 4.0 (Betfair): They are 9pts clear with a game in hand of a West Ham team who are looking a shambles and at this stage you have to think the players just want to end the drama and get themselves a new boss - ignore David Gold's 'vote of confidence' and expect to see Zola down the dole office on Thursday.
1pt Everton 11/10 (general): 17pts clear of Wolves and finally starting to build a bit of momentum. They have scored nearly twice as many goals as Wolves this season and that can be decisive today.
2pts Sevilla @ 12/5 (VC): Despite their recent slump Sevilla are still 8pts clear of Villareal. A change in coach can see them regain the winning thread.
1pt Everton 11/10 (general): 17pts clear of Wolves and finally starting to build a bit of momentum. They have scored nearly twice as many goals as Wolves this season and that can be decisive today.
2pts Sevilla @ 12/5 (VC): Despite their recent slump Sevilla are still 8pts clear of Villareal. A change in coach can see them regain the winning thread.
1pt Draw Chelsea v Villa @ 5.2(Betfair): Chelsea cannot be 2/5 for a game against another team fighting for a CL spot however the fact that M. O'Neill has never won a PL game in March - EVER does slightly put us off backing Villa. It is obviously a statistical anomaly but there could be some truth in it when you consider that O'Neill always tends to be working with small squads of players that over -perform for large parts of the season and then perhaps hit a wal due to lack of rotation. Having eliminated both other options I guess it makes sense to have a small interest in Villa grinding out another draw at big odds.
Weekend racing to follow
Weekend racing to follow
Wednesday, 24 March 2010
Double It!
We've finally doubled our cash breaing through to +105.23pts to date. Some midweek football today:
1pt Man City @ 2.14 (Betfair): Pretty marginal call but 8pts more with one game less played make City slight value here. This is a true test of whether they have what it takes to grab that final CL place.
0.5pts e/w Tevez to score first @ 9/2 (Paddy Power): I was just going to back him to score anytime but PP are currently paying double odds if you selection score twice, triple for a hat-trick etc. By my rough calculations he has scored in 12 of his last 18 games (18goals in total). H ehas only scored 1st on 3 occasions but the value on the special plus the 6/4 we are getting on him scoring anytime makes this a play.
1pt Tevez to score anytime @7/5 (expect): see above
1pt Birmingham @ 3/1 (Coral): 9pts adirft of them in the league and best price of 11/10? Not for me. Brimingham have benefited from being tight at the back this season and can grind out another result here at a nice price.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half - Barca v Osasuna @ 21/10 (sportingodds): Our usual play when Barca play someone from the bottom half of the table at home. We have reduced our stake due to the fact that with goal difference all thats splitting the top 2 there may be no easing off if Barca start to score early.
1.5pts e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2(Will Hill): best price of 4/7 to score anytime however with this bet we get 5/6 on that eventuality (well one of the first 5 goals anyway).
1pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): taking a slightly worse price than SJ for the special offer if he scores more than one.
1pt Man City @ 2.14 (Betfair): Pretty marginal call but 8pts more with one game less played make City slight value here. This is a true test of whether they have what it takes to grab that final CL place.
0.5pts e/w Tevez to score first @ 9/2 (Paddy Power): I was just going to back him to score anytime but PP are currently paying double odds if you selection score twice, triple for a hat-trick etc. By my rough calculations he has scored in 12 of his last 18 games (18goals in total). H ehas only scored 1st on 3 occasions but the value on the special plus the 6/4 we are getting on him scoring anytime makes this a play.
1pt Tevez to score anytime @7/5 (expect): see above
1pt Birmingham @ 3/1 (Coral): 9pts adirft of them in the league and best price of 11/10? Not for me. Brimingham have benefited from being tight at the back this season and can grind out another result here at a nice price.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half - Barca v Osasuna @ 21/10 (sportingodds): Our usual play when Barca play someone from the bottom half of the table at home. We have reduced our stake due to the fact that with goal difference all thats splitting the top 2 there may be no easing off if Barca start to score early.
1.5pts e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2(Will Hill): best price of 4/7 to score anytime however with this bet we get 5/6 on that eventuality (well one of the first 5 goals anyway).
1pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): taking a slightly worse price than SJ for the special offer if he scores more than one.
Monday, 22 March 2010
After adjusting to allow for us losing a point more on Tidal Bay than I had allowed the weekends football brings us up to +98.78pts. More football betting this weeks with some value on the to qualify markets in the european cups.
3pts Wolfsburg to qualify @ 5/6 (ladbrokes): Have home advantage in the 2nd leg which is key. Fulham are perhaps slightly flattered by their win over a shambles of a Juve team who were reduced to 10 men early on. Last years German champions are the better team and with the 2nd leg at home look great value to progress.
1pt Standard Liege to qualify @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes): Again home advantage in the 2nd leg can prove key. Liege are underestimated and a 4-1 victory over an under-rated Panathanikos side is not to be sniffed at especially a 3-1 away win. They have improved enough in the last 2 years to be a rel danger to this Hamburg side.
1.5pts Wolves to win @ 5.3 (Betfair): Wolves are a point ahead of West Ham yet WH go into this game as 4/5 favourites. That does not make sense. They should be out about 6/5 -5/4. Wolves might just surprise everyone this season and stay up. Definitely at bigger than 4/1 here they are worth a shot.
1pt Wolfsburg to win Europa League @ 7/1 (general): The 3 top teams are in the other half of the draw. Wolfsburg will have have home advantage in the 2nd leg again if they reach the semi-final. I don't think they will win that final although it also must be remembered that the final will be played just down the road in Hamburg.
2.5pts Bordeaux to qualify @ evns (general): Bordeaux are 5 pts clear of Lyon in Le Championnat with a game in hand. They also have home advantage in the second leg. They should be somewhere in the 4/6 - 8/11 range. I think Lyon knocking out Real and their previous European predigree are causing them to be over-rated for this clash.
3pts Wolfsburg to qualify @ 5/6 (ladbrokes): Have home advantage in the 2nd leg which is key. Fulham are perhaps slightly flattered by their win over a shambles of a Juve team who were reduced to 10 men early on. Last years German champions are the better team and with the 2nd leg at home look great value to progress.
1pt Standard Liege to qualify @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes): Again home advantage in the 2nd leg can prove key. Liege are underestimated and a 4-1 victory over an under-rated Panathanikos side is not to be sniffed at especially a 3-1 away win. They have improved enough in the last 2 years to be a rel danger to this Hamburg side.
1.5pts Wolves to win @ 5.3 (Betfair): Wolves are a point ahead of West Ham yet WH go into this game as 4/5 favourites. That does not make sense. They should be out about 6/5 -5/4. Wolves might just surprise everyone this season and stay up. Definitely at bigger than 4/1 here they are worth a shot.
1pt Wolfsburg to win Europa League @ 7/1 (general): The 3 top teams are in the other half of the draw. Wolfsburg will have have home advantage in the 2nd leg again if they reach the semi-final. I don't think they will win that final although it also must be remembered that the final will be played just down the road in Hamburg.
2.5pts Bordeaux to qualify @ evns (general): Bordeaux are 5 pts clear of Lyon in Le Championnat with a game in hand. They also have home advantage in the second leg. They should be somewhere in the 4/6 - 8/11 range. I think Lyon knocking out Real and their previous European predigree are causing them to be over-rated for this clash.
Saturday, 20 March 2010
Hitting the bar
What a day of near misses! We collected place money in 4 of the 6 races previewed without ever getting our noses in front on the line. If my maths are right we were exactly even on the last day of the festival but on a day of some rollercoaster emotions it certainly didn't feel that way. Today it is back to the mundane Saturday soccer to keep us occupied.
Man Utd v Liverpool
You probably won't be surprised to realise that I'm going to tip up a first goalscorer bet. You might be surprised though that it is Torres and not Rooney I'll be tipping up. Torres has made 18 or 19 appearances this campaign and has netted 15 times. It is not unrealistic to think that with an uninterrupted campaign he would be challenging Rooney for the golden boot. Also anyone who has seen any of the previous installments of Torres v Vidic wouldn't be betting too heavily on the Serb coming out on top. 2 goals midweek and a rather generous 13/2 compared to Rooney 3/1 is enough to convince us on this one.
0.75pts e/w Torres to score first 13/2 (888sport, Coral)
1.5pts David Villa to score first @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) - his record in the Mestalla continues to amaze
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - only Messi has scored more in La Liga this season and there should be plenty of goals for Madrid at home to Gijon.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - top goalscorer this season and always a threat.
Premiership Outright;
I toyed with putting up Arsenal a few weeks back at 7s and then didn't but there is still time to right the wrong. Looking at the top 3s run ins Chelsea have 5 away games out of 9 with trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, and White Hart Lane. They also have to entertain Villa at Stamford Bridge. Man Utd have it easier playing Spurs Liverpool and Chelsea at home with only the away trip to City standing out - but still a lot of top teams capable of taking points off them. Arsenal have a nice run in with plenty of mid table teams with nothing to play for Man City visit the Emirates and they have a tricky trip down the road to Spurs but comfortably the easiest run in. I'm not sure how since they are by far the worst of the 3 teams but I think they should be joint favs with Utd and then Chelsea a bit further back.
1.5pts Arsenal to win Premiership @ 11/4 (VC, Boyles)
Man Utd v Liverpool
You probably won't be surprised to realise that I'm going to tip up a first goalscorer bet. You might be surprised though that it is Torres and not Rooney I'll be tipping up. Torres has made 18 or 19 appearances this campaign and has netted 15 times. It is not unrealistic to think that with an uninterrupted campaign he would be challenging Rooney for the golden boot. Also anyone who has seen any of the previous installments of Torres v Vidic wouldn't be betting too heavily on the Serb coming out on top. 2 goals midweek and a rather generous 13/2 compared to Rooney 3/1 is enough to convince us on this one.
0.75pts e/w Torres to score first 13/2 (888sport, Coral)
1.5pts David Villa to score first @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) - his record in the Mestalla continues to amaze
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - only Messi has scored more in La Liga this season and there should be plenty of goals for Madrid at home to Gijon.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - top goalscorer this season and always a threat.
Premiership Outright;
I toyed with putting up Arsenal a few weeks back at 7s and then didn't but there is still time to right the wrong. Looking at the top 3s run ins Chelsea have 5 away games out of 9 with trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, and White Hart Lane. They also have to entertain Villa at Stamford Bridge. Man Utd have it easier playing Spurs Liverpool and Chelsea at home with only the away trip to City standing out - but still a lot of top teams capable of taking points off them. Arsenal have a nice run in with plenty of mid table teams with nothing to play for Man City visit the Emirates and they have a tricky trip down the road to Spurs but comfortably the easiest run in. I'm not sure how since they are by far the worst of the 3 teams but I think they should be joint favs with Utd and then Chelsea a bit further back.
1.5pts Arsenal to win Premiership @ 11/4 (VC, Boyles)
Friday, 19 March 2010
Den to be the man again
Having briefly edged above the 100pt mark our profit to date now stands at +92.28pts. It's hard to believe we've come to the end of Cheltenham already and will now have to go cold turkey until Aintree in a few weeks time but hopefully we can go out on a high and break the 100pt mark for the season.
Triumph Hurdle:
I actually have an antepost docket on this one that didn't feature on the blog as I happened to be in Celtic shop one day when they were having one of their moments of madness and managed to pick up a bit of 16s on Carlito Brigante. However we'll still try and find the value in todays market although I think the conclusion could be the same! I don't like Alaivan here as favourite - he was easily beaten by CB at Leopardstown over Christmas and the distance from him back to Loch Long suggests this was not a below par run for him. No reason why he should be shorter in the market today.
Carlito has done nothing wrong - a very impressive win over Christmas in between to comfortable enough wins in more ordinary races. Some bookies are paying 4 places on this today and 9/2 e/w looks like a shot to nothing.
Soldatino is a very good horse but for once I think maybe the market is over-reacting to his one English run. I think the connections have shortened this horse more than possibly he deserves even though I think he will be involved turning in.
Secant Star had the race won when falling due to a low sun at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas however the fact that Ruby hasn't asked to switch off Advisor is probably a fair reflection of this horses chances today.
Advisor has doen nothing wrong but if he was with any other connections you would definitely be getting double figure odds - not for me at those prices.
Westlin Winds is an interesting horse - was beaten 2 1/4ls by Mille Chief the last day when pulling a furlong clear of the rest. Mille Chief would have started this race at about 5/2 - 11/4 if not for injury. Westlin Winds is 11/1 or 4.2 for a place.
The other horse to consider is Pittioni. He has already won a G1 and G3 this season and wasn't disgraced behind Coole River in a G2. My worry with this one is that he is having his 4th run in under 2 months. I just think maybe it's asking too much of him and a break might be called for. If he skips Aintree and turns up at Punchestown we might get involved.
1pt e/w Carlito Brigante 9/2 (Lads)
2pts Westlin Winds to place 4.2 (Betfair)
County Hurdle:
I've really liked Dee Ee Williams for a long time. For a while it seemed as if he had lost his way but looking through his best form he is the best horse here at these weights. He has run Medermit to a shd last season (he also technically ran Binocular to a length this season but it could have been 20 if Binocular was pushed out). He also ran 2nd to Tchico Polos in a rather short and unsuccessful spell chasing. Ignore the run the last day - if this horse is right 33s is going to look very big.
1.5pts e/w Dee Ee Williams 33/1 (WH)
Albert Bartlett:
It's hard to argue with the favourite here. He beat Reve de Sivola by 8Ls here earlier in the season and when you consider he went on to be second by 1 3/4Ls on Wednesday it makes the 9/2 look quite tempting. 2 course runs 2 easy wins even if he probably is better at around 2 1/2m he looks a serious prospect here.
Fionnagas is the other horse of big interest. Improved to run Dunguib to 2 1/2Ls the last day and although he has never run beyond 2 1/2m it is interesting that connections chose this target for him.
Of the others I think Shinrock Paddy's form in the book is a bit flattering and the Betchworth Kid would seem a bigger danger.
1.5pts Tell Massini @ 9/2 (Lads,WH)
0.5pts Fionnegas @16/1 (888sport)
1pt Fionnegas to place @ 5.8 (Betfair)
Gold Cup:
Triumph Hurdle:
I actually have an antepost docket on this one that didn't feature on the blog as I happened to be in Celtic shop one day when they were having one of their moments of madness and managed to pick up a bit of 16s on Carlito Brigante. However we'll still try and find the value in todays market although I think the conclusion could be the same! I don't like Alaivan here as favourite - he was easily beaten by CB at Leopardstown over Christmas and the distance from him back to Loch Long suggests this was not a below par run for him. No reason why he should be shorter in the market today.
Carlito has done nothing wrong - a very impressive win over Christmas in between to comfortable enough wins in more ordinary races. Some bookies are paying 4 places on this today and 9/2 e/w looks like a shot to nothing.
Soldatino is a very good horse but for once I think maybe the market is over-reacting to his one English run. I think the connections have shortened this horse more than possibly he deserves even though I think he will be involved turning in.
Secant Star had the race won when falling due to a low sun at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas however the fact that Ruby hasn't asked to switch off Advisor is probably a fair reflection of this horses chances today.
Advisor has doen nothing wrong but if he was with any other connections you would definitely be getting double figure odds - not for me at those prices.
Westlin Winds is an interesting horse - was beaten 2 1/4ls by Mille Chief the last day when pulling a furlong clear of the rest. Mille Chief would have started this race at about 5/2 - 11/4 if not for injury. Westlin Winds is 11/1 or 4.2 for a place.
The other horse to consider is Pittioni. He has already won a G1 and G3 this season and wasn't disgraced behind Coole River in a G2. My worry with this one is that he is having his 4th run in under 2 months. I just think maybe it's asking too much of him and a break might be called for. If he skips Aintree and turns up at Punchestown we might get involved.
1pt e/w Carlito Brigante 9/2 (Lads)
2pts Westlin Winds to place 4.2 (Betfair)
County Hurdle:
I've really liked Dee Ee Williams for a long time. For a while it seemed as if he had lost his way but looking through his best form he is the best horse here at these weights. He has run Medermit to a shd last season (he also technically ran Binocular to a length this season but it could have been 20 if Binocular was pushed out). He also ran 2nd to Tchico Polos in a rather short and unsuccessful spell chasing. Ignore the run the last day - if this horse is right 33s is going to look very big.
1.5pts e/w Dee Ee Williams 33/1 (WH)
Albert Bartlett:
It's hard to argue with the favourite here. He beat Reve de Sivola by 8Ls here earlier in the season and when you consider he went on to be second by 1 3/4Ls on Wednesday it makes the 9/2 look quite tempting. 2 course runs 2 easy wins even if he probably is better at around 2 1/2m he looks a serious prospect here.
Fionnagas is the other horse of big interest. Improved to run Dunguib to 2 1/2Ls the last day and although he has never run beyond 2 1/2m it is interesting that connections chose this target for him.
Of the others I think Shinrock Paddy's form in the book is a bit flattering and the Betchworth Kid would seem a bigger danger.
1.5pts Tell Massini @ 9/2 (Lads,WH)
0.5pts Fionnegas @16/1 (888sport)
1pt Fionnegas to place @ 5.8 (Betfair)
Gold Cup:
Already advised:
4pts Denman 7/4 w/o Kauto
2pts e/w Denman 7/2
1pt e/w Denman 4/1
Despite the above I still think Kauto will win but the prices on Denman are crazy. If you haven't backed him yet take the 9/2 e/w on him today - that is over evns on him to place! Also worth bearing in mind is that Kauto is French bred - which measn he developed early but also means he will deteriorate early as well and when it does happen it will happen quite quickly. I personally think it will be some stage next season when you see this deterioration but you never really know. Kauto was the best we've ever seen him only 3 months ago but a lot can happen in 3 months. Of the rest I think it is a big ask of Cooldine to be competitive today - even if he is back to his best I doubt it will be good enough to challenge the top 2. Tricky trickster at 5s without the big 2 could be interesting. A festival winner last day and a good performance when Denman fell last time out.
1pt Tricky trickster w/o KS, Denman 5/1 (Coral)
Hunter Chase:
Robber's Glen came 5th in this last year and seems to have improved since then. At a big price quite probably because of his jockey. In fairness to the female though she does have quite a good record of staying on this horse so jumping shouldn't be a problem.
Amicelli won this 2 years ago and was 4th again last year. Has a good corse record and can run well again on a course he likes.
0.5pts Robbers Glen @ 30.0(Betfair)
0.5pts Amicelli @36.o (Betfair)
0.5pts to place Robbers Glen @ 8.4(Betfair)
0.5pts to place Amicelli @ 8.2 (Betfair)
Martin Pipe Hurdle:
I was just going to put up Radium. He had an easy course win on NY Day and ran to within 4Ls of Get Me Out of Here before that. Throw out his last run and that looks pretty impressive. Then I noticed Mahonia lurking down the weights. It's hard to know what to make of this horse. He has a lot of talent but seems quite shy at showing it. Has a poor record at Cheltenham apart from a 2nd to Karabak and is probably going to be the one that got away when he romps in...... I think I will leave him out of the staking plan today.
0.5pts e/w Radium @14/1 (general)
Right I think that is it for today unless I have a brainwave on the last later on
Thursday, 18 March 2010
This time next week we'll be millionaire's
Having possibly already become a Thai millionaire on the back of this festival we'll continue and see if we can turn those Bahts into Euros on the last 2 days.
Jewson Chase:
My take on this is quite different from the market and I struggle to see this not being a great race for the Irish raiders. All 4 horses that caught my attention were Irish - now maybe this is one of my biases but I don't think it is. The 4 worth a mention in my opinion are
China Rock - this is going to be pouded today having been put up by Pricewise and it's not hard to see why. Has been racing in top company all season and hasn't been disgraced behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Pandorama - nothing of that quality here today and carrying 11-3 is going to take some beating.
Jered - a classy hurdler who ran a good race behind the progressive Uimhearaceathair the last time out I think the 114 might just be enough to stop him.
Nicanor - Jereds stablemate is a more interesting prospect and seems to be finally coming back to himself after injury. No disgrace to be headed by An Cathaoir Mor and a defeat to Kempes is also not a disgrace. He beat Denman in the RSA here before injury intervened and 11-1 makes him very interesting.
The Midnight Club - 3rd at the festival last year behind Weapons Amnesty and his jumping has been improving as the seson progresses he could surprise a few people here today. Nothing massively impressive in the form but at a big price you will get value for your money with a bold bid.
1pt e/w China Rock 9/1(WH, VC)
0.5pts e/w Nicanor 14/1(general)
0.5pts e/w The Midnight Club 20/1 (Boyles, VC)
Pertemps Final:
OK a few places are paying 5 places but you would need to pay about 8 places in this to make me want to have anything other than a token interest. That said the mare College Daisy does seem to be a bit overpriced at 66s off a light enough weight. Ran 4th behind Voler la Vedette earleir in the season and was only beaten 1/2L by Badgerlaw the last time out conceding 1lb. She might not stay up the hill but at these prices we'll take a chance. Of the places paying 5 places the best price is 40s so going to take 4 places on Betfair instead.
0.5pts win College Daisy (Betfair)
0.5pts place College Daisy 12.0 (Betfair)
Ryanair Chase:
I just want to start by saying that the owners of Tranquil Sea should be taken out into the stable yard and given a good whipping - running a horse in a nothing race 2 weeks before his main target 'because it's the same as bringing him schooling' is lunancy and has cost him his chance of lifting this imo.
Poquelin has had 2 good runs here this season but 3s is plenty short enough in a much tougher contest this time around.
Barber Shop is the one I like - he would have won the King George if Kauto hadn't been there and was 4th in the Hennessy before that. Seems a little overlooked - sometimes it's better to be beaten by the best than to beat nothing horses! A 2nd here in a Paddy Power Gold Cup to course specialist Imperial Commander shows that the course will be no problem either.
Petit Robin probably doesn't stay this far although if he does he could be a danger.
Schindlers Hunt ran well here last year but is probably playing for places again this year.
Voy Por Ustedes won't be too far away but just not quite at the level needed any more. 4/1 on the place is tempting though.
1.5pts e/w Barber Shop 13/2 (VC)
1pt e/w Voy Por Ustedes 16/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
Lay 1pt Voy Por Ustedes 17.0 (Betfair)
Stayers Hurdle:
Already advised - 1pt e/w Tidal Bay 9/1 + 1pt win Tidal Bay 9/1
No real change in my opinion of this one. Just to add a tiny bit on our outsiders to place at nice prices.
0.5pts Oscar Dan Dan to place 22/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Powerstation to place 15/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts War of Attrition to place 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
OK I'll post this now and then add any thoughts on the last 2 as I go along to give you a chance to get your cash down on the early races.
Byrne Plate:
The biggest handicap Victorias Groom has to overcome in this race is the fact that he is trained by Lucy Wadham. A nice light weight of 10-1 this horse has some nice form at the tail end of last year when touched off by Synchronised and Exmoor Ranger. Song of Songs looks the obvious danger and it's surprising to see AP's choice behind Sunnyhillboy in the betting. Jayo is another who looks interesting and it's a surprise he hasn't been given a bigger weight although he is 2lb worse off with Chapotourgeon since losing to him by 2Ls in November.
0.75pts Victorias Groom 33/1 (WH)
0.5pts Song of Songs 11/1 (WH)
Kim Muir
At this point in the day make a bundle of all your cash and head to the pub unless you really feel sorry about all the cash you've taken off the bookie and feel the need to give something back. If you insist on betting Saphir des Bois is being ridden by a Carr and could surprise others worth looking at might be Buck the Legend and Nina's mount
Jewson Chase:
My take on this is quite different from the market and I struggle to see this not being a great race for the Irish raiders. All 4 horses that caught my attention were Irish - now maybe this is one of my biases but I don't think it is. The 4 worth a mention in my opinion are
China Rock - this is going to be pouded today having been put up by Pricewise and it's not hard to see why. Has been racing in top company all season and hasn't been disgraced behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Pandorama - nothing of that quality here today and carrying 11-3 is going to take some beating.
Jered - a classy hurdler who ran a good race behind the progressive Uimhearaceathair the last time out I think the 114 might just be enough to stop him.
Nicanor - Jereds stablemate is a more interesting prospect and seems to be finally coming back to himself after injury. No disgrace to be headed by An Cathaoir Mor and a defeat to Kempes is also not a disgrace. He beat Denman in the RSA here before injury intervened and 11-1 makes him very interesting.
The Midnight Club - 3rd at the festival last year behind Weapons Amnesty and his jumping has been improving as the seson progresses he could surprise a few people here today. Nothing massively impressive in the form but at a big price you will get value for your money with a bold bid.
1pt e/w China Rock 9/1(WH, VC)
0.5pts e/w Nicanor 14/1(general)
0.5pts e/w The Midnight Club 20/1 (Boyles, VC)
Pertemps Final:
OK a few places are paying 5 places but you would need to pay about 8 places in this to make me want to have anything other than a token interest. That said the mare College Daisy does seem to be a bit overpriced at 66s off a light enough weight. Ran 4th behind Voler la Vedette earleir in the season and was only beaten 1/2L by Badgerlaw the last time out conceding 1lb. She might not stay up the hill but at these prices we'll take a chance. Of the places paying 5 places the best price is 40s so going to take 4 places on Betfair instead.
0.5pts win College Daisy (Betfair)
0.5pts place College Daisy 12.0 (Betfair)
Ryanair Chase:
I just want to start by saying that the owners of Tranquil Sea should be taken out into the stable yard and given a good whipping - running a horse in a nothing race 2 weeks before his main target 'because it's the same as bringing him schooling' is lunancy and has cost him his chance of lifting this imo.
Poquelin has had 2 good runs here this season but 3s is plenty short enough in a much tougher contest this time around.
Barber Shop is the one I like - he would have won the King George if Kauto hadn't been there and was 4th in the Hennessy before that. Seems a little overlooked - sometimes it's better to be beaten by the best than to beat nothing horses! A 2nd here in a Paddy Power Gold Cup to course specialist Imperial Commander shows that the course will be no problem either.
Petit Robin probably doesn't stay this far although if he does he could be a danger.
Schindlers Hunt ran well here last year but is probably playing for places again this year.
Voy Por Ustedes won't be too far away but just not quite at the level needed any more. 4/1 on the place is tempting though.
1.5pts e/w Barber Shop 13/2 (VC)
1pt e/w Voy Por Ustedes 16/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
Lay 1pt Voy Por Ustedes 17.0 (Betfair)
Stayers Hurdle:
Already advised - 1pt e/w Tidal Bay 9/1 + 1pt win Tidal Bay 9/1
No real change in my opinion of this one. Just to add a tiny bit on our outsiders to place at nice prices.
0.5pts Oscar Dan Dan to place 22/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Powerstation to place 15/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts War of Attrition to place 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
OK I'll post this now and then add any thoughts on the last 2 as I go along to give you a chance to get your cash down on the early races.
Byrne Plate:
The biggest handicap Victorias Groom has to overcome in this race is the fact that he is trained by Lucy Wadham. A nice light weight of 10-1 this horse has some nice form at the tail end of last year when touched off by Synchronised and Exmoor Ranger. Song of Songs looks the obvious danger and it's surprising to see AP's choice behind Sunnyhillboy in the betting. Jayo is another who looks interesting and it's a surprise he hasn't been given a bigger weight although he is 2lb worse off with Chapotourgeon since losing to him by 2Ls in November.
0.75pts Victorias Groom 33/1 (WH)
0.5pts Song of Songs 11/1 (WH)
Kim Muir
At this point in the day make a bundle of all your cash and head to the pub unless you really feel sorry about all the cash you've taken off the bookie and feel the need to give something back. If you insist on betting Saphir des Bois is being ridden by a Carr and could surprise others worth looking at might be Buck the Legend and Nina's mount
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Tus maith!
OK by my reckoning a good start to the festival has pushed profits up to +57.78pts even if it was all downhill after the second. We did miss out on some profit by forgetting about the CL last night but hopefully we can put that right today.
Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb
It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.
NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.
RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)
Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.
RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.
0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)
Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)
Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)
Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.
Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.
1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.
2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)
Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb
It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.
NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.
RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)
Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.
RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.
0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)
Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)
Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)
Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.
Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.
1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.
2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
It Begins!
Finally the wait is over and Cheltenham is here. Now I've covered most of the main races already in my previews so I'll leave them out today. That leaves 3 posers to try and figure out on the first day so we'll start with the ladies and see what we can find.
Having originally been trying to figure out what horse would come 3rd in this race I nearly gave up after coming to the conclusion that none of them were good enough to place. That being the case I don't think it is any harm to look at last years 3rd Aura About You who is a big price to run into a place again this year. Normally I would never back a horse having it's seasonal debut but in such a weak race in depth anything close to last years run should see her cover the airfare for her owners. Sway has class but has fallen the last twice, Zarinava needs a flat track and 2m, No One tells Me is slightly flattered by how close she was to VdV at Christmas and Easter Legend just doesn't have the form in the book in my opinion.
In the match between the 2 main contenders I think it is unfair to judge VdV based on a run against Go Native when he clearly needed the run and wasn't going to be beaten around by Carberry. Leaving that aside when you consider Quevega's run here last year and subsequent 3rd to Solwhit at Punchestown she is in my opinion the classier animal. The big downside is the fact that is is her debut. I know no horse has won a Grade 1 on their debut after Christmas for over 20 years - I know this is a grade 2 but.... So I am very tentatively going to side VdV
1pt Aura About You to place 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Voler de Vedette @ 3.2 (Betfair)
In the cross country chase you have to applaud the 10 horse who have turned up with zero chance of featuring to enable us to bet 1/4 odds on 4 places. Only 6 horses worth mentioning here.
Garde Champetre is hard to oppose since falling the first time around this course the only time this horse has been beaten here was when Davy Russell managed to find a short cut (and even then he nearly lost). Weight seems largely irrelevant in this race and a few extra pounds seems unlikely to halt him again.
L'ami is a consistent performer who continues to play second fiddle to stablemate GC. Should place again but of no massive interest bettingwise.
Sizing Australia is a young horse who is gradually edging closer to the favourite at each attempt. Would seem certain to feature and is definitely worth getting on side in one way or another.
Another Jewel is another young horse who picked up a similar race in Punchestown - will be interesting to see how he deals will Cheltenhams different challenge but cannot be written off.
Silver Birch is consistent over these fences but always falls just short and likely to be a similar story again - won't be disgraced but 5th or 6th seems to beckon.
Monkerhostin fills the role of the big name horse that should but doesn't beat a lot of inferior rivals due to not handling the different course. Same Same.
3pt Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Sizing Australia @ 7.4 (Betfair)
2pts place Sizing Australia @ 1.97 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Another Jewel @14/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
And so that brings us to the last race of the first day or the 3rd for those of you looking at the races in chronological order. And for once the bookies more or less seem to have it right. The top 4 in the market are all deserving of their place their and although I expect to see plenty of fallers in this race the only value I can find is the bookies who are kindly paying 5 places instead of 4. As this is the case I see no harm in having a little e/w on the favourite who should jump better today in a race run at a proper pace.
1.5pts e/w Bensalem @ 11/2 (888sport)
Having originally been trying to figure out what horse would come 3rd in this race I nearly gave up after coming to the conclusion that none of them were good enough to place. That being the case I don't think it is any harm to look at last years 3rd Aura About You who is a big price to run into a place again this year. Normally I would never back a horse having it's seasonal debut but in such a weak race in depth anything close to last years run should see her cover the airfare for her owners. Sway has class but has fallen the last twice, Zarinava needs a flat track and 2m, No One tells Me is slightly flattered by how close she was to VdV at Christmas and Easter Legend just doesn't have the form in the book in my opinion.
In the match between the 2 main contenders I think it is unfair to judge VdV based on a run against Go Native when he clearly needed the run and wasn't going to be beaten around by Carberry. Leaving that aside when you consider Quevega's run here last year and subsequent 3rd to Solwhit at Punchestown she is in my opinion the classier animal. The big downside is the fact that is is her debut. I know no horse has won a Grade 1 on their debut after Christmas for over 20 years - I know this is a grade 2 but.... So I am very tentatively going to side VdV
1pt Aura About You to place 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Voler de Vedette @ 3.2 (Betfair)
In the cross country chase you have to applaud the 10 horse who have turned up with zero chance of featuring to enable us to bet 1/4 odds on 4 places. Only 6 horses worth mentioning here.
Garde Champetre is hard to oppose since falling the first time around this course the only time this horse has been beaten here was when Davy Russell managed to find a short cut (and even then he nearly lost). Weight seems largely irrelevant in this race and a few extra pounds seems unlikely to halt him again.
L'ami is a consistent performer who continues to play second fiddle to stablemate GC. Should place again but of no massive interest bettingwise.
Sizing Australia is a young horse who is gradually edging closer to the favourite at each attempt. Would seem certain to feature and is definitely worth getting on side in one way or another.
Another Jewel is another young horse who picked up a similar race in Punchestown - will be interesting to see how he deals will Cheltenhams different challenge but cannot be written off.
Silver Birch is consistent over these fences but always falls just short and likely to be a similar story again - won't be disgraced but 5th or 6th seems to beckon.
Monkerhostin fills the role of the big name horse that should but doesn't beat a lot of inferior rivals due to not handling the different course. Same Same.
3pt Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Sizing Australia @ 7.4 (Betfair)
2pts place Sizing Australia @ 1.97 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Another Jewel @14/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
And so that brings us to the last race of the first day or the 3rd for those of you looking at the races in chronological order. And for once the bookies more or less seem to have it right. The top 4 in the market are all deserving of their place their and although I expect to see plenty of fallers in this race the only value I can find is the bookies who are kindly paying 5 places instead of 4. As this is the case I see no harm in having a little e/w on the favourite who should jump better today in a race run at a proper pace.
1.5pts e/w Bensalem @ 11/2 (888sport)
Saturday, 13 March 2010
Back on Track
OK going to start this weekends wrap in the unusual spot of Doha for the World Indoor Champs. The bookies seem to underestimate the edge you have on an indoor track over 400m if you can get drawn in the outside 2 lanes. If you are drawn wide you take the 2 turns before the break less tightly than those inside you. This allows you build up momentum and means that when the beak comes at the 200m mark you should be able to have taken a lead which due to the nature of the track is harder to pull back than in your standard outdoor 400m race.
3pts Jackson to win Mens 400m @ evens (Paddy Power): Irelands David Gillick is kind of making the market here. It is unfortunate for him that he had to check his stride going into the 3rd bend in yesterdays semi-final - something which cost him 1st in his heat (just) and landed him in lane 3 denying him what would have been a favourites chance at gold here. Jackson is no certainty but with a nice outside draw you would fancy this hurdler to take full advantage and get a good position off the break leaving a lot to do for the other challengers.
3pts Debbie Dunn to the Womens 400m @ 11/10 (Boyles): barely broke a sweat winning her semi last night and with 3 400m races in 2 days that combined with her nice draw makes this bet irresistable.
1pt e/w Are You the One in 1.05 Limerick @ 7/2 (Paddy Power): can take advantage of any weakness this very highly hyped favourite has
1pt e/w King Edmund in 4.15 Sandown @ 5/1 (Sportingodds): Both him and the favourite are classy horses who lost nithing in defeat against Long Run and Punchestown respectively the last time out. I think the bare 2 miles will suit King Edmund better with Tchico Polos racing over longer recently. Also there is value in the race due to the prominence of Joe Jo Star in the betting based on him beating King Edmind the last day - however KE was beaten because he fought with Long Run for so oong and eventually paid the price. My main concern would actually be that after only 4 weeks this race is coming too soon after such a hard race for our selection, however as most of his rivals are in similar situations we will overlook that this once.
1.5pts Burnley @7/5 (totesport, Coral): I think the true price here should be about 11/10 - 6/5. Both teams have the same amount of points and every point in games like this is crucial to both sides. Burnley have relied on their home form to ensure there is still some hope of surviving at this stage and they can prevail again at home.
3pts Jackson to win Mens 400m @ evens (Paddy Power): Irelands David Gillick is kind of making the market here. It is unfortunate for him that he had to check his stride going into the 3rd bend in yesterdays semi-final - something which cost him 1st in his heat (just) and landed him in lane 3 denying him what would have been a favourites chance at gold here. Jackson is no certainty but with a nice outside draw you would fancy this hurdler to take full advantage and get a good position off the break leaving a lot to do for the other challengers.
3pts Debbie Dunn to the Womens 400m @ 11/10 (Boyles): barely broke a sweat winning her semi last night and with 3 400m races in 2 days that combined with her nice draw makes this bet irresistable.
1pt e/w Are You the One in 1.05 Limerick @ 7/2 (Paddy Power): can take advantage of any weakness this very highly hyped favourite has
1pt e/w King Edmund in 4.15 Sandown @ 5/1 (Sportingodds): Both him and the favourite are classy horses who lost nithing in defeat against Long Run and Punchestown respectively the last time out. I think the bare 2 miles will suit King Edmund better with Tchico Polos racing over longer recently. Also there is value in the race due to the prominence of Joe Jo Star in the betting based on him beating King Edmind the last day - however KE was beaten because he fought with Long Run for so oong and eventually paid the price. My main concern would actually be that after only 4 weeks this race is coming too soon after such a hard race for our selection, however as most of his rivals are in similar situations we will overlook that this once.
1.5pts Burnley @7/5 (totesport, Coral): I think the true price here should be about 11/10 - 6/5. Both teams have the same amount of points and every point in games like this is crucial to both sides. Burnley have relied on their home form to ensure there is still some hope of surviving at this stage and they can prevail again at home.
1pt Aston Villa @ 2.44 (Betfair): Very slightly too big a price on a Villa team with a lot more to play for than a dogged Stoke team that seem to be secure from relegation. With Man City and Liverpool not playing until tomorrow Villa will need to turn their games in hand into points to keep up the pressure on the other teams in the fight for 4th.
1pt Blackburn @ 8/1 (VC): I really am in two minds as to whether to back Rovers or lay Spurs. The 4/9 on Spurs seems very short especially given their injury worries. Whichever you prefer yourself I would suggest but Spurs need to be opposed. I am going to go with a Rovers win and hope for the scoop!
1.5pts Birmingham @ 9/4 (VC): People seem to have over-reacted to Everton's good form and Birmingham's slump. Nothing between these sides in the table, nothing major between them on goal diff (a very good indicator of false positions in the table) so why are B'ham 9/4 at home? Take a chance that Everton won't be scoring for fun again and that B'ham can grind out another result.
2pts Draw - Sevilla v Depor @ 11/4 (Boyles, Hills, tote): 5th v 6th promises to be a tight affair. With goals at a premium this looks much too big on these sides playing out a stalemate. The 5/1 on Depor edging it is also slightly tempting but we'll stick all our cash on the draw here as the best value.
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 7/2 (Skybet): Despite his heroic efforts not to deliver midweek, we will give him a chance to redeem himself against a team with 5 goals and 4 points in the last 10 games.
1pt Wales @ 5.0 (Betfair): I think Ireland will just about win this but the difference in prices is much too big. Result have been a harsh reflection on the Welsh performances so far and I expect they will give us a proper game today. As for the other game I'm sure there are re-runs of Neighbours or Judge Judy on that will allow you avoid watching that misery.
4pts Denman w/o Kauto @ 7/4 (Celtic): Lunacy - has somebody cut off one of Denmans legs without it making the headlines?
Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Clarification
Ok another good night see our overall profits hit the +47.21pts. Just to clarify on the Arsenal game though. Just because I assume that the overall split of results is 60:20:20 doesn't mean I think this applies in each game. It was just that Arsenal were 4/6 (60% prob) to win the game according to the bookies and I was relatively happy with this assessment. If anything the bookies may put the home team in these ties slightly bigger than they should due to underestimating the home advantage. If Arsenal are better than a 4/6 shot that would hav had a negative impact on our Porto win bet but a positive impact on our lay of the draw. Given that we laid the draw for more than we backed Porto any error should work in our favour overall.
So on to tonight....
2pts Man Utd @ 1.78 (Betfair): Man Utd are the better team here and with home advantage and Rooney back I think they should be much shorter. Granted they don't have to go for the win but I still think they are unlikely to sit back until the last 10 mins at which stage if it's still 0-0 Milan will need 2 goals to progress.
0.5pts Lyon @ 10/1 (VC): I fully expect Real to win this game but I can't get away from thinking that Lyon have to have more than a 9% chance of victory. I think people actually over-emphasise how strong Real are at home. OK they have a 100% record there in the league (thanks to only playing Sevilla out of the top teams - which as you'll know they nearly messed up) and they did lose to a late Pato goal in their toughest CL tie. I think the longer it remains scoreless the higher the chances are that Lyon can catch them on the break.
0.5pts e/w Higuain to score first @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes): If Real do deliver as expected it could be wise to side with Higuain as first goalscorer. He may not grab as many headlines as Ronaldo but his record in front of goal is just as impressive this season. In a game where the total goals line is about 3.1 the each way part of this looks particularly attractive.
On the cards front the referees tonight are both very calm and sensible ref's so we will only play at reduced stakes - however it can't be ignored that 13 of the last 18 R16 2nd leg ties would have collected on this bet so:
1pt 4-6 Cards - Man U v Milan @5/4
1pt 4-6 cards - Real v Lyon @ 19/20
Just a quick note on Cheltenham:
1pt e/w Denman @ 4/1 (Will Hill): We backed him already at 7/2. At an even bigger price I can't resist adding to the stake.
So on to tonight....
2pts Man Utd @ 1.78 (Betfair): Man Utd are the better team here and with home advantage and Rooney back I think they should be much shorter. Granted they don't have to go for the win but I still think they are unlikely to sit back until the last 10 mins at which stage if it's still 0-0 Milan will need 2 goals to progress.
0.5pts Lyon @ 10/1 (VC): I fully expect Real to win this game but I can't get away from thinking that Lyon have to have more than a 9% chance of victory. I think people actually over-emphasise how strong Real are at home. OK they have a 100% record there in the league (thanks to only playing Sevilla out of the top teams - which as you'll know they nearly messed up) and they did lose to a late Pato goal in their toughest CL tie. I think the longer it remains scoreless the higher the chances are that Lyon can catch them on the break.
0.5pts e/w Higuain to score first @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes): If Real do deliver as expected it could be wise to side with Higuain as first goalscorer. He may not grab as many headlines as Ronaldo but his record in front of goal is just as impressive this season. In a game where the total goals line is about 3.1 the each way part of this looks particularly attractive.
On the cards front the referees tonight are both very calm and sensible ref's so we will only play at reduced stakes - however it can't be ignored that 13 of the last 18 R16 2nd leg ties would have collected on this bet so:
1pt 4-6 Cards - Man U v Milan @5/4
1pt 4-6 cards - Real v Lyon @ 19/20
Just a quick note on Cheltenham:
1pt e/w Denman @ 4/1 (Will Hill): We backed him already at 7/2. At an even bigger price I can't resist adding to the stake.
Monday, 8 March 2010
OK a disappointing performance on the Spanish football took a bit of the shine of a pretty successful weekend where we pushed our profits to +38.22pts. Champions League tonight! In the second leg of these ties the home team have averaged roughly a 60% strike rate over the last 5 years. The split between draws and away wins is a little less certain with R16 games having a 18:22 split but overall having a 23:17 split. It seems as if away wins get less and less likely as the tournament progresses (no away team has won a semi final second leg since the CL adopted this format). However I am not confident there is really enough data so suggest that this is statisically significant and so I am working off the assumption that the H:D:A split is roughly 60:20:20
This being the case:
2.5pts Fiorentina @ 15/8 (bet365): I thought they were under-rated for the first round clash and they continue to be under-rated. They were very unlucky to be beaten the last day and Bayern continue to be judged on their team sheet and not their performances. At home we have to side with the Italians here.
Lay to lose 3 pts Draw @ 4.0 Arsenal v Porto (Betfair): A finely balanced tie but the stats suggest that the draw should be about 5.0 and Porto should be a similar price.
0.5pts Porto @ 6.4 (Betfair): see above
Also as far as I can remember from my spreadsheet last night the bookings make up for these games averages about 51.5pts. I also seem to remember that only 2 games in the last 2 years made up at less than 40. This would suggest that totals are clustered around the 40-60 mark with a coouple of outliers so....
2pts 4-6 cards in each game. Both at 19/20 (Will Hill)
This being the case:
2.5pts Fiorentina @ 15/8 (bet365): I thought they were under-rated for the first round clash and they continue to be under-rated. They were very unlucky to be beaten the last day and Bayern continue to be judged on their team sheet and not their performances. At home we have to side with the Italians here.
Lay to lose 3 pts Draw @ 4.0 Arsenal v Porto (Betfair): A finely balanced tie but the stats suggest that the draw should be about 5.0 and Porto should be a similar price.
0.5pts Porto @ 6.4 (Betfair): see above
Also as far as I can remember from my spreadsheet last night the bookings make up for these games averages about 51.5pts. I also seem to remember that only 2 games in the last 2 years made up at less than 40. This would suggest that totals are clustered around the 40-60 mark with a coouple of outliers so....
2pts 4-6 cards in each game. Both at 19/20 (Will Hill)
Saturday, 6 March 2010
Saturday Football
It's Saturday which means some bookie somewhere is doing something stupid again! Since most of the good horses are wrapped up until Cheltenham it's all football today.
1.5pts Bolton @ 4/1 (Boyles, VC): There is only 1 point between these 2 sides in the league so to have the Hammers shorter than 4/5 does not make sense. They should be out around the 5/4 mark but it does leave a nice juicy price on Bolton to get a few points further away from the relegation dogfight.
2pts Under 2.5 goals Man Utd v Wolves (general): Looks like Rooney won't start and Owen is also out. Hard to see where the goals will come from here with Utd so reliant on Rooney this season.
1.5pts Wolves +2 @4/5 (Sportingbet): I was originally going to just lay Utd. But in the past they have developed a talent for squeeking these games when it counts. Wolves losing by a single goal wouldn't be a massive surprise
2.5pts Portsmouth @13/8 (Lads): This price won't last long so maybe take your stake down a 1/2 pt if you don't get it. The seige mentality should see Portsmouth start to play to their ability now as all these players will be looking for new employers in the next few months. Birmingham might just be starting to get a bit burned out as their reliance on the same 11 players starts to take its toll. Expect an electric atmosphere and at least some of the gloom around Fratton Park to be lifted at least temporarily
3pts Aston Villa @ 5/6 (VC): Maybe there is a reason why a team that is fighting for a champions league spot is 5/6 against a team fighting against relegation in the Championship but I sure as hell don't know what it is. Get on!
1.5pts Bolton @ 4/1 (Boyles, VC): There is only 1 point between these 2 sides in the league so to have the Hammers shorter than 4/5 does not make sense. They should be out around the 5/4 mark but it does leave a nice juicy price on Bolton to get a few points further away from the relegation dogfight.
2pts Under 2.5 goals Man Utd v Wolves (general): Looks like Rooney won't start and Owen is also out. Hard to see where the goals will come from here with Utd so reliant on Rooney this season.
1.5pts Wolves +2 @4/5 (Sportingbet): I was originally going to just lay Utd. But in the past they have developed a talent for squeeking these games when it counts. Wolves losing by a single goal wouldn't be a massive surprise
2.5pts Portsmouth @13/8 (Lads): This price won't last long so maybe take your stake down a 1/2 pt if you don't get it. The seige mentality should see Portsmouth start to play to their ability now as all these players will be looking for new employers in the next few months. Birmingham might just be starting to get a bit burned out as their reliance on the same 11 players starts to take its toll. Expect an electric atmosphere and at least some of the gloom around Fratton Park to be lifted at least temporarily
3pts Aston Villa @ 5/6 (VC): Maybe there is a reason why a team that is fighting for a champions league spot is 5/6 against a team fighting against relegation in the Championship but I sure as hell don't know what it is. Get on!
2.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 10/3 (Will Hill): you know the score at this stage.
1pt Sevilla @ 15/2 (Tote): 2nd v 4th - should the home team really be a 4/9 shot? I don't think so. If Real do win this they will know they were in a game. I wouldn't put people off backing the draw either but I just think there is slightly better value in hoping for an upset here.
Monday, 1 March 2010
Champion Chase + PP Madness
A nice easy race to dissect by comparison with some. I suppose it is only fair to start with the best horse in the race - Master Minded. Rated the best chaser in training after his romp here 2 years ago when he destroyed Voy Por by about 18Ls he has never really reached those heights since despite adding a second Champion last year. Nicholls claims that he is finally coming back to the form of 2 years ago and even without quite reaching those levels its not hard to see why he is as short as 4/5. However there are doubts over just how well he has recovered and although he wasn't overly extended the last day I'm never too happy to see a 2m chaser run within a month of Cheltenham.
Kalahari King is a mystery to me as to why he is where he is in the betting. Best of a very limited rest against Twist Magic at sandown before a comfortable win in a Class 2 handicap makes him second fav for the Champion Chase??
Twist Magic has raced at Cheltenham 3 times. He's fallen twice and the one time he stood up he was 6th of 8 beaten a full 52Ls by Master Minded. There are more deserving charities in Haiti and Chile for people to go giving away their money betting on this guy.
Big Zeb is one horse who can give the favourite a race (if he stands up). He would have beaten him last year at Punchestown apart from trying to demolish the last and going down by a head. Although he did fall last year it is worth remebering that English fences are easier to jump than Irish fences and is also going over fresh unlike when flopping in the Tingle Creek.
Of the rest Forpadytheplasterer always seems to find someone better than him and doesn't quite seem to have the class for this although the race wil be run to suit. Petit Robin is perhaps slightly over-priced at 20/1 given he put in a good show last year when losing 2nd on the run-in and had a good win over Christmas before finding flat track specialist TM too good for him in Ascot the last day. I expect a big run for 3rd or 4th. Might hold off and back him on the day for a place.
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb 8/1 (Will Hill)
I have just been alerted to PP insane MBS on the Supreme Novices. Get as much cash as possible down on this race with them on anything but the favourite (obviously don't have any docket for more than e300 as that would be stupid)
Kalahari King is a mystery to me as to why he is where he is in the betting. Best of a very limited rest against Twist Magic at sandown before a comfortable win in a Class 2 handicap makes him second fav for the Champion Chase??
Twist Magic has raced at Cheltenham 3 times. He's fallen twice and the one time he stood up he was 6th of 8 beaten a full 52Ls by Master Minded. There are more deserving charities in Haiti and Chile for people to go giving away their money betting on this guy.
Big Zeb is one horse who can give the favourite a race (if he stands up). He would have beaten him last year at Punchestown apart from trying to demolish the last and going down by a head. Although he did fall last year it is worth remebering that English fences are easier to jump than Irish fences and is also going over fresh unlike when flopping in the Tingle Creek.
Of the rest Forpadytheplasterer always seems to find someone better than him and doesn't quite seem to have the class for this although the race wil be run to suit. Petit Robin is perhaps slightly over-priced at 20/1 given he put in a good show last year when losing 2nd on the run-in and had a good win over Christmas before finding flat track specialist TM too good for him in Ascot the last day. I expect a big run for 3rd or 4th. Might hold off and back him on the day for a place.
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb 8/1 (Will Hill)
I have just been alerted to PP insane MBS on the Supreme Novices. Get as much cash as possible down on this race with them on anything but the favourite (obviously don't have any docket for more than e300 as that would be stupid)
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