Tus maith!

OK by my reckoning a good start to the festival has pushed profits up to +57.78pts even if it was all downhill after the second. We did miss out on some profit by forgetting about the CL last night but hopefully we can put that right today.

Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb

It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.

NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.

RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)

Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.

RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.

0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)

Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)

Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)

Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.

Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.

1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.

2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)