Having possibly already become a Thai millionaire on the back of this festival we'll continue and see if we can turn those Bahts into Euros on the last 2 days.
Jewson Chase:
My take on this is quite different from the market and I struggle to see this not being a great race for the Irish raiders. All 4 horses that caught my attention were Irish - now maybe this is one of my biases but I don't think it is. The 4 worth a mention in my opinion are
China Rock - this is going to be pouded today having been put up by Pricewise and it's not hard to see why. Has been racing in top company all season and hasn't been disgraced behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Pandorama - nothing of that quality here today and carrying 11-3 is going to take some beating.
Jered - a classy hurdler who ran a good race behind the progressive Uimhearaceathair the last time out I think the 114 might just be enough to stop him.
Nicanor - Jereds stablemate is a more interesting prospect and seems to be finally coming back to himself after injury. No disgrace to be headed by An Cathaoir Mor and a defeat to Kempes is also not a disgrace. He beat Denman in the RSA here before injury intervened and 11-1 makes him very interesting.
The Midnight Club - 3rd at the festival last year behind Weapons Amnesty and his jumping has been improving as the seson progresses he could surprise a few people here today. Nothing massively impressive in the form but at a big price you will get value for your money with a bold bid.
1pt e/w China Rock 9/1(WH, VC)
0.5pts e/w Nicanor 14/1(general)
0.5pts e/w The Midnight Club 20/1 (Boyles, VC)
Pertemps Final:
OK a few places are paying 5 places but you would need to pay about 8 places in this to make me want to have anything other than a token interest. That said the mare College Daisy does seem to be a bit overpriced at 66s off a light enough weight. Ran 4th behind Voler la Vedette earleir in the season and was only beaten 1/2L by Badgerlaw the last time out conceding 1lb. She might not stay up the hill but at these prices we'll take a chance. Of the places paying 5 places the best price is 40s so going to take 4 places on Betfair instead.
0.5pts win College Daisy (Betfair)
0.5pts place College Daisy 12.0 (Betfair)
Ryanair Chase:
I just want to start by saying that the owners of Tranquil Sea should be taken out into the stable yard and given a good whipping - running a horse in a nothing race 2 weeks before his main target 'because it's the same as bringing him schooling' is lunancy and has cost him his chance of lifting this imo.
Poquelin has had 2 good runs here this season but 3s is plenty short enough in a much tougher contest this time around.
Barber Shop is the one I like - he would have won the King George if Kauto hadn't been there and was 4th in the Hennessy before that. Seems a little overlooked - sometimes it's better to be beaten by the best than to beat nothing horses! A 2nd here in a Paddy Power Gold Cup to course specialist Imperial Commander shows that the course will be no problem either.
Petit Robin probably doesn't stay this far although if he does he could be a danger.
Schindlers Hunt ran well here last year but is probably playing for places again this year.
Voy Por Ustedes won't be too far away but just not quite at the level needed any more. 4/1 on the place is tempting though.
1.5pts e/w Barber Shop 13/2 (VC)
1pt e/w Voy Por Ustedes 16/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
Lay 1pt Voy Por Ustedes 17.0 (Betfair)
Stayers Hurdle:
Already advised - 1pt e/w Tidal Bay 9/1 + 1pt win Tidal Bay 9/1
No real change in my opinion of this one. Just to add a tiny bit on our outsiders to place at nice prices.
0.5pts Oscar Dan Dan to place 22/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Powerstation to place 15/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts War of Attrition to place 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
OK I'll post this now and then add any thoughts on the last 2 as I go along to give you a chance to get your cash down on the early races.
Byrne Plate:
The biggest handicap Victorias Groom has to overcome in this race is the fact that he is trained by Lucy Wadham. A nice light weight of 10-1 this horse has some nice form at the tail end of last year when touched off by Synchronised and Exmoor Ranger. Song of Songs looks the obvious danger and it's surprising to see AP's choice behind Sunnyhillboy in the betting. Jayo is another who looks interesting and it's a surprise he hasn't been given a bigger weight although he is 2lb worse off with Chapotourgeon since losing to him by 2Ls in November.
0.75pts Victorias Groom 33/1 (WH)
0.5pts Song of Songs 11/1 (WH)
Kim Muir
At this point in the day make a bundle of all your cash and head to the pub unless you really feel sorry about all the cash you've taken off the bookie and feel the need to give something back. If you insist on betting Saphir des Bois is being ridden by a Carr and could surprise others worth looking at might be Buck the Legend and Nina's mount
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment