Triumph Hurdle:
I actually have an antepost docket on this one that didn't feature on the blog as I happened to be in Celtic shop one day when they were having one of their moments of madness and managed to pick up a bit of 16s on Carlito Brigante. However we'll still try and find the value in todays market although I think the conclusion could be the same! I don't like Alaivan here as favourite - he was easily beaten by CB at Leopardstown over Christmas and the distance from him back to Loch Long suggests this was not a below par run for him. No reason why he should be shorter in the market today.
Carlito has done nothing wrong - a very impressive win over Christmas in between to comfortable enough wins in more ordinary races. Some bookies are paying 4 places on this today and 9/2 e/w looks like a shot to nothing.
Soldatino is a very good horse but for once I think maybe the market is over-reacting to his one English run. I think the connections have shortened this horse more than possibly he deserves even though I think he will be involved turning in.
Secant Star had the race won when falling due to a low sun at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas however the fact that Ruby hasn't asked to switch off Advisor is probably a fair reflection of this horses chances today.
Advisor has doen nothing wrong but if he was with any other connections you would definitely be getting double figure odds - not for me at those prices.
Westlin Winds is an interesting horse - was beaten 2 1/4ls by Mille Chief the last day when pulling a furlong clear of the rest. Mille Chief would have started this race at about 5/2 - 11/4 if not for injury. Westlin Winds is 11/1 or 4.2 for a place.
The other horse to consider is Pittioni. He has already won a G1 and G3 this season and wasn't disgraced behind Coole River in a G2. My worry with this one is that he is having his 4th run in under 2 months. I just think maybe it's asking too much of him and a break might be called for. If he skips Aintree and turns up at Punchestown we might get involved.
1pt e/w Carlito Brigante 9/2 (Lads)
2pts Westlin Winds to place 4.2 (Betfair)
County Hurdle:
I've really liked Dee Ee Williams for a long time. For a while it seemed as if he had lost his way but looking through his best form he is the best horse here at these weights. He has run Medermit to a shd last season (he also technically ran Binocular to a length this season but it could have been 20 if Binocular was pushed out). He also ran 2nd to Tchico Polos in a rather short and unsuccessful spell chasing. Ignore the run the last day - if this horse is right 33s is going to look very big.
1.5pts e/w Dee Ee Williams 33/1 (WH)
Albert Bartlett:
It's hard to argue with the favourite here. He beat Reve de Sivola by 8Ls here earlier in the season and when you consider he went on to be second by 1 3/4Ls on Wednesday it makes the 9/2 look quite tempting. 2 course runs 2 easy wins even if he probably is better at around 2 1/2m he looks a serious prospect here.
Fionnagas is the other horse of big interest. Improved to run Dunguib to 2 1/2Ls the last day and although he has never run beyond 2 1/2m it is interesting that connections chose this target for him.
Of the others I think Shinrock Paddy's form in the book is a bit flattering and the Betchworth Kid would seem a bigger danger.
1.5pts Tell Massini @ 9/2 (Lads,WH)
0.5pts Fionnegas @16/1 (888sport)
1pt Fionnegas to place @ 5.8 (Betfair)
Gold Cup:
Already advised:
4pts Denman 7/4 w/o Kauto
2pts e/w Denman 7/2
1pt e/w Denman 4/1
Despite the above I still think Kauto will win but the prices on Denman are crazy. If you haven't backed him yet take the 9/2 e/w on him today - that is over evns on him to place! Also worth bearing in mind is that Kauto is French bred - which measn he developed early but also means he will deteriorate early as well and when it does happen it will happen quite quickly. I personally think it will be some stage next season when you see this deterioration but you never really know. Kauto was the best we've ever seen him only 3 months ago but a lot can happen in 3 months. Of the rest I think it is a big ask of Cooldine to be competitive today - even if he is back to his best I doubt it will be good enough to challenge the top 2. Tricky trickster at 5s without the big 2 could be interesting. A festival winner last day and a good performance when Denman fell last time out.
1pt Tricky trickster w/o KS, Denman 5/1 (Coral)
Hunter Chase:
Robber's Glen came 5th in this last year and seems to have improved since then. At a big price quite probably because of his jockey. In fairness to the female though she does have quite a good record of staying on this horse so jumping shouldn't be a problem.
Amicelli won this 2 years ago and was 4th again last year. Has a good corse record and can run well again on a course he likes.
0.5pts Robbers Glen @ 30.0(Betfair)
0.5pts Amicelli @36.o (Betfair)
0.5pts to place Robbers Glen @ 8.4(Betfair)
0.5pts to place Amicelli @ 8.2 (Betfair)
Martin Pipe Hurdle:
I was just going to put up Radium. He had an easy course win on NY Day and ran to within 4Ls of Get Me Out of Here before that. Throw out his last run and that looks pretty impressive. Then I noticed Mahonia lurking down the weights. It's hard to know what to make of this horse. He has a lot of talent but seems quite shy at showing it. Has a poor record at Cheltenham apart from a 2nd to Karabak and is probably going to be the one that got away when he romps in...... I think I will leave him out of the staking plan today.
0.5pts e/w Radium @14/1 (general)
Right I think that is it for today unless I have a brainwave on the last later on
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