Clarification

Ok another good night see our overall profits hit the +47.21pts. Just to clarify on the Arsenal game though. Just because I assume that the overall split of results is 60:20:20 doesn't mean I think this applies in each game. It was just that Arsenal were 4/6 (60% prob) to win the game according to the bookies and I was relatively happy with this assessment. If anything the bookies may put the home team in these ties slightly bigger than they should due to underestimating the home advantage. If Arsenal are better than a 4/6 shot that would hav had a negative impact on our Porto win bet but a positive impact on our lay of the draw. Given that we laid the draw for more than we backed Porto any error should work in our favour overall.

So on to tonight....

2pts Man Utd @ 1.78 (Betfair): Man Utd are the better team here and with home advantage and Rooney back I think they should be much shorter. Granted they don't have to go for the win but I still think they are unlikely to sit back until the last 10 mins at which stage if it's still 0-0 Milan will need 2 goals to progress.

0.5pts Lyon @ 10/1 (VC): I fully expect Real to win this game but I can't get away from thinking that Lyon have to have more than a 9% chance of victory. I think people actually over-emphasise how strong Real are at home. OK they have a 100% record there in the league (thanks to only playing Sevilla out of the top teams - which as you'll know they nearly messed up) and they did lose to a late Pato goal in their toughest CL tie. I think the longer it remains scoreless the higher the chances are that Lyon can catch them on the break.

0.5pts e/w Higuain to score first @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes): If Real do deliver as expected it could be wise to side with Higuain as first goalscorer. He may not grab as many headlines as Ronaldo but his record in front of goal is just as impressive this season. In a game where the total goals line is about 3.1 the each way part of this looks particularly attractive.

On the cards front the referees tonight are both very calm and sensible ref's so we will only play at reduced stakes - however it can't be ignored that 13 of the last 18 R16 2nd leg ties would have collected on this bet so:

1pt 4-6 Cards - Man U v Milan @5/4
1pt 4-6 cards - Real v Lyon @ 19/20

Just a quick note on Cheltenham:
1pt e/w Denman @ 4/1 (Will Hill): We backed him already at 7/2. At an even bigger price I can't resist adding to the stake.