4pts QPR @1/2 (Betfred): The second best team in the league at home to relegation fodder. This should be a straightforward task for QPR to get back on track after a lot of draws recently.
0.5pts e/w Mackie to score first 11/2 e/w (Bet365): In what should be a straight forward game for QPR there should be plenty of opportunities for him to add to his tally of 8 for the season.
1pt Wolves @ 21/10 (VCbet, Betfred): Blackpool continue to be over-rated and wolves can take the points here in the relegation 6 pointer.
1.5pts Mainz @ 2/1(bet365): Mainz have started to come back down to earth the last few week but seems a bit of an over-reaction to their troubles. BM continue to leak goals at an alarming rate and cannot be trusted to do the business here.
1pt over2.5 goals BM v Mainz 1.91(Betfair): as said above BM conceed a lot of goals (33 in 12 games to date) and so it could be a very open encouter on the cards here.
1pt Freiburg @9/2 (Stan James): should be about 10/3 for this game. Up against it here but the value is definitely on our side.
1pt Leverkusen @2/1 (bet365, VC, Lads): Not as much between these 2 sides as the prices suggest and Leverkusen can take advantage of home comforts.
1.5pts e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 13/5 (bet365): an ok price for him to score first but you are getting crazy value on him to score anytime.
Saturday, 20 November 2010
Expect another Commanding performance
2.2pts Imperial Commander @10/11 3.25 Haydock: Should have won this last year going down by a nose to Kauto. Has a good record fresh and is about a stone better than the rest of these horses. He is the best chaser in training and should be considerably shorter in my book.
1.5pts Zaynar @15/8 2.35 Ascot; Never a big fan of this guy but you can't argue with 3rd in both the Champion Hurdle and Aintree. Won this last year and with Karabak being cut back in trip you would have to think it will suit him more than his main rival. Nicholl's runner is obviously a good horse but he is being thrown in at the deep end here.
0.5pts e/w King Edmund @ 9/1 (bet365) : The favourite here could be anything and will probably win but I would make this guy the pick of the rest.
1pt Quinola Des Obeaux 30.0 (Betfair) Huntingdon 1.05: The favourite here always struggled to jump hurdles and I feel it is only a matter of time before that proves his undoing over fences. QdO has seen a racecourse much - 2 easy bumper wins before a flop at Cheltenham and then a good hurdle win before picking up an injury next time out. If fit to go here he can have a real crack at this.
Football to follow about 1pm
1.5pts Zaynar @15/8 2.35 Ascot; Never a big fan of this guy but you can't argue with 3rd in both the Champion Hurdle and Aintree. Won this last year and with Karabak being cut back in trip you would have to think it will suit him more than his main rival. Nicholl's runner is obviously a good horse but he is being thrown in at the deep end here.
0.5pts e/w King Edmund @ 9/1 (bet365) : The favourite here could be anything and will probably win but I would make this guy the pick of the rest.
1pt Quinola Des Obeaux 30.0 (Betfair) Huntingdon 1.05: The favourite here always struggled to jump hurdles and I feel it is only a matter of time before that proves his undoing over fences. QdO has seen a racecourse much - 2 easy bumper wins before a flop at Cheltenham and then a good hurdle win before picking up an injury next time out. If fit to go here he can have a real crack at this.
Football to follow about 1pm
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Part 3
2pts Cardiff @ evns: You are getting evens on what is arguably the best team in the Championship playing arguably the worst - get on.
0.5pts e/w Bothroyd to score first @11/2 (bet365): 11 goals in 16 games for far this season and should get plenty of chances today especially with Bellamy back in support
0.5pts e/w Bothroyd to score first @11/2 (bet365): 11 goals in 16 games for far this season and should get plenty of chances today especially with Bellamy back in support
Saturday Gamble part 2
0.75pts e/w Ballyfitz @ 12/1(bet365, Lads) 1.55 Cheltenham; Runs well fresh and is of an 8lb lower mark than when he came 4th in the Paddy Power last year. Jumping is as ever a concern but a leading contenders and def worth a bet at this price.
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
Saturday Gamble
OK going to be quick before the early kick off and racing start - this is part 1 of 2
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
Saturday, 30 October 2010
Satur
2pts Tidal Bay 11/4 - 2.50 Wetherby: This horse should be favourite here. On a line of form through Big Bucks everyone else has a bit to find on him. He's a very classy horse who has still put in some decent displays over the last 2 years despite not being at his best.
0.75pts e/w Knockara Beau @ 10/1(Lads, bet365, WH) - 3.25 Wetherby: There are no superstars in this and KB is the horse most likely to be improveing after a good end to last season including a 4th in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty.
0.5pts e/w Don't Pay the Ferryman @ 8/1 (Boyles) - 5.10 Wetherby: Nice e/w value on a decent horse in this 16 runner handicap.
2pts Othermix @ 7/2 - Ascot 2.25 - Should be clear favourite here. Was second in the Jewson at the end of last season where he had China Rock behind. Previously had won G3 and placed in G1 hurdles over in France. Only a matter of time before getting the win he deserves over fences.
1pt King Edmund 13/2 (Stan James): Great novice chaser last season who made the frame on every completed start winning 3/5.
1.5pts Catch Me 7/2 (paddy Power): This is a 2 horse race that I expect Capt CB to win but 7/2 is way too big for a horse this good in a match bet.
0.75pts e/w Knockara Beau @ 10/1(Lads, bet365, WH) - 3.25 Wetherby: There are no superstars in this and KB is the horse most likely to be improveing after a good end to last season including a 4th in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty.
0.5pts e/w Don't Pay the Ferryman @ 8/1 (Boyles) - 5.10 Wetherby: Nice e/w value on a decent horse in this 16 runner handicap.
2pts Othermix @ 7/2 - Ascot 2.25 - Should be clear favourite here. Was second in the Jewson at the end of last season where he had China Rock behind. Previously had won G3 and placed in G1 hurdles over in France. Only a matter of time before getting the win he deserves over fences.
1pt King Edmund 13/2 (Stan James): Great novice chaser last season who made the frame on every completed start winning 3/5.
1.5pts Catch Me 7/2 (paddy Power): This is a 2 horse race that I expect Capt CB to win but 7/2 is way too big for a horse this good in a match bet.
Friday, 29 October 2010
Weekend Football
Quick football blog with racing to follow in the morning:
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Saturday, 23 October 2010
Saturday
Ok I'm out of the country at the minute so the explanations will be brief today:
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
CL Wed
To date
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
Saturday, 2 October 2010
Saturday Racing
2pts Goldwaki 7/4 2.40Longchamp (general): This is a genuine G1 horse and has some decent placed efforts behind Behkebad and Planteur (the top 2 in the betting for tomorrows Arc). He will relish the extra 2f and the mudbath that Longchamp seems to be this weekend. Given that Fabre has half the field here the fact that Peslier is riding indicates there should be nothing waiting in the long grass here.
1pt Saphresa 9/2 (Betfred) 3.00 Newmarket: Won this race last year on her way to a tilt at one of Japan's big races in Kyoto. Back to form the last day winning a G3 in France easily. She can take advatage of Music Shows long hard season and Spacious may once again have to settle for 2nd.
1pt Bob Lingo 3/1 (Will Hill) 4.10 Gowran: The favourite here hasn't jumped a fence before at a racecourse and the rest of the runners (those who've actually managed to complete a chase) have had pretty average results, none of which are up to the standard set by Bob Lingo in coming 2nd to Whatuthink last season when he had a few useful horses behind him.
0.5pts e/w Tinakellylad 16/1 (VC, Boyles, Hills) 4.45 Gowran: Has some useful form last season including a win over Kempes. Has a lot of weight today but will love the ground and has the class to feature here.
1pt Saphresa 9/2 (Betfred) 3.00 Newmarket: Won this race last year on her way to a tilt at one of Japan's big races in Kyoto. Back to form the last day winning a G3 in France easily. She can take advatage of Music Shows long hard season and Spacious may once again have to settle for 2nd.
1pt Bob Lingo 3/1 (Will Hill) 4.10 Gowran: The favourite here hasn't jumped a fence before at a racecourse and the rest of the runners (those who've actually managed to complete a chase) have had pretty average results, none of which are up to the standard set by Bob Lingo in coming 2nd to Whatuthink last season when he had a few useful horses behind him.
0.5pts e/w Tinakellylad 16/1 (VC, Boyles, Hills) 4.45 Gowran: Has some useful form last season including a win over Kempes. Has a lot of weight today but will love the ground and has the class to feature here.
Friday, 1 October 2010
Madchester prices
OK so after the first week back the results are as follows:
HR: - 0.79pts
Football: +31.99pts
Total: +31.2pts
This is just a football entry - any racing tips will be added tomorrow hopefully by lunchtime.
2pts Man Utd 5/6 (Will Hill): I would have this price closer to 4/6 than 5/6. Ok part of the drift is Rooney's absence but goals haven't exactly been the problem for Utd away from home this season, their problems have been due to the 7 sloppy goals they have conceded. On that front Rio should return to the back 4 to bring a bit of stability there and that will be a massive boost for Utd in this game. Given that I have no doubts about steaming in here and trusting in Utd to follow up their midweek clean sheet with another good defensive performance here.
3pts Man City 1.48 (Betfair): Again I find myself opposing Newcastle - for some reason they seem to be over-estimated by the bookies and every week there seems to be value in opposing them. This week its City's turn, I reckon 4/11 is about fair for City in this game, to see them as big as 4/9 is quite a shock. Its' hard to imagine any of the rest of the big 4 being this big at home to Newcastle.
1pts Tottenham @ evns (general): Spurs are the better of these 2 sides and should be odds-on for this game. Not entirely convinced that Houllier is going to make such an instant impact and although Villa are a team I quite like with some exciting talent I'm happy to oppose here against a team that is currently one or two places better a season.
1pt Everton draw no bet 1.91 (Stan James): The 17/10 for the Everton win is way too big here in terms of season long expectations however at the moment the big problem they have is scoring goals. Until they resolve that problem it's hard to get over-involved on them to win games so we are going to go with the draw no bet option here. They won't be easy to break down and if they do nick a goal it could be enough to put an end to Birminghams unbeaten home run.
0.75pts Bolton @ 14/5 (Will Hill): Seems an over-reaction to West Broms win at the Emirates last week. I have Bolton as a slightly better team than West Brom whereas according to these prices WB are very slightly better than Bolton. Enough of a difference for a small involvement.
1pt Schalke @ 2.35 (Unibet): Schalke had a horrible start to the season but have started to turn it around in the last few games including when landing the odds for us in midweek. There is still a slight over-reaction to their poor start in the odds so we'll trust in them to deliver again this weekend against relegation candidates Nurnberg.
1pt Sporting Gijon @ 4.0 (Betfair): Zaragoza are rated the better team here according to the match odds but in my opinion Gijon are the better team and have suffered from a tough start to the season playing Barca, Valencia and Atletico in their first 5 games. I think they should be at least 1/2pt shorter.
1pt Getafe @23/20 (VCbet, Will Hill): The big question here is whether Hercules are really better than everybody including me gave them credit for or is it a temporary blip due to players overperforming against the biggest names. I'm still tempted to think its the latter. Hercules beat Barca and Sevilla but got 1 point from their 2 games against minnows Bilbao and Zaragoza. I think with the focus elsewhere Hercules will revert to their normal level of performance and Getafe can capitalise.
0.5pts Levante @4/1 (general): 2 of the worst teams in the division but not as much of a difference between them as the odds suggest. Worth a small investment on underdogs here.
HR: - 0.79pts
Football: +31.99pts
Total: +31.2pts
This is just a football entry - any racing tips will be added tomorrow hopefully by lunchtime.
2pts Man Utd 5/6 (Will Hill): I would have this price closer to 4/6 than 5/6. Ok part of the drift is Rooney's absence but goals haven't exactly been the problem for Utd away from home this season, their problems have been due to the 7 sloppy goals they have conceded. On that front Rio should return to the back 4 to bring a bit of stability there and that will be a massive boost for Utd in this game. Given that I have no doubts about steaming in here and trusting in Utd to follow up their midweek clean sheet with another good defensive performance here.
3pts Man City 1.48 (Betfair): Again I find myself opposing Newcastle - for some reason they seem to be over-estimated by the bookies and every week there seems to be value in opposing them. This week its City's turn, I reckon 4/11 is about fair for City in this game, to see them as big as 4/9 is quite a shock. Its' hard to imagine any of the rest of the big 4 being this big at home to Newcastle.
1pts Tottenham @ evns (general): Spurs are the better of these 2 sides and should be odds-on for this game. Not entirely convinced that Houllier is going to make such an instant impact and although Villa are a team I quite like with some exciting talent I'm happy to oppose here against a team that is currently one or two places better a season.
1pt Everton draw no bet 1.91 (Stan James): The 17/10 for the Everton win is way too big here in terms of season long expectations however at the moment the big problem they have is scoring goals. Until they resolve that problem it's hard to get over-involved on them to win games so we are going to go with the draw no bet option here. They won't be easy to break down and if they do nick a goal it could be enough to put an end to Birminghams unbeaten home run.
0.75pts Bolton @ 14/5 (Will Hill): Seems an over-reaction to West Broms win at the Emirates last week. I have Bolton as a slightly better team than West Brom whereas according to these prices WB are very slightly better than Bolton. Enough of a difference for a small involvement.
1pt Schalke @ 2.35 (Unibet): Schalke had a horrible start to the season but have started to turn it around in the last few games including when landing the odds for us in midweek. There is still a slight over-reaction to their poor start in the odds so we'll trust in them to deliver again this weekend against relegation candidates Nurnberg.
1pt Sporting Gijon @ 4.0 (Betfair): Zaragoza are rated the better team here according to the match odds but in my opinion Gijon are the better team and have suffered from a tough start to the season playing Barca, Valencia and Atletico in their first 5 games. I think they should be at least 1/2pt shorter.
1pt Getafe @23/20 (VCbet, Will Hill): The big question here is whether Hercules are really better than everybody including me gave them credit for or is it a temporary blip due to players overperforming against the biggest names. I'm still tempted to think its the latter. Hercules beat Barca and Sevilla but got 1 point from their 2 games against minnows Bilbao and Zaragoza. I think with the focus elsewhere Hercules will revert to their normal level of performance and Getafe can capitalise.
0.5pts Levante @4/1 (general): 2 of the worst teams in the division but not as much of a difference between them as the odds suggest. Worth a small investment on underdogs here.
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
CL Wednesday
OK not as much to get involved with tonight but a few lenient ref about so we'll have a little dabble there:
Sell booking @38 for 0.2pts per pt Man U v Valencia (betfair): Viktor Kassai has a lot of experience as a European referee and has never been one to brandish cards lightly. Averages under 30 points a game so get involved here.
Sell booking @39 for 0.15pts per pt Rangers v Bursaspor(Sportingindex): Gumienny doesn't have a huge amount of experience but a large portion of his games end with no bookings at all giving him an average make-up of 20pts.
Sell booking @36 for 0.15pts per pt Rubin v Barca(Sportingindex):I don't have much info on Cakir but on the 6 games I can find he has reffed he has given out a total of 6 yellow card averaging 10pts a game with 3 games being card free. That is enough to get us involved here.
1pt Schalke @ 2.7 (Betfair): I think people are over-reacting to Schalke's bad start to the season and they have improved in the last couple of games. Benfica are not a great team and for them to be rated so far above Schalke seems wrong to me (Schalke would be roughly 6/5 if teams were rated equal). Sportingindex have Schalke 0.25goals better than Benfica for this game which seems closer to the mark. Take advantage of the discrepancy in the fixed odds market and back the Germans.
0.5pts Werder Bremen @7.2 (Betfair): Again the strength of the German league seems underestimated here to me. Inter weren't exactly impressive drawing away to Twente while Werder showed a lot of resilience to come back from a horrendous start against Spurs the last day. A small bet on the Germans seems called for.
Sell booking @38 for 0.2pts per pt Man U v Valencia (betfair): Viktor Kassai has a lot of experience as a European referee and has never been one to brandish cards lightly. Averages under 30 points a game so get involved here.
Sell booking @39 for 0.15pts per pt Rangers v Bursaspor(Sportingindex): Gumienny doesn't have a huge amount of experience but a large portion of his games end with no bookings at all giving him an average make-up of 20pts.
Sell booking @36 for 0.15pts per pt Rubin v Barca(Sportingindex):I don't have much info on Cakir but on the 6 games I can find he has reffed he has given out a total of 6 yellow card averaging 10pts a game with 3 games being card free. That is enough to get us involved here.
1pt Schalke @ 2.7 (Betfair): I think people are over-reacting to Schalke's bad start to the season and they have improved in the last couple of games. Benfica are not a great team and for them to be rated so far above Schalke seems wrong to me (Schalke would be roughly 6/5 if teams were rated equal). Sportingindex have Schalke 0.25goals better than Benfica for this game which seems closer to the mark. Take advantage of the discrepancy in the fixed odds market and back the Germans.
0.5pts Werder Bremen @7.2 (Betfair): Again the strength of the German league seems underestimated here to me. Inter weren't exactly impressive drawing away to Twente while Werder showed a lot of resilience to come back from a horrendous start against Spurs the last day. A small bet on the Germans seems called for.
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
CL Tuesday
OK so back to some of the old reliables for our CL bets tonight.
Sell bookings for 0.2pts a point @36 Ajax v Milan (Sportingindex): Byrch is one of the most lenient referees in Europe with an average booking make-up of under 22. Nothing here to suggest the line should be so much higher. Maybe a line of 30 would be more in line given the evenly matched nature of this tie.
Buy bookings for 0.1pts a point @38 Chelsea v Marseille (Sportingindex): DeBleekere on the other hand has averaged nearly 46pts a game since the 05/06 season. Easy to see 5 or 6 cards here in what will be a tighter match than most people expect.
1.5pts under 2.5 goals - Auxerre v Real @1.825 (bet365): Real have conceeded 2 goals in 8 games so far this season and are not nearly so gung-ho under Mourinho. They are playing away from home against one of the most defensive teams in France. Everything points to a low scoring affair.
0.8pts Real to win 1-0 @ 7.0 (betfair)
0.8pts Real to win 2-0 @ 6/1 (Betfred)
0.4pts Real to win 3-0 @14.0 (betfair)
Real can prevail in what should be a tight affair and with 6 clean sheets behind them already back them to repeat the trick here without going to town on the opposition.
1.5pts Milan @3.25 (Betfair): there has been a massive gamble on Ajax today. Yesterday this game was very much a case of 7/4 each of 2 but in the fixed odds markets Ajax are now 7/5 and Milan are 9/4. The spread firms are holding firm on their opening chalks so I'l going to hope they are the one's that are right and bail in on Milan.
0.5pts e/w James Mackie to score first QPR v Millwall @ 9/2 (bet365): Has really come into his own since signing for QPR. Has hit 8 in 8 so far this season including a brace in both of his last 2 games. Slight bit of value on him getting on the scoresheet again tonight.
Sell bookings for 0.2pts a point @36 Ajax v Milan (Sportingindex): Byrch is one of the most lenient referees in Europe with an average booking make-up of under 22. Nothing here to suggest the line should be so much higher. Maybe a line of 30 would be more in line given the evenly matched nature of this tie.
Buy bookings for 0.1pts a point @38 Chelsea v Marseille (Sportingindex): DeBleekere on the other hand has averaged nearly 46pts a game since the 05/06 season. Easy to see 5 or 6 cards here in what will be a tighter match than most people expect.
1.5pts under 2.5 goals - Auxerre v Real @1.825 (bet365): Real have conceeded 2 goals in 8 games so far this season and are not nearly so gung-ho under Mourinho. They are playing away from home against one of the most defensive teams in France. Everything points to a low scoring affair.
0.8pts Real to win 1-0 @ 7.0 (betfair)
0.8pts Real to win 2-0 @ 6/1 (Betfred)
0.4pts Real to win 3-0 @14.0 (betfair)
Real can prevail in what should be a tight affair and with 6 clean sheets behind them already back them to repeat the trick here without going to town on the opposition.
1.5pts Milan @3.25 (Betfair): there has been a massive gamble on Ajax today. Yesterday this game was very much a case of 7/4 each of 2 but in the fixed odds markets Ajax are now 7/5 and Milan are 9/4. The spread firms are holding firm on their opening chalks so I'l going to hope they are the one's that are right and bail in on Milan.
0.5pts e/w James Mackie to score first QPR v Millwall @ 9/2 (bet365): Has really come into his own since signing for QPR. Has hit 8 in 8 so far this season including a brace in both of his last 2 games. Slight bit of value on him getting on the scoresheet again tonight.
Sunday, 26 September 2010
Loco Football
I thought I was done for the day but the late kick offs in La Liga look to be priced pretty crazy to me.
3pts Sevilla 2.78 (Betfair): This price implies that Sevilla are only about 10-12 points better than Hercules over the whole season. Lets not get carried away with Hercules' shock win over Barca where they basically copied Mourinho's Inter strategy for beating Barca. This is a team that may be disciplined and well organised but they are not going to be finishing the season in the top half. Sevilla should be in around the evens mark for this game by my reckoning. Get involved!
3pts Atletico 1.66 (Betfair): This price should be 1/2 max. Atletico have had a good start to the season and will be looking to try to get themselves a CL spot come the end of the season. Zaragoza will be lucky if they are not relegated. Given that 4/6 looks overly generous.
3pts Sevilla 2.78 (Betfair): This price implies that Sevilla are only about 10-12 points better than Hercules over the whole season. Lets not get carried away with Hercules' shock win over Barca where they basically copied Mourinho's Inter strategy for beating Barca. This is a team that may be disciplined and well organised but they are not going to be finishing the season in the top half. Sevilla should be in around the evens mark for this game by my reckoning. Get involved!
3pts Atletico 1.66 (Betfair): This price should be 1/2 max. Atletico have had a good start to the season and will be looking to try to get themselves a CL spot come the end of the season. Zaragoza will be lucky if they are not relegated. Given that 4/6 looks overly generous.
Saturday, 25 September 2010
Back in the game!
OK a solid start +5.45pts from yesterday (Footie +4.24 Racing +1.21). A few more speculative bets for tomorrow on the football>
0.5pts Newcastle/Stoke HT/FT @50/1 (VCbet): Stoke are actually slightly under-rated by the bookies in the bettting even based on the revised spread lines there is very little between these 2 teams and so anything above 3/1 is value in the match odds. Given Stoke's tendancy to concede early goals and lay siege to the opposition in the second half it could pay to side with this long-shot bet. David John on Sporting Life has highlighted this tendancy but I think he is missing some value by siding with the Newcastle/Draw option rather than having faith in Stoke to repeat the trick they did against Villa last week. Given that this result is currently trading on Betfair at 40/1 we are happy to get involved.
0.75pts Stoke @17/5 (VCbet): As mentioned above the very biggest Stoke should be would be 3/1 so we'll have a little nibble at the 17/5 on offer.
2pts Mikhail Glinka @10.0 (Betfair) 4.10 Ascot: The favourite in this race is very good comfortably beating the useful Holberg the last time out and going under by 2Ls to Melbourne Cup contender Sans Frontiers in the race before. However the second fav is nothing much to write home about with some pretty average performances in listed and group 3 races. The pick of which is being comfortably held by the fav 2 runs back. Mikhail Glinka is an ex- O'Brien horse with class written all over him but just not quite at the level of Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer. He should have won a group 3 in Leopardstown first time out but was undone by a very muddling early pace. He then got his head in front in a 2m G3 before being sold as surplus to requirments at Ballydoyle and the next he was seen was being shipped half way around the world to compete in the Russian Derby in Moscow where he flopped. The form might not be eye-catching but his turn of foot is. This is a Group 1 horse running in a G3 as a stepping stone to greater things in my opinion.If can can get back near his best he can account for a pretty good G3 horse in Laaheb and even if he isn't I still think he will beat most of the rest of these.
0.5pts Newcastle/Stoke HT/FT @50/1 (VCbet): Stoke are actually slightly under-rated by the bookies in the bettting even based on the revised spread lines there is very little between these 2 teams and so anything above 3/1 is value in the match odds. Given Stoke's tendancy to concede early goals and lay siege to the opposition in the second half it could pay to side with this long-shot bet. David John on Sporting Life has highlighted this tendancy but I think he is missing some value by siding with the Newcastle/Draw option rather than having faith in Stoke to repeat the trick they did against Villa last week. Given that this result is currently trading on Betfair at 40/1 we are happy to get involved.
0.75pts Stoke @17/5 (VCbet): As mentioned above the very biggest Stoke should be would be 3/1 so we'll have a little nibble at the 17/5 on offer.
2pts Mikhail Glinka @10.0 (Betfair) 4.10 Ascot: The favourite in this race is very good comfortably beating the useful Holberg the last time out and going under by 2Ls to Melbourne Cup contender Sans Frontiers in the race before. However the second fav is nothing much to write home about with some pretty average performances in listed and group 3 races. The pick of which is being comfortably held by the fav 2 runs back. Mikhail Glinka is an ex- O'Brien horse with class written all over him but just not quite at the level of Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer. He should have won a group 3 in Leopardstown first time out but was undone by a very muddling early pace. He then got his head in front in a 2m G3 before being sold as surplus to requirments at Ballydoyle and the next he was seen was being shipped half way around the world to compete in the Russian Derby in Moscow where he flopped. The form might not be eye-catching but his turn of foot is. This is a Group 1 horse running in a G3 as a stepping stone to greater things in my opinion.If can can get back near his best he can account for a pretty good G3 horse in Laaheb and even if he isn't I still think he will beat most of the rest of these.
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
New Season new start
OK we finished last year with a slightly disappointing profit of 29.45pts. We are now back starting from scratch again and this year not only will there be a running total but it will be split between racing football and other sports to see if there are any holes that need plugging in our betting strategy. I am finally back in Ireland semi-permanently and so there will be at least one blog each weekend with a midweek blog for football or any top class mid week racing.
I'll start off with a few match bets for Saturdays football.
1.5pts Man City 13/5 (bet365, VCbet) : Classic case of a team being over-estimated due to hype when putting away nonsense teams. Chelsea have looked impressive so far this season but they could barely have had an easier start playing 5 of the 6 worst rated teams in the division. The over-reaction to their perfect start has been massive. If this game happened mid season you would expect the bookies to make it perhaps 7/4 each side however here they have Chelsea as 6/5 fav away from home against a genuine top 4 team.
1pt Birmingham 5/6 (general): This is a fairly marginal call according to the spread firms season points expectations. But it's hard to pass up 5/6 on a team that hasn't been beaten at home for a year against possibly the worst team in the league.
2pts Sunderland +1.25 Asian Handicap @1.87 (VCbet): Torres has gotten a lot of flak recently for being off form but it hasn't helped him that his team-mates can't seem to pass the ball past midfield. Also the switch from zonal marking back to man marking has left them looking vunerable to any ball into the box. Sunderland have had a reasonable solid start to the season and can play their part in some of tomorrows worst TV viewing. I expect this to be a reasonably tight game and if Liverpool do turn it around I think they will be happy to win by the minimum. With this bet we win half if that happens and scoop the lot in the event of a draw or better for Sunderland.
1pt Borussia Dortmund 11/10 (Ladbrokes): Dortmund will be pushing Bayern all the way for the title this year while St. Pauli will be occupying themselves trying to avoid relegation. Given that odds against on Dortmund looks a little too generous
1.5pts Monaco draw no bet 11/8 (general): The match odds on this game don't seem to take into account the gulf in class between these 2 teams however given that Monaco have drawn 5 of their 6 games so far and neither teams are prolific goalscorers it makes sense to keep the draw onside and bet without it.
I'll put up some bets for Ascot now but I will hopefully have a few more racing bets in the morning once the other meetings are priced up.
0.5pts e/w Klammer 16/1 (general) - Ascot 2.30: This is a pretty weak group 2 and it is hard to make a case for a lot of the horses here. The favourite is a classy horse but a lot of hype surrounding him as a result of walking away with a nonsense race a few weeks back where his only real challenger was withdrawn at the start. Klammer won a listed race in France the last time out and had 2 reasonable runs in G2's before that. I think he can give the favourite the most to do and if the hotpot does turn out to be all hype he can land us a nice pot.
2pts White Moonstone 2.0 (betfair) - Ascot 3.05: Yes she would prefer a straight course and firmer ground but this immensly classy filly is good enough to win without that. Expect her to be a very warm favourite for the 1000 guineas after this race tomorrow.
2pts Makfi 10/11 (Stan James) - Ascot 4.15: Phenomenal winner of the guineas from Canford Cliffs in 3rd who had Rip Van Winkle well held the last time they met. Has a legitimate excuse for his one racecourse defeat when scoping dirty in the St. James Palace Stakes and put in a solid performance to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy the last day. One thing to note it is quite possible this horse will drift during the day (it is French after all and so not to be trusted by the English betting public). It is quite likely there will be a bit of money for Frankie on Poets Voice and I there will be those who still rate RVW on what he did last year rather than this years performances. That being the case if you back the horse early be sure to do it with a bookie with best odds guarantee.
OK thats all until the morning, happy punting!
I'll start off with a few match bets for Saturdays football.
1.5pts Man City 13/5 (bet365, VCbet) : Classic case of a team being over-estimated due to hype when putting away nonsense teams. Chelsea have looked impressive so far this season but they could barely have had an easier start playing 5 of the 6 worst rated teams in the division. The over-reaction to their perfect start has been massive. If this game happened mid season you would expect the bookies to make it perhaps 7/4 each side however here they have Chelsea as 6/5 fav away from home against a genuine top 4 team.
1pt Birmingham 5/6 (general): This is a fairly marginal call according to the spread firms season points expectations. But it's hard to pass up 5/6 on a team that hasn't been beaten at home for a year against possibly the worst team in the league.
2pts Sunderland +1.25 Asian Handicap @1.87 (VCbet): Torres has gotten a lot of flak recently for being off form but it hasn't helped him that his team-mates can't seem to pass the ball past midfield. Also the switch from zonal marking back to man marking has left them looking vunerable to any ball into the box. Sunderland have had a reasonable solid start to the season and can play their part in some of tomorrows worst TV viewing. I expect this to be a reasonably tight game and if Liverpool do turn it around I think they will be happy to win by the minimum. With this bet we win half if that happens and scoop the lot in the event of a draw or better for Sunderland.
1pt Borussia Dortmund 11/10 (Ladbrokes): Dortmund will be pushing Bayern all the way for the title this year while St. Pauli will be occupying themselves trying to avoid relegation. Given that odds against on Dortmund looks a little too generous
1.5pts Monaco draw no bet 11/8 (general): The match odds on this game don't seem to take into account the gulf in class between these 2 teams however given that Monaco have drawn 5 of their 6 games so far and neither teams are prolific goalscorers it makes sense to keep the draw onside and bet without it.
I'll put up some bets for Ascot now but I will hopefully have a few more racing bets in the morning once the other meetings are priced up.
0.5pts e/w Klammer 16/1 (general) - Ascot 2.30: This is a pretty weak group 2 and it is hard to make a case for a lot of the horses here. The favourite is a classy horse but a lot of hype surrounding him as a result of walking away with a nonsense race a few weeks back where his only real challenger was withdrawn at the start. Klammer won a listed race in France the last time out and had 2 reasonable runs in G2's before that. I think he can give the favourite the most to do and if the hotpot does turn out to be all hype he can land us a nice pot.
2pts White Moonstone 2.0 (betfair) - Ascot 3.05: Yes she would prefer a straight course and firmer ground but this immensly classy filly is good enough to win without that. Expect her to be a very warm favourite for the 1000 guineas after this race tomorrow.
2pts Makfi 10/11 (Stan James) - Ascot 4.15: Phenomenal winner of the guineas from Canford Cliffs in 3rd who had Rip Van Winkle well held the last time they met. Has a legitimate excuse for his one racecourse defeat when scoping dirty in the St. James Palace Stakes and put in a solid performance to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy the last day. One thing to note it is quite possible this horse will drift during the day (it is French after all and so not to be trusted by the English betting public). It is quite likely there will be a bit of money for Frankie on Poets Voice and I there will be those who still rate RVW on what he did last year rather than this years performances. That being the case if you back the horse early be sure to do it with a bookie with best odds guarantee.
OK thats all until the morning, happy punting!
Monday, 26 July 2010
Galway and racing of a different kind
OK today sees the first day of Galway and despite it's reputation as a bookies benefit we will be trying to make a few quid out of it for the first 2 days at least. However this week also sees the European athlethics championships take place and as usual the bookies don't really seem to know how to price it up.
We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.
1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)
The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting
1pt Lemaitre 7/4
Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m
2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4
And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.
In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)
In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.
0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)
Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee
1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.
Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off
0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)
We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.
1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)
The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting
1pt Lemaitre 7/4
Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m
2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4
And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.
In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)
In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.
0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)
Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee
1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.
Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off
0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)
Wednesday, 14 July 2010
Back home - to the home of golf
OK not a fantastic WC and I didn't really get to post much during it although for the first week that was probably a blessing in disguise. I'm back home now temporarily so I'm hoping to put regular updates up for the next 2 weeks. After that I will total the P&L for the year and reset to 0 for the new season. I will be on the move for the new season so if there is not much posted during August you know why but from Champion Stakes day in September onwards there will be at least one post each weekend and hopefully regular midweek posts for any key race meetings and midweek football. So on to the golf
I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.
Based on this the 7/1 that Hills were offering looks lunacy. Unfortunately that is gone now but there is still plenty of value in the 13/2 still available.
1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)
Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)
Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1
0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.
Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts
For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.
I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.
| Date | Time | Weather | Temp | Wind | Visibility | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Speed | Gust | |||||
| Wed 14 Jul | 2200 |  | 13 °C | NNE | 20 mph | Moderate | |
| Thu 15 Jul | 0100 | | 13 °C | NNE | 17 mph | Good | |
| 0400 |  | 13 °C | NNE | 13 mph | Poor | ||
| 0700 |  | 13 °C | NE | 9 mph | Poor | ||
| 1000 |  | 14 °C | E | 3 mph | Good | ||
| 1300 | | 17 °C | S | 2 mph | 15 mph | Poor | |
| 1600 | | 19 °C | SSW | 12 mph | 24 mph | Poor | |
| 1900 |  | 18 °C | SSW | 14 mph | Very Good | ||
| Night | | 11 °C | S | 15 mph | Poor | ||
1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)
Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)
Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1
0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.
Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts
For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.
Monday, 7 June 2010
Outrights and specials
Ok so if you look at the history of the golden boot the winner almost always come from a team that has reached at least the semi-finals which isn't really that surprising given that you get 2 extra games if you are a QF winner rather than a loser and also winning teams will tend to be scoring more goals. Another key thing to look at though is where the goals will come from in the group stage. No winner since Stoichkov has won without scoring at least 3 goals in the group stages. so a few easy games early on are key. Also worth bearing in mind that for the really strong teams who have qualified after 2 games they may be resting their key players in the 3rd game.
It is not hard to see why Villa is favourite playing for Spain with a strong supply and a game against Honduras to boost his tally. However when you look at the match odds Brazil are the team with the easiest game on paper versus North Korea and are also odds on favourites in their other 2 games. They have to be fancied to go close and with Fabiano as their only out and out striker compared to a Spanish team which will be sharing the goals around. Fabiano was top goalscorer in South American qualifying and is available at 4 points bigger than Villa - get on!
1.5pts Fabiano 12/1 (general)
Another player that does look interesting is Gilardino. I think this Italy team is too old to be retaining their trophy but I do expect them to hang around for a while and if Gilardino get the nod up front the 14/1 on him being one of the top 4 goalscorers is definitely interesting when you throw in the prospect of a game against New Zealand in the group stages.
0.5pts Gilardino Top 4 goalscorers 15.0 (Betfair)
Sticking with goalscorers VC have some interesting match bets priced up although they have taken down the best which was RVP vs Tevez. There is still value is backing Rooney at 10/11 to outscore Ronaldo. He is likely to get a few more games and England have been performing a lot better than the Portuguese recently.
1.5pts Rooney (v Ronaldo) 10/11 (VC)
And now on from goals to disallowed goals. You can sell disallowed goals with sportingindex at 24.5 which looks massive to me (esp when you consider this does not include extra time)
Sell "Shocking decision ref' at 24.5 for 1.5pts a goals (sportingindex)
It is not hard to see why Villa is favourite playing for Spain with a strong supply and a game against Honduras to boost his tally. However when you look at the match odds Brazil are the team with the easiest game on paper versus North Korea and are also odds on favourites in their other 2 games. They have to be fancied to go close and with Fabiano as their only out and out striker compared to a Spanish team which will be sharing the goals around. Fabiano was top goalscorer in South American qualifying and is available at 4 points bigger than Villa - get on!
1.5pts Fabiano 12/1 (general)
Another player that does look interesting is Gilardino. I think this Italy team is too old to be retaining their trophy but I do expect them to hang around for a while and if Gilardino get the nod up front the 14/1 on him being one of the top 4 goalscorers is definitely interesting when you throw in the prospect of a game against New Zealand in the group stages.
0.5pts Gilardino Top 4 goalscorers 15.0 (Betfair)
Sticking with goalscorers VC have some interesting match bets priced up although they have taken down the best which was RVP vs Tevez. There is still value is backing Rooney at 10/11 to outscore Ronaldo. He is likely to get a few more games and England have been performing a lot better than the Portuguese recently.
1.5pts Rooney (v Ronaldo) 10/11 (VC)
And now on from goals to disallowed goals. You can sell disallowed goals with sportingindex at 24.5 which looks massive to me (esp when you consider this does not include extra time)
Sell "Shocking decision ref' at 24.5 for 1.5pts a goals (sportingindex)
Saturday, 22 May 2010
15 days to go
OK so the weekend has boosted us back up to +47.8pts.
Now its time to start on the WC. Just a quick overview on our betting strategy for the next few weeks. As well as the usual search for over-hyped teams and over-reactions we will be looking a lot at the chances of games being draws. Some stage of the competition are gravy for opposing draws and others are just as good for backing the draw. In the group stages I will also be looking at the impact of the game order on the group outcomes. Altitude will be considered as from my own experience of trying to run up a hill here indicates that it may be more of a factor than people anticipate. I'm going to start with the groups preview then move on to the outrights and specials markets and after that we will start looking at individual games.
OK so lets start.
Group A - this is a messy group. France should prevail due to the weakness of the other teams. South Africa are hosts and the atmosphere will be electric so they could spring a surprise and get second, but this is not a group I have any interest in betting on.
Group B: My general thoery on game order is that it is a big advantage for a team fighting for second to play the weakest team first and athe strongest team last. Several reasons. Firstly winning the first game while the team you are fighting against for second play the strongest team means you go into the second game against them with 3 points and quite happy with a draw while they have zero and are desperately in need of points on the board. This puts all the pressure on the other team which can only be a positive thing. Playing the strongest team last meana their is a reasonable chance they will already have 6 points and may rest some key players to avoid injury/suspension especially given that all yellow cards are wiped after the group stage. Greece play Korea in their first game. Korea struggle to defend set pieces - one of Greeces key strengths. An opening win for the Greeks puts them in good nick going into the game against Nigeria where a draw should be sufficient. If Argentina win their opening 2 games it is very unlikely Mascherano will play the 3rd game and if I was manager neither would Messi. So Greece have to be the call here to sneak second place.
1.5pts Greece to qualify 6/4 (Coral)
Group C: Again in this group the USA are at a disadvantage through playing England first. I can make a case for both Slovenia and Algeria qualifying as I think both are vastly under-rated. It should be remembered that Slovenia qualified based on a 2 leg playoff win over Russia while Algeria beat Egypt (ANC Winners) to get here.
1.5pts USA not to qualify 5/4 (888sport)
0.5pts Algeria to qualify 4/1 (general)
Group D: In this group I really like Ghana. They went into the African Cup with most of their big name players injured but the young players from last years U-19 winning WC team stepped up to the mark and produced a very cohesive performance to get 3rd. If the coach gets the balance between youth and experience right here Ghana could be the most successful of the African teams at this world cup. However looking at the prices there seems some inconsistency. Ghana and Serbia are roughly the same prices to beat Germany and Australia, to qualify Serbia are 1.97 and Ghana are 2.32 but in the match between the 2 sides you can get 3.7 on Ghana to win and 2.32 on Serbia so I'm going to be ignoring the to qualify market and have a big bet on Ghana to win the opener - will post that in the game preview section.
Group E: No bet here. Denmark are the ssecond best team but do have a tough opener against the Dutch. I think they will be strong enough mentally to overcome that disadvantage but not looking to get any cash involved.
Group F: Slovakia have everything in their favour here in terms of game order and for a team that topped their Euro qualifying group to be such underdogs to Paraguay seems incredible to me. Their is even a chance that Slovakia could be good enough to squeeze past an aging Italian side for first. SO with Italy and Slovakia fighting it out for first and second backing Paraguay for 3rd looks a good bet to me.
2pts Paraguay to come 3rd 5/2 (Bodog)
1pt Slovakia to win Group F 15/2 (VC)
Group G: Very similar price anomaly to the Ghana group here. I personally think Sven is the perfect manager to get the best out of Ivory Coasts underperforming stars. Portugal have been disappointing in qualifying and as I write this I see they've just had a 0-0 draw with the mighty Cape Verde Islands although I'm not sure who they had playing. Looking at the prices though the best value is again is having a big bet on Ivory Coast to win the opener against Portugal.
Group H: Here Chile have the ideal game order with a high probabilty of facing a weakened Spanish team in their final game. Given that I think they have to be backed to qualify at Switzerlands expense.
1.5pts Chile to qualify 8/11 (Coral, extrabet)
Now its time to start on the WC. Just a quick overview on our betting strategy for the next few weeks. As well as the usual search for over-hyped teams and over-reactions we will be looking a lot at the chances of games being draws. Some stage of the competition are gravy for opposing draws and others are just as good for backing the draw. In the group stages I will also be looking at the impact of the game order on the group outcomes. Altitude will be considered as from my own experience of trying to run up a hill here indicates that it may be more of a factor than people anticipate. I'm going to start with the groups preview then move on to the outrights and specials markets and after that we will start looking at individual games.
OK so lets start.
Group A - this is a messy group. France should prevail due to the weakness of the other teams. South Africa are hosts and the atmosphere will be electric so they could spring a surprise and get second, but this is not a group I have any interest in betting on.
Group B: My general thoery on game order is that it is a big advantage for a team fighting for second to play the weakest team first and athe strongest team last. Several reasons. Firstly winning the first game while the team you are fighting against for second play the strongest team means you go into the second game against them with 3 points and quite happy with a draw while they have zero and are desperately in need of points on the board. This puts all the pressure on the other team which can only be a positive thing. Playing the strongest team last meana their is a reasonable chance they will already have 6 points and may rest some key players to avoid injury/suspension especially given that all yellow cards are wiped after the group stage. Greece play Korea in their first game. Korea struggle to defend set pieces - one of Greeces key strengths. An opening win for the Greeks puts them in good nick going into the game against Nigeria where a draw should be sufficient. If Argentina win their opening 2 games it is very unlikely Mascherano will play the 3rd game and if I was manager neither would Messi. So Greece have to be the call here to sneak second place.
1.5pts Greece to qualify 6/4 (Coral)
Group C: Again in this group the USA are at a disadvantage through playing England first. I can make a case for both Slovenia and Algeria qualifying as I think both are vastly under-rated. It should be remembered that Slovenia qualified based on a 2 leg playoff win over Russia while Algeria beat Egypt (ANC Winners) to get here.
1.5pts USA not to qualify 5/4 (888sport)
0.5pts Algeria to qualify 4/1 (general)
Group D: In this group I really like Ghana. They went into the African Cup with most of their big name players injured but the young players from last years U-19 winning WC team stepped up to the mark and produced a very cohesive performance to get 3rd. If the coach gets the balance between youth and experience right here Ghana could be the most successful of the African teams at this world cup. However looking at the prices there seems some inconsistency. Ghana and Serbia are roughly the same prices to beat Germany and Australia, to qualify Serbia are 1.97 and Ghana are 2.32 but in the match between the 2 sides you can get 3.7 on Ghana to win and 2.32 on Serbia so I'm going to be ignoring the to qualify market and have a big bet on Ghana to win the opener - will post that in the game preview section.
Group E: No bet here. Denmark are the ssecond best team but do have a tough opener against the Dutch. I think they will be strong enough mentally to overcome that disadvantage but not looking to get any cash involved.
Group F: Slovakia have everything in their favour here in terms of game order and for a team that topped their Euro qualifying group to be such underdogs to Paraguay seems incredible to me. Their is even a chance that Slovakia could be good enough to squeeze past an aging Italian side for first. SO with Italy and Slovakia fighting it out for first and second backing Paraguay for 3rd looks a good bet to me.
2pts Paraguay to come 3rd 5/2 (Bodog)
1pt Slovakia to win Group F 15/2 (VC)
Group G: Very similar price anomaly to the Ghana group here. I personally think Sven is the perfect manager to get the best out of Ivory Coasts underperforming stars. Portugal have been disappointing in qualifying and as I write this I see they've just had a 0-0 draw with the mighty Cape Verde Islands although I'm not sure who they had playing. Looking at the prices though the best value is again is having a big bet on Ivory Coast to win the opener against Portugal.
Group H: Here Chile have the ideal game order with a high probabilty of facing a weakened Spanish team in their final game. Given that I think they have to be backed to qualify at Switzerlands expense.
1.5pts Chile to qualify 8/11 (Coral, extrabet)
Friday, 21 May 2010
OK as far as I can make out from going back through the records we have decimated our profits to +29pts. Fortunately I expect to get the blog back on track with the world cup on the horizon but first just a few bits on todays sport.
2pts e/w Canford Cliffs 3/1 (WH) - Currragh 3.45: Very classy horse 3rd in the English equivalent and can get his rewards here today.
1.5pts win Markhab 9/2 (Lads) - Curragh 3.10: Lads are out of line here and he is much shorter in most other places after a win first time out this season. Hard to be enthusiatic about an O'Brien horse that is aimed at bigger things running in a G3 on his seasons debut.
0.75pts e/w Choose Me 15/2 (VC) - Curragh 4.20 - theonly onewho seems likely to be able to put it up to the favourite and massive value on the place part here.
0.75 pts e/w Break Serve 8/1 (VC Lads) - Lingfield 8.00 - no strength in depth in this race and it would be a shock if he doesn't at least place here with the benefit of a warm up run.
1pt e/w Hamish McGonagall 9/2 (Lads) - York 3.40: shorter for both win and place on betfair. You can play to lay or just ride it out. I think you know which options I'll be taking!
2pts e/w Canford Cliffs 3/1 (WH) - Currragh 3.45: Very classy horse 3rd in the English equivalent and can get his rewards here today.
1.5pts win Markhab 9/2 (Lads) - Curragh 3.10: Lads are out of line here and he is much shorter in most other places after a win first time out this season. Hard to be enthusiatic about an O'Brien horse that is aimed at bigger things running in a G3 on his seasons debut.
0.75pts e/w Choose Me 15/2 (VC) - Curragh 4.20 - theonly onewho seems likely to be able to put it up to the favourite and massive value on the place part here.
0.75 pts e/w Break Serve 8/1 (VC Lads) - Lingfield 8.00 - no strength in depth in this race and it would be a shock if he doesn't at least place here with the benefit of a warm up run.
1pt e/w Hamish McGonagall 9/2 (Lads) - York 3.40: shorter for both win and place on betfair. You can play to lay or just ride it out. I think you know which options I'll be taking!
Saturday, 15 May 2010
Sat bits and pieces
0.5pts e/w Conceptual Art - Newmarket 4.35 20/1 (VC): can improve on debut to feature here and will show a good return on the place part even if he does come up short against the jolly.
0.75pts e/w Border Fusion - Bangor 5.45 10/3 (VC, Paddy Power): a solid performer who although not as good as Ice Tea is a more consistent sort. With the market suggesting that this is at best a 4 horse race we can be pretty confident of collecting the place money and just have to hope Ice Tea doesn't quite fancy it today to land the win part too.
1pt win Red Jester Uttoxeter 7.25 5/1 (general): question marks about all the other market leaders either abilities or temperament. This is a solid horse who ran consistently well last season. Can get himself off to a winning start for the season here.
0.75pts e/w Anne of Kiev - Doncaster8.10 5/1 (general): this horse should start a little shorter and nice value on the place part of the bet.
0.75pts e/w Bilash - Doncaster8.40 9/1 (VC): should be a lot closer to the 2 market leaders in price imo. Can pput it up to Humidor for the honours here.
1.5pts win Kerb Appeal - Kilbeggan 6.40 11/10 (general): a solid 3rd in a grade 2 behind runaway winner Western Leader is comfrtably the best form on offer here and assuming that the last day was just a blip he can comfortably account for these including the improving 2nd fav One back for Luck.
0.75pts e/w Border Fusion - Bangor 5.45 10/3 (VC, Paddy Power): a solid performer who although not as good as Ice Tea is a more consistent sort. With the market suggesting that this is at best a 4 horse race we can be pretty confident of collecting the place money and just have to hope Ice Tea doesn't quite fancy it today to land the win part too.
1pt win Red Jester Uttoxeter 7.25 5/1 (general): question marks about all the other market leaders either abilities or temperament. This is a solid horse who ran consistently well last season. Can get himself off to a winning start for the season here.
0.75pts e/w Anne of Kiev - Doncaster8.10 5/1 (general): this horse should start a little shorter and nice value on the place part of the bet.
0.75pts e/w Bilash - Doncaster8.40 9/1 (VC): should be a lot closer to the 2 market leaders in price imo. Can pput it up to Humidor for the honours here.
1.5pts win Kerb Appeal - Kilbeggan 6.40 11/10 (general): a solid 3rd in a grade 2 behind runaway winner Western Leader is comfrtably the best form on offer here and assuming that the last day was just a blip he can comfortably account for these including the improving 2nd fav One back for Luck.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Blog is back
Ok lads I've been doing a lot of travel recently and haven't got a chance to update here. But am now back on the gambling thread and starting into my research for the WC. I will hopefully have some thoughts onthat to post in the next few days along with an updated P&L position. For the mean time it is playoff weekend this weekend so should be some value knocking around there:
0.2pts Yankee Draws in all 4 League 1 & 2 play-off 1st legs (Betfred - 9/4, 23/10, 12/5, 5/2): Goals will be at a premium here with very little between the sides and a cautious approach likely making draws a lot more likely.
2pts Draw Swindon v Charlton 23/10 (Coral, Sky bet)
2pts Draw Huddersfield v Millwall 23/10 (Betfred, BlueSq, Coral, 888)
2pts Draw Aldershot v Rotherham 12/5 (general)
2pts Draw D&R v Morecombe 5/2 (Betfred)
1.5pts under 2.5 goals Swindon v Charlton 1.82 (Betfair)
0.5pts Charlton to win 1-0 10.5 (Betfair) - a good price on what is the most likely scenario to unhinge are draw bet.
0.2pts Yankee Draws in all 4 League 1 & 2 play-off 1st legs (Betfred - 9/4, 23/10, 12/5, 5/2): Goals will be at a premium here with very little between the sides and a cautious approach likely making draws a lot more likely.
2pts Draw Swindon v Charlton 23/10 (Coral, Sky bet)
2pts Draw Huddersfield v Millwall 23/10 (Betfred, BlueSq, Coral, 888)
2pts Draw Aldershot v Rotherham 12/5 (general)
2pts Draw D&R v Morecombe 5/2 (Betfred)
1.5pts under 2.5 goals Swindon v Charlton 1.82 (Betfair)
0.5pts Charlton to win 1-0 10.5 (Betfair) - a good price on what is the most likely scenario to unhinge are draw bet.
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Denmans Day
In a break from tradition we seem to have won some money yesterday. Here are todays picks
4pts Denman win 7/4 (Coral)
1.5pts e/w Arabella Boy 7/1 (Paddy Power)
0.75pts e/w J'y Vole 13/2 (Lads)
4pts Denman win 7/4 (Coral)
1.5pts e/w Arabella Boy 7/1 (Paddy Power)
0.75pts e/w J'y Vole 13/2 (Lads)
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
CL 1st legs
2pt Draw Barcelona v Inter 23/10 (888Sport) - same logic we have followed the whole way through the knockout stages
2pts Draw Bayern v Lyon 3.9 (Betfair)
1pt double on the draws 12.5 (Betfair)
2pts Lyon to qualify 2.56 (Betfair) - decent team whith home advantage for the second leg
2pts under 2.5 goals 2.0 Lyon game (betfair) - goals are always hard to come by in the first legs of these games
2pts Draw Bayern v Lyon 3.9 (Betfair)
1pt double on the draws 12.5 (Betfair)
2pts Lyon to qualify 2.56 (Betfair) - decent team whith home advantage for the second leg
2pts under 2.5 goals 2.0 Lyon game (betfair) - goals are always hard to come by in the first legs of these games
Monday, 19 April 2010
End of Season racing
The last of the real racing festivals until November starts today!
1.5pts e/w Kalahari King 5.7 and 1.95 (Betfair)- impressive at Cheltenham and has obviously progressed well this season. The pace will be too strong for TM to win this with just his kick and Forpadytheplasterer has prob had one too many races this season (if he had skipped Aintree I would not oppose here). Big step up for Sizing and KK can get just rewards here.
0.5pts Golden Silver to place 4.5 (Betfair) - with doubts over a lot othe horses ahead of him in the market its worth a small play here. Alos helped by the fact that a lot of people are convinced that he needs softer ground to beat the best.
1.5pts win Blackstairmountain 5.9 (Betfair) - I think General Miller is a very good horse but slightly flattered by beating Menorah at Aintree (very hard for any horse to get the double). Blackstarimountain just failed to beat the under-rated Luska Lad in goround he hated th last day and if that hasn't left him drained he will put in a big show here.
1.5pts place BSM 2.1 (Betfair) - see above
1pt e/w Jadanli 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - quite a price for the best horse in the race. Obviously concerns over how much the race the last day took out of him but the extra distance will suit and definitely the one to beat here.
I'll post footbal and anything else later.
1.5pts e/w Kalahari King 5.7 and 1.95 (Betfair)- impressive at Cheltenham and has obviously progressed well this season. The pace will be too strong for TM to win this with just his kick and Forpadytheplasterer has prob had one too many races this season (if he had skipped Aintree I would not oppose here). Big step up for Sizing and KK can get just rewards here.
0.5pts Golden Silver to place 4.5 (Betfair) - with doubts over a lot othe horses ahead of him in the market its worth a small play here. Alos helped by the fact that a lot of people are convinced that he needs softer ground to beat the best.
1.5pts win Blackstairmountain 5.9 (Betfair) - I think General Miller is a very good horse but slightly flattered by beating Menorah at Aintree (very hard for any horse to get the double). Blackstarimountain just failed to beat the under-rated Luska Lad in goround he hated th last day and if that hasn't left him drained he will put in a big show here.
1.5pts place BSM 2.1 (Betfair) - see above
1pt e/w Jadanli 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - quite a price for the best horse in the race. Obviously concerns over how much the race the last day took out of him but the extra distance will suit and definitely the one to beat here.
I'll post footbal and anything else later.
Friday, 16 April 2010
Downward spiral continues
The last few games of the season always provide some value so hopefully they can help pull us out of our current downward spiral.
1pt Middlesboro 10/3 (Coral) - A team who still has a chance of forcing their way back into the playoff picture against a team whose season is already over. The difference in motivation can be key here.
1.5pts Cardiff 9/5 (Lads) - Cardiff will be looking to ensure a home 2nd leg for the playoffs and bookies seem to underestimate their motivation here going very short on QPR who need points to guarantee their survival.
1pt Crystal Palace 11/5 (Betfred) - for once I disagree with MH on this one. Palace have been the better team over the past few months and if their manager can use the points deductions and their need for points for survival to their advantage then their is value in their price here.
2pts Rotherham 1.88 (Betfair) - Rotherham still have a vague chance of automatic promotion and apart from that still face a very tough time to try to secure home 2nd leg for the play-offs. Against a team just above the relegation zone who although precarious should survive. R'ham are way too short here bearing that in mind.
1pt Wolves 3/1 (SJ, Skybet) - Fulham will be distracted by their European semi-final next week and are unlikely to go full out for a game that is largely meaningless to them.
1pt Middlesboro 10/3 (Coral) - A team who still has a chance of forcing their way back into the playoff picture against a team whose season is already over. The difference in motivation can be key here.
1.5pts Cardiff 9/5 (Lads) - Cardiff will be looking to ensure a home 2nd leg for the playoffs and bookies seem to underestimate their motivation here going very short on QPR who need points to guarantee their survival.
1pt Crystal Palace 11/5 (Betfred) - for once I disagree with MH on this one. Palace have been the better team over the past few months and if their manager can use the points deductions and their need for points for survival to their advantage then their is value in their price here.
2pts Rotherham 1.88 (Betfair) - Rotherham still have a vague chance of automatic promotion and apart from that still face a very tough time to try to secure home 2nd leg for the play-offs. Against a team just above the relegation zone who although precarious should survive. R'ham are way too short here bearing that in mind.
1pt Wolves 3/1 (SJ, Skybet) - Fulham will be distracted by their European semi-final next week and are unlikely to go full out for a game that is largely meaningless to them.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Off the bar
Another day of near misses sees out losses accumulate - i'll do up a P&L shortly. Meanwhile a lot of bets worth looking at today. Apologies for the lack of explanations recently - dodging plastic bullets and tear gas canisters has limited my time online!
1.5pts e/w Big Bad Billy Bob 8/1 (Lads) - LK 4.55
0.75pts e/w Leos Lucky Angel 14/1 (Lads, VC) - LK 5.55
1pt e/w Royal And Ancient 10/1 (general) - LK 6.25
1pt e/w Birragurra 11/2 (VC) - LK6.55
1pt e/w Tipper Road 11/1 (Paddy Power) - LK7.25
1pt e/w French LEave 8/1 (Lads) - Exeter 2.10
1pt e/w Whenever 3/1 (VC) - Exeter 2.40
1pt e/w Gay Mirage 9/2 (general) Ponte 2.50
1pt e/w Distant Memory 9/1 (WH, SJ) Ponte 4.20
1pt win Sgt Schultz 4/1 (WH) Ponte 5.20
1pt e/w Knightfire 9/2 (VC, WH) Yarmouth 3.30
Wow that is a big day for a day with absolutely nothing of any quality running but GAMBLE!
1.5pts e/w Big Bad Billy Bob 8/1 (Lads) - LK 4.55
0.75pts e/w Leos Lucky Angel 14/1 (Lads, VC) - LK 5.55
1pt e/w Royal And Ancient 10/1 (general) - LK 6.25
1pt e/w Birragurra 11/2 (VC) - LK6.55
1pt e/w Tipper Road 11/1 (Paddy Power) - LK7.25
1pt e/w French LEave 8/1 (Lads) - Exeter 2.10
1pt e/w Whenever 3/1 (VC) - Exeter 2.40
1pt e/w Gay Mirage 9/2 (general) Ponte 2.50
1pt e/w Distant Memory 9/1 (WH, SJ) Ponte 4.20
1pt win Sgt Schultz 4/1 (WH) Ponte 5.20
1pt e/w Knightfire 9/2 (VC, WH) Yarmouth 3.30
Wow that is a big day for a day with absolutely nothing of any quality running but GAMBLE!
Monday, 12 April 2010
Friday, 9 April 2010
Thursday, 8 April 2010
But when he was good....
Nice start with the forecast!
1pt e/w Island Flyer 11/1 (VC)
1pt e/w Lord Jay Jay 16/1 (VC)
1.5pts win Mad Max 6/1 (SJ, Coral)
1pt e/w Island Flyer 11/1 (VC)
1pt e/w Lord Jay Jay 16/1 (VC)
1.5pts win Mad Max 6/1 (SJ, Coral)
Aintree Day 1
OK in a bit of a rush so just going to put selections up:
1.5pts What A Friend @ 3/1 (general)
0.75pts e/w Carruthers @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
1.5pts What A Friend @ 3/1 (general)
0.75pts e/w Carruthers @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
From here to Eternity
As the sinking ship that this blog has become over the last week attempts to bail out the water and stop us falling below the +67.99pts we have sunk to we will turn our attention back to some European action before the saviour of Aintree later in the week.
A wiser man than me once said there is no period of time between here and eternity for which an Italian team cannot defend a 1-0 lead. Tonight Inter travel to Moscow attempting to do just that. Obviously the smart money will be on the draw and so must be opposed. The absence of 2 of CSKA's central midfielders is a concern but Inter are also missing a few players and on the artificial pitch in the Moscow cauldron the much under-rated CSKA can score a victory for football by eliminating Mourinho from the competition.
2.5pts CSKA @ 3.6 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (expekt): doesn't need a huge amount of explanation - Barca at home at 1/3 with an expected goal line of about 3.4 makes him value to get on the score sheet at some point and hopefully can deliver the win money as well for once.
3pts Bordeaux to win @ 11/10 (Paddy Power): Are still the better team in my opinion and home advantage is a massive edge in these second legs. I expect goals in this game as Bordeaux need to chase Lyon's lead.
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 (Betfair): Yes French league games have horribly few goals but this is not a league game and normal rules do not apply here. Bordeaux can not afford to be cautious for too long and expect things to open up as they chase the game.
I can't really see where the price for the G3 hurdle in Fairyhouse are coming from - I would have a massively different market to this. I would have Dr DJ and Big Game Hunter a lot bigger and Shanrod slightly shorter but the biggest value looks to be Politeo. Had BGH behind him last day when they all trailed around behind Alaivan. A small interest e/w looks to be no harm.
0.75pts e/w Politeo @ 11/1 (VC)
A wiser man than me once said there is no period of time between here and eternity for which an Italian team cannot defend a 1-0 lead. Tonight Inter travel to Moscow attempting to do just that. Obviously the smart money will be on the draw and so must be opposed. The absence of 2 of CSKA's central midfielders is a concern but Inter are also missing a few players and on the artificial pitch in the Moscow cauldron the much under-rated CSKA can score a victory for football by eliminating Mourinho from the competition.
2.5pts CSKA @ 3.6 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (expekt): doesn't need a huge amount of explanation - Barca at home at 1/3 with an expected goal line of about 3.4 makes him value to get on the score sheet at some point and hopefully can deliver the win money as well for once.
3pts Bordeaux to win @ 11/10 (Paddy Power): Are still the better team in my opinion and home advantage is a massive edge in these second legs. I expect goals in this game as Bordeaux need to chase Lyon's lead.
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 (Betfair): Yes French league games have horribly few goals but this is not a league game and normal rules do not apply here. Bordeaux can not afford to be cautious for too long and expect things to open up as they chase the game.
I can't really see where the price for the G3 hurdle in Fairyhouse are coming from - I would have a massively different market to this. I would have Dr DJ and Big Game Hunter a lot bigger and Shanrod slightly shorter but the biggest value looks to be Politeo. Had BGH behind him last day when they all trailed around behind Alaivan. A small interest e/w looks to be no harm.
0.75pts e/w Politeo @ 11/1 (VC)
Sunday, 4 April 2010
Easter racing
OK got her earlier than I thought so just some quick thoughts on todays racing:
1pt Zaarito to win @ 7/2 (): I thought 5/2 was the right price yesterday which makes 7/2 tempting enough for us.
1.5pts Shakervilz to place @1.88 (Betfair): A very classy horse who might just be found wanting against Zaarito however solid jumping can ensure a share of the place money at least.
1.5pts e/w Hunters Belt @ 13/2 (Stan James) Musselburgh 4.50: Should be 2nd fav behind Goodlukin Lucy and massive value on the place part of this bet also.
1pt Follow the PLan @ 5/1 (VC, Paddy Power) Cork 4.45: Back off a big lay off but the only one of these horses that has ever looked like he was going anywhere over fences he can take down this one on his return.
0.5pts e/w Liss na Tintri @ 25/1 (VC, Bet 365,SKybet) Fairyhouse 2.55: I really want to oppose the favourite in this. He is too short for a horse that can't jump. I'm convinced at least on of these horses can put him under enough pressure to make the flaw pay. LnT has been an expensive horse to follow but after having been overhyped for so long people now seem to have rejected him with just as much vigour leaving him a nice price here today. The horse I really wanted to back in this was Guzzle and Go which beat LnT last time out but unfortunately he has just been withdrawn - he is definitely a horse to look out for and LnT can prove that today.
1pt Zaarito to win @ 7/2 (): I thought 5/2 was the right price yesterday which makes 7/2 tempting enough for us.
1.5pts Shakervilz to place @1.88 (Betfair): A very classy horse who might just be found wanting against Zaarito however solid jumping can ensure a share of the place money at least.
1.5pts e/w Hunters Belt @ 13/2 (Stan James) Musselburgh 4.50: Should be 2nd fav behind Goodlukin Lucy and massive value on the place part of this bet also.
1pt Follow the PLan @ 5/1 (VC, Paddy Power) Cork 4.45: Back off a big lay off but the only one of these horses that has ever looked like he was going anywhere over fences he can take down this one on his return.
0.5pts e/w Liss na Tintri @ 25/1 (VC, Bet 365,SKybet) Fairyhouse 2.55: I really want to oppose the favourite in this. He is too short for a horse that can't jump. I'm convinced at least on of these horses can put him under enough pressure to make the flaw pay. LnT has been an expensive horse to follow but after having been overhyped for so long people now seem to have rejected him with just as much vigour leaving him a nice price here today. The horse I really wanted to back in this was Guzzle and Go which beat LnT last time out but unfortunately he has just been withdrawn - he is definitely a horse to look out for and LnT can prove that today.
Friday, 2 April 2010
Carnage
Ok a horrendous week of football results brings us all the way back down to +80.26pts and I'm going to knock off the 10pts for Pompey getting relegated now before I forget to get all the pain out of the way and leave us a clear run at Aintree. So +70.26pts is where we stand.
1.5pts Man Utd @ 2.84 (Betfair): Obviously losing Rooney is a blow but the market seems to have massively overreacted to this. With Rooney in the line up I make Utd about a 11/10 - 6/5 shot. That they could be so much bigger has to as a result of being over-hyped even though it will be no surprise if this ends in a draw which will suits Utd much more than Chelsea.
2pts Villa @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes): 19 more pts with a game less played too much emphasis is on current form than on what these sides have done this season. Expect a reaction to their humiliation against Chelsea today.
3pts Torres to score at anytime @ 6/5 (Coral): Has averaged about a goal a game in the league this season. This is a massive value price. This is as short as 1/2 in places.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half Barca v Bilboa @ 11/5 (tote): Barca have scored more first half league goals than any other team. Although Bilboa might end up being a tougher game than the 1/5 suggests if Barca get an early goal this could easily be over by HT.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): the 5/6 we get here on Messi getting one of th first 5 goals is too big to resist even if there is no value in the win part of the bet.
1.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 11/4 (888sport): you know the story at this stage.
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 10/3 (Skybet): 23 games 23 goals and everyone keeps talking about Ronaldo - take advantage of the hype to get value here.
2pts Gijon @ 4/5 (888sport): At home against a team that is almost relegated and is 14pts below them. Should consolidate their midtable position here.
2.5pts Real Madrid clean sheet @ 5/4 (Skybet): Found a few useful facts on Opta on this one: Racing have won only one of their last 10 league games, and have failed to score a single goal in seven of these. At home, Miguel Ángel Portugal's side are winless in their last six games of La Liga, and have not scored in the last four.
OK ended up with a lot more than I thought I would today. I won't be near a computer tomorrow so just having a quick look at the Powers Gold Cup.
For once the bookies more or less have it right. I think Zaarito is the best horse and he should be fresh enough after all the F's in his form to take this down so long as he stays up not sure I'd want to get overly involved at 5/2 though
1.5pts Man Utd @ 2.84 (Betfair): Obviously losing Rooney is a blow but the market seems to have massively overreacted to this. With Rooney in the line up I make Utd about a 11/10 - 6/5 shot. That they could be so much bigger has to as a result of being over-hyped even though it will be no surprise if this ends in a draw which will suits Utd much more than Chelsea.
2pts Villa @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes): 19 more pts with a game less played too much emphasis is on current form than on what these sides have done this season. Expect a reaction to their humiliation against Chelsea today.
3pts Torres to score at anytime @ 6/5 (Coral): Has averaged about a goal a game in the league this season. This is a massive value price. This is as short as 1/2 in places.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half Barca v Bilboa @ 11/5 (tote): Barca have scored more first half league goals than any other team. Although Bilboa might end up being a tougher game than the 1/5 suggests if Barca get an early goal this could easily be over by HT.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): the 5/6 we get here on Messi getting one of th first 5 goals is too big to resist even if there is no value in the win part of the bet.
1.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 11/4 (888sport): you know the story at this stage.
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 10/3 (Skybet): 23 games 23 goals and everyone keeps talking about Ronaldo - take advantage of the hype to get value here.
2pts Gijon @ 4/5 (888sport): At home against a team that is almost relegated and is 14pts below them. Should consolidate their midtable position here.
2.5pts Real Madrid clean sheet @ 5/4 (Skybet): Found a few useful facts on Opta on this one: Racing have won only one of their last 10 league games, and have failed to score a single goal in seven of these. At home, Miguel Ángel Portugal's side are winless in their last six games of La Liga, and have not scored in the last four.
OK ended up with a lot more than I thought I would today. I won't be near a computer tomorrow so just having a quick look at the Powers Gold Cup.
For once the bookies more or less have it right. I think Zaarito is the best horse and he should be fresh enough after all the F's in his form to take this down so long as he stays up not sure I'd want to get overly involved at 5/2 though
Thursday, 1 April 2010
Variance works both ways!
Not going to abandon my assertion that draws are over priced in 1st leg games despite another disappointing week - in poker sometimes the fish have to win to keep them coming back. The same applies in sports betting.SO...
2pts Draw Benfica v Liverpool @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Fulham v Wolfsburg @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Hamburf v Liege @ 4.3 (Betfair)
2pts Draw Valencia v Athletico @ 3.8 (Betfair)
0.25pts Yankee - 4 Draws Ladbrokes (23/10, 5/2, 3/1, 5/2)
1pt Gerrard to score anytime @ 3/1 (extrabet); Has a phemonenal European scoring record and is way to big here.
Sell bookings points for 0.15pts per point @ 38 (Sportingindex)
2pts Draw Benfica v Liverpool @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Fulham v Wolfsburg @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Hamburf v Liege @ 4.3 (Betfair)
2pts Draw Valencia v Athletico @ 3.8 (Betfair)
0.25pts Yankee - 4 Draws Ladbrokes (23/10, 5/2, 3/1, 5/2)
1pt Gerrard to score anytime @ 3/1 (extrabet); Has a phemonenal European scoring record and is way to big here.
Sell bookings points for 0.15pts per point @ 38 (Sportingindex)
Wednesday, 31 March 2010
Spreads for tonight
OK we are back to +98.54pts after Rooney and Brych delivered last night although it is not often I am disappointed to see Man U concede a last minute goal.
Tonight again we have a pretty reasonable ref in the Arsenal Barcelona game. I also think with all the talk of a game of free flowing football and the goals Barca have been scoring recently the total goals line for this game has been pushed too high. Average goals fro a game like this is about 2.2 and even allowing for this game to be a bit on the high side a spread of 2.8-3 seems too big.
Sell booking points 0.15pts per point @ 36 (sportingindex)
Sell total goals 1pt per goal @ 2.8 (sportingindex)
Tonight again we have a pretty reasonable ref in the Arsenal Barcelona game. I also think with all the talk of a game of free flowing football and the goals Barca have been scoring recently the total goals line for this game has been pushed too high. Average goals fro a game like this is about 2.2 and even allowing for this game to be a bit on the high side a spread of 2.8-3 seems too big.
Sell booking points 0.15pts per point @ 36 (sportingindex)
Sell total goals 1pt per goal @ 2.8 (sportingindex)
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Draw some comfort
Pretty poor weekend but there is plenty of European football this week to get us over that hiccup. As in the last round we will be concentrating on the tendancy for more draws in the first legs of these ties:
0.3pt Yankee Draw in each CL QF (23/10, 9/4, 12/5, 3/1 - Coral)
3pts Draw Lyon v Brodeaux @9/4 (tote, Coral) - looks the most evenly matched game and given the high proportion of draws in the French league anyway this looks massive.
2pts Draw Bayern v Man Utd @ 23/10 (tote, Coral) - a score draw would probably suit both sides. United will want to get an away goal and despite their limitations Bayern at home are always a tough prospect especially given some of the individual talent they have.
2pts Draw Arsenal v Barcelona @ 12/5 (Coral) - not going to be the cavalier goal fest that people expect - Barcelona can grind out results when necessary and Guardiola knows a draw is a good resilt to bring home with the second leg in the Camp Nou.
2pts Draw Inter v CSKA @ 4.7 (Betfair) - Inter are way too short here. CSKA do not get the credit they deserve and have turned into a decent team the past few seasons. Also since the Chelsea game Inter have been on a rotten run of form.
First leg games also have less bookings than average and although the referee in the Utd game is relatively card happy Brych who refs the Lyon game has reffed 13 games at UEFA and FIFA level during which he has issued a paltry 21 yellows and 1 red. I assume the line is only so high as it is being priced as a derby game.
Sell bookings @ 44 for 0.3pts a card (Sporting Index)
0.75pts e/w Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4/1 (Paddy Power) - has carried the Utd team this season and if they do get the win the bookies expect it's likely he will be on the scoresheet. Add in the PP special that if Utd come from behind to win they will refund you bet - also I think they are paying double odds if he scores twice but I'm not 100% on that.
0.3pt Yankee Draw in each CL QF (23/10, 9/4, 12/5, 3/1 - Coral)
3pts Draw Lyon v Brodeaux @9/4 (tote, Coral) - looks the most evenly matched game and given the high proportion of draws in the French league anyway this looks massive.
2pts Draw Bayern v Man Utd @ 23/10 (tote, Coral) - a score draw would probably suit both sides. United will want to get an away goal and despite their limitations Bayern at home are always a tough prospect especially given some of the individual talent they have.
2pts Draw Arsenal v Barcelona @ 12/5 (Coral) - not going to be the cavalier goal fest that people expect - Barcelona can grind out results when necessary and Guardiola knows a draw is a good resilt to bring home with the second leg in the Camp Nou.
2pts Draw Inter v CSKA @ 4.7 (Betfair) - Inter are way too short here. CSKA do not get the credit they deserve and have turned into a decent team the past few seasons. Also since the Chelsea game Inter have been on a rotten run of form.
First leg games also have less bookings than average and although the referee in the Utd game is relatively card happy Brych who refs the Lyon game has reffed 13 games at UEFA and FIFA level during which he has issued a paltry 21 yellows and 1 red. I assume the line is only so high as it is being priced as a derby game.
Sell bookings @ 44 for 0.3pts a card (Sporting Index)
0.75pts e/w Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4/1 (Paddy Power) - has carried the Utd team this season and if they do get the win the bookies expect it's likely he will be on the scoresheet. Add in the PP special that if Utd come from behind to win they will refund you bet - also I think they are paying double odds if he scores twice but I'm not 100% on that.
Saturday, 27 March 2010
Weekend Racing
Dubai World Cup takes centre stage this week - the biggest grandstand in the world for one of the smallest tracks in the world! You go figure - sure to make for a few surprises as it rewards position rather than talent. But we'll try to pick a few winners none the less.
1pt win Vision d'Etat @ 7.6 (Betfair): a very good HK Cup winner. The doubts over his participation are obviously a worry but at this price we will gladly take it.
1.5pts Rocket Man @ 9/4 (Betfred): This horse is the business. The Godolphin/Frankie presence on Gayego is making value all around here. This is the most likely to take advantage.
1pt e/w Courageous Cat @ 12/1 (general): Connections aren't worried about Previs's wide draw but I sure as hell am. On a tight track like this he will have to do a lot of extra work to get to the front. As a result CC can take advantage having run a cracking race at the Breeders Cup to get within 1/2L of Goldikova. He has a reasonable draw here and can take advantage.
1pt e/w Gitano Hernando 5/1 (Ladbrokes): Not a superstar just a very good horse and can be a danger here with a good draw and a tendancy to show early.
1pt win Calusa Crystal @ 3/1 (Lads, VC): Warmed up for this with a facile win in Warwik a fortnight ago - unlike her main oppostion who ran a very good but tough race coming second to Quevega at Cheltenham over hurdles.
That race is off soon so will post update of later races in a few mins
OK just one to add
1pt Watson Lake 9/2 (WH): The only horse here that has really been kept fresh for this and can get his reward. Has run to a reasonable level for a long time without ever challenging the big boys but good enough to take advantage of a few tired performances here.
1pt win Vision d'Etat @ 7.6 (Betfair): a very good HK Cup winner. The doubts over his participation are obviously a worry but at this price we will gladly take it.
1.5pts Rocket Man @ 9/4 (Betfred): This horse is the business. The Godolphin/Frankie presence on Gayego is making value all around here. This is the most likely to take advantage.
1pt e/w Courageous Cat @ 12/1 (general): Connections aren't worried about Previs's wide draw but I sure as hell am. On a tight track like this he will have to do a lot of extra work to get to the front. As a result CC can take advantage having run a cracking race at the Breeders Cup to get within 1/2L of Goldikova. He has a reasonable draw here and can take advantage.
1pt e/w Gitano Hernando 5/1 (Ladbrokes): Not a superstar just a very good horse and can be a danger here with a good draw and a tendancy to show early.
1pt win Calusa Crystal @ 3/1 (Lads, VC): Warmed up for this with a facile win in Warwik a fortnight ago - unlike her main oppostion who ran a very good but tough race coming second to Quevega at Cheltenham over hurdles.
That race is off soon so will post update of later races in a few mins
OK just one to add
1pt Watson Lake 9/2 (WH): The only horse here that has really been kept fresh for this and can get his reward. Has run to a reasonable level for a long time without ever challenging the big boys but good enough to take advantage of a few tired performances here.
Weekend Soccer
Wheels came off midweek but a Villa goals just kept us above the double mark at +100.56pts. Two things to mention before I start. Firstly I was wrong about goal difference being a deciding factor in La Liga which could be key to some betting decisions in later weeks (in the case of a tie head to head is the deciding factor.) Also although I haven't put a huge amount of betfair prices on here I have been allocating full credit in the case of a win ignoring commission - in future the max commission of 5% will be deducted to winnings.
1.5pts Stoke @ 4.0 (Betfair): They are 9pts clear with a game in hand of a West Ham team who are looking a shambles and at this stage you have to think the players just want to end the drama and get themselves a new boss - ignore David Gold's 'vote of confidence' and expect to see Zola down the dole office on Thursday.
1pt Everton 11/10 (general): 17pts clear of Wolves and finally starting to build a bit of momentum. They have scored nearly twice as many goals as Wolves this season and that can be decisive today.
2pts Sevilla @ 12/5 (VC): Despite their recent slump Sevilla are still 8pts clear of Villareal. A change in coach can see them regain the winning thread.
1pt Everton 11/10 (general): 17pts clear of Wolves and finally starting to build a bit of momentum. They have scored nearly twice as many goals as Wolves this season and that can be decisive today.
2pts Sevilla @ 12/5 (VC): Despite their recent slump Sevilla are still 8pts clear of Villareal. A change in coach can see them regain the winning thread.
1pt Draw Chelsea v Villa @ 5.2(Betfair): Chelsea cannot be 2/5 for a game against another team fighting for a CL spot however the fact that M. O'Neill has never won a PL game in March - EVER does slightly put us off backing Villa. It is obviously a statistical anomaly but there could be some truth in it when you consider that O'Neill always tends to be working with small squads of players that over -perform for large parts of the season and then perhaps hit a wal due to lack of rotation. Having eliminated both other options I guess it makes sense to have a small interest in Villa grinding out another draw at big odds.
Weekend racing to follow
Weekend racing to follow
Wednesday, 24 March 2010
Double It!
We've finally doubled our cash breaing through to +105.23pts to date. Some midweek football today:
1pt Man City @ 2.14 (Betfair): Pretty marginal call but 8pts more with one game less played make City slight value here. This is a true test of whether they have what it takes to grab that final CL place.
0.5pts e/w Tevez to score first @ 9/2 (Paddy Power): I was just going to back him to score anytime but PP are currently paying double odds if you selection score twice, triple for a hat-trick etc. By my rough calculations he has scored in 12 of his last 18 games (18goals in total). H ehas only scored 1st on 3 occasions but the value on the special plus the 6/4 we are getting on him scoring anytime makes this a play.
1pt Tevez to score anytime @7/5 (expect): see above
1pt Birmingham @ 3/1 (Coral): 9pts adirft of them in the league and best price of 11/10? Not for me. Brimingham have benefited from being tight at the back this season and can grind out another result here at a nice price.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half - Barca v Osasuna @ 21/10 (sportingodds): Our usual play when Barca play someone from the bottom half of the table at home. We have reduced our stake due to the fact that with goal difference all thats splitting the top 2 there may be no easing off if Barca start to score early.
1.5pts e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2(Will Hill): best price of 4/7 to score anytime however with this bet we get 5/6 on that eventuality (well one of the first 5 goals anyway).
1pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): taking a slightly worse price than SJ for the special offer if he scores more than one.
1pt Man City @ 2.14 (Betfair): Pretty marginal call but 8pts more with one game less played make City slight value here. This is a true test of whether they have what it takes to grab that final CL place.
0.5pts e/w Tevez to score first @ 9/2 (Paddy Power): I was just going to back him to score anytime but PP are currently paying double odds if you selection score twice, triple for a hat-trick etc. By my rough calculations he has scored in 12 of his last 18 games (18goals in total). H ehas only scored 1st on 3 occasions but the value on the special plus the 6/4 we are getting on him scoring anytime makes this a play.
1pt Tevez to score anytime @7/5 (expect): see above
1pt Birmingham @ 3/1 (Coral): 9pts adirft of them in the league and best price of 11/10? Not for me. Brimingham have benefited from being tight at the back this season and can grind out another result here at a nice price.
1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half - Barca v Osasuna @ 21/10 (sportingodds): Our usual play when Barca play someone from the bottom half of the table at home. We have reduced our stake due to the fact that with goal difference all thats splitting the top 2 there may be no easing off if Barca start to score early.
1.5pts e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2(Will Hill): best price of 4/7 to score anytime however with this bet we get 5/6 on that eventuality (well one of the first 5 goals anyway).
1pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): taking a slightly worse price than SJ for the special offer if he scores more than one.
Monday, 22 March 2010
After adjusting to allow for us losing a point more on Tidal Bay than I had allowed the weekends football brings us up to +98.78pts. More football betting this weeks with some value on the to qualify markets in the european cups.
3pts Wolfsburg to qualify @ 5/6 (ladbrokes): Have home advantage in the 2nd leg which is key. Fulham are perhaps slightly flattered by their win over a shambles of a Juve team who were reduced to 10 men early on. Last years German champions are the better team and with the 2nd leg at home look great value to progress.
1pt Standard Liege to qualify @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes): Again home advantage in the 2nd leg can prove key. Liege are underestimated and a 4-1 victory over an under-rated Panathanikos side is not to be sniffed at especially a 3-1 away win. They have improved enough in the last 2 years to be a rel danger to this Hamburg side.
1.5pts Wolves to win @ 5.3 (Betfair): Wolves are a point ahead of West Ham yet WH go into this game as 4/5 favourites. That does not make sense. They should be out about 6/5 -5/4. Wolves might just surprise everyone this season and stay up. Definitely at bigger than 4/1 here they are worth a shot.
1pt Wolfsburg to win Europa League @ 7/1 (general): The 3 top teams are in the other half of the draw. Wolfsburg will have have home advantage in the 2nd leg again if they reach the semi-final. I don't think they will win that final although it also must be remembered that the final will be played just down the road in Hamburg.
2.5pts Bordeaux to qualify @ evns (general): Bordeaux are 5 pts clear of Lyon in Le Championnat with a game in hand. They also have home advantage in the second leg. They should be somewhere in the 4/6 - 8/11 range. I think Lyon knocking out Real and their previous European predigree are causing them to be over-rated for this clash.
3pts Wolfsburg to qualify @ 5/6 (ladbrokes): Have home advantage in the 2nd leg which is key. Fulham are perhaps slightly flattered by their win over a shambles of a Juve team who were reduced to 10 men early on. Last years German champions are the better team and with the 2nd leg at home look great value to progress.
1pt Standard Liege to qualify @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes): Again home advantage in the 2nd leg can prove key. Liege are underestimated and a 4-1 victory over an under-rated Panathanikos side is not to be sniffed at especially a 3-1 away win. They have improved enough in the last 2 years to be a rel danger to this Hamburg side.
1.5pts Wolves to win @ 5.3 (Betfair): Wolves are a point ahead of West Ham yet WH go into this game as 4/5 favourites. That does not make sense. They should be out about 6/5 -5/4. Wolves might just surprise everyone this season and stay up. Definitely at bigger than 4/1 here they are worth a shot.
1pt Wolfsburg to win Europa League @ 7/1 (general): The 3 top teams are in the other half of the draw. Wolfsburg will have have home advantage in the 2nd leg again if they reach the semi-final. I don't think they will win that final although it also must be remembered that the final will be played just down the road in Hamburg.
2.5pts Bordeaux to qualify @ evns (general): Bordeaux are 5 pts clear of Lyon in Le Championnat with a game in hand. They also have home advantage in the second leg. They should be somewhere in the 4/6 - 8/11 range. I think Lyon knocking out Real and their previous European predigree are causing them to be over-rated for this clash.
Saturday, 20 March 2010
Hitting the bar
What a day of near misses! We collected place money in 4 of the 6 races previewed without ever getting our noses in front on the line. If my maths are right we were exactly even on the last day of the festival but on a day of some rollercoaster emotions it certainly didn't feel that way. Today it is back to the mundane Saturday soccer to keep us occupied.
Man Utd v Liverpool
You probably won't be surprised to realise that I'm going to tip up a first goalscorer bet. You might be surprised though that it is Torres and not Rooney I'll be tipping up. Torres has made 18 or 19 appearances this campaign and has netted 15 times. It is not unrealistic to think that with an uninterrupted campaign he would be challenging Rooney for the golden boot. Also anyone who has seen any of the previous installments of Torres v Vidic wouldn't be betting too heavily on the Serb coming out on top. 2 goals midweek and a rather generous 13/2 compared to Rooney 3/1 is enough to convince us on this one.
0.75pts e/w Torres to score first 13/2 (888sport, Coral)
1.5pts David Villa to score first @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) - his record in the Mestalla continues to amaze
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - only Messi has scored more in La Liga this season and there should be plenty of goals for Madrid at home to Gijon.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - top goalscorer this season and always a threat.
Premiership Outright;
I toyed with putting up Arsenal a few weeks back at 7s and then didn't but there is still time to right the wrong. Looking at the top 3s run ins Chelsea have 5 away games out of 9 with trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, and White Hart Lane. They also have to entertain Villa at Stamford Bridge. Man Utd have it easier playing Spurs Liverpool and Chelsea at home with only the away trip to City standing out - but still a lot of top teams capable of taking points off them. Arsenal have a nice run in with plenty of mid table teams with nothing to play for Man City visit the Emirates and they have a tricky trip down the road to Spurs but comfortably the easiest run in. I'm not sure how since they are by far the worst of the 3 teams but I think they should be joint favs with Utd and then Chelsea a bit further back.
1.5pts Arsenal to win Premiership @ 11/4 (VC, Boyles)
Man Utd v Liverpool
You probably won't be surprised to realise that I'm going to tip up a first goalscorer bet. You might be surprised though that it is Torres and not Rooney I'll be tipping up. Torres has made 18 or 19 appearances this campaign and has netted 15 times. It is not unrealistic to think that with an uninterrupted campaign he would be challenging Rooney for the golden boot. Also anyone who has seen any of the previous installments of Torres v Vidic wouldn't be betting too heavily on the Serb coming out on top. 2 goals midweek and a rather generous 13/2 compared to Rooney 3/1 is enough to convince us on this one.
0.75pts e/w Torres to score first 13/2 (888sport, Coral)
1.5pts David Villa to score first @ 3/1 (Paddy Power) - his record in the Mestalla continues to amaze
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - only Messi has scored more in La Liga this season and there should be plenty of goals for Madrid at home to Gijon.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (bet365) - top goalscorer this season and always a threat.
Premiership Outright;
I toyed with putting up Arsenal a few weeks back at 7s and then didn't but there is still time to right the wrong. Looking at the top 3s run ins Chelsea have 5 away games out of 9 with trips to Old Trafford, Anfield, and White Hart Lane. They also have to entertain Villa at Stamford Bridge. Man Utd have it easier playing Spurs Liverpool and Chelsea at home with only the away trip to City standing out - but still a lot of top teams capable of taking points off them. Arsenal have a nice run in with plenty of mid table teams with nothing to play for Man City visit the Emirates and they have a tricky trip down the road to Spurs but comfortably the easiest run in. I'm not sure how since they are by far the worst of the 3 teams but I think they should be joint favs with Utd and then Chelsea a bit further back.
1.5pts Arsenal to win Premiership @ 11/4 (VC, Boyles)
Friday, 19 March 2010
Den to be the man again
Having briefly edged above the 100pt mark our profit to date now stands at +92.28pts. It's hard to believe we've come to the end of Cheltenham already and will now have to go cold turkey until Aintree in a few weeks time but hopefully we can go out on a high and break the 100pt mark for the season.
Triumph Hurdle:
I actually have an antepost docket on this one that didn't feature on the blog as I happened to be in Celtic shop one day when they were having one of their moments of madness and managed to pick up a bit of 16s on Carlito Brigante. However we'll still try and find the value in todays market although I think the conclusion could be the same! I don't like Alaivan here as favourite - he was easily beaten by CB at Leopardstown over Christmas and the distance from him back to Loch Long suggests this was not a below par run for him. No reason why he should be shorter in the market today.
Carlito has done nothing wrong - a very impressive win over Christmas in between to comfortable enough wins in more ordinary races. Some bookies are paying 4 places on this today and 9/2 e/w looks like a shot to nothing.
Soldatino is a very good horse but for once I think maybe the market is over-reacting to his one English run. I think the connections have shortened this horse more than possibly he deserves even though I think he will be involved turning in.
Secant Star had the race won when falling due to a low sun at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas however the fact that Ruby hasn't asked to switch off Advisor is probably a fair reflection of this horses chances today.
Advisor has doen nothing wrong but if he was with any other connections you would definitely be getting double figure odds - not for me at those prices.
Westlin Winds is an interesting horse - was beaten 2 1/4ls by Mille Chief the last day when pulling a furlong clear of the rest. Mille Chief would have started this race at about 5/2 - 11/4 if not for injury. Westlin Winds is 11/1 or 4.2 for a place.
The other horse to consider is Pittioni. He has already won a G1 and G3 this season and wasn't disgraced behind Coole River in a G2. My worry with this one is that he is having his 4th run in under 2 months. I just think maybe it's asking too much of him and a break might be called for. If he skips Aintree and turns up at Punchestown we might get involved.
1pt e/w Carlito Brigante 9/2 (Lads)
2pts Westlin Winds to place 4.2 (Betfair)
County Hurdle:
I've really liked Dee Ee Williams for a long time. For a while it seemed as if he had lost his way but looking through his best form he is the best horse here at these weights. He has run Medermit to a shd last season (he also technically ran Binocular to a length this season but it could have been 20 if Binocular was pushed out). He also ran 2nd to Tchico Polos in a rather short and unsuccessful spell chasing. Ignore the run the last day - if this horse is right 33s is going to look very big.
1.5pts e/w Dee Ee Williams 33/1 (WH)
Albert Bartlett:
It's hard to argue with the favourite here. He beat Reve de Sivola by 8Ls here earlier in the season and when you consider he went on to be second by 1 3/4Ls on Wednesday it makes the 9/2 look quite tempting. 2 course runs 2 easy wins even if he probably is better at around 2 1/2m he looks a serious prospect here.
Fionnagas is the other horse of big interest. Improved to run Dunguib to 2 1/2Ls the last day and although he has never run beyond 2 1/2m it is interesting that connections chose this target for him.
Of the others I think Shinrock Paddy's form in the book is a bit flattering and the Betchworth Kid would seem a bigger danger.
1.5pts Tell Massini @ 9/2 (Lads,WH)
0.5pts Fionnegas @16/1 (888sport)
1pt Fionnegas to place @ 5.8 (Betfair)
Gold Cup:
Triumph Hurdle:
I actually have an antepost docket on this one that didn't feature on the blog as I happened to be in Celtic shop one day when they were having one of their moments of madness and managed to pick up a bit of 16s on Carlito Brigante. However we'll still try and find the value in todays market although I think the conclusion could be the same! I don't like Alaivan here as favourite - he was easily beaten by CB at Leopardstown over Christmas and the distance from him back to Loch Long suggests this was not a below par run for him. No reason why he should be shorter in the market today.
Carlito has done nothing wrong - a very impressive win over Christmas in between to comfortable enough wins in more ordinary races. Some bookies are paying 4 places on this today and 9/2 e/w looks like a shot to nothing.
Soldatino is a very good horse but for once I think maybe the market is over-reacting to his one English run. I think the connections have shortened this horse more than possibly he deserves even though I think he will be involved turning in.
Secant Star had the race won when falling due to a low sun at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas however the fact that Ruby hasn't asked to switch off Advisor is probably a fair reflection of this horses chances today.
Advisor has doen nothing wrong but if he was with any other connections you would definitely be getting double figure odds - not for me at those prices.
Westlin Winds is an interesting horse - was beaten 2 1/4ls by Mille Chief the last day when pulling a furlong clear of the rest. Mille Chief would have started this race at about 5/2 - 11/4 if not for injury. Westlin Winds is 11/1 or 4.2 for a place.
The other horse to consider is Pittioni. He has already won a G1 and G3 this season and wasn't disgraced behind Coole River in a G2. My worry with this one is that he is having his 4th run in under 2 months. I just think maybe it's asking too much of him and a break might be called for. If he skips Aintree and turns up at Punchestown we might get involved.
1pt e/w Carlito Brigante 9/2 (Lads)
2pts Westlin Winds to place 4.2 (Betfair)
County Hurdle:
I've really liked Dee Ee Williams for a long time. For a while it seemed as if he had lost his way but looking through his best form he is the best horse here at these weights. He has run Medermit to a shd last season (he also technically ran Binocular to a length this season but it could have been 20 if Binocular was pushed out). He also ran 2nd to Tchico Polos in a rather short and unsuccessful spell chasing. Ignore the run the last day - if this horse is right 33s is going to look very big.
1.5pts e/w Dee Ee Williams 33/1 (WH)
Albert Bartlett:
It's hard to argue with the favourite here. He beat Reve de Sivola by 8Ls here earlier in the season and when you consider he went on to be second by 1 3/4Ls on Wednesday it makes the 9/2 look quite tempting. 2 course runs 2 easy wins even if he probably is better at around 2 1/2m he looks a serious prospect here.
Fionnagas is the other horse of big interest. Improved to run Dunguib to 2 1/2Ls the last day and although he has never run beyond 2 1/2m it is interesting that connections chose this target for him.
Of the others I think Shinrock Paddy's form in the book is a bit flattering and the Betchworth Kid would seem a bigger danger.
1.5pts Tell Massini @ 9/2 (Lads,WH)
0.5pts Fionnegas @16/1 (888sport)
1pt Fionnegas to place @ 5.8 (Betfair)
Gold Cup:
Already advised:
4pts Denman 7/4 w/o Kauto
2pts e/w Denman 7/2
1pt e/w Denman 4/1
Despite the above I still think Kauto will win but the prices on Denman are crazy. If you haven't backed him yet take the 9/2 e/w on him today - that is over evns on him to place! Also worth bearing in mind is that Kauto is French bred - which measn he developed early but also means he will deteriorate early as well and when it does happen it will happen quite quickly. I personally think it will be some stage next season when you see this deterioration but you never really know. Kauto was the best we've ever seen him only 3 months ago but a lot can happen in 3 months. Of the rest I think it is a big ask of Cooldine to be competitive today - even if he is back to his best I doubt it will be good enough to challenge the top 2. Tricky trickster at 5s without the big 2 could be interesting. A festival winner last day and a good performance when Denman fell last time out.
1pt Tricky trickster w/o KS, Denman 5/1 (Coral)
Hunter Chase:
Robber's Glen came 5th in this last year and seems to have improved since then. At a big price quite probably because of his jockey. In fairness to the female though she does have quite a good record of staying on this horse so jumping shouldn't be a problem.
Amicelli won this 2 years ago and was 4th again last year. Has a good corse record and can run well again on a course he likes.
0.5pts Robbers Glen @ 30.0(Betfair)
0.5pts Amicelli @36.o (Betfair)
0.5pts to place Robbers Glen @ 8.4(Betfair)
0.5pts to place Amicelli @ 8.2 (Betfair)
Martin Pipe Hurdle:
I was just going to put up Radium. He had an easy course win on NY Day and ran to within 4Ls of Get Me Out of Here before that. Throw out his last run and that looks pretty impressive. Then I noticed Mahonia lurking down the weights. It's hard to know what to make of this horse. He has a lot of talent but seems quite shy at showing it. Has a poor record at Cheltenham apart from a 2nd to Karabak and is probably going to be the one that got away when he romps in...... I think I will leave him out of the staking plan today.
0.5pts e/w Radium @14/1 (general)
Right I think that is it for today unless I have a brainwave on the last later on
Thursday, 18 March 2010
This time next week we'll be millionaire's
Having possibly already become a Thai millionaire on the back of this festival we'll continue and see if we can turn those Bahts into Euros on the last 2 days.
Jewson Chase:
My take on this is quite different from the market and I struggle to see this not being a great race for the Irish raiders. All 4 horses that caught my attention were Irish - now maybe this is one of my biases but I don't think it is. The 4 worth a mention in my opinion are
China Rock - this is going to be pouded today having been put up by Pricewise and it's not hard to see why. Has been racing in top company all season and hasn't been disgraced behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Pandorama - nothing of that quality here today and carrying 11-3 is going to take some beating.
Jered - a classy hurdler who ran a good race behind the progressive Uimhearaceathair the last time out I think the 114 might just be enough to stop him.
Nicanor - Jereds stablemate is a more interesting prospect and seems to be finally coming back to himself after injury. No disgrace to be headed by An Cathaoir Mor and a defeat to Kempes is also not a disgrace. He beat Denman in the RSA here before injury intervened and 11-1 makes him very interesting.
The Midnight Club - 3rd at the festival last year behind Weapons Amnesty and his jumping has been improving as the seson progresses he could surprise a few people here today. Nothing massively impressive in the form but at a big price you will get value for your money with a bold bid.
1pt e/w China Rock 9/1(WH, VC)
0.5pts e/w Nicanor 14/1(general)
0.5pts e/w The Midnight Club 20/1 (Boyles, VC)
Pertemps Final:
OK a few places are paying 5 places but you would need to pay about 8 places in this to make me want to have anything other than a token interest. That said the mare College Daisy does seem to be a bit overpriced at 66s off a light enough weight. Ran 4th behind Voler la Vedette earleir in the season and was only beaten 1/2L by Badgerlaw the last time out conceding 1lb. She might not stay up the hill but at these prices we'll take a chance. Of the places paying 5 places the best price is 40s so going to take 4 places on Betfair instead.
0.5pts win College Daisy (Betfair)
0.5pts place College Daisy 12.0 (Betfair)
Ryanair Chase:
I just want to start by saying that the owners of Tranquil Sea should be taken out into the stable yard and given a good whipping - running a horse in a nothing race 2 weeks before his main target 'because it's the same as bringing him schooling' is lunancy and has cost him his chance of lifting this imo.
Poquelin has had 2 good runs here this season but 3s is plenty short enough in a much tougher contest this time around.
Barber Shop is the one I like - he would have won the King George if Kauto hadn't been there and was 4th in the Hennessy before that. Seems a little overlooked - sometimes it's better to be beaten by the best than to beat nothing horses! A 2nd here in a Paddy Power Gold Cup to course specialist Imperial Commander shows that the course will be no problem either.
Petit Robin probably doesn't stay this far although if he does he could be a danger.
Schindlers Hunt ran well here last year but is probably playing for places again this year.
Voy Por Ustedes won't be too far away but just not quite at the level needed any more. 4/1 on the place is tempting though.
1.5pts e/w Barber Shop 13/2 (VC)
1pt e/w Voy Por Ustedes 16/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
Lay 1pt Voy Por Ustedes 17.0 (Betfair)
Stayers Hurdle:
Already advised - 1pt e/w Tidal Bay 9/1 + 1pt win Tidal Bay 9/1
No real change in my opinion of this one. Just to add a tiny bit on our outsiders to place at nice prices.
0.5pts Oscar Dan Dan to place 22/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Powerstation to place 15/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts War of Attrition to place 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
OK I'll post this now and then add any thoughts on the last 2 as I go along to give you a chance to get your cash down on the early races.
Byrne Plate:
The biggest handicap Victorias Groom has to overcome in this race is the fact that he is trained by Lucy Wadham. A nice light weight of 10-1 this horse has some nice form at the tail end of last year when touched off by Synchronised and Exmoor Ranger. Song of Songs looks the obvious danger and it's surprising to see AP's choice behind Sunnyhillboy in the betting. Jayo is another who looks interesting and it's a surprise he hasn't been given a bigger weight although he is 2lb worse off with Chapotourgeon since losing to him by 2Ls in November.
0.75pts Victorias Groom 33/1 (WH)
0.5pts Song of Songs 11/1 (WH)
Kim Muir
At this point in the day make a bundle of all your cash and head to the pub unless you really feel sorry about all the cash you've taken off the bookie and feel the need to give something back. If you insist on betting Saphir des Bois is being ridden by a Carr and could surprise others worth looking at might be Buck the Legend and Nina's mount
Jewson Chase:
My take on this is quite different from the market and I struggle to see this not being a great race for the Irish raiders. All 4 horses that caught my attention were Irish - now maybe this is one of my biases but I don't think it is. The 4 worth a mention in my opinion are
China Rock - this is going to be pouded today having been put up by Pricewise and it's not hard to see why. Has been racing in top company all season and hasn't been disgraced behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Pandorama - nothing of that quality here today and carrying 11-3 is going to take some beating.
Jered - a classy hurdler who ran a good race behind the progressive Uimhearaceathair the last time out I think the 114 might just be enough to stop him.
Nicanor - Jereds stablemate is a more interesting prospect and seems to be finally coming back to himself after injury. No disgrace to be headed by An Cathaoir Mor and a defeat to Kempes is also not a disgrace. He beat Denman in the RSA here before injury intervened and 11-1 makes him very interesting.
The Midnight Club - 3rd at the festival last year behind Weapons Amnesty and his jumping has been improving as the seson progresses he could surprise a few people here today. Nothing massively impressive in the form but at a big price you will get value for your money with a bold bid.
1pt e/w China Rock 9/1(WH, VC)
0.5pts e/w Nicanor 14/1(general)
0.5pts e/w The Midnight Club 20/1 (Boyles, VC)
Pertemps Final:
OK a few places are paying 5 places but you would need to pay about 8 places in this to make me want to have anything other than a token interest. That said the mare College Daisy does seem to be a bit overpriced at 66s off a light enough weight. Ran 4th behind Voler la Vedette earleir in the season and was only beaten 1/2L by Badgerlaw the last time out conceding 1lb. She might not stay up the hill but at these prices we'll take a chance. Of the places paying 5 places the best price is 40s so going to take 4 places on Betfair instead.
0.5pts win College Daisy (Betfair)
0.5pts place College Daisy 12.0 (Betfair)
Ryanair Chase:
I just want to start by saying that the owners of Tranquil Sea should be taken out into the stable yard and given a good whipping - running a horse in a nothing race 2 weeks before his main target 'because it's the same as bringing him schooling' is lunancy and has cost him his chance of lifting this imo.
Poquelin has had 2 good runs here this season but 3s is plenty short enough in a much tougher contest this time around.
Barber Shop is the one I like - he would have won the King George if Kauto hadn't been there and was 4th in the Hennessy before that. Seems a little overlooked - sometimes it's better to be beaten by the best than to beat nothing horses! A 2nd here in a Paddy Power Gold Cup to course specialist Imperial Commander shows that the course will be no problem either.
Petit Robin probably doesn't stay this far although if he does he could be a danger.
Schindlers Hunt ran well here last year but is probably playing for places again this year.
Voy Por Ustedes won't be too far away but just not quite at the level needed any more. 4/1 on the place is tempting though.
1.5pts e/w Barber Shop 13/2 (VC)
1pt e/w Voy Por Ustedes 16/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
Lay 1pt Voy Por Ustedes 17.0 (Betfair)
Stayers Hurdle:
Already advised - 1pt e/w Tidal Bay 9/1 + 1pt win Tidal Bay 9/1
No real change in my opinion of this one. Just to add a tiny bit on our outsiders to place at nice prices.
0.5pts Oscar Dan Dan to place 22/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Powerstation to place 15/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts War of Attrition to place 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
OK I'll post this now and then add any thoughts on the last 2 as I go along to give you a chance to get your cash down on the early races.
Byrne Plate:
The biggest handicap Victorias Groom has to overcome in this race is the fact that he is trained by Lucy Wadham. A nice light weight of 10-1 this horse has some nice form at the tail end of last year when touched off by Synchronised and Exmoor Ranger. Song of Songs looks the obvious danger and it's surprising to see AP's choice behind Sunnyhillboy in the betting. Jayo is another who looks interesting and it's a surprise he hasn't been given a bigger weight although he is 2lb worse off with Chapotourgeon since losing to him by 2Ls in November.
0.75pts Victorias Groom 33/1 (WH)
0.5pts Song of Songs 11/1 (WH)
Kim Muir
At this point in the day make a bundle of all your cash and head to the pub unless you really feel sorry about all the cash you've taken off the bookie and feel the need to give something back. If you insist on betting Saphir des Bois is being ridden by a Carr and could surprise others worth looking at might be Buck the Legend and Nina's mount
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Tus maith!
OK by my reckoning a good start to the festival has pushed profits up to +57.78pts even if it was all downhill after the second. We did miss out on some profit by forgetting about the CL last night but hopefully we can put that right today.
Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb
It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.
NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.
RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)
Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.
RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.
0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)
Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)
Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)
Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.
Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.
1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.
2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)
Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb
It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.
NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.
RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)
Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.
RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.
0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)
Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)
Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)
Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.
Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.
1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.
2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
It Begins!
Finally the wait is over and Cheltenham is here. Now I've covered most of the main races already in my previews so I'll leave them out today. That leaves 3 posers to try and figure out on the first day so we'll start with the ladies and see what we can find.
Having originally been trying to figure out what horse would come 3rd in this race I nearly gave up after coming to the conclusion that none of them were good enough to place. That being the case I don't think it is any harm to look at last years 3rd Aura About You who is a big price to run into a place again this year. Normally I would never back a horse having it's seasonal debut but in such a weak race in depth anything close to last years run should see her cover the airfare for her owners. Sway has class but has fallen the last twice, Zarinava needs a flat track and 2m, No One tells Me is slightly flattered by how close she was to VdV at Christmas and Easter Legend just doesn't have the form in the book in my opinion.
In the match between the 2 main contenders I think it is unfair to judge VdV based on a run against Go Native when he clearly needed the run and wasn't going to be beaten around by Carberry. Leaving that aside when you consider Quevega's run here last year and subsequent 3rd to Solwhit at Punchestown she is in my opinion the classier animal. The big downside is the fact that is is her debut. I know no horse has won a Grade 1 on their debut after Christmas for over 20 years - I know this is a grade 2 but.... So I am very tentatively going to side VdV
1pt Aura About You to place 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Voler de Vedette @ 3.2 (Betfair)
In the cross country chase you have to applaud the 10 horse who have turned up with zero chance of featuring to enable us to bet 1/4 odds on 4 places. Only 6 horses worth mentioning here.
Garde Champetre is hard to oppose since falling the first time around this course the only time this horse has been beaten here was when Davy Russell managed to find a short cut (and even then he nearly lost). Weight seems largely irrelevant in this race and a few extra pounds seems unlikely to halt him again.
L'ami is a consistent performer who continues to play second fiddle to stablemate GC. Should place again but of no massive interest bettingwise.
Sizing Australia is a young horse who is gradually edging closer to the favourite at each attempt. Would seem certain to feature and is definitely worth getting on side in one way or another.
Another Jewel is another young horse who picked up a similar race in Punchestown - will be interesting to see how he deals will Cheltenhams different challenge but cannot be written off.
Silver Birch is consistent over these fences but always falls just short and likely to be a similar story again - won't be disgraced but 5th or 6th seems to beckon.
Monkerhostin fills the role of the big name horse that should but doesn't beat a lot of inferior rivals due to not handling the different course. Same Same.
3pt Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Sizing Australia @ 7.4 (Betfair)
2pts place Sizing Australia @ 1.97 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Another Jewel @14/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
And so that brings us to the last race of the first day or the 3rd for those of you looking at the races in chronological order. And for once the bookies more or less seem to have it right. The top 4 in the market are all deserving of their place their and although I expect to see plenty of fallers in this race the only value I can find is the bookies who are kindly paying 5 places instead of 4. As this is the case I see no harm in having a little e/w on the favourite who should jump better today in a race run at a proper pace.
1.5pts e/w Bensalem @ 11/2 (888sport)
Having originally been trying to figure out what horse would come 3rd in this race I nearly gave up after coming to the conclusion that none of them were good enough to place. That being the case I don't think it is any harm to look at last years 3rd Aura About You who is a big price to run into a place again this year. Normally I would never back a horse having it's seasonal debut but in such a weak race in depth anything close to last years run should see her cover the airfare for her owners. Sway has class but has fallen the last twice, Zarinava needs a flat track and 2m, No One tells Me is slightly flattered by how close she was to VdV at Christmas and Easter Legend just doesn't have the form in the book in my opinion.
In the match between the 2 main contenders I think it is unfair to judge VdV based on a run against Go Native when he clearly needed the run and wasn't going to be beaten around by Carberry. Leaving that aside when you consider Quevega's run here last year and subsequent 3rd to Solwhit at Punchestown she is in my opinion the classier animal. The big downside is the fact that is is her debut. I know no horse has won a Grade 1 on their debut after Christmas for over 20 years - I know this is a grade 2 but.... So I am very tentatively going to side VdV
1pt Aura About You to place 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Voler de Vedette @ 3.2 (Betfair)
In the cross country chase you have to applaud the 10 horse who have turned up with zero chance of featuring to enable us to bet 1/4 odds on 4 places. Only 6 horses worth mentioning here.
Garde Champetre is hard to oppose since falling the first time around this course the only time this horse has been beaten here was when Davy Russell managed to find a short cut (and even then he nearly lost). Weight seems largely irrelevant in this race and a few extra pounds seems unlikely to halt him again.
L'ami is a consistent performer who continues to play second fiddle to stablemate GC. Should place again but of no massive interest bettingwise.
Sizing Australia is a young horse who is gradually edging closer to the favourite at each attempt. Would seem certain to feature and is definitely worth getting on side in one way or another.
Another Jewel is another young horse who picked up a similar race in Punchestown - will be interesting to see how he deals will Cheltenhams different challenge but cannot be written off.
Silver Birch is consistent over these fences but always falls just short and likely to be a similar story again - won't be disgraced but 5th or 6th seems to beckon.
Monkerhostin fills the role of the big name horse that should but doesn't beat a lot of inferior rivals due to not handling the different course. Same Same.
3pt Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Sizing Australia @ 7.4 (Betfair)
2pts place Sizing Australia @ 1.97 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Another Jewel @14/1 (VC, Paddy Power)
And so that brings us to the last race of the first day or the 3rd for those of you looking at the races in chronological order. And for once the bookies more or less seem to have it right. The top 4 in the market are all deserving of their place their and although I expect to see plenty of fallers in this race the only value I can find is the bookies who are kindly paying 5 places instead of 4. As this is the case I see no harm in having a little e/w on the favourite who should jump better today in a race run at a proper pace.
1.5pts e/w Bensalem @ 11/2 (888sport)
Saturday, 13 March 2010
Back on Track
OK going to start this weekends wrap in the unusual spot of Doha for the World Indoor Champs. The bookies seem to underestimate the edge you have on an indoor track over 400m if you can get drawn in the outside 2 lanes. If you are drawn wide you take the 2 turns before the break less tightly than those inside you. This allows you build up momentum and means that when the beak comes at the 200m mark you should be able to have taken a lead which due to the nature of the track is harder to pull back than in your standard outdoor 400m race.
3pts Jackson to win Mens 400m @ evens (Paddy Power): Irelands David Gillick is kind of making the market here. It is unfortunate for him that he had to check his stride going into the 3rd bend in yesterdays semi-final - something which cost him 1st in his heat (just) and landed him in lane 3 denying him what would have been a favourites chance at gold here. Jackson is no certainty but with a nice outside draw you would fancy this hurdler to take full advantage and get a good position off the break leaving a lot to do for the other challengers.
3pts Debbie Dunn to the Womens 400m @ 11/10 (Boyles): barely broke a sweat winning her semi last night and with 3 400m races in 2 days that combined with her nice draw makes this bet irresistable.
1pt e/w Are You the One in 1.05 Limerick @ 7/2 (Paddy Power): can take advantage of any weakness this very highly hyped favourite has
1pt e/w King Edmund in 4.15 Sandown @ 5/1 (Sportingodds): Both him and the favourite are classy horses who lost nithing in defeat against Long Run and Punchestown respectively the last time out. I think the bare 2 miles will suit King Edmund better with Tchico Polos racing over longer recently. Also there is value in the race due to the prominence of Joe Jo Star in the betting based on him beating King Edmind the last day - however KE was beaten because he fought with Long Run for so oong and eventually paid the price. My main concern would actually be that after only 4 weeks this race is coming too soon after such a hard race for our selection, however as most of his rivals are in similar situations we will overlook that this once.
1.5pts Burnley @7/5 (totesport, Coral): I think the true price here should be about 11/10 - 6/5. Both teams have the same amount of points and every point in games like this is crucial to both sides. Burnley have relied on their home form to ensure there is still some hope of surviving at this stage and they can prevail again at home.
3pts Jackson to win Mens 400m @ evens (Paddy Power): Irelands David Gillick is kind of making the market here. It is unfortunate for him that he had to check his stride going into the 3rd bend in yesterdays semi-final - something which cost him 1st in his heat (just) and landed him in lane 3 denying him what would have been a favourites chance at gold here. Jackson is no certainty but with a nice outside draw you would fancy this hurdler to take full advantage and get a good position off the break leaving a lot to do for the other challengers.
3pts Debbie Dunn to the Womens 400m @ 11/10 (Boyles): barely broke a sweat winning her semi last night and with 3 400m races in 2 days that combined with her nice draw makes this bet irresistable.
1pt e/w Are You the One in 1.05 Limerick @ 7/2 (Paddy Power): can take advantage of any weakness this very highly hyped favourite has
1pt e/w King Edmund in 4.15 Sandown @ 5/1 (Sportingodds): Both him and the favourite are classy horses who lost nithing in defeat against Long Run and Punchestown respectively the last time out. I think the bare 2 miles will suit King Edmund better with Tchico Polos racing over longer recently. Also there is value in the race due to the prominence of Joe Jo Star in the betting based on him beating King Edmind the last day - however KE was beaten because he fought with Long Run for so oong and eventually paid the price. My main concern would actually be that after only 4 weeks this race is coming too soon after such a hard race for our selection, however as most of his rivals are in similar situations we will overlook that this once.
1.5pts Burnley @7/5 (totesport, Coral): I think the true price here should be about 11/10 - 6/5. Both teams have the same amount of points and every point in games like this is crucial to both sides. Burnley have relied on their home form to ensure there is still some hope of surviving at this stage and they can prevail again at home.
1pt Aston Villa @ 2.44 (Betfair): Very slightly too big a price on a Villa team with a lot more to play for than a dogged Stoke team that seem to be secure from relegation. With Man City and Liverpool not playing until tomorrow Villa will need to turn their games in hand into points to keep up the pressure on the other teams in the fight for 4th.
1pt Blackburn @ 8/1 (VC): I really am in two minds as to whether to back Rovers or lay Spurs. The 4/9 on Spurs seems very short especially given their injury worries. Whichever you prefer yourself I would suggest but Spurs need to be opposed. I am going to go with a Rovers win and hope for the scoop!
1.5pts Birmingham @ 9/4 (VC): People seem to have over-reacted to Everton's good form and Birmingham's slump. Nothing between these sides in the table, nothing major between them on goal diff (a very good indicator of false positions in the table) so why are B'ham 9/4 at home? Take a chance that Everton won't be scoring for fun again and that B'ham can grind out another result.
2pts Draw - Sevilla v Depor @ 11/4 (Boyles, Hills, tote): 5th v 6th promises to be a tight affair. With goals at a premium this looks much too big on these sides playing out a stalemate. The 5/1 on Depor edging it is also slightly tempting but we'll stick all our cash on the draw here as the best value.
1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 7/2 (Skybet): Despite his heroic efforts not to deliver midweek, we will give him a chance to redeem himself against a team with 5 goals and 4 points in the last 10 games.
1pt Wales @ 5.0 (Betfair): I think Ireland will just about win this but the difference in prices is much too big. Result have been a harsh reflection on the Welsh performances so far and I expect they will give us a proper game today. As for the other game I'm sure there are re-runs of Neighbours or Judge Judy on that will allow you avoid watching that misery.
4pts Denman w/o Kauto @ 7/4 (Celtic): Lunacy - has somebody cut off one of Denmans legs without it making the headlines?
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